Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ announced increases for all its fixed rates to 3 years. Bank of Baroda also raised some rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ also said it will raise TD rates for terms 6-24 months. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HIBERNATING HOUSING MARKET
Auckland's largest realtor said the housing market in their region was 'in hibernation' during July. They report sales dipped lower and prices moved sideways in the month.
TURNING UP
ANZ says it is seeing better consumer spending patterns in its July card data tracking. That showed a +0.5% lift in July (seasonally adjusted), with annual growth rising from 5.8% to 6.1%. Most categories saw higher spend compared to June. Spending on motor vehicles and fuels fell -0.8% from the prior month, and non-retail trades and goods and services also slipped, but both following strong lifts the month before. Durables and hospitality saw the largest monthly increases, up 2.3% and 2.0%, both coming off declines in June. All store types in the hospitality category lifted. A lift in spend on accommodation and vehicle rental is a good sign for a tourism rebound.
CAR SALES DOMINATED BY NEVs
UPDATE: July new car sales were 8736 and +11.7% higher than year-ago levels. A record 68.8% of all new car sales were NEV's and total EVs now exceed 100,000 on our roads - a tiny share still, but it is expanding fast all the same. But new commercial vehicle sales at 11,663 were -17% lower than a year ago. Used car imports were unchanged on that basis.
IN DECLINE
Credit cards are losing favour, especially with younger people, as digital payments rise in popularity. See our report here.
CONSUMER GRIPES
Every two years the Commerce Commission and MBIE commission IPSOS to survey consumers on their normal buying experiences when they interact with businesses. The 2026 edition found that dealing with car transactions with private sellers generated the most problems, followed by buying groceries, dealing with a rest home, dealing with a car dealer and then home maintenance. The transactions generating the least dissatisfaction were buying petrol, banking & financial services, buying a non-electric household product, entertainment, and personal services.
UPGRADED
Bridging finance specialist and NBDT General Finance has had its Equifax credit rating upgraded to BB+ with a Stable Outlook. BB+ is a sub-investment grade rating but just one step away from investment grade. General Finance is covered by the Deposit Compensation Scheme. (The only Non-Bank Deposit Taker (NBDT) with an investment grade credit rating is Liberty Financial.)
ENDEMIC LOW PAY
The overall average retail wage has risen to $30.94 per hour, up +1% on last year, according to the 2026 Wages Guide from Retail NZ, the retail sector lobby group. They report there are 222,400 Kiwis working across 29,505 retail businesses. The average they note is "above the Minimum Wage ($23.95) and Living Wage ($28.95)" but if their 'average' is only 7% higher than the Living Wage, they must have tens of thousands of employees at or below that.
NZX50 FIRMISH AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% today, but down -0.3% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.8% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +9.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up a strong +2.0% so far today. Briscoes, Vista, Gentrack and Oceania lift the NZX50 despite declines from Kathmandu, Napier Port, SkyCity casino and Kiwi Property Group.
MANAGEMENT CHANGES AT ASB
ASB says Debbie Mills has been appointed Executive General Manager for Modernisation subject to Reserve Bank approval. Mills will; "bring together ASB’s transformation initiatives to build a simple, modern bank with improved customer experiences." Mills has been leading ASB’s core banking transformation. David Bullock will continue as Executive General Manager for Technology, Data and AI, ASB says. ASB has also hired Tiffany Ryan as General Manger for Financial Crime Operations. Ryan moves from SkyCity, where she has been Group General Manager of Financial Crime.
RECORDING 'NORMAL'
We note electricity prices when they are extreme. But we should also balance that with what is 'normal' like today. Prices are in a low range, well under $100/MWhr nationwide with strong generation from hydro, geothermal and wind. The emissions profile is excellent. The market is functioning properly.
DAIRY COMMODITY PROSPECTS
There is a full dairy auction tomorrow and the expectations are mixed. The important powders may actually firm by +1% or +2%. But AMF and butter prices are likely to take a beating (-6% ?).
AUSSIES SPEND UP ON EVs & TRAVEL
In Australia, household spending rose +0.8% in June from may to be +6.0% higher than year-ago levels. This is a very consistent rising trend from September 2024 when it was at under +1% from the prior year. This high gain was largely due to increased spending on cars, especially EVs, and for travel..
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may have softened very slightly but will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.95% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from yesterday at 4.97%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at to 1.71%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.80% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.75%, and down -1 bp from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +7 bps at 4.74%.) The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.69%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now up only +0.5%. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is up a sharpish +1.3%. Tokyo however has opened down -0.7%. Hong Kong is down -0.6% but Shanghai is only down -0.1% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.2% at its open. South Korea is little-changed. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +1.5% and the Nasdaq up +2.1%.
OIL PRICES FIRM
American oil prices have firmed +US$1.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$81/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$84.50/bbl and up +US$1.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few trades so far today and the price has held at $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is down just -US$3/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4059/oz. Silver is now just on US$58.50/oz and up +50 USc from the same time.
NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps against the USD from yesterday, still at just on 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.4 and down -20 bps.
BITCOIN HOLDS FIRMISH
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,744 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.
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43 Comments
Iranian begging Donald for peace should be good for another 1% surge on Wall St.
"Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has attacked a US military base in Kuwait, a source familiar with the details confirmed toThe Jerusalem Post on Tuesday morning."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-attacks-us-kuwait-vessel…-
ASB says Debbie Mills has been appointed Executive General Manager for Modernisation subject to Reserve Bank approval
Has an M.A. in Math from Cambridge so obviously no slouch. Looking at her background, worked for Lloyds on change management in Spain before and during the GFC era (Lloyds being a vehicle for money laundering at the time).Then at Bankwest in WA (BankWest owned by CBA now), which likes to be seen as a progressive or innovation-forward bank, especially in digital banking and operating-model change. However, public complaints and review sites show recurring criticism about long wait times, branch closures, app/support frustration, and access problems in its online-only model.
It took ASB 14 months to learn how to send notifications via alternate channels during the Covid period. They also like to think of themselves as progressive and innovative, but they're not really. Fat and lazy from the Ponzi.
I'm still waiting for the new ASB securities app. It's been a long time coming. No release date I think. But hopefully will be good
I thought they had released the cmc markets one ? Was it just an announcement of an announcement
I thought CMC through ASB was up and running. I use it directly (through Aussie). Opened an ETrade Aussie account that was sold to ANZ who recently sold it to CMC.
Nah, pretty sure it's not up and running. But I do think they will be able to access some other countries' markets to compete with Sharesies
US SPR down to 304mbs (Not yet confirmed).
If they had nothing else,15 days supply.
Sign of the times:
Qantas considers outsourcing as many as 1,000 jobs to India through partnership with consulting giant Accenture.
Accenture makes out like bandit on 2nd-rate or non-solution that "cuts costs" for the business but doesn't necessarily improve the business or the value proposition.
https://www.news24.com.au/business/tech-and-innovation/qantas-considers…
Interesting comments in the AI data centre article. Hard to know why we wouldn't want to export electricity via data centres if possible.
The people that complain about our poor balance of trade seem to be the same people that are anti investment.
Because the punters pay for the inference to Irish based tax dodges?
They still pay for the electricity. Tax on the generation build, tax on power company profits, and better still governmemt may also own 50% of the generation.
I would rather see it used in saw mills
do you know how few people work in a 1 GW DC?
well datagrid expect to employ 50 people, but i presume that's for the initial 280MW build. Might need a dozen more if they get to 1 GW?
They'll say that, then after approval is given, they will revise it to 2 people...
Is it a net benefit if the increased cost of electricity also reduces other industry (and exports and the subsequent increase in imports) not to mention the general 'inflationary' impact on the base cost of living?
Exports at any cost are not necessarily wise.
It doesn't necessarily mean increased cost of electricity. And even if it does, that isn't much different to the likes of dairy exports which result in us paying higher costs for dairy than if we kept it all.
It is very different....one is a feeder cost to all output...the other is a commodity we can choose to purchase or not.
Land is also a feeder cost to all output, dairy has increased the cost of land. It also uses water, fertiliser, roads, labour etc driving up those costs.
Banks willingness to lend to dairy has indeed increased the cost of (suitable) farmland, but that is not an input to all industry and living in NZ....just a lot of....and two wrongs do not make a right, or even desireable.
That is one of the silliest comments - perhaps do some of the reading I suggested?
WE wouldn't be exporting electricity - someone else, an overseas owner, would be coining it.
Who complains about out 'poor balance of trade'?
And investment isn't inputting; it's food-in-the-door-ing to be able to syphon, out.
Ex-vestment would be a truer word.
You are not one of the ones I was referring to. I imagine you'd be happy if we exported nothing and imported nothing (although you wouldn't be able to view this website).
But many on here go on about how great farming is and how we need more of it. Not sure how data centres are much different, if anything more renewable and less labour intensive.
Would you at least concede that data centres would be a more sustainable long term export than dairy?
No.
We can ask which is more unsustainable? Neither are sustainable.
Sure answer that then.
I think a good place for you to start, would be Donella Meadow's Thinking in Systems.
It's a free download.
No point in peddling intensely, while remaining uneducated.
no PDK this was dumber
They still pay for the electricity. Tax on the generation build, tax on power company profits, and better still governmemt may also own 50% of the generation.
No wonder hardly anyone comments here any more. Any attempt to make a comment other than "housing is ponzy", "world is going to end", "government is bad", "the old days were better", etc is not debated just berated.
Are data centres a good idea? I don't know. But worth a bit of a debate than "dumb comment"
"Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for July 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) down 2% to 49%, maintaining a clear lead over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition, down 1% to 41%.
In addition, a further 10%, up 3% support independents and parties outside Parliament – the highest level of support for parties not represented in Parliament since the last election."
