A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; only minor TD rate changes again, service sector stunted, migration up from lows, tourism nears full recovery, farmer profitability strong, swaps flat, NZX down, NZD lower & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has made two minor tweak hikes to their 6 and 12 month rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

VERY MIXED
The latest service sector PSI for August is very mixed for a tame net gain. The expansion is modest, based on rising new orders, but the detail is troubling with most other components not growing much or retreating. Among the industries covered, there is weakness in retail, wholesale, property, and hospitality. Gains are in transport, communications, finance, and the health sector.

MIGRATION TURNS UP FROM LOW LEVELS TO MODEST LEVELS
There was a net migration gain of +20,350 people in the 12 months to July which is more than double the +9592 in the same 12 months last year, but less than half the long-term average.

VISITOR NUMBERS RISE
Annual short-term visitors were 256,600 in July, and have increased to 3.7 million in the July year. Despite the global tensions, demand for NZ tourism and a weaker NZD has been supporting the local economy. More than 64% of the monthly increase in tourist arrivals is accounted for by Australian (+8,000 to a record 134,900) and Chinese (+5,400) visitors. July 2026 arrivals amounted to 100% of pre-pandemic (July 2019) levels, the first month showing a full recovery from the pandemic. Arrivals over the year to July 2026 amounted to 95% of pre-pandemic, with full recovery on an annual basis potentially a year or more away, as the rate of recovery has slowed in 2026.

JAM TODAY, GRUEL TOMORROW
An updated Federated Farmers confidence survey of their members shows 'an incredibly positive result' around farm profitability, but with more of them not expecting it to last with nearly 30% of farmers expecting conditions to worsen.

SUPPLY-INDUCED RISE
Rabobank sees greater support to global dairy commodity prices and upside potential for the New Zealand farmgate milk price, and has raised its new season forecast to $10/kfMS, the highest of any dairy analyst at this time, and above Fonterra's current $9.25/kgMS.

LOOKING FOR HIGHER LOCAL CONSUMPTION
The avocado industry is looking ahead to a record season. Almost eight million trays are expected to enter domestic and export markets in 2026-27, worth around $160 mln at wholesale. They also point out that if local consumption from the current 3kg per person rises to Australia’s 4.7kg, it could grow the domestic market from about $60 mln to more than $90 mln annually.

LOW GROCERY INFLATION
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets in August was in-line with the result from last month, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average +1.9% increase in what suppliers charged in August 2026, compared with a year earlier.

NZX50 TURNS UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.6% today. It is down -2.1% for the past 5 trading sessions. But it is up +3.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +3.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.8% so far today. a2 Milk, Summerset, Napier Port and Sanford are gainers while Briscoes, Oceania, Vital Healthcare and Serko fall.

SWAPS HOLD SOFT
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed-to-a-little-softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +3 bps at 3.09% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has settles a minor -1 bp to 5.36%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.98%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.04% and down -2 bps from thsi morning. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +15 bps to 5.03% on Friday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.98%, and unchanged from this morning..

EQUITIES MIXED BUT FIRMISH
The NZX50 is now up +0.6% from Friday's close. The ASX200 has opened little-changed. Tokyo has opened down -0.8%. The KOSPI has retreated another full -2.0% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened up +0.2% while Shanghai is up +0.1% at its open. Singapore is also up just +0.1% in early Monday trade today. Wall Street futures suggest the S&P500 will open up +0.5% when trading resumes tomorrow.

OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices are higher from this morning with the WTI benchmark up US$3 to just under US$103/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same at just on US$107.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been some reasonable trades reported so far today. The price has held at $49/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$15/oz from this morning's open, now at US$4335/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$64/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time morning, now at 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 80.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -10 bps at just under 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.2 and down -20 bps from thsi morning.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$77,761 and up +0.6% from this morning. Volatility has been low, at just on +/- 0.8%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».