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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; dairy prices dip, lighter hospo regulation coming, new option for rich immigrants, copper price hits record high, swaps stable, NZX dips, NZD soft, & more

Economy / news
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; dairy prices dip, lighter hospo regulation coming, new option for rich immigrants, copper price hits record high, swaps stable, NZX dips, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB said its floating mortgage rate will rise +25 bps to mirror the OCR. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SLIGHTLY SOFTER PRICES
The overnight Pulse dairy auction brought slightly softer prices except for WMP which was little-changed. The dips in the other commodities were cushioned by the lower NZD.

LOWER STANDARDS ON THE WAY
The Ministry for Regulation has issued a report that claims to have identified a number of areas that need to be 'simplified'. Among them are pullbacks on food safety because that are "not always effective, efficient, or proportionate to risk". Among the food recommendations (page 52) are to require less record-keeping, make the time between assessment reviews longer (like two+ years), and remove the requirement for regular licensing.

ANOTHER OPTION
The Government has opened a build to rent option for wealthy investor immigrants who will be able to meet their visa investment obligations by investing in approved managed funds for build-to-rent developments. More build-to-rent options will add renting capacity, but usually at high rents to enable the yield math to work.

NZX50 MARGINALLY LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.1% today. It is up +0.3% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +5.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2% so far today. Kathmandu, Napier Port, Stride Property and SkyTV gain, while Gentrack, SkyCity casino, Serko and Scales retreat.

A SHARP DROP IN PORK PRICES KEEPS A LID ON CHINESE INFLATION
China's August CPI inflation rate came in very low again at +0.8% from a year ago, although a bit higher than for July, and marginally higher than expected. Food prices actually fell -0.6% on the same year-on-year basis, but within that beef prices were up +5.3% and lamb prices up +6.3%. Dairy products were -1.4% lower however, along with prices for port, alcohol, and vegetables. Medical services, communications services, and fuel were all up like elsewhere.

NOT INSULATED
Meanwhile, China's August producer prices rose faster, up +3.8% from a year ago - so the July easing was essentially reversed. Industrial prices were up +5.8% with some metals and fuel components up more than +20% from a year ago. So key components of their export-oriented industries are under the cost pump.

A FIVE YEAR HIGH
The Japanese business sentiment index for manufacturers known as the Reuters Tankan index rose to its highest reading since December 2021, and before that, 2018, in a show of rising confidence. This survey predates the official Tankan survey which isn't due until October 1, 2026.

A VERY PRECIOUS SEMI-PRECIOUS METAL
Overnight the copper price pushed up to a new all-time record, just shy of US$15,000/tonne (NZ$25.50/kg). It has dipped marginally in the hours that have followed, but that is nothing more than its regular volatility. The trend is still strongly up. (But chartists might sense that it will top out at US$15,500/tonne before establishing a new trend.) Homeowners with copper spouting might be nervous.

THE POINTLESSNESS OF STARTING A TARIFF WAR
Trump has taken exception to Canada reacting and retaliating to his tariffs on them. He says he will hit Canada with more  and higher tariffs. Central to the new American actions will be dairy products.

FAREWELL
LIV Golf has filed for bankruptcy, owing millions to all and sundry, including the players who chased the outsized money on the circuit. (LIV Gold was also championed by Trump at his courses.) But backers Saudi Arabia decided it was going no-where, especially as crowds and viewers yawned, so they stopped shoveling money into it.

SWAPS IN FIRM HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be marginally firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was unchanged at 3.06% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 5.20%. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.88%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.82% and up +2 bp from yesterday at this time. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was down -2 bps to 4.76% on Tuesday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.80%, and up +1 bp from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The NZX50 is now down -0.1% from yesterday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -0.2%. Tokyo has opened up +0.3%. But the KOSPI has risen +1.5% at its open today. However Hong Kong has opened down -0.2% while Shanghai is up  +0.2% at its open. Singapore is down -0.6% in early Wednesday trade today. Wall Street was lower at -0.6% on the S&P500 and the Nasdaq was down -0.3%..

OIL PRICES ALMOST AT US$100/bbl
American oil prices are higher from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark up US$2 to just over US$94.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same at just under US$99.50/bbl. 

CARBON PRICE FALLS -10%
There have been many large trades reported so far today and the price is now -$5 lower at $45/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$47/oz from yesterday, now at US$4378/oz. Silver is holding at US$66.50/oz.

NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 81.1 AUc. Against the euro we also down -10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.8 and down -10 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN STABLE
The bitcoin price is now at US$78,607 and down -0.4% from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been low, at just on +/- 0.7%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ
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Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA
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Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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6 Comments

LIV Golf has filed for bankruptcy, owing millions to all and sundry, including the players who chased the outsized money on the circuit.

Bit of irony here. Alissa Heinerscheid was the director of marketing for Bud Light, when the dreadful brand campaign / repositioning destroyed brand sales and equity. Heinerscheid was touted as a wunderkind of brand management and marketing before she was dropped after the fiasco. 

She later joined LIV Golf where her remit focused on the league’s team business, branded content, and then team operations/strategy. Another failure for Heinerscheid.

The Orange Swan would be horrified to know she was on the LIV team, but he was likely unaware. Also interesting that a "champion of woke" had no bones about going to work for a Trump-associated organization. 

 

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20 years ago, my oldest son asked what I'd advise him to store his income as?

I told him a shipping container full of physical copper, was as likely a bet and as tradeable a useful resource, as I could think of. 

Too obvious. 

 

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Better then even chance it would have been stolen in the 20 year period based on the ingenuity or the meth addicts metal thieves I have seen locally.  Some of the theft is incredibly brazen. But then addiction will do that.

Would it have been insured?

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Yes. Copper spouting stolen from old Napier Hospital four (plus) storied building. Believed to have been at night by thieves who must have had no fear and steel balls.

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You jest, surely? 

A physical hedge against the physical future, vs proxy? 

 

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One of Aussie's biggest private credit funds Metrics is struggling to find buyer for giant residential construction site in Sydney after the project developer defaulted on a $270m loan. 

No, this is not Bathla. Australia YMCI, a developer owned primarily by the provincial government of Yunnan in China, bought the mega site from Goodman for $660 million in 2016. It had ambitions to build a 3000-apartment precinct, but completed only 421, which have been plagued by quality issues.

The contagion is spreading. And even KPMG has its dirty mitts involved.

 https://archive.ph/xJjHO#selection-2083.0-2083.272

 

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