China service sector improves; ditto Japan; Korea's stock market on a wild ride; Vietnam rising & upgraded by the World Bank; global food prices ease; UST 10yr at 4.49%; gold rises and oil stable; NZ$1 = 57.1 USc; TWI-5 = 60.9

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of some big moves in South Korea and Vietnam.

But first, news from the giant US economy is sparse today because they are on holiday, celebrating their 250th Fourth of July independence anniversary. They don't see it but they are being recolonized by Big Tech and a grifting billionaire president who is milking them for all he can. The 1776 Declaration of Independence was pro-immigration, anti-tariff, and broadly egalitarian (for the time). Time has corrupted these values.

In China, their unofficial services PMI came in quite positive for June, similar to May. Growth rates for activity and new business remain strong. They recorded the strongest rise in employment since July 2024 and the fastest input cost inflation in over two years. Service sector firms there are optimistic about the immediate future. The overall result was better than the official China services PMI.

In Japan, their services PMI returned to growth in June, but cost pressures intensified, but here business confidence remained subdued. Which is in contrast to their quite positive factory PMI.

In South Korea we should probably note a very bumpy run recently by their stock market. It is dominated by major technology and semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, so it is like the Nasdaq on steroids. This gives it unusual volatility, and that volatility has been on display in the past two weeks. This market hit a new record high on June 22 but has fallen -11% since. On Friday, it rose +5.8% however but even that still left it down -3% for the week. Over the past year, this equity market has risen a stunning +165% with most of it in 2026 and most of it tech-related.

In Vietnam, they posted a high Q2-2026 growth rate of +8.4%, building on their +7.8% Q1-2026 rate. (How can they report so quickly?) But this latest result will disappoint them because they have set a 2026 target of +10% and that now looks unlikely to be achieved, derailed somewhat by the Middle East conflict, also by missing their infrastructure build-out targets. Inflation eased to 4.7% in June from May's 5.6%, moving closer to the government's 4.5% inflation target this year. The World Bank has now reclassified Vietnam as an upper-middle-income economy, effective July 1.

The FAO global Food Price Index retreated for a second consecutive month in June, led down by falling cereals prices as harvests stay high, despite concerns in the US and Australia. Dairy prices eased slightly too, but meat prices stayed elevated. However it is vegetable oil prices that are keeping this index from falling faster.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday but a +12 bps rise from this time last week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +35 bps (unchanged). Their 1-5 curve is now at +28 bps (unchanged) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +88 bps (unchanged). The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 2.77%, up +16 bps for the week and back to the 30 year-high levels we saw in May. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.82%, unchanged from yesterday, up +6 bps for the week. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.48%, also unchanged from Friday, but up +9 bps for the week.

Wall Street is closed today for their holiday, up a net +2.3% on the S&P500 for the week, up +2.9% for the week on the Nasdaq. Overnight, European markets were modestly stronger, up between London's +0.2% and Frankfurt's +0.8%. Yesterday Tokyo closed up +1.5% for a weekly gain of just +0.2%. Hong Kong closed up +1.3% for a weekly gain of +1.7%. Shanghai was up +0.4% on Friday for a weekly +0.4% gain. Singapore ended up +0.5%. The ASX200 ended its Friday up +1.4% and its week up +0.8%. The NZX50 firmed +0.3% on Friday for a weekly +0.9% gain.

The Fear & Greed index has moved back to be in the middle of the 'fear' zone from being just in the 'extreme fear' zone a week ago.

The price of gold has risen to US$4174/oz, up a net +US$68/oz from yesterday, up +US$100 from a week ago. Silver is now under US$62.50/oz, up +US$2 from a day ago, up +US$3.50/oz for the week.

Oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just over US$68.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +50 USc at US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 19 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 19 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 24 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over five of every six vessel movements are related to cargoes headed to China, Russia or are Iran-linked.

In the US, the settling in of higher oil prices is bringing in more oil wells into production, back up sharply from the early May low point and back to levels last seen in June 2025 (when the WTI price was US$61/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday at just over 57.1 USc, up +70 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.9 which is up another +10 bps from this time yesterday, up +60 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,139 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday, but up almost +4% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».