A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; Factories still expanding, migration modest, more winter visitors, consumer inflation expectations ease but stay elevated, swaps hold, NZX flat, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has raised all its fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS has raised many of its TD rates too. And this earlier update may be helpful. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

STILL EXPANDING, JUST LESS SO
The BNZ/BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) fell back in July, but still remains in expansionary territory. This returns the PMI close to its levels at the start of the year, before the onset of conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent oil price uncertainty. The June result was unusually strong and this July expansion validates the unusual June shift up. New orders fell back but are still expanding. The big influences are from production and deliveries. Canterbury held up strongly, Wellington and Otago are both in contraction now (Wellington never left it). Auckland's expansion fell back similarly to the national shift.

MODEST RISE
Net migration added +17,625 people to the population in the year to June (another Whakatāne), but that masks the fact that almost -64,000 left the country long-term in the same period.

POPULAR WITH OTHERS, TOUGHER FOR US TO TRAVEL
Overseas visitor arrivals in June were now back to 95% of their pre-pandemic levels. We welcomed 201,900 visitors in June, an increase of +15,100 from June 2025. The biggest changes were in arrivals from Australia (up +13,200), China (up +3,100), but there were fewer from the United States (down -1,200). The arrivals from Australia (108,200) and Singapore (6,200) were new record highs for a June. On the flip side, returning Kiwis who were on holiday were down -5.2% on the prior year (except to the Cook Islands/Avaiki Nui), suggesting that Kiwi travelers are suffering budget constraints.

A SMALL RETRACING
The RBNZ's survey of household expectations shows little change in the current very high perception of inflation (median 5.0%), but it is lower for expectations over the next year (4.5% from 5.0%) or the next two years (3.4% from 4.0%). From the RBNZ's point of view, these are still high but tracking in the 'right' direction. But clearly, households feel inflation is much higher than those in yesterday's quarterly survey of forecasters, economists and industry leaders. The household survey found a still-low expectation households would miss a mortgage payment, but a declining chance they could find a new job.

NO CHANGE
The Reserve Bank held loan-to-value-ratio restrictions on banks' home lending at current settings, seeing housing risks as 'contained' after an updated review.

MODEST INFLATION PRESSURE
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets in July was slower than the prior month, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs Grocery Supplier Cost Index showing an average +1.9% increase in what suppliers charged in July 2026, compared with a year earlier. In July 2025 the increase then was +2.2%. “July’s result was the slowest annual increase since February 2025, driven by a number of cost decreases as some fuel adjustment factors reversed out, and as product cost increases haven’t been as intense as first feared when conflict in the Middle East sent various input costs soaring," Infometrics said.

NZX50 ENDS QUIETLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.1% today but down -0.1% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +5.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is essentially unchanged so far today. Gentrack, Stride Property, Napier Port and Vista Group lead today's gainers while EBOS, Tourism Holdings, SkyTV and Fletcher are the main decliners.

OFFENSIVE TRADING OK NOW ANYWHERE
As part of its war on unnecessary regulation, the Government has culled Schedule 3 from the Health Act. This require businesses undertaking "offensive trades" it get a license from the local authority to do so. Now any of these activities can be done anywhere. Good luck if you live nearby.

EYES ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
The RBNZ's latest Nowcast update shows that we can expect a tiny +0.1% economic expansion in Q2-2026 when it is reported mid-September. This comes after Q1-2026 delivered a +0.8% expansion. And that we are on track for possibly another +0.8% rise in Q3-2026. That suggests year-on-year growth of +2.3% in the year to June and +2.2% in the year to September 2026.

NO LONGER A ONE-WAY BET
Australia said the number of new home loans in Q2-2026 fell -5.4% and their value fell -5.2% following the three RBA rate increases in the year, and their May Budget announcement of changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax rules. The biggest pullback was by investors who were rorting the system under the old rules. This has had the salutary effect of capping the unbridled rise in house prices and giving them a chance to make housing affordable again. But they will need stamina to keep these rules in place for an extended period because the real estate and mortgage broking lobby is working hard to undermine them. At least some bankers see the pause as a necessary handbrake.

A WAY TO STAMP OUT MORTGAGE FRAUD
And staying in Australia, a parliamentary inquiry has recommended that "enabling banks to access data held by the Australian Tax Office when seeking to accurately assess income levels provided in loan applications would improve lending integrity". (See para 2.41, page 20.)

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.96% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has dipped -1 bp to 4.96%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.86% today and unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.69% and also unchanged.. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate down -5 bps at 4.65%.) And the UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 4.64%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now little-changed from yesterday. The ASX200 has opened its Friday trade down -0.8%. Tokyo has opened up +0.8%. Hong Kong has opened down -0.9% and Shanghai is down -0.4% at its open. Singapore is up +0.1% in early Friday trade today. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +0.7% to a new record high, and the Nasdaq was up +0.8% and also near its record high.

OIL PRICES DIP
American oil prices have dipped -50 USc from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just under US$81.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$87/bbl and down -US$1.

CARBON PRICE QUIET & SOFT
There have been very few few trades today, but the price has dipped to $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$89/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4317/oz. Silver is also lower, down more than -US1.50 at just under US$64/oz.

NZD RECOVERS SOME
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps against the USD from yesterday at this time, now just on 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 to 83.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.3 and up +20 bps.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,402 and off just -0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».