A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; no retail rate changes, dairy prices hold, greenhouse gas reductions too slow, credit card debt eases, swaps flat, NZX firms, NZD retreats, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

STRESS - AND AI
Financial Services Complaints, an ombudsman service for the finance sector, investigated 532 disputes in the 2025/26 reporting year, the highest number in its history, and up almost +50% from the prior year. They say the stress from tougher economic conditions, and the wider use of AI to file complaints, drove the rise. 30% of complaints were against lenders, up from 27% in the prior year, but down from 43% in the year prior. Given the number of financial transaction that are done in any year, that there are only 532 disputes is amazingly small.

DAIRY PRICES DON'T FALL
The overnight dairy auction surprised somewhat with an end to the recent weakness, rising +1.5% in USD terms although down almost -1.0% in NZD terms on the firmer NZD. Perhaps surprisingly, milk fats did quite well, other than cheddar (-6.5%). Powders were all up. Some say that northern hemisphere heatwaves have buyers nervous that this will soon weigh on production levels there, so stocks are being built in case.

DOWNTREND STILL IN PLACE, BUT ...
Overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by industries and households decreased -0.2% in June from the March quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. The drop was mainly by the mining industry. It is the fourth consecutive quarter of reduced emissions. But there were increases by the transport industry, households, manufacturers, agriculture, and the electricity generation sector. Apart from the logistics sector, these latest increases are only a minor hesitation in the longer term trend of reductions by industry, agriculture and households. However, the Climate Change Commission says these decreases are too slow to meet our international commitments.

WHAT CREDIT CARD DATA SAYS ABOUT OUR SPENDING HABITS
Spending on credit cards firmed in May and local use is now just a tiny tick under $3.87 bln for the month which is well below the $4.04 bln we spent in May 2023 which is the May month record high. But we are seeing domestic card spending trending up slightly, up +3.3% from the same month a year ago. But the big mover is our spending on cards outside New Zealand. This is at record high levels for a May month at $720 mln. We are far better at using these cards without incurring interest. In fact in May 2026 we paid them off faster than in any May month prior. Still that leaves about half of all credit card debt incurring interest, even if it is near its all-time low.

OWN GOAL
Check out our new podcast series, Hamilton Confidential. It follows a leak that shows Hamilton company Worldclear processing money transfers, which they claim reached $500 mln a year, for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. Worldclear was found by the Department of Internal Affairs to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. It took advantage of some weak regulation designed to make us the "Switzerland of the South Pacific" which has backfired badly, contributing to tarnishing our reputation. This investigation is the result of a years-long effort initiated by interest.co.nz and then bolstered by the OCCRP (Organised Crime & Reporting Project). Our PressPatron Supporters enabled us to complete this work.

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.2% so far to that point, up +0.4% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +0.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.1% so far today, which is impressive ahead of the new expected US tariffs. There have been 46 gainers so far today, led by an impressive rise for SkyCity casino (it is selling assets with the latest being the Grand Hotel in Auckland), and backed up by Vulcan Steel, Kathmandu, Mercury and Fletchers. There are 36 decliners, led by Gentrack, Contact, Meridian, Investore and Vital Healthcare.

JAPAN'S TRADE LEVELS HIGH
Japanese exports rose faster than expected in June, up more than +19% from a year earlier. The weak yen helped as did strong demand for electronics and other data center equipment. The June export level was their second highest on record, just a whisker off the March record. At the same time their imports surged as well, up +25% and also more than expected to a new record high, just eclipsing the October 2022 level. Oil prices were high but oil import volumes retreated. The net result was a modest but stable trade deficit in June (from May), but slightly worse than the small trade surplus in June a year ago. None of this helped the yen however because it fell to a 40 year low against the USD. Against the NZD it has only been this low in 2024 and 2007.

MARKET MOVEMENTS, CCP STYLE
In case anyone is still confused, or unaware, the Chinese regulator, China Securities Regulatory Commission, has been organising the SOE home team to bolster the Chinese stock markets recently, after they showed some negative indications. This has driven some good rises, but also a creeping state ownership in many listed Chinese companies. The Shanghai Composite closed up +1.8% yesterday, the Shenzhen Component was up +4.8%, while the ChiNext was up +7.1% and the STAR Market index jumped 8.8%. This is not to claim other governments don't manipulate markets; they do (Trump, Japan, etc.). But the Chinese moves don't seem sustainable unless the reasons for the dour conditions that prompted the artificial buying are resolved. In other economies, regulators would get punished by investors if issues aren't resolved. In China it is the other way around.

STALLING?
In Australia, the latest update of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, suggests growth there is stalling. While the latest growth pulse is still not overly weak it is broadly consistent with stalling activity through the middle of the year.

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.88% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps from yesterday at 4.98%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also unchanged at 2.74% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.72%, down -1 bp from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -3 bps at 4.68%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps at 4.62%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market has firmed more since 3pm, now up +0.5% so far. The ASX200 is up +0.3%. Tokyo has opened up +1.9% in a further recovery. Hong Kong is down -0.8% and Shanghai is up +0.3% at its open today, with 'home team' buying looking a bit exhausted. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session with the S&P500 up +0.9%. The Nasdaq was up +1.3%.

OIL PRICES UP SHARPLY
American oil prices are up +US$3 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just over US$85/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$92/bbl..

CARBON PRICE FIRM
There have been fewer trades so far today but the price has moved up +$1 again to $56/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$93/oz from yesterday, now at US$4129/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 at just under US$60/oz.

NZD SLIPS AWAY
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just under 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 83.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.1 and down -40 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$66,254 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday in an extended push higher. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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