A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; not seeing housing market upturn yet, food prices rise, real-time GDP tool launched, holidays more expensive, swaps stable, NZD rises, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
So far, no other bank has followed ANZ with fixed rate cuts. Details here. Update: Kiwibank has trimmed their 6 month and 1 year fixed rates. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
And no other bank has cut term deposit rates in the same way ANZ has. Details here. Update: Kiwibank has cut all its term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE DCS IS ALMOST HERE
We have a detailed explainer about the Deposit Compensation Scheme (DCS) with comes into force on July 1, 2025, just 75 days from today, and well within the expiry date of most term deposits.

MORE HOUSES SOLD, AT LOWER PRICES
The REINZ says house sales volumes rose in March but selling prices were down, under pressure from the sheer weight of new listings. So there is still no clear turnaround in the residential property market yet.

FOOD PRICES CLIMB
Grocery and beverage costs push March food prices up +3.5% overall from a year ago and to a 14 month high. Meat, chicken and fish are up +5.3% on the same basis, fruit drinks and soft drinks are up +5.0%. However fruit and vegetables were down -2.7% from a year ago. Despite this, the overall rise is basically what the RBNZ expected.

OTHER PRICES CLIMB TOO
We also got a look at some other elements that will go into the Q1-2025 CPI data out on Thursday. Rents are up +3.3% from a year ago. Petrol prices fell -2% in March, reflecting falls in global oil prices, domestic airfares were up +2%, while international airfares were down -4%, both largely as expected. The cost of an overseas holiday was up nearly +9%, much more than expected. That likely reflects the lower NZ dollar.

NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% today. That means it is up +1.4% for the past week, but down -7.7% since the start of the year, and up +1.2% from this time last year. There are 32 gainers, led by Ryman (2.0%), Vulcan Steel (+1.8%), Chorus (+1.0%) and Investore (also +1.0%). There are 44 decliners, led by NZME (-6.4%), Serko (-1.9%), Vista (-1.7%) and AirNZ (also down -1.7%). Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare was down -1.0% at 3pm today.

REAL-TIME ESTIMATES FROM HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA
The RBNZ has launched a real-time GDP estimating tool, Kiwi-GDP. The new tool will forecast quarterly economic activity based on high frequency data.

STATING THE OBVIOUS
Hardly surprising, but S&P Global says that the new US tariffs place GM and Ford at risk of a ratings downgrade which would raise the cost of their borrowed funds. They say the tariffs on vehicles, components, steel and aluminium will push US car prices up by as much as +10% and that will in turn depress sales volumes by as much as 1 mln vehicles over two years. Higher costs will make US vehicles even less competitive in export markets.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end today again. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.49% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -9 bps at 4.32%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down a sharp -15 bps at 4.67% from this time yesterday while today's RBNZ fix was also at 4.67% and down -14 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35% and down -12 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is down -10 bps at 3.84%, so that positive curve is now less at +51 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.9% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is unchanged, while Shanghai is down -0.3% at its open. Singapore has opened up +1.5% in a further recovery. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Monday up +0.8% in volatile trade.

OIL RISES SLIGHTLY
The oil price is up +50 USc from yesterday and now just over US$61.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$65/bbl for the international Brent price. The falling USD is behind this adjustment.

CARBON PRICE DIPS FURTHER
The carbon price is -$1 lower today, now at NZ$53/NZU. That is its lowest since August 2024. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIPS FROM HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$14 from this time morning, now at US$3220/oz.

NZD RISES FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is up another +60 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.1 USc as the greenback eases again. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps from yesterday at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +70 bps at 52.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up at 67.6 and a +60 bps rise from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN STILL ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is down -0.4% from this time yesterday, now at US$84,925. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».