What happened Friday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; little retail rate activity, FHBs restrained, consumers don't see recovery, neither does labour market, NZ mapped in 3D, gold at record high, swaps stable, NZD soft, & more

28th Mar 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Only the Nelson Building Society cut its short term TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FHBs RESTRAINED
First home buyers may have been a steady presence in the housing market over the last 12 months, but falling interest rates are not having much effect on the amount first home buyers are paying for a home.

RECOVERY NOT OBVIOUS TO CONSUMERS
Inflation expectations climb to 4.2% in latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey, as consumer confidence drops. However, ANZ says while it doesn't currently feel like it, the the economy is ‘improving under the hood’.

RECOVERY LAGS IN THE LABOUR MARKET
StatsNZ review of the IRD payroll data suggests that employment was flat to slightly negative in February. Sectors that are linked to international tourism, such as transport, hospitality and recreational services, have been rising. These areas are now increasingly being joined by sectors such as retail, finance and even public sector administration. Meanwhile, there continues to be substantial job losses in the highly-cyclical construction and manufacturing sectors, along with professional services. The working-age population is still on the rise (around +0.3% per quarter), and that suggests a further rise in the unemployment rate in the near term. Westpac things it will peak at 5.4% this year. It ended 2024 at 5.1%.

NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall index is up +0.2% which makes the weekly change +1.8%, the year-to-date change down -5.6%, and the change from this time last year up +1.9%. Gentrack, Contact Energy, a2 Milk, and The Warehouse are the gainers, with Kathmandu, Vulcan Steel, Heartland, and Serko the main decliners.

WESTPAC NZ CONFIRMS CFO & CRO
Westpac NZ has confirmed Stephen O’Brien as Chief Risk Officer and James Grant as Chief Financial Officer, effective April 1. Both are currently serving in the roles in an acting capacity.

NZ MAPPED IN 3D
LINZ says most of New Zealand has now been mapped in 3D, creating a rich dataset for economic planning, land management and modelling for risk. For example Councils are using the data to check runoff and nutrient retention, shade and ultraviolet protection, and landscape aesthetics. Councils may also use the data for compliance monitoring such as identification of excessive earthworks and quarrying, tree removal, or building activity across the regions. The data is now here.

OPEN BANKING REGULATIONS NEAR
Following the passing of the Customer and Product Data Bill, regulations will be confirmed in coming weeks with open banking set to be "operational" by year's end, well before the Commerce Commission's June 2026 target, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Scott Simpson says. He says the electricity sector will be next, enabling open electricity, with possibilities for other sectors to follow.

CONFIRMED
The Australian federal election will now be on Saturday, May 3, 2025. Enhanced disinformation is sure to flow more intensely now.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.62% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.52% today. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.87%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.71% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.68% and up another +2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35% and unchanged from yesterday. Their 2yr is lower at 3.99%, so that positive curve is now at +35 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.2% in late Friday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -2.2% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.2%, while Shanghai is down -0.3% at its open. Singapore has opened down -0.1%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Thursday with a -0.3% dip, on more policy news that seems chaotic.

OIL UNCHNAGED
The oil price is little-changed from this time yesterday and now just under US$70/bbl in the US, and just on US$74/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE TURNS UP
The carbon price is up +$2/NZU today and back at NZ$59/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HITS NEW RECORD
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$45 from yesterday, now at US$3072/oz and a new record high.

NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 53 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just on 66.8 and down a bit less than -20 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN STILL ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is down -0.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$87,231. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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17 Comments

by J.C. | 28th Mar 25, 4:14pm 1743131669

In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$45 from yesterday, now at US$3072/oz and a new record high.

Water cooler buddy was saying about the gold price that 'you couldn't make this sh*t up.' I said 'for sure, just months ago JPM reckoned the price might get to USD2,800k in 2026. If you're lucky.'

I then mentioned that the gold price has more or less been moving up in a straight line adding a whopping $7 trillion in market cap in 12 months [current mkt cap around 20 trillion from 13 trillion 12 months ago]. Charts look like a God candle.

in 2025, gold up virtually every week - .gold +16% vs bonds (+2%), stocks (flat), crypto (-7%).

Does this ever happen in a “healthy” economy?

by powerdownkiwi | 28th Mar 25, 7:34pm 1743143646

No.

by Threecents | 28th Mar 25, 9:48pm 1743151680

My 3 cents. An unhealthy global economy is somewhat secondary to what is occurring. Some precious metals (PM) commentators are predicting this price action over the last 12+ months is a sign that the 50+ year PM price management scheme (aided by the futures markets and gold leasing) is coming to an end.

There are reports of large quantities of gold returning from the UK to the US in the last 3+ months. Separately, numerous non-western aligned countries (the BRICS included) have been buying physical gold to diversify their reserves. Apparently the action taken by the US (& allies) in freezing Russian foreign reserves in 2023 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine led some central banks to decide to hold metal and avoid losing access to any $US reserves (in the event they were the subject of similar actions/sanctions etc).

Currently the bullion banks still seem to be controlling the PM prices albeit in some sort of controlled retreat with a gradual increase in price.

by J.C. | 28th Mar 25, 10:05pm 1743152742

Currently the bullion banks still seem to be controlling the PM prices albeit in some sort of controlled retreat with a gradual increase in price.

