Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank has raised its 6 month and one year TD rates, which takes its new one year 4.15% rate to a market-leading level for this term. Heartland Bank also raised some rates but not to the Rabobank levels. Details here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HIGHER NEW SEASON PAYOUT
Fonterra has narrowed its new season payout forecast range which raised the midpoint to $9.50/kgMS on 'recent improvements' in dairy prices.
MORE REINSURANCE, LOWER UNIT COST
General insurer Tower said it had lifted its reinsurance cover by $55 mln to $970 mln, and anticipates reinsurance premium expense will come down to 9.5% of Gross Written Premium in its 2027 financial year from 10.6% currently.
BACK TO THE FUTURE
Auckland’s rail network has recorded its busiest week ever in the first seven days of CRL services. A total of 528,007 train boardings were recorded between Sunday, September 13, and Saturday, September 19, beating the previous seven-day record of 504,380 set in pre-pandemic March 2019 by more than 23,000. So after spending $5.4 bln, patronage is back to levels it was seven years ago. The week before the CRL opened, Auckland’s rail network recorded 325,203 boardings. One week later, patronage was up by more than +60%. By the end of opening day, 56,757 train boardings had been recorded. Momentum continued to build throughout the week, peaking at 85,289 boardings on Thursday. The real test is how much easier it is to drive in peak hours. There are 900,000 registered vehicles in Auckland and many are involved in commute and work-related activities.
FMA WARNS TSB
The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) has issued a warning about TSB Bank's conduct after it charged fees on business cheque transactions that weren’t subject to fees according to its own terms and conditions. Between 30 November 2017 and 20 November 2023, TSB charged a $0.25 fee on some business cheque transactions that shouldn’t have attracted the fee. The error affected 7,309 customer accounts. TSB has paid back a total of $1.73 mln, which covers the fees, related interest and charges, and compensation for the use of that money over time. TSB changed the wording of its Business Cheque terms and conditions in November 2017. The change was meant to make the fees clearer, but it left out some transactions that the bank’s systems kept charging for. So what customers were told they would be charged and what they were actually charged didn’t match for an extended period.
WE'VE STILL GOT OUR CREDIT CARDS ON LOW VELOCITY
Domestic billings on locally issued cards were $4.0 bln in July, up +0.9% from June-26, and up +3.2% from July last year, so rising less than the 4.1% inflation in that period. Travelers in New Zealand are providing the impetus. Billings here on overseas issued cards increased +18.5% from last month to $521.9 mln in July. Annually, billings on overseas issued cards were up +20.7%.
NZX50 GAINS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% today so far. But for the past 5 trading sessions it is up +1.7%. It is up +6.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.8% so far today. Vulcan Steel, Oceania, a2 Milk and Skellerup rise while Serko, Port of Tauranga, Vista Group and Fletcher retreat.
MORE WHOLESALE FUNDRAISING
Kiwibank says it is in the bond market looking for 5 year funding of at least $100 mln (plus oversubscriptions) and they are willing to pay swap plus 75 bps margin. (For reference, the last bank to have a similar offer was BNZ in early September who sought the same $100 mln plus oversubscriptions. They ended up taking $1.25 bln at a margin of 68 bps.)
TREND REVERSAL
In the Feb/Mar/April quarter, NZGB bond trading transaction level averaged about $80 bln per week in this period on secondary markets. But they have fallen since, now averaging just $70 bln over the past four week in a noticeable step lower. In the same period last year they averaged $55 bln per week but that wasn't a change from the upward track that started in Q3-2024. That rising trend seems to have ended in Q1-2026. We are now tracking lower.
SWAPS HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed to firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +1 bp at 3.16% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has risen +2 bps to 5.29%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed again at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is still at 2.98%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.99% and up 2 bps from Friday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was also down -5 bps to 4.95% on Friday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.97%, and down -3 bps from this morning.
EQUITIES FIRMER
The NZX50 is now up +0.4% from Friday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -0.1%. Tokyo is closed for a holiday today. The KOSPI has risen +1.6% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened up +0.4% while Shanghai is up +0.5% at its open. Singapore is up +0.3% in early Monday trade today. Wall Street futures suggest the S&P500 will open overnight strongly, up +1.2%.
OIL PRICES EASE LOWER
American oil prices are down -US$2 from this morning with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$98/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$102/bbl and also down -US$2.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few reported trades again today. The price has held at $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$22/oz from this morning's open, now at US$4361/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at US$66.50/oz.
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED WITH A HINT OF SOFTNESS
The Kiwi dollar is little-change from this morning, still at 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 80.3 AUc. Against the euro we still at just over 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is remains just over 60.6 and land dipping a bit less than -10 bps from this morning.
BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price is now at US$81,269 and up +1.2% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.
HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.
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