A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; minor retail rate changes, substantial building consent levels, weak commercial lease demand, oil prices fall sharply, swaps firm, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank and China Construction Bank have made home loan rate changes. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HIGH YEAR-ON-YEAR, BUT PROSPECTS WEAKEN
More than 40,000 new homes were consented in the year to June, up +19% on previous year. The rises were higher in Auckland (+20%) and Canterbury (+33%). But recent conditions may mean the peak has already passed. Population growth is now below average and a large increase in the number of available homes will weigh on demand. At the same time, interest rates and building costs are rising, and the number of builders failing commercially is rising.

NON-RES CONSENTS SHAKY
The value of commercial building work being consented has eased back modestly over the past year. With sluggish economic conditions and ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook, developers and occupiers are likely to remain cautious about committing to major capital expenditure in the near term. Things would have been worse without good warehouse construction (for on-line delivery).

RBNZ CLOSES CASH CONSULTATION
The Reserve Bank says its "keeping cash local" consultation has closed after receiving nearly 6,000 responses. The RBNZ's proposal would enforce a cash service standard on NZ banks, requiring them to provide cash services across the country for free at an estimated annual cost to the banks of $104 mln. Assistant Governor Karen Silk said on Monday that the consultation findings will be released in late September. Consultation on the Reserve Bank's proposal was originally due to close in April but was extended to July 31. Bank lobby group the New Zealand Banking Association has labelled the proposal "extreme" and a "back to the future solution."

SLIDING
The number of commercial properties advertised for lease is still rising. We had thought we were near its high point in this cycle, but it has proven illusory. Nationally, these listings are up +15.5% at the end of July from a year ago. If there is a bright spot, it is central Auckland were they are down -6.8% from a year ago. But in South Auckland in the city's industrial heartland they are up +33.6%. In Waikato they are up +23% on the same basis, in Tauranga up +10.5%, in Wellington up +34%. Even Christchurch is up +13.8%. This listing data is sourced from realestate.co.nz.

NZX50 FIRMISH
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% today, but down -0.8% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is essentially unchanged so far today. Kathmandu, Spark, Vista and Port of Tauranga lead the gains while EBOS, Investore Property, a2 Milk and Channel Infrastructure are slipping.

A DIP, BUT NEW ORDERS UP
Over the weekend we noted that China's official factory PMIs all turned down, and into contraction territory. The private S&P Global version has been less gloomy in the past, but today's release also shows a sector slipping in July from June. But at least this alternate versions is not yet contracting. And they feature rising new order levels, which is promising.

GLOBAL FACTORIES STILL BUSY
And while we are at it, we should note that the factory PMIs for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia all remained quite positive and expansionary. All of these noted that cost pressures are easing now. The Australian version is rising too, but cost pressures there are still elevated.

HOUSE PRICES DIP AGAIN
In Australia, the Cotality Home Value Index dropped -0.7% in July from June, the sharpest monthly decline since December 2022 and accelerating from a -0.4% fall in the prior month. The drop was after higher mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and soft consumer sentiment, all hurt housing demand. Sydney and Melbourne lead the downturn, with home values falling -1.4% and -1.2%, respectively in a month.

NOT EASING
Staying in Australia, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased materially in July, after falling in the previous two months. The increase was broad-based, with annual headline inflation of 4.0%. The monthly cost of living also increased across a range of household types. Later this week we will jet the June household spending data from the ABS and also their cost of living indicators. This MI data suggests whatever those ABS results in June, things will get worse in July.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates may have firmed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.94% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bp from Saturday at 4.94%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at to 1.71%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.81% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.76%, and up +6 bps from this morning. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate down -6 bps at 4.67%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps at 4.69%.

EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The local equity market is now up only +0.3%. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is dipped -0.3%. Tokyo however has opened down -1.7%. Hong Kong is up a minor +0.3% but Shanghai is down -0.6% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. South Korea is continuing its volatility, down -4.2% to start their week. Wall Street futures suggests the S&P500 will open up +0.8% and the Nasdaq up +14%.

OIL PRICES DROP
Trump threats gave way to yet another pullback (TACO) and oil prices have fallen sharply today so far. American oil prices have fallen -US$5 from this morning with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$79.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$83.50/bbl and down -US$4.50.

CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
There have been very few trades so far today and the price has eased back slightly to $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$20/oz from this morning, now at US$4062/oz. Silver is now just on US$58/oz and up +50 USc from the same time.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged against the USD from this morning's open, still at just on 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 83.8 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.6 and little-changed.

BITCOIN HOLDS SOFT
The bitcoin price is now at US$66,083 and down -0.4% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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