US data mixed although durable goods orders positive; Meta concedes child harm, to pay large penalty; China rolls out support financing; Australia inflation falls less than expected; UST 10yr at 4.67%; gold dips and oil firm; NZ$1 = 59.4 USc

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of more data that suggests the US economy is not regaining any momentum, and may be about to be tested by record high diesel prices.

US mortgage application levels dipped again last week from the prior week, mainly due to much lower refinancing levels as the high (6.78%) mortgage interest rates stay firm at these levels and a one year high.

Meanwhile US PCE inflation stayed up in July at 3.7% when it was expected to show a small dip. The month-on-month rise was much more than expected. Personal spending rose +5.8% while personal disposable incomes were up +4.2%.from a year ago. So the squeeze continues, and although masked by inflation, many households will be feeling it. And US diesel prices are now at record highs.

US GDP Q2-2026 second estimate came in at a modest +1.5%, and unchanged from its first estimate. Marginally stronger consumer spending was offset by weaker investment and more imports.

The US July durable goods order report came in positively, up +12.9% from the same month a year ago. But without aircraft or defense, it was up +8.7%. Capital goods orders on the same basis were up +13.5%, probably reflecting data center activity.

US crude oil stocks were little-changed last week, a bit less than the modest rise expected. Diesel stocks have hit record lows.

Meanwhile, Meta has agreed to an US$18 bln penalty to be paid over the next decade to resolve claims it designed its social media platforms to addict children. It will change the way it interacts with children. Four of the states who brought the court claim - California, Colorado, Kentucky and New Jersey - were expected to seek substantial civil penalties as well.

In China, they have opened applications for an ¥800 bln policy-based financing tool for local government projects to shore up its slowing economic growth. But there are questions about how much impact this will have in 2026.

Singaporean industrial production extended its very positive run in July, up +5.8% from the same month a year ago and gains similar to most months in 2026.

In Australia, inflation fell in July as expected but not by as much as expected. Their June 3.8% rate fell to 3.5% in July but still well above the expected 3.2% rate assumed by financial markets. That gave the AUD a bounce, likely on the basis that the RBA's tolerance for still-high inflation may be about to get tested. The next RBA rate review is on September 29 however, and the August CPI data won't actually be known by then (September 30) - by the markets, at least. The RBA's inflation target is "between 2 and 3 percent", but it has been over 3% consistently every month for more than a year now.

Global wheat prices are up sharply again today, and to new post-pandemic highs, as Black Sea shipments from both Russia and Ukraine have essentially stopped and prospects for resumption look grim.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +3 bps from yesterday at this time. The 30 year yield is at 5.19%, up +1 bp. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +44 bps (unchanged). Their 1-5 curve is now at +37 bps (+2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +97 bps (+3 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.69%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 2.89%, unchanged. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.05%, up +7 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.71%, also down -4 bps.

Wall Street is little-changed on the S&P500 (+0.1%), while the Nasdaq up a similar +0.1%. European markets started mixed between London's -0.1% rise and Paris's +0.3%. Yesterday Tokyo ended up +0.6%. Hong Kong was also up +0.6% as was Shanghai. Singapore dipped -0.2%. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session down -0.4%. The NZX50 ended up +0.1%.

The price of gold is now at US$4603/oz, down -US$45 from yesterday at this time. Silver has fallen -US$1 to just over US$68/oz.

Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at US$88.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have inched up with six ships exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and eleven entering for new loads (0 dark), all Iran linked. The Red Sea activity is still low at about 20 each way at the Yemen chokepoint.

The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at just over 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9, down -30 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,459 and down -0.5% from yesterday at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/-1.1%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».