What happened Thursday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; realtor commission report, rising sentiment and inflation, more on welfare benefits, more bankruptcies, high NZGB demand, swaps & NZD stable, & more

24th Apr 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no changes today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There were none here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

STAYING IN THE LONG TERM ZONE
Real estate agencies earned an estimated $455 mln in residential sales commissions in the first three months of this year. Although that is substantially higher than over the last two years, there's been very little long-term growth.

MORE CONFIDENT, ESPECIALLY ABOUT RISING INFLATION
Consumer confidence is rising - but so are inflation expectations. The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey shows kiwis see inflation being 4.7% in 2027 - the highest reading in this survey for two years.

MORE ADULTS ON A MAIN BENEFIT
Although adult welfare benefits were little-changed from December, they have risen a lot aver the past year. At the end of March, 398,163 people were receiving a main benefit. This was up +27,912 or +7.5% when compared to March 2024. The proportion of the working-age population receiving a main benefit increased to 12.2%, up from 11.5% a year ago.

INSOLVENCIES GET TOUGHER
Personal bankruptcy filings were up sharply in February and March from year ago levels, but No Asset filings (bankruptcy lite) have hardly moved. Company liquidations via the ITS are much higher, a trend that started in September.

NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.7% today. That means it is up +0.3% for the past week, and down -7.8% since the start of the year, and up only +0.8% from this time last year. Skellerup, Manawa Energy, SkyCity, and Heartland have the biggest gains today as Tower, Vista Group, Fletcher, and Vulcan Steel are the largest decliners.

HIGH DEMAND
Today's NZ Government bond tender exhibited all the hallmarks of investor flight to safety. First, there were two $250 mln maturities offered and they attracted more than $1.9 bln in 108 bids. Second, that strong bidding drove down yields slightly. The May 2030 $250 mln yielded 3.87% and the May 2036 yielded 4.63%. There was also a small inflation indexed bond offered, $25 mln. That attracted bids worth $106 mln for CPI+2.78%.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.46% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is also unchanged at 4.24%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.61% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.58% and up +3 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.36% and up +1 bp from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is up +2 bps at 3.84%, so that positive curve is now at +52 bps, little-changed.

EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRMER
The NZX50 is up +0.7% in late Thursday trade to finish the short week. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.1% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong however is dow -1.5% at its open, while Shanghai is down -0.2% at its open. Singapore has opened up +0.1%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Wednesday up +1.7% in some sort of relief rally..

OIL LOWER IN USD
The oil price is down almost -US$2 to US$62/bbl in the US, and just over US$66/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is unchanged today, still at NZ$50.50/NZU after some unusual temporary volatility. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD IN SMALL DIP
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$12 from yesterday, now at US$3339/oz, and now well off its highs.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 68, little-changed from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is up +0.4% from this time yesterday, now at US$93,180. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.

ANZAC DAY
Friday, April 25, 2025 is the Anzac Day holiday in New Zealand. There will be no 4pm update then.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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34 Comments

by J.C. | 24th Apr 25, 4:10pm 1745467853

Brilliant perspective from the mighty Chris Joye on the tariff wars. Refreshing to see the Joyester explain with such clarity instead of the empty, character assassination rhetoric bouncing around most MSM, water coolers, and BBQs. Highly recommended read.

What is perhaps just as remarkable is that nobody seems to have acknowledged it. A similar method is working well for Trump on trade. The April 2 forever war forced every country to think deeply about what sort of relationship they want with America – and how the world’s most important superpower was no longer going to accept mercantilist exploitation.

Trump then shimmied into a genius pivot. Just when investors were suffering their maximum pain point, he offered the world (sans China) the chance to do a new trade deal with America and thereby continue to enjoy past economic privileges.

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/trump-s-shock-and-awe-approach-to-ch…

by Foxglove. | 24th Apr 25, 5:22pm 1745472176

The art of the deal then. Awaiting, for want of a better word, the gambit whereby unless we get Greenland as a territory, we pull out all American European bases and military personnel and you guys can have NATO to yourselves for good measure. Now that would put a rat amongst the chickens for sure.

by Kate | 24th Apr 25, 5:44pm 1745473449

Genius and Trump in the same sentence?

