A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; Kiwibank & ANZ make retail rate changes, 'mountain' of houses for sale, a shift back to longer home loan fixed rates, new car sales weak, swaps hold, NZD drops, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank trimmed its six month rate today (matching Bank of China), and raised its two year fixed rate and well above the 4.99% prevailing in many other bank rate cards. All rates are here.

BUSINESS BASE RATE CHANGES
ANZ cut -15 bps from each of its Business base Indicator rate, its Agri Current Account rate, and its Buisness Overdraft rate.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank cut all its TD rates for terms of 1 year and less, some by as much as -20 bps. These new levels are now very similar to the other main banks. Heretaunga Building Society pushed through some more small trimmings. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here. Update: ASB cut its SavingsPlus rates by -25 bps today.

DROWNING IN 'CHOICE'
There is now a mountain of housing stock for sale on the market as the summer selling season ends. The housing market heads towards winter with stock levels at a 10-year high. Realestate.co.nz's portal had 45,048 residential properties listed at midday today. OneRoof had "more than 49,000, and TradeMe Property had 49,205. Many will be the same property listed on each portal, but these levels have stayed high for most of the current selling season.

LONG IS STRONG
The latest RBNZ figures show a split between mortgage holders opting to go for floating rates and those pushing out to longer fixed terms. It seems two-year fixed mortgage terms back in vogue.

CAR SALES UP, BUT WEAK
New car sales were up +11.9% in March from the same month a year ago. But March 2024 was an unusually soft standard. Compared to the average of the prior five Marchs (skipping March 2020), the 2025 level was more than -16% below that. Used imports were especially weak, down -19% from a year ago, down almost -50% on the on the same prior five year average. There were 145 new Teslas sold in March (24% of all new EVs sold), all sourced from China, up from 85 in February (also all from China) (16% EV share in February).

NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down another -0.7% and there is now no weekly change. The year-to-date change down -6.8%, and the change from this time last year is now only +0.8%. From here on out we will be reported growing year-on-year reductions. Hallensteins, Heartland, Mainfreight, and Channel Infrastructure have the biggest gains as Tower, Tourism Holdings, Gentrack, and Manawa are the top decliners.

EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
There is another full diary auction tomorrow morning, and mixed results are anticipated by the dairy futures market. They see the SMP price essentially holding. But they also see the WMP price falling and quite sharply. Expected is up to a -6% fall from the prior full event two weeks ago, and almost -5% from last week's Pulse event. If we do get drops like this, they will exercise analysts minds. Almost certainly the WMP track will put an ended to any farmgate payout upside.

ITS NOT ONLY ALLIANCE THAT IS STRUGGLING
It is not only Alliance that is struggling as a meat processor. Fellow co-operative Silver Fern Farms is too. They have posted a -$10.9 mln loss after tax. Silver Fern Farms Limited, the 50/50 JV posted a -$21.8 mln loss after tax, with revenue decreasing -$144 million on the previous year to $2.64 bln. Non-cooperative meat processors seem to be faring quite well in contrast, although to be fair, their results are nowhere near as transparent.

CDS SPREADS RISE
For the record, we should note that the CDS (credit default swap) rate for Australian sovereign debt has jumped recently. after falling consistently since early 2023. It had fallen to record lows in December 2024, and is up off them now. (There is no longer equivalent CDS spread data for New Zealand, except for subscribers.)

AUSSIE RETAIL IS STRUGGLING
February retail sales in Australia were ho-hum, up +0.2% from January. That puts them essentially unchanged from the same month in 2024. So after inflation, that means they are -2.4% lower on a volume basis.

EYES ON THE RBA
The Reserve Bank of Australia will review its cash rate target at 4:30 pm today. It is currently 4.10%, and no change is anticipated until after the federal election is over. But you never know. The RBA has a long history of surprising markets. Those markets do expect a -25 bps cut at the subsequent review on May 20, 2025. But a lot could change following how the US punishes Australia with tariffs - for what, is unclear. But they are bracing.

'LOOSEN THE GUARDRAILS'
And staying in Australia, the main opposition party has adopted a policy to force their regulators to ease up on prudential lending constraints on banks. The will direct the financial regulator to reduce mortgage buffers when assessing loans.

MOVING UP
Although still modest, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose in March from February’s small positive, with a result that was better than market expectations. This marked the highest reading since last November, with output growth accelerating on the back of a sustained rise in new orders amid better demand conditions.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today at the short end, but recovering some for longer terms. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.61% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.42% today in a minor bounce after yesterday's big drop. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.86%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.66% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.61% and up +5 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.21% and unchanged from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is up +2 bps at 3.89%, so that positive curve is now at a tad lower +32 bps.

EQUITIES IN PARTIAL RECOVERY
The NZX50 is down -0.7% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade however. Tokyo has opened up +0.5% in early Tuesday trade in a small bounce from Monday's big selloff. Hong Kong is up +0.5%, while Shanghai is up +0.3% at its open, both helped by the Caixin PMI report. Singapore has opened down -0.4%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 rose +0.6% in Monday trade..

OIL JUMPS
The oil price is up +US$2.50 from this time yesterday and now just over US$71.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$74.50/bbl for the international Brent price. Trump sabre-rattling at Russia is behind the change.

CARBON PRICE TURNS DOWN AGAIN
The carbon price is down -$1/NZU today and back at NZ$56/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HITS NEW RECORD, AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$42 from this time yesterday, now at US$3134/oz and another new record high.

NZD SOFTER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday at 56.7 USc but essentially unchanged from this morning. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down another -30 bps at 52.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 66.4 and down -30 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN STILL ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is up a minor +0.8% from this time yesterday, now at US$82,711. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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