Word on the street is that the bullion banks are losing control of the price of PMs.

by Threecents | 28th Mar 25, 10:44pm 1743155041

Perhaps, the $45 price rise today was not normal. However when we see daily price rises of $100/day (or the gold & silver future markets close) then we'll know they have lost control.

by J.C. | 28th Mar 25, 6:00pm 1743138014

Japanese Bitcoin Treasury company Metaplanet Inc. is down 90%+....in a single day. Can't see any news as to why and wonder if this a trading platform error. Has never done this before and doesn't make sense.

Explained: Data error. 10 for 1 stock split.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TSE-3350/

by J.C. | 28th Mar 25, 5:34pm 1743136479

The mighty Chris Joye points out that thanks to the RBA, the Aussie Ponzi is alive and well. You can't keep a good thing down when the kitchen sink is thrown at it. Anyway, an interesting snippet here:

Researchers at Antipodean Macro highlight that three public sectors – healthcare, education and public administration– have accounted for a remarkable 57 per cent of all Australian jobs growth over the past two years.

And we know that public sector spending as a share of gross domestic product is also around its highest level since World War II. The corollary is that public, not private, demand in Australia is artificially keeping unemployment lower than its natural level, which is slowing the return of inflation to the mid-point of the RBA’s target band. Put another way, interest rates in Australia would be a lot lower were it not for all this political pork-barrelling.

The problems with such imprudence are demonstrably worse among state governments, which are now issuing more debt to pay for their spending promises than their federal counterparts.

Interestingly, Donald Trump and Elon Musk are very much focused on addressing these same dysfunctions by slashing government spending to put downwards pressure on inflation and rates while also paying for tax cuts. Sadly, there does not seem to be much evidence of any appetite to emulate these efforts in Australia.

https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/housing-market-recovery-gathers-st…

by IT GUY | 28th Mar 25, 5:45pm 1743137116

Like the elephant standing on a turtle.......

Its deficit's all the way down

by profile | 28th Mar 25, 7:15pm 1743142550

Government - the great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money. Goldman Sachs must be peeved.

by powerdownkiwi | 28th Mar 25, 7:38pm 1743143905

Wrong.

As per usual.

Government is us. It's not there to suck 'money', it's there to do things that we all benefit from. As a society.

But it is in trouble, you'll be pleased to know. Reducing EROEI coupled with entropy are the causes.

Nothing much to do with money...

by singautim | 28th Mar 25, 8:20pm 1743146405

Entropy - lack of order or predictability; gradual decline into disorder.

EROI, or Energy Return on Investment

Both have been around since man (probably woman) lit the first fire. So why do they matter now? There are laws of physic that explain how the first steam engine was incredibly inefficient (from memory 0.25% in 1800) and it improved with better design (Ref Robert Stevenson) but improvements were limited by the physics law of entropy (from memory ~20% for a steam engine). But the age of steam has passed. That definition of entropy sounds like my brain but even that will be replaced by a new and probably more complex one. Surely ecology teaches us things left alone tend to get more complicated; collapse may happen but it is unusual.

The argument that we have finite resources is irrefutable. It's terrifying that in my lifetime the percentage of animals that were domesticated went from under 50% to over 99%. Humans are destroying the planet. But entropy is either irrelevant to the argument or just a means of confusing the argument.

by kiwikidsnz | 28th Mar 25, 9:25pm 1743150309

Domesticated animals rarely go extinct though

by Let me be Frank | 28th Mar 25, 7:38pm 1743143884

"Put another way, interest rates in Australia would be a lot lower were it not for all this political pork-barrelling."

Would they be?...by what mechanism?

by kiwikidsnz | 28th Mar 25, 9:23pm 1743150181

Seriously? It's spelled out in the linked extract. Join the dots.

"...three public sectors – healthcare, education and public administration– have accounted for a remarkable 57 per cent of all Australian jobs growth over the past two years."

"...public, not private, demand in Australia is artificially keeping unemployment lower than its natural level, which is slowing the return of inflation to the mid-point of the RBA’s target band. "

Lower employment - lower demand - price restraint - lower inflation - lower interest rates

by Let me be Frank | 29th Mar 25, 7:04am 1743185091

And if your CPI inflation is imported?....how then your does employment rate impact that?....we have witnessed first hand the disconnect between inflation, interest rates and employment in recent years...have a look at the comparative NZ and Aussie stats.....we are in a globally connected economy with largely unfettered capital movement and central banks have much less control of monetary factors than is widely believed....what drives interest rates is what future return is anticipated and that is a function of 'growth'....something that is relying increasingly on monetary factors rather than output, and is therefore less reliant on employment, either in the public or private sector.

It will however all end in tears.

by kiwikidsnz | 29th Mar 25, 9:15am 1743192949

Over the last couple of years most ANZ inflation is non tradeables particularly domestic services, (the tradeables import covid blip was short & temporary, an outlier to the last couple of decades trend & aggravated by the deteriorated exchange rate)

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/drop-domestic-inflation-hailed%C2%A…

https://www.acuitymag.com/opinion/high-inflation-in-australia-and-nz-fo…

by Let me be Frank | 29th Mar 25, 10:19am 1743196766

'Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"....Friedman

The reality has been (for both Australia and NZ) the inflation has been in assets in recent decades.

If the Oz government hadnt hired those 'excess staff' but instead used their budget to purchase private services/goods would that have been more inflationary or less?

Freidman's point holds.