A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; ASB raises some TD rates, minor economy growth, fewer homeowners trading up, reaction to the Fed's hike, Aussie population, swaps hold, NZX firm, NZD retreats, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB raised some term deposit rates. Details here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

TAILING OFF
The construction sector helped the economy grow +0.2% in the June quarter from the March quarter so that economic activity was +2.6% higher than a year ago. But there is a kicker; compared to the March quarter, real gross national disposable income was down -0.4% and real gross national disposable income per capita fell -0.6%. That cut into the year-on-year gains for that metric. In the year, real gross national disposable income rose +2.5%, while annual real gross national disposable income per capita increased +1.9%. This is all somewhat surprising (and disappointing) given that in mid-April, at the start of Q2-2026, Fonterra made its giant payments involving its capital return and special dividend. What would things have been like without that?

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.7% today so far. It is flat for the past 5 trading sessions. But it is up +4.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +3.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.3% so far today. Stride Property, AirNZ, Skellerup and Vital Healthcare gain while Briscoes, Sky TV, Ryman and Mainfreight decline.

SINGAPORE EXPORTS ZOOM
Singapore's electronics sector had a boom month in August helping power the country's non-exports to a +46% gain from the same month a year earlier. That was up very sharply from a downwardly revised +24.1% rise in July and far above forecasts of +35%. It was the twelfth straight month of expansion and the strongest growth since October 1988. The US was a small customer in August than July. But every other major country was a much larger customer (other than the EU).(Meanwhile their imports rose +39% but that includes oil.)

MORE PEOPLE
In Australia, they released updated population data today. This is a hot topic politically. Their population grew by +1.4% in the 12 months to March 2026, now 27.9 million people. That's 392,700 more than the same time in 2025. The natural increase was +100,000 and the net migration increase was +292,100 (and down from +309,500 in the previous year). The state with the biggest increase was Victoria (+109,500); the state with the fastest increase was Western Australia (+2.1%).

SUMMING UP
Now that we know the US Fed's decision (and it was unanimous for a hike now, and possibly more later), we can assess the financial market reactions in the hours that have followed. The US Treasury 10 year yield has held at 5%. The USD rose +0.5% (DXY measure). Wall Street dipped -0.5%. We should also note that Kevin Warsh's claim to be more restrained in Fed guidance was proven today to be empty. He couldn't help himself at his press conference. We learned from him that he thinks today's rise has “removed a dose of accommodation” from monetary policy. And that “This summer’s inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” All this from someone who came into the job wanting to cut rates as much as three times this year because monetary policy was too restrictive. So now we don't actually know how far up the US Fed rates will need to rise to quash inflation. Unclear communication.

SWAPS STABLE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be just a touch lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +1 bp at 3.15% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has fallen back another -3 bps to 5.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed again at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -3 bps at 2.99%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.03% and down -2 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was also down -3 bps to 5.02% on Wednesday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.01%, and up +3 bps from yesterday at this time.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now up another +0.8% from Wednesday's close and again the best of the markets we follow. The ASX200 has opened up +0.4%. Tokyo has opened up +0.1%. The KOSPI has firmed +0.2% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -1.0% while Shanghai is down -0.3% at its open. Singapore is up +0.5% in early Thursday trade today. Wall Street ended lower with the S&P500 down -0.5% and the Nasdaq was little-changed.

OIL PRICES HESITATE
American oil prices are down -US$2 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$102.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$106/bbl. Both are now off their April spikes.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS AGAIN
There have been better trading volumes again today. The price has risen +50c to $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US47/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4282/oz. Silver is down -$1 at US$63.50/oz.

NZD DOWN AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 57.2 USc and back down to its July dip. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 80.6 AUc. Against the euro we up +10 bps at just over 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 60.7 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN STOPS FALLING
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,391 and up +0.8% from yesterday. Volatility has been low, now at just on +/- 0.8%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».