Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB cut short rates, and two at the very long end. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MORE SUPPLY
There has been a surge in new housing completions in Auckland at the start of 2025, setting a new record for the month of January.
MORE OVERCHARGING
The FMA has filed court proceedings against IAG NZ for allegedly overcharging 269,000 customers $35 million, breaching the Financial Markets Conduct Act. It is another self-reported case.
WHEN WE WERE LAST AT THIS LEVEL ...
Today the one year swap rate could be at 3.20% and that takes them back to April 2022 levels. And back then, the OCR was 1.50%, one year home loan rates were 3.95% and one year term deposit rates were 2.50%. Just saying ...
NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.1% and the weekly change is now -0.7%. Year-to-date it is down -6.6%, and the change from this time last year is now +1.4%. Decliners dominated led by Gentrack and Skellerup. Among the few gainers were Heartland, Meridian, and Contact. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare was down -2.8%.
UNINSPIRING
In Australia, data out today on household spending shows a small +0.2% rise in February from January, but a -0.6% dip from February 2024.
THEY DUG THEMSELVES A HOLE ... TO QUCKSAND
We should also note that the US dollar fell -2.2% on April 3 (US time) and this is reputed to be the largest one-day fall ever for the greenback. Since the week after Inauguration Day, it has fallen a massive -7.4%. Although the current Administration may dismiss it as barely relevant, and a help for American exporters, it is really important for the stability of the inward capital flows they depend on. They are now at risk, right at the time inflation is expected to zoom, another factor that will undermine those flows. Without them the greenback could sink further and faster, accentuating economic instability. What will the Fed do? It is a key question for them and any remedy is unlikely to be favoured by the President. They don't formally meet until May 8 (NZ time), but you can be sure they are huddling now and watching closely. We will be watching the tone of Fed speakers in the longsih period until they go embargo quiet before that meeting.
ARE THEY COMING FOR OUR BIOSECURITY PROTECTIONS?
In a CNN interview, Trump's Commerce Secretary took aim at Australia's biosecurity protections, calling them a tariff by another name. That probably means they are coming for our biosecurity protections too. This could well be a defining spat between New Zealand and the USA.
SWAP RATES DROP HARD
Wholesale swap rates are probably a lot lower today following bond yields down, maybe by as much as -10 bps. Even the short rates are lower. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.59% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps at 4.23% to new lower levels. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.79%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -8 bps at 4.42% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.39% and down -4 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.01% and down -6 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is down -15 bps at 3.66%, so that positive curve has now jumped to +35 bps.
EQUITIES REACT TO TARIFF DETAILS
The NZX50 is down -1.1% in late Friday trade, as the tariff news sinks in. The ASX200 is down -1.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down another -2.5% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.5%, while Shanghai is down -0.2% at its open. Singapore has opened down -1.9%, a very large drop for them. On Wall Street, the S&P500 was down -4.8% in Thursday trade, and the overall American equity market shed more than -US2.5 tln. Poof! Pretty soon you'll be talking about real money.
VOLATILITY WATCH
A key metric we are watching is the VIX volatility index. It is now its highest since the brief August 5, 2024 Japanese stock market crash. And prior to the elevated pandemic period, the highest since the GFC.
OIL DROPS
The oil price is -US$3.50 softer from this time yesterday and now just over US$66.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$70/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DROPS FURTHER
The carbon price is down another -50c/NZU today and now at NZ$54/NZU. It hasn't been this low since August 2024. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DROPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$46 from this time yesterday, now at US$3108/oz.
NZD FIRMS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday at 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 52.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 67.2 and up +20 bps from yesterday at this time.
BITCOIN EASES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is down a net -1.4% from this time yesterday, now at US$82,704. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.
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