Claims & counterclaims in US-Iran talks but no deal; markets act as though one will emerge; Singapore data strong; China FDI stabilises; yuan financing rises; UST 10yr at 4.47%; gold rises; oil drops; NZ$1 = 58.7 USc; TWI-5 = 62.1

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news oil prices have slid on hopes of a US-Iran deal. But despite US statements saying talks are "going nicely", Iran seems to be saying otherwise even if they are engaged in talks. But they seem to be talks-about-talks. Supposed insider information says the Strait of Hormuz will still be closed for another 60 days "for mine-clearing" (some say 30 days). And the US is adding new conditions each time the sides meet. Meanwhile, two LNG tankers have passed through the Strait in the past 24 hours.

Just a reminder that the US is on a long weekend holiday and we won't be getting data updates from there until tomorrow morning from there. Pre-market activity (futures) is still active however.

So first, like Japan, Singapore reported that their April CPI inflation pressure stayed very low and contained, up just +1.8% from a year ago, down -0.3% from March. Fuel costs are a small part of their index. The big mover was for clothing and that fell sharply.

Singapore also said its Q1-2026 expansion was +6.0% from the same quarter a year ago, bettering the +5.7% expansion in the previous quarter, and better than forecast (+5.1%). But they are much less bullish on how the year will turn out, revising that to "2%-4%" as Trump's Gulf War takes it toll.

But in Malaysia they reported a sharp jump in producer costs. Their producer prices rose +5.4% in April from a year ago, picking up from just a +1.1% rise in March. Prior to that, their PPI had fallen consistently since March 2025. This latest increase was also the most since August 2022, all driven by the mounting disruptions from the war in Iran.

In China, they said foreign direct investment fell -10.3% in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Things got off to a negative start, but regained some initiative in April. (April 2025 was a particularly weak base.)

And global demand for yuan-denominated financing is rising, with panda and dim sum bond issuance climbing sharply in early 2026 as borrowers look to diversify away from costly US dollar funding. Panda bond issuance - yuan debt sold on the Chinese mainland by overseas institutions - topped US$13 bln in the first quarter, nearly half of last year’s total. Dim sum bonds are those issued outside China, in yuan. They hit US$45 bln in the quarter, also on track to beat the 2025 level. Yuan funding comes with much lower interest rates than US dollar funding..

We should probably also note that the Pope has issued an encyclical on how AI should be managed, by politicians and company managers. Like many previous Papal encyclicals, if is likely to be influential in debates about AI.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +34 bps (+11 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +41 bps (unchanged) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +80 bps (-10 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.75%, unchanged from yesterday. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps at 2.70%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.87%, also down -6 bps. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.67%.

Wall Street is closed for the holiday, but the after-market trading on the S&P500 futures indicates it will open tomorrow up +1.2%. Overnight, European markets rose Paris's +1.8% and Frankfurt's +2.0% (London was closed.). Yesterday, Tokyo closed up +2.9%. Hong Kong was up +0.9% and Shanghai was up +1.0%. Singapore was little-changed. The ASX200 ended its Monday session up +0.4%. The NZX50 ended down -0.2%.

The price of gold will start today up +US$55 at US$4563/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50at just over US$78/oz.

Oil prices have fallen -US$6.50 to just on US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$7.50 to just on US$96.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just under 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.1 which is up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,502 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».