A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; ANZ raises rates, Auckland housing market hibernating, retail spending inches up, retail pay stays very low, credit cards fade, swaps stable, NZD dips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ announced increases for all its fixed rates to 3 years. Bank of Baroda also raised some rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ also said it will raise TD rates for terms 6-24 months. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HIBERNATING HOUSING MARKET
Auckland's largest realtor said the housing market in their region was 'in hibernation' during July. They report sales dipped lower and prices moved sideways in the month.

TURNING UP
ANZ says it is seeing better consumer spending patterns in its July card data tracking. That showed a +0.5% lift in July (seasonally adjusted), with annual growth rising from 5.8% to 6.1%. Most categories saw higher spend compared to June. Spending on motor vehicles and fuels fell -0.8% from the prior month, and non-retail trades and goods and services also slipped, but both following strong lifts the month before. Durables and hospitality saw the largest monthly increases, up 2.3% and 2.0%, both coming off declines in June. All store types in the hospitality category lifted. A lift in spend on accommodation and vehicle rental is a good sign for a tourism rebound.

CAR SALES DOMINATED BY NEVs
UPDATE: July new car sales were 8736 and +11.7% higher than year-ago levels. A record 68.8% of all new car sales were NEV's and total EVs now exceed 100,000 on our roads - a tiny share still, but it is expanding fast all the same. But new commercial vehicle sales at 11,663 were -17% lower than a year ago. Used car imports were unchanged on that basis. 

IN DECLINE
Credit cards are losing favour, especially with younger people, as digital payments rise in popularity. See our report here.

CONSUMER GRIPES
Every two years the Commerce Commission and MBIE commission IPSOS to survey consumers on their normal buying experiences when they interact with businesses. The 2026 edition found that dealing with car transactions with private sellers generated the most problems, followed by buying groceries, dealing with a rest home, dealing with a car dealer and then home maintenance. The transactions generating the least dissatisfaction were buying petrol, banking & financial services, buying a non-electric household product, entertainment, and personal services.

UPGRADED
Bridging finance specialist and NBDT General Finance has had its Equifax credit rating upgraded to BB+ with a Stable Outlook. BB+ is a sub-investment grade rating but just one step away from investment grade. General Finance is covered by the Deposit Compensation Scheme. (The only Non-Bank Deposit Taker (NBDT) with an investment grade credit rating is Liberty Financial.)

ENDEMIC LOW PAY
The overall average retail wage has risen to $30.94 per hour, up +1% on last year, according to the 2026 Wages Guide from Retail NZ, the retail sector lobby group. They report there are 222,400 Kiwis working across 29,505 retail businesses. The average they note is "above the Minimum Wage ($23.95) and Living Wage ($28.95)" but if their 'average' is only 7% higher than the Living Wage, they must have tens of thousands of employees at or below that.

NZX50 FIRMISH AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% today, but down -0.3% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.8% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +9.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up a strong +2.0% so far today. Briscoes, Vista, Gentrack and Oceania lift the NZX50 despite declines from Kathmandu, Napier Port, SkyCity casino and Kiwi Property Group.

MANAGEMENT CHANGES AT ASB
ASB says Debbie Mills has been appointed Executive General Manager for Modernisation subject to Reserve Bank approval. Mills will; "bring together ASB’s transformation initiatives to build a simple, modern bank with improved customer experiences." Mills has been leading ASB’s core banking transformation. David Bullock will continue as Executive General Manager for Technology, Data and AI, ASB says. ASB has also hired Tiffany Ryan as General Manger for Financial Crime Operations. Ryan moves from SkyCity, where she has been Group General Manager of Financial Crime.

RECORDING 'NORMAL'
We note electricity prices when they are extreme. But we should also balance that with what is 'normal' like today. Prices are in a low range, well under $100/MWhr nationwide with strong generation from hydro, geothermal and wind. The emissions profile is excellent. The market is functioning properly.

DAIRY COMMODITY PROSPECTS
There is a full dairy auction tomorrow and the expectations are mixed. The important powders may actually firm by +1% or +2%. But AMF and butter prices are likely to take a beating (-6% ?).

AUSSIES SPEND UP ON EVs & TRAVEL
In Australia, household spending rose +0.8% in June from may to be +6.0% higher than year-ago levels. This is a very consistent rising trend from September 2024 when it was at under +1% from the prior year. This high gain was largely due to increased spending on cars, especially EVs, and for travel..

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may have softened very slightly but will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.95% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from yesterday at 4.97%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at to 1.71%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.80% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.75%, and down -1 bp from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +7 bps at 4.74%.) The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.69%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now up only +0.5%. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is up a sharpish +1.3%. Tokyo however has opened down -0.7%. Hong Kong is down -0.6% but Shanghai is only down -0.1% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.2% at its open. South Korea is little-changed. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +1.5% and the Nasdaq up +2.1%.

OIL PRICES FIRM
American oil prices have firmed +US$1.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$81/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$84.50/bbl and up +US$1.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few trades so far today and the price has held at $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is down just -US$3/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4059/oz. Silver is now just on US$58.50/oz and up +50 USc from the same time.

NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps against the USD from yesterday, still at just on 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.4 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN HOLDS FIRMISH
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,744 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».