A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; job ad volumes higher, US hits NZ with new tariff, Aussie PMIs rise, equities sell off and interest rates rise globally, swap rates jump, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HELP WANTED
Seek's June Employment Report shows a +10.7% annual rise in job ad volumes, now at their highest point for more than two years.

HYPOCRITE, OF COURSE
The United States today confirmed new 12.5% tariffs on New Zealand imports for 'failure to impose and effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour'. The irony is not lost on anyone who studies forced labour. The United States imports the largest total value of goods at risk of being produced by forced labour. According to data compiled in the Walk Free Global Slavery Index, the US alone imports US$170 bln worth of at-risk products every year. New Zealand? Not enough to even register in any global assessment. The US action is just a made-up excuse unworthy in any diplomacy.

CHANCE VOIGHT COMPANIES IN LIQUIDATION
The Financial Markets Authority says six Chance Voight companies, associated with Bernard Whimp, have been placed in liquidation by the High Court after it found the Rangiora-based Chance Voight Group was insolvent and operating an unsustainable business model.

NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down almost -0.4% at that point from yesterday, but up +0.4% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.3% so far today. Gentrack, Argosy Property, Kathmandu and Tourism Holdings rise, but falls in SkyCity casino, Air NZ, Fletcher and Ryman drag the NZX50 lower.

STAYING MODEST
Japan's CPI inflation stayed low in June even if it did rose to a six month high. It came in at 1.7% in June from 1.5% in May, its highest since December. The pickup was largely driven by a slower decline in electricity and fuel prices as government energy subsidies were scaled back.

STRONG NEW ORDER DRIVE
Japan's private sector expanded to a five-month high in July via a sharp rise in manufacturing production and an improvement in their factory PMI which was driven mainly by the sharpest increase in manufacturing orders for five years.

A WELCOME RECOVERY
Australia also got better new factory order levels in July, the first increase in new business in five months. Improved demand conditions underpinned a stronger expansion in output, led to upgraded recruitment activity and enabled greater protection of profit margins. This data confirms the good labour market data released yesterday. But overall Australian growth is likely to remain sluggish.

JUST THE START?
Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra house prices actually fell in the June quarter, an unusual but necessary shift to make their housing more affordable. It takes serious political bravery to turn a frothy market where gains just fell from the sky.

EYES ON CORE INGREDIENT PRICES
Bitumen prices are surging again on the closed Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes. They are back to levels that we had in mid-March and which lasted to mid-June. Interestingly, urea prices are staying low as are potash prices (minor rises) but sulphur prices never fell after the March spike. Naphtha (used for plastics manufacturing) is rising sharply again.

SWAP RATES JUMP
Wholesale swap rates will likely be sharply higher today, maybe as much as +10 bps in some cases. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.90% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps from yesterday at 5.08%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +5 bps at 2.76% today and a new 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.81%, and up +7 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +2 bps at 4.72%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +5 bps at 4.71% and its highest in 18 months.

EQUITIES LOWER
The local equity market has stayed soft since 3pm, still down -0.4% so far, but this is the least of any of the markets we follow. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is down -1.1%. Tokyo has opened down -2.8% in a returned sell-off. Hong Kong is down -1.4% and Shanghai is down -1.1% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session with the S&P500 down -1.2%. The Nasdaq was down -2.2%.

OIL PRICES RISE SHARPLY
American oil prices are up another +US$4 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just over US$92/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$100.50/bbl and up +US$4.50.

CARBON PRICE ...
There have been fewer trades so far today and very small ones but the price has held at $56/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$101/oz from yesterday, now at US$4025/oz. Silver is now just pver US$57/oz and down nearly -US$3/oz.

NZD EASES AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just under 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.7 and down -30 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$65,070 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».