The primary sector's continued strong performance saw New Zealand record its fifth consecutive monthly goods trade surplus in June.
It was the first time since the pandemic-affected trade in 2020 that New Zealand had racked up five consecutive surpluses. However, the latest one was the smallest of the five - at just $142 million and well down on the $1 billion-plus surpluses in both April and May.
Statistics New Zealand reported that in June 2025 compared with June 2024 our goods exports rose by $601 million (10%), to $6.63 billion, while goods imports rose by $1.04 billion (19%), to $6.49 billion.
One interesting thing to note within the data was New Zealand's exports to the United States, which of course announced tariffs in April.
While our imports from the US were up 20.6% in June compared with the same month in 2024 at $636 million, our exports dropped 8.8% to $753 million. The drop in exports followed a 5.1% fall in May compared with May 2024, while in April there had been a 21.8% year-on-year rise and in March a 19.2% rise.
Meat is a significant export from NZ to the US and it's worth noting that after four consecutive months of topping $1 billion in exports for meat, the figure in June was just $814 billion, albeit that this was up slightly on the figure in June 2024.
In terms of the total exports, the top export destination in June 2025 was still China, up 10.8% (compared with June 2024) to $1.539 billion, while Australia moved ahead of the US into second place with $807 million in the month of June, up 15.5% on June 2024.
As ever, in June 2025, our 'star' export was dairy products, with $1.805 billion worth exported, up $323 million, or 22% on the same month a year ago. Biggest contributor within the dairy products group was milk powder, with $860 million worth exported.
In the month, dairy products made up 27.7% of the $6.63 billion total export figure.
And in fact, if you add in $814 million for meat, $738 million for fruit and $429 million for forest products, these four primary industry stars made up over 57% of the total exported.
It's the same if we look at the annual picture. In the 12 months to June, total exports were $76.364 billion, up 11.4% on the 12 month period to June 2024.
Of the total in the 12 months to June 2025, dairy products exports were $22.818 billion, up 20.1% on the year.
And across the whole 12 months to June 2025, dairy products accounted for 29.9% of the total exports.
Looking at the 'big four' of dairy, meat, fruit and forestry, these accounted for 56.5% of all the exports in the 12 month period.
Special mention is due for fruit exports, which at $5.741 billion across the 12 months, were up $1.726 billion, or 43% on the previous 12 month period.
6 Comments
Good on the dirty, filthy farmers and growers across NZ (according to Labour & Greens....) for continuing to allow NZ to maintain its first world living conditions. I don't think the general population understand just how drastically their standard of life would change, for the worse, if it wasn't for the farmers and growers up and down this country.
Contracting the domestic economy with rising unemployment and falling demand means imports fall relative to exports. It's called 'Milei Math' after the Argentine President - who halved the currency value by decree to give exports a boost and destroy imports.
In NZ we should expect a weaker dollar to do the same here and make local assets more attractive to FDI - cheap labor and falling asset prices are an investors dream.
What does it tell you when NZ's most significant building firm is selling part of its construction arm in a depressed market. Ouch.
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Contracting the domestic economy with rising unemployment and falling demand means imports fall relative to exports. It's called 'Milei Math' after the Argentine President - who halved the currency value by decree to give exports a boost and destroy imports.
This lacks the context of why Milei Maths exists. Which is due the ramifications of the sort of "let's just spend money irrespective of the outcome" government fiscal approach you espouse. It assumes the government can spend money as efficiently, or more efficiently than the market. Which it definitely couldn't in the case of Argentina.
We probably sit somewhere in between. I debated with Jfoe (Johnny Foe) a year or so ago that higher interest rates would improve our account deficit, as higher interest rates would have us buying less crap and exporting more relatively. That looks to have been the case. It's just not in a fashion people are happy with, but it tells us how debt related our lifestyles are.
What does it tell you when NZ's most significant building firm is selling part of its construction arm in a depressed market. Ouch.
Again, lacks a qualitative understanding of the situation. NZs "most significant building firm" has ridden it's coat rails and been poorly managed for 20 years now. If not for its legacy it should have gone to the wall some time ago now. It just takes a slump to highlight the weakness. The way a semi legit market should.
Fruit exports from South Africa to Asia and Europe are experiencing strong, sustained growth, especially apples, pears, stone fruit, and blueberries.
NZ apple exports are experiencing strong competition in China, ASEAN, and Germany from South Africa (and Chile). For ex, South African apples can sit on the shelf at 20% lower prices than NZ apples. Also, they don't spend as much on in-market brand activation as brands such as Rockit and Envy.
We are not as special as we might think.
Not all produce is the same. NZ is a fairly special place agriculturally, although that's by circumstance than any human related influence.
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