"National-led Government set to win most seats but fall short of a majority with 59 seats"
= TOP on 8% support will hold balance of power
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10281-nz-national-voting-intention-j…
Same right across the First World.
The incumbents cannot deliver for the masses. Because we have hit the Limits to Growth. There are no tools which can alter that.
So the promises yin-yanged for a while, then belief faded.
Thus Farage, Trump, Binface and Top.
The incumbents cannot deliver for the masses.
No, IMO they choose not to.
Mamdani is one to watch - a totally different approach - beholden to no one, and he's enacted and/or proposed some seriously clever/radical ideas.
I wish him and NYC nothing but success - if it works for the majority of NYorker's - it (innovation in politics) will catch on.
New York is totally unsustainable, ex fossil input. And attendant: ex an intact financial system.
I'd rather have folk like him and Jacinda Ardern in control, than on-behalf robots like Luxon, but none of them can overcome thermodynamics.
"Mamdani is one to watch - a totally different approach - beholden to no one, and he's enacted and/or proposed some seriously clever/radical ideas."
Radical yes, clever ?
https://nypost.com/2026/06/08/opinion/zohran-mamdanis-disdain-for-nyc-b…
He does have a comprehensive economic plan, but of course it has been buried in committee, KKNZ.
The New York Post
opinion piece presents a disgracefully biased opinion piece hatchet job of Mamdani by framing economic challenges solely as a result of executive disdain, and ignoring structural legislative challenges, where reform bills were stalled in committees
.
By omitting the context of these legislative bottlenecks, the editorial intentionally constructs a narrative of hostility rather than a fair assessment of how systemic roadblocks made it impossible for him to even begin these reforms.
The bills were buried, just as he will be too if he ever gets even remotely close to getting a PBS through to legislation.
The private banking cartels will take him out, just as they do with any figure that questions the validity of their monopoly on creating money that they have clung to for more 113 years.
Exactly, Kate.
And as long as we allow the privately owned banking cartels create money out of thin air and charge us billions of dollars of unearned rent, when the MS could be created as a public utility, then we get what we voted for - an eternal debt trap.
Well spotted re Mamdani - he continues to support the creation of a municipal public utility bank to redirect public funds and interest away from Wall street into a city-controlled institution.
His aim is to unlock capital for affordable housing , small businesses and public infrastructure, in a wealth building and local self-reliance agenda.
Predictably the NY Public Banking Act (Assembly Bill A6268) failed. It was referred to the Assembly Banks Committee, where is has remained stuck, without advancing to a full floor vote.
The Bank of NY City Act (A11513) is a city-specific mechanism introduced in May 2026, designed to let municipalities of over 1 million residents form public banks. It was passed to the Committee on Banks and remains dead for the active session cycle.
This fits an historical pattern - prior iterations of the framework such as the Senate Bill S1754 (2023-2024), which expired in committee at the conclusion of past legislative sessions.
Its what they do to keep society on the eternal debt treadmill - all so that the status quo billionaire club that constitutes a minuscule, ~0.00035% of the population, can continue to rob us blind.
Until we deploy the PBS (Public Banking Solution) nothing will change.
By the way, a similar PBS model worked for the State of North Dakota - their state owned Bank of North Dakota, based in Bismark, has been a stunning success.
For over 107 years it has been the legal depository for all state funds, and it uses these deposits to fund development, agriculture, small businesses, and state infrastructure projects.
It has been phenomenally successful in helping the state through all the private bank pump-and-dump schemes - eg, in 2008, by leveraging a secure state-mandated deposit base, the BND counter-cyclically expanded its loan portfolio by 31%, in direct contrast to the credit withdrawal policies of the private institutions.
So on housing, mortgage rates increase, house prices are 'crazy', and there is masses of stock for sale, many empty and 'open to offers'. Will we see a real crash, as in 15-20% price falls? I ask having lived in a nation where talk of a crash back in 2007 was viewed as stupid, and 'there is no evidence to suggest the market is overblown'
Prices fell by 20% over 2008-2010.
Those comments on the electricity market were a bit premature, $5000/MWh at 19:30 and currently $3000 despite hydro storage sitting at record levels for the time of year.
no wind, no solar at 19:30
just full lakes, the cold and dryness are in metvuw forecasts for all to see
plenty of gas and coal and forwarning too as you say. Quite common in a wet year apparently. Thermal plants cant be bothered turning on for a short peak.
Yes indeed, considering it takes ~6hrs to heat up huntly to any meaningful generation output so it is a large endeavour to get it fired up, as well as an expensive one.
And we haven't hit the forecast tight periods yet
Affected Dates and Times: Wed 05 Aug 2026 07:30 - 08:30
AND Wed 05 Aug 2026 18:00 - 19:30
AND Thu 06 Aug 2026 07:30 - 08:30
https://static.transpower.co.nz/public/interfaces/can/CAN%20Potential%2…
What do the forward price curves look like?
📉
You need spot prices to rip sometimes at peak to justify those batteries and hydro upgrades.
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