A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Kiwibank joins the others at 4.99%, IRD intensifies it audit activity, more dwellings for renters; markets fall further, swaps drop, NZD weak, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank cut its 2 year rate to 4.99%, matching eight others, including all the other main banks. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union trimmed two short rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

IRD MORE 'EFFICIENT'
The IRD is saying their Increased tax compliance work has resulted in a noticeable increase in audit activity. In the first half of the financial year, from July to December 2024, they opened 3,600 audit, +50% more than the same period on 2023. They uncovered $600 mln of additional tax that should have been declared. Follow the link for much more detail, including that for undeclared crypto profits.

BIG SWITCH
There were +7,100 more private dwellings added in Q1-2025 from the prior quarter, +32,500 added in the year. But only +2800 were for owner occupiers, +4200 were rented, and +100 were provided free. That is sharpy different to the Q1-2023 (two years ago) when +11,200 owner-occupied dwellings were added, +3100 for renters, and -900 were lost to those provided free.

"ROBUST FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT & A WEALTHY ECONOMY"
Ratings agency S&P says the expect Auckland Council's deficits after capital accounts to narrow to less than 10% of total revenue and its debt levels to decline when it separates its water utility, Watercare. Auckland's strong economy and liquidity, along with experienced management, will support its creditworthiness during this transition. So they have affirmed its rate at AA with a 'Stable' outlook.

NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -2.9% and the weekly change is now -3.5%. Year-to-date it is down -9.4%, and the change from this time last year is now -1.1%. Manawa Energy is the sole gainer within the NZX50, with Vulcan Steel, Vista Group, Gentrack, and Mainfreight topping the decliners. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -3.5% so far today. More here.

DEEPER HOLE
In Australia, their pre-election Budget update is out. The underlying cash deficit in the 12 months ending June 30 will be AU$28 bln, swelling to AU$42 bln through June 2026, they now say. That's going from -1.0% of GDP to -1.5% of GDP. "[The] escalation in trade hostilities has created significant economic uncertainty and exacerbates the risks to the economic and fiscal outlook", they say.

WHAT IS WARREN DOING?
Legendary investor Warren Buffett famously said "we are fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful". It turns out he was a major net seller of equities in 2024 and now sits on a US$334 bln pile of 'cash'. (NZ$650 bln). But is he a buyer now? Not many think he will be. He will wait and wait, maybe until Trump is gone.

SWAP RATES DROP AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably a lot lower again today following bond yields down, maybe by as much as another -8 bps. Even the short rates are lower. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -5 bps at 3.54% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.17% to new lower levels. The China 10 year bond rate is down -15 bps at 1.64% and a huge move for them. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.41% from this morning while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.28% and down -11 bps from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 3.92% and down -8 bps from this morning's open. Their 2yr is down -13 bps at 3.53%, so that positive curve has now jumped to +39 bps.

EQUITIES REACT TO TARIFF DETAILS
The NZX50 is down -2.9% in late Monday trade. The ASX200 is down -3.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down another -6.5% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is down -9.3%, while Shanghai is down -5.6% at its open. Singapore has opened down -6.3%, a very large drop for them. On Wall Street, the S&P500 was down -6.0% in Friday trade, and the futures trade suggests it will open tomorrow down -2.1%.

OIL DROPS FURTHER ON DEMAND PROSPECTS
The oil price is -US$1.50 lower from this morning's open and now just under US$60.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$64/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STOPS FALLING
The carbon price is up +$1/NZU today and now at NZ$55/NZU, although still near its recent low. The EU carbon permit price is falling too, now down to 64 (NZ$124). The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$5 from this morning's open, now at US$3032/oz.

NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this morning at 55.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged from this morning at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 65.7 and down -10 bps from where we opened this morning.

BITCOIN FALLS FURTHER, FASTER
The bitcoin price is down a net -3.2% from where we opened this morning, now at US$78,507. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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