A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes but big wholesale increases, truckometer declines, factory PMI stays positive, wool prices lift, Japanese PPI jumps, swaps jump, NZD lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has made two minor tweak hikes to their 12 and 18 month rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE BOND MARKET IS GROWLING
There is severe upward pressure on global interest rates today. This is an interim review about mid-day. There are more updates in the items below. (Financial markets are essentially reacting negatively to incompetent American fiscal management which prioritises short-term sugar hits over proper long term responsibilities.)

WEAK SIGNALS
The August ANZ truckometer is flashing declining signals. The Light Traffic Index fell -1.2% in August and is down -0.7% compared to a year ago. The Heavy Traffic Index fell -2.2% in the month as the lift off the winter low was smaller than normal, but it is still up +1.3% from a year ago.

THE EXPANSION CONTINUES
Although it dipped in August from July, the BNZ/BusinessNZ factory PMI was still positive, extending its positive run to 14 consecutive months. BNZ noted that the manufacturing industry expansion appears to be broadening despite the lower headline number. Every component rose again, except employment.

BETTER SIGNALS
As you may know by now, Stats NZ is getting ready to produce the CPI monthly, rather than quarterly. The preparation for thei change involves different ways of collecting the data, and much work on this sample collecting is either underway or completed and is in testing. Recently Stats NZ briefed the RBNZ on their change work, and you can see the briefing paper here.

NZX50 ENDS THE WEEK WEAK
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.6% today. It is down -2.4% for the past 5 trading sessions. But it is up +2.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +3.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.6% so far today. There are 38 gainers led by Briscoes, The Warehouse, Kiwi Property, and Mercury. There have been 45 decliners led by Gentrack, Vulcan Steel, F&P Healthcare, and Spark

BACK IN AN UP TREND
Wool prices have lifted again, with PGG Wrightson's strong wool indicator up +20c. Restricted auction volumes, largely resulting from adverse weather conditions across much of the country, generated strong competition at the most recent sales resulting in favourable outcomes for sellers across all wool categories. Australian wool exporters were again well represented and active across all fine wool styles.

A MIXED PICTURE
Meanwhile, beef and lamb demand is struggling. Silver Fern Farms reports that global beef markets continue to send mixed signals. While China, the UK and parts of the Middle East are providing support, the US market remains the key concern. Uncertainty around additional tariff-free import volumes and subdued buyer activity is what they see. Sheepmeat demand in China remains steady but cautious ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival. Market sentiment in Europe remains subdued. Market conditions in the Middle East remain constrained by ongoing logistics disruptions and fragile customer confidence. In North America, chilled lamb demand has continued to strengthen. However, seasonality, livestock availability and existing commitments constrain our ability to supply. Conditions in the UK have weakened further.

COUNTDOWNS
There are now 104 days until Christmas, 72 of them working days. There are now 40 calendar days to endure until the general election.

RISING AT A HEADY PACE
Japanese producer prices rose +7.6% in August from a year ago, following an upwardly revised +7.7% increase in the prior month, which had been the fastest pace since February 2023. Although fuel is a big part of these rises it is the only part, and the outsized rises have been consistent now in each month since April. Despite that, Japanese business sentiment rose to its highest level since 2021.

BIRD FLU UPDATE
Bird flu is still spreading in Australia, based on reported 'events'. Reporting by NZ MPI seems to have gone off the radar.

SWAPS JUMP
Wholesale swap rates will likely be much higher today on a growing bond sell-off. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +1 bp at 3.06% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up another outsized +9 bps at 5.37% and a new high since 2011. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +6 bps at 2.99% and a new 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.05% and up +14 bps from yesterday at this time and its highest since 2023. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +9 bps to 4.88% on Thursday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.98%, and up +13 bps from this time yesterday. That is now above the brief 2023 spike, and is now its highest since 2007..

EQUITIES LOWER
The NZX50 is now down -0.7% from yesterday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -1.3%. Tokyo has opened down -2.8%. The KOSPI has retreated -2.5% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -1.1% while Shanghai is down -1.8% at its open. Singapore is down -0.3% in early Friday trade today. Wall Street was lower by -0.6% on the S&P500 and the Nasdaq was down -0.7%..

OIL PRICES HIGHER
American oil prices are higher from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark up US$7 to just over US$103/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same at just on US$108/bbl.

CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
There have very few trades reported so far today. The price has held at $49.90/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$92/oz from yesterday, now at US$4323/oz. Silver is down -US$3 at US$63.50/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 81.3 AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at 50.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.5 and down -20 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,863 and down -1.9% from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/- 1.3%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».