The "genius" hasn't ended the war in Ukraine; he hasn't reduced the price of house building by 50%; he hasn't ushered in a new Golden Age; he hasn't halved the price of gas; he hasn't delivered on no tax on tips and social security; he hasn't made billions for his new External Revenue Service... and I love the way the author refers to a "pivot" rather than a U-turn.

by Pa1nter | 24th Apr 25, 6:01pm 1745474498

His largest genius is the ability to draw in very loyal sychophants.

by Rhumline | 24th Apr 25, 6:09pm 1745474971

JC do you really believe any of this? The carefully-planned parry and thrust of a master tactician? This is the beginning of the end for the US. What have they got to offer beyond excess consumption and a blind belief in their place in the world?

They live on debt... produce fewer and fewer things of value to their own citizens... and have largely lost the 'enquiring mind' needed to come together as individuals for collective action as opposed to follow the mantra like a flock of sheep. They lie and cheat and disenfranchise with abandon.

There is no doubt they will do damage on the way down, but the down button has been pushed.

Someone once explained to that it takes a moment to lose people's trust... it takes a lifetime to regain it.

by J.C. | 24th Apr 25, 6:54pm 1745477697

JC do you really believe any of this?

Forget about what I 'believe' and focus on what Joye is saying. I quoted the text "The April 2 forever war forced every country to think deeply about what sort of relationship they want with America".

You write: They live on debt... produce fewer and fewer things of value to their own citizens... and have largely lost the 'enquiring mind' needed to come together as individuals for collective action as opposed to follow the mantra like a flock of sheep.

So focus on Joye's words. What relationship does spiritual, sustainable, Equality Street Aotearoa want with the U.S.? If their world is so shallow, do we want anything to do with them? If we look at the U.S. as just an economic widget, aren't we equally as or more hypocritical?

by Pa1nter | 24th Apr 25, 7:29pm 1745479745

by Pa1nter | 24th Apr 25, 6:58pm 1745477907

If you ran a shop, would you only sell to customers you thought mirrored your morals and values?

Sometimes you dont get to choose perfection as an option, and instead life is just one big compromise.

by Pa1nter | 24th Apr 25, 6:56pm 1745477769

JC do you really believe any of this?

JC believes Tesla leads in AI, driverless cars, and robotics, so the sky's the limit.

by IT GUY | 24th Apr 25, 6:54pm 1745477679

Its a good read, if trump lands at 45-60% he loses? then Xi is a bigger fool.

I agree China only buys commodities from NZ...

by profile | 24th Apr 25, 4:13pm 1745467982

That time a generation of young people were priced out of the housing market.

"When young people don’t date or marry or start families, that’s the bottleneck coming for the most basic human institutions of all.

And when, because people don’t pair off and reproduce, nations age and diminish and die away, when depopulation sweeps East Asia and Latin America and Europe, as it will — that’s the last squeeze, the tightest part of the bottleneck, the literal die-off.

...This isn’t just a normal churn where travel agencies go out of business or Netflix replaces the VCR. Everything that we take for granted is entering into the bottleneck. And for anything that you care about — from your nation to your worldview to your favorite art form to your family — the key challenge of the 21st century is making sure that it’s still there on the other side."

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/19/opinion/extinction-technology-cultur…

https://afterthespike.com/media/nyt_pic.png

by J.C. | 24th Apr 25, 4:27pm 1745468829

100%. The arguments supporting the Anglosphere housing Ponzi are usually as dumb as you can get and basically misses the bigger picture that many people are being played. Remember the land being sold in Glengary Glen Ross. The actual quality and value of the land being sold is highly questionable. The play / film make it clear that the real estate is largely undesirable, inflated in price, and targeted at unwitting or vulnerable buyers. The land is often described as "worthless" or "undesirable," with some references suggesting it is akin to swamp land or otherwise lacking in infrastructure and genuine investment value. The salesmen themselves have little to no knowledge of the land's true condition, and the buyers are often misled or manipulated into believing they are making a sound investment.

by Pa1nter | 24th Apr 25, 4:43pm 1745469834

Sounds like you've watched that film recently.

by J.C. | 24th Apr 25, 5:37pm 1745473059

GGR is a masterpiece P. Won the 1984 Pulitzer Prize for Drama and has been revived multiple times on Broadway and in London, with notable casts and critical acclaim.

