A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday: the flood of retail rate changes continues, CPI at 2.5%, job ad activity limp, Tourism Holdings hammered, swaps stable, gold rises further, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB led today's home loan rate cuts, but there were also reductions from the Bank of China, ICBC, and Kookmin Bank. Details here. The Cooperative Bank cut all its fixed rates too. As did Westpac. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There were many more term deposit rate cuts from many institutions today. We have summarised them here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE DCS IS ALMOST HERE
We have a detailed explainer about the Deposit Compensation Scheme (DCS) with comes into force on July 1, 2025, just 74 days from today, and well within the expiry date of most term deposits.

NO TRADABLE INFLATION, BUT NON-TRADABLE INFLATION AT 4%
Annual inflation rose to 2.5% in the March quarter. That is up from 2.2% in the December quarter, and up from the expected rise of 2.3%. Stats NZ says the proportion of large price increases have fallen to a five year low, even as quarterly inflation pushes higher due to petrol prices and tertiary education.

THE POWER OF MONOPOLY
Deep within the CPI data is a series that tracks central and local government charges, These rose +10.7% in the year to March 2025, far outpacing everything else. Data on this series goes back 35 years to 1989 and in that time these official charges have never jumped as much as that before. It is a bit ironic that this surge is coming as the Coalition is saying it is running New Zealand's version of the DOGE initiative.

JOB ADS YET TO GIVE POSITIVE SIGNALS
Seek says job volumes were flat in March but rose on a quarterly basis. And that qualifies to be the 'best' outlook in over two years.

EYES ON THE PETROL PRICE
A fall in the US$ cost of crude, and a rise of the NZ dollar should be making the petrol pump prices lower. But not noticeably yet. In NZD the cost of Dubai crude is now its lowest since late 2021. Pump prices are +6% higher than that 2021 benchmark. But in the meantime, government charges & taxes have risen, so 'we' aren't getting that benefit.

NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% today. That means it is down -0.7% for the past week, and down -7.3% since the start of the year, and up +2.1% from this time last year. Heartland, Vista, Stride, and Serko lead the gainers as Tourism Holdings, Kathmandu, Hallensteins, and Contact all drop.

THE COST OF A BAD REPUTATION
Tourism Holdings has a significant business related to visitors travelling to the US. Sadly for them, the reputation for travel to the US is in the Trump toilet. They say business in this sector is down about -50%. Their share price has tanked. They expect very much lower profitability.

STRONG DEMAND, LOWER YIELDS
There was $500 mln in NZ Government bonds put up for tender today in two maturities. In total they received 108 bids worth $1.6 bln of which 29 bids were successful. The May 2028 bond came in with a yield of 3.29%, down notably from the 3.85% at the prior equivalent event six weeks ago. The May 2034 bond came in with a yield of 4.53%, little-different to the 4.59% at the oprior equivalent event four weeks ago.

THE PAIN IS ALL AHEAD OF US
Ratings agency Fitch has make a sharp cut to its global growth forecasts due to the Trump-inspired tariff war. It says the US expansion will slow to a crawl as a result. And that because China's growth is a third dependent on global trade, they will be hit too. Spillovers will be felt far and wide, they say.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.48% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.29%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.65%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -9 bps at 4.57% from this time yesterday while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.54% and down another -6 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is down -1 bps at 3.81%, so that positive curve is still at +50 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.5% in late Thursday trade to end the week. The ASX200 is also up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.9% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is up +1.1%, while Shanghai is up just +0.1% at its open. Singapore has opened up +1.3%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Wednesday down -2.2% in a tough tech-inspired selloff.

OIL RISES IN USD
The oil price is up +US$2 from yesterday and now just over US$63/bbl in the US, and just under US$66.50/bbl for the international Brent price. Sellers are tiring of having its price tied to a depreciating greenback. It's not rising viz-a-viz other currencies (like the NZD).

CARBON PRICE DROPS
The carbon price is -50c lower today, now at NZ$49.50/NZU. That is its lowest since July 2024. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HITS YET ANOTHER HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$67 from this time yesterday, now at US$3333/oz, a new high.

NZD SAYS UP
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged from yesterday at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 52 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.7, up +10 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is up an insignificant +0.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$84,190. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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