A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; consumers less downbeat, dairy prices hold, current account deficit shrinks, Silk quits, NZ Super stars again, India FTA voted up, swaps ease, NZX rises, NZD falls, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Liberty Finance has raised its fixed rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A TOUCH LESS DOWNBEAT
According to the Westpac MM consumer confidence Q3 survey, consumers across the country are feeling a bit less downbeat about the economic outlook. Even so, there is still a lot of nervousness about economic conditions and household spending is still very restrained in most of the main urban areas. However in some regions, strength in key export industries has boosted incomes and sentiment..

DAIRY PRICES DOWN IN USD, UP IN NZD
There was a full dairy auction overnight and prices slipped -1.1% overall in USD although are up +1.1% in NZD. Within that, there were some wide swings; butter fell -5.7%, but cheddar cheese was up +16.5%. Mozzarella was down -6.0%. However the powders only had small moves with SMP up +0.1% while WMP eased -0.8%. It seems unlikely that this auction would trigger any reassessment of farm gate payout forecasts.

BETTER THAN MARCH, WORSE THAN A YEAR AGO
The Q2-2026 current account deficit has come in at -$3.8 bln, or -3.2% of GDP, $666 mln less than in the March quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. The improvement was all due to a $712 mln narrowing in the primary income balance deficit. The primary income deficit is the difference between the income New Zealand earns from its investments overseas and the outflow of income from foreign investment in New Zealand. The goods deficit balance worsened by $416 mln. The services balance changed by $300 mln from a deficit in the March quarter to a surplus in the June quarter. In Q2-2025 the equivalent current account deficit was -$2.6 bln or -3.6% of GDP.  We should note that the Q2-2026 activity only saw the initial hit from oil prices. There will be much more to come and the Q3-2026 results will show a full hit.

SUBSTANTIAL BENEFITS
Meanwhile, our net international investment position improved substantially, with a $178.3 net liability to the rest of the world at the end of June (39% of GDP), down from a $191.7 bln liability at the end of March, and $212.9 bln at June 2025 (48.9% of GDP). Shifting this needle were substantial market and valuation changes in our offshore assets that went in our favour.

SHITIFICATION SURGE
The Department of Internal Affairs has published its 2025 Digital Messaging Transparency Report, revealing a +1,240% increase in reports of SMS message scams.

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.7% today so far. It is down -1.9% for the past 5 trading sessions. But it is up +3.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +2.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.4% so far today. Infratil, Briscoes, Vector and F&P Healthcare gain while Goodman, Vista Group, Precinct and Stride retreat.

NOT STAYING
At the RBNZ, Assistant Governor Karen Silk has decided to leave the RBNZ in December. A restructure of the management team will see two Assistant Governor roles being established in her wake.

OUTSIZED PERFORMANCE
NZ Super Fund has reported a return on investment of +$9.3 bln for the June 2026 year, reaching a total fund size of $94.4 bln. That was a +14% pre-tax return but after costs, which involved paying the most income tax of any other organisation.

SAME ARITHMETIC FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT?
After failing to find a new competitor prepared to enter the local supermarket industry to apply added competition, the National Party now says it want's to split up the locally-owned Foodstuffs group, on the untested idea that New World + Pack n Save + Woolworths will be more cost competitive than the Foodstuffs + Woolworths setup we now have - with unchanged store locations or branding differences. Hard to see.

FUEL STOCK UPDATE
Given that industry insiders are warning that global fuel stocks are getting worryingly low again, Trump's war seems to have no exit strategy, and Iran has effectively closed off the Strait of Hormuz, it is timely to reprise the MBIE fuel stock monitoring. We are a bit light on jet fuel, but other current stocks look ok at this time.

BI-PARTISAN AGREEMENT
The two major political parties came together today to pass the India-NZ Free Trade legislation, a key step to getting this deal in force. It is a deal originated in the last Labour-led government, and continued to fruition by the current National-led coalition. The minor parties grandstanded on the sidelines. (Its an election year, after all.)

MIXED JAPANESE DATA
In Japan, they said their exports rose +19.3% in August from a year ago, almost holding the unusually high July level and better than expected. Their imports were up +28% on the cost of oil, so their trade deficit rose, also more than expected. Meanwhile they reported disappointing machinery orders for July. They fell from June and by a bit more than expected to now be 'only' +11.2% higher than year-ago levels.

SWAPS RETREAT AFTER SURGE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +1 bp at 3.14% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has fallen back -5 bps to 5.36%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed again at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 3.02%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.05% and down -2 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +4 bps to 5.05% on Tuesday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.98%, and down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.

EQUITIES TREAD WATER AHEAD OF THE FED
The NZX50 is now up +0.7% from Tuesday's close and the best of the markets we follow. The ASX200 has opened up +0.2%. Tokyo has opened down -0.1%. The KOSPI has firmed +0.5% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -0.1% while Shanghai is little-changed at its open. Singapore is up +0.2% in early Wednesday trade today. Wall Street ended lower with the S&P500 down -0.4% and the Nasdaq was down -0.8%.

OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices are up +US$1.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$104.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +$1 at just on US$108/bbl. Both are getting very close to their April spikes, which was close to the pandemic spike levels.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS AGAIN
There have been better trading volumes so far today. The price has risen to $51.50/NZU and up +$1. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$18/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4329/oz. Silver is up +$1 at US$64.50/oz.

NZD LOWER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 57.5 USc and back down to its July dip. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 80.6 AUc. Against the euro we down -10 bps at just under 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 60.9 and down -10 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$75,821 and down -2.7% from yesterday. Volatility has been moderate, also at just on +/- 2.7%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».