Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news financial markets may be moving on from the US-Iran deal, but commodity markets are noting that Iran will now have the opportunity to charge for transit ('fees' but no 'tolls') after a key US concession. The MOU is signed.
In the US, jobless claims dipped slightly last week to 219,500 but at about the rate expected as what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now just under 1.7 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than a year ago.
The Philly Fed factory survey recovered in June after the poor report for May, but only to a level below its 2026 average. These firms said prices paid moved up while the prices they got for their goods dipped.
Meanwhile the US Conference Board's leading index rose marginally in May, and this metric suggests it may be coming to the end of its long term down trend that started in 2022.
In Canada, producer prices were up +13.6% in May from a year earlier with +1.2% of that coming in the latest month. Of course, most of this was energy related. In fact raw materials costs were up +33% from a year ago within the overall result.
There was a lot of central bank action overnight, all timed to follow the US Fed. Taiwan held its policy rate unchanged at 2.0% as expected. Indonesia hike again, up +25 bps to 5.75% quickly following last week's out-of-cycle emergency hike to support their currency.
The central Bank of England held unchanged at 2.75% (with two of their nine members wanting a hike). The Swiss central bank held at 0%. The Norwegian central bank held at 4.25%. And the Swedish central bank held at 1.75% a day ago. All these came after last week's +25 bps rise by the ECB.
Global container freight rates surged another +12% last week to be +21% higher than this time last year. There were increases in all major trades but the China-EU trade got the biggest hit. Meanwhile, bulk cargo rates fell -8% over the past week to be +36% higher than year ago levels.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +27 bps (down -9 bps in a notable flattening). Their 1-5 curve is now at +23 bps (-7 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +78 bps (unchanged). The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 2.61%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.79%, up +2 bps from yesterday. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.47%.
Wall Street bounced back today with the S&P500 up +0.9% and the Nasdaq is up +1.5%. Overnight, European markets closed up +0.4%, except London which fell -1.0%. Tokyo ended its Thursday session up +1.6% to a new record high. Hong Kong however fell -1.6% and Shanghai fell -0.4%. Singapore rose +0.7%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session down -0.6%. And the NZX50 dipped another -0.2%.
The price of gold has retreated another -US$44 from yesterday to US$4229/oz. Silver is down another -US$2 at US$66/oz.
Oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just under US$75.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78.50/bbl and down -50 USc. Hormuz transits are picking up with 13 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours and 13 entering for new loads. (Normal is 60 in each direction.)
The Kiwi dollar is down -60 bps from this time yesterday at just on 57.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.0 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3 which is down -50 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,623 and down -5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.0%.
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8 Comments
Reading through the latest, Iran 1 USA nil, reporting outcomes far worse than intentions, somehow the old school scripture lessons came forward. They should rename the eighteenth book in the Old Testament from The Book of Job to the Book of Trump. Regionally it would rather fit wouldn’t it.
Trump won because no one's talking about Epstein any more. He probably took some profit from causing values to change on a daily basis too. The fact that America lost would be of no concern to him.
It's amusing how people just look at the surface level of things. Simple souls, poor sweet summer children. In many years to come, historians will look back at these events and marvel at the brilliance of President Trump.
The Orange man created the Trump coin to profit off the presidency and his fans. There is only one person he cares about.
What do you think historians will marvel about? What did the US get out of the war? The only smart thing Trump did was end it.
But he will lose in the mid-terms.
No Epstein is still being discussed. There's a faction of the media who will not let it rest. Too many unanswered questions and more than a few ready to give the victims a voice. At best Trump has only delayed the accounting.
Trump was betting that with a show of force he would get domestic led regime change in Iran and the US would then control the country by a puppet government.
Didn't happen. Then he floundered around like the school bully when someone finally pushes back. Lots of mean words and vain attempts to make out that he's still in control.
Apart from that there's a lot of variables like Israel and he's really just fighting those fires one by one.
I imagine Bibi has some attempted regime change coming his own way soon.
The King Trump 11 version would have him resting on the 14th day.
And the book of Jones would be pointing out that having cast their nets on all sides, they needed to reduce mesh size - drawing on the eye-of-a-needle precedent.
And the Book of Revelations gets opened a certain distance out from an election.
Meanwhile Armageddon closer...
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