A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; no fixed rate mortgage changes, slightly smaller households, trucks busy, pyramid scam alert, China in deflation, swaps waver, NZD jumps, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no fixed rate changes to report yet, despite the sharp fall in swap rates recently. But more banks have trimmed their test rates slightly, but that is only helpful for borrowers at the margins. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
China Construction Bank, and Kernel both cut TD or savings rates today. Update: So did Cooperative Bank. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HOUSEHOLD UPDATES
Updated 2023 census data shows a population makeup where households in occupied private dwellings were almost four-fifths (79.1%) European, a decrease, and almost one-fifth (19.3%) were Māori, 17.2% were Asian, and 7.8% were Pacific peoples. On average there were 2.7 people per household broken down by 4.0 people per household for Pacific peoples, 3.3 people in Māori households, also 3.3 people in Asian households, and 2.6 people in European households.

CLASS ACTION LAWYER HITS OUT AT POLITICAL INTERFERENCE
Scott Russell, the lawyer involved in a class action lawsuit against ANZ and ASB, is criticising the Government's proposed amendment to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA). Russell says the amendment represents "unprecedented political interference with the judicial process," and specifically targets an ongoing class action filed four years ago "by effectively changing the rules mid-litigation." The class action follows admissions by the banks that they failed to comply with CCCFA disclosure requirements following a Commerce Commission investigation. Russell says it's "clearly a targeted intervention to amend the law to benefit two powerful Australian-owned banks at the expense of thousands of everyday New Zealand consumers."

TRUCKS BUSY BUT NO GROWTH INDICATED
The March update of the ANZ truckometer monitoring suggests that economic activity is very flat. But the tracking does show growth in heavy transport activity.

NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is following other markets in a sharp relief rally and it up +3.4%. That means it is down -1.0% for the past week, down -6.6% since the start of the year, and up +2.0% from this time last year. There are 74 gainers today and only 13 decliners. The gainers are led by Mainfreight, up +8.5%, Synlait up +6.9%, Vulcan Steel up +6.9% and Gentrack up +5.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +5.5%. The losers are all minnows, except Goodman Property which is down -0.4%.

PYRAMID SCAM ALERT
The Commerce Commission is urging consumers to be wary of opportunities that seem too good to be true, after two individuals pleaded guilty in the Manukau District Court to charges related to the promotion of a pyramid scheme which targeted the Pasifika community in South Auckland.

PROGRESS UNDONE
In March Australian inflation expectations fell to 3.6%, a four year low. But in April they jumped back up to 4.2% underscoring the ongoing uncertainty surrounding their domestic economic outlook and inflation trajectory in the face of fallout from the tariff war. Given they have both a jobs, and an inflation mandate, the RBA is in for a tricky period ahead with its policy choices.

PRODUCER PRICE INFLATION
Japanese producer inflation is rising, now its highest since mid-2023. Producer prices there rose +4.2% in March from the same month a year ago, above market estimates of 3.9%. It was their 49th straight month of producer inflation, with cost rising further for most components

DEFLATION DOUBLE DIP
In China, they not only have to fight off the US tariff policies, they have a resurgence of domestic deflation issues. Their March CPI fell -0.1% when a +0.1% was anticipated. Their PPI fell -2.5% when a -2.3% retreat was anticipated. On the consumer price front, food prices are -0.6% lower than a year ago, of which beef prices fell -10.8% and lamb -5.4%. Milk prices fell -1.7% on the same basis. They want to shift to a consumer-based society, but in the meantime their existing export sector is going to take major hits which will affect consumption, and there seems little upside to consumer demand in the current circumstances. Their "over-capacity" is going to expose them. You wonder if they have any more appetite for capitalism's "creative destruction" than Western economies, who have proven to have virtually none.

QUOTE UPDATE
We added this quote from historian Arnold Toynbee today that seems prescient for what a 2025 Trump is doing in the US. "Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder."

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end today out to three years, and lower over longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.48% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.32%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -11 bps at 4.69% from this time yesterday while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.67% and up +8 bps from Wednesday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28% and down -9 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is up +14 bps at 3.87%, so that positive curve has now moved back to +41 bps.

EQUITIES IN RELIEF RALLY
The NZX50 is up +3.4% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is up +4.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +8.3% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is up +3.0%, while Shanghai is up +1.0% at its open. Singapore has opened up an unusual +5.2%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 was up an outsized +9.5% in Wednesday trade on wishful hopes that Trump had come to his senses. If I could talk to those investors, I have a bridge I could sell them ...

OIL RECOVERS
The oil price is back up +US$4 from this time yesterday and now just over US$61.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$64.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
The carbon price is unchanged today at NZ$54.50/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD JUMPS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$118 from this time yesterday, now at US$3121/oz and a new record high. Gold is playing its role as a safe haven from public policy craziness.

NZD JUMPS
The Kiwi dollar is up +120 bps from this time yesterday at 56.6 USc as the greenback sank. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps from yesterday at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are up +130 bps at 51.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up at 66.2 and a +90 bps rise. At first glance this looks like a commodity rally. But a big gainer is the Japanese yen on safe haven demand. So perhaps the NZD and AUD are getting some of that.

BITCOIN RECOVERS
The bitcoin price is up +8.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$82,126. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been extreme at just on +/- 5.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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