You could arranged a screening at a property seminar with critical analysis. Bump up the ticket prices and bring in Ashley Church as guest commentator.

by Pa1nter | 24th Apr 25, 6:03pm 1745474594

It's just you went from never mentioning it to repeatedly mentioning it. Figured it'd entered the playlist rotation

You sorta struggle with IRL human interaction aye

by BradJ | 24th Apr 25, 4:33pm 1745469231

And also the best way to save the planet

by Rhumline | 24th Apr 25, 6:13pm 1745475234

Jeepers P I didn't pick you as a NYT reader. Douthat's musings are poignant and cut to the heart of what those of here (left right centre or indifferent_ care about.

by IT GUY | 24th Apr 25, 7:09pm 1745478589

Yeah but maybe this will get the population back down towards 2-3 billion vs 8-10,

its going to happen one way or another.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Apr 25, 8:19pm 1745482761

Better someone has their hands on the joystick

While we land the population plane

Hang on...

by Pa1nter | 24th Apr 25, 9:50pm 1745488246

No one's got their hands on the joystick mate.

Never has

Example: Physics can very accurately explain most of what's going on in space

No physicist could accurately map out the constitution of the stars at the moment of the big bang

There's laws but it's all still chaos

by Rhumline | 24th Apr 25, 10:17pm 1745489827

Jeepers P I didn't pick you as a NYT reader. Douthat's musings are poignant and cut to the heart of what those of here (left right centre or indifferent_ care about.

by Let me be Frank | 24th Apr 25, 6:11pm 1745475080

"Consumer confidence is rising - but so are inflation expectations."

One has to wonder about the usefulness of such surveys.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/558938/third-of-new-zealanders-need…

Think about it.

by IT GUY | 24th Apr 25, 7:13pm 1745478838

There is a lot of obesity as well, maybe that fat people could donate some food to the thin people?

I am thinking how else we could solve the lack of food issues, and the eating excess food issues at the same time.

by J.C. | 24th Apr 25, 7:28pm 1745479692

The world's most obese countries are predominantly small Pacific island nations, with obesity rates frequently exceeding 60% of the adult population.

Aotearoa is considered one of the most obese countries in the world. As of 2021, approximately 34.3% of the adult population was classified as obese, and this rate has been steadily increasing over the past decade. 3rd highest adult obesity rate in the OECD.

by IT GUY | 24th Apr 25, 7:53pm 1745481223

Obesity is a significant public health concern in New Zealand, with approximately one in three adults classified as obese. The Ministry of Health reports that the prevalence of obesity among adults is higher among Pacific Islanders (71.3%) and Māori (50.8%) compared to European/Other adults (31.9%). Additionally, one in ten children are also classified as obese.

by J.C. | 24th Apr 25, 8:01pm 1745481689

We like to lecture on how pure, clean, green, more wholesome Aotearoa is compared to America. It's largely just fantasy.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Apr 25, 8:20pm 1745482849

They used to eat each other.

Fat transfer sorted

by IT GUY | 24th Apr 25, 10:01pm 1745488892

A horrid practice

by makechange | 24th Apr 25, 9:45pm 1745487931

I caught myself wondering this week what it would be like sitting down to dinner with some of the personalities on this site and seeing how the conversations flow, what insights are generated and what becomes of the night. Wouldn't be expected to share user handles or anything of that nature.

Could be quite fun methinks.

Would there be any takers on an Interest.co.nz commenters' meetup at some point?

by IT GUY | 24th Apr 25, 10:02pm 1745488975

A good curry and beers

by IT GUY | 25th Apr 25, 9:04am 1745528652

I would be keen for an Auckland chapter. Some past members could be interested.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/9759332250780900

by Foxglove. | 25th Apr 25, 10:03am 1745532183

More likely a lodge than a chapter. In which case I bags the bison hat with horns and know where to get a pig iron altar in which to burn the goat bones.

by Foxglove. | 25th Apr 25, 7:29am 1745522972

Knights of the Round Table square off.

by powerdownkiwi | 25th Apr 25, 9:45am 1745531133

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dviEWs_VIG4

I don't do social media - but I've friends made hereabouts.