A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; more retail rate rises, Fonterra stars, ANZ ups its payout forecast, fewer cranes in action, Kiwibank raises $¾ bln, swaps leap, bond yields leap, NZX dips, NZD falls, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank raised most fixed rates today. Details here. They were followed by the Cooperative bank. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank also raised some selected long term rates today. And so did BNZ. The Cooperative Bank and ICBC also raised some TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

BIG PROFIT JUMP
Dairy giant Fonterra is paying farmer shareholders $9.69 per kilogram of milk solids and a total dividend for the 2025/26 year of 73 cents after reporting a $2.6 bln after-tax profit. This compares with their 2025 results of a $10.16/kgMS payout, a 57 cent dividend, and $1.1 bln NPATx.

WITH UPSIDE FOR DAIRY FARMERS
Now that this result is released, ANZ has raised its milk payout forecast for the new season to $9.80/kgMS, which is above the recent Fonterra mid-point of $9.50/kgMS.  (All major analyst forecasts are here.)

FEWER CRANES IN USE
The national construction crane count from RLB was just 106 at the end of September (58 in Auckland), up from 102 in June, but down from a peak of 157 in March 2022. In September last year the count was 116.

FEWER LOANS AT LOWER LEVELS
The RBNZ released its August data on residential borrowing by purpose today (C33) and that shows sagging new demand in all categories with new lending down -8.5% overall from July, down -4.9% from August a year ago. In fact, the average top-up loan is now down to levels last seen in 2020 (ignoring the Christmas periods). The average new purchase loan is back below $600,000. However the average loan shifted between banks is up marginally to $655,000 although still well below any month in 2025. 

NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far. But for the past 5 trading sessions it is unchanged. It is up +8.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.3% so far today. Gentrack, Vista Group, Briscoes, and Precinct Properties fell while Hallensteins, Sanford, Tourism Holdings, and Skellerup gained.

HIGHER YIELDS BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUPPLY
The Treasury raised $400 mln in two new bond issues today via a tender where they were offered $1.8 bln in 79 bids for the two maturities available. That was just a touch less than the $1.9 bln offered in 136 bds a week ago. Today's yields were +27 bps higher than the equivalent bond offered last week.

THEIR SHIP COMES IN
Kiwibank's $100 mln "plus oversubscriptions"  5 year bond issue has been received with strong demand of $965 mln. They have chosen to take $750 mln in this one, at a yield of 5.216% pa. This $750 mln is their largest-ever debt raise, beating the previous $650 mln in October 2023, and the $400 mln in December 2025.

WEALTHY NATION
In Australia, June 2026 data released today by the ABS shows household wealth there has reached AU$19.4 tln, driven by superannuation, but now held back by recently falling housing values. That is average per capita wealth of AU$694,500. There are a vast number of Aussie 'super' millionaires now.

GOOD LABOUR MARKET
Meanwhile, the August update of their labour force data shows +39,500 more jobs in the month with 14.827 mln people employed. But their jobless rate rose to 4.6% with 722,900 adults unemployed and a rise of +28,200 in a month. Hours worked and participation both rose and underemployment fell (slightly).

SWAPS JUMP
Wholesale swap rates will likely be much higher today, maybe as much as +15 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +2 bps at 3.19% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has jumped +12 bps to 5.37% and its highest since 2011. The China 10 year bond rate is still at 1.67%. They are on holiday tomorrow. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 3.06% and up +8 bps to a 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.09% and up +14 bps from Wednesday and its highest since November 2023. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was down -3 bps at 4.92% on Wednesday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.12% and up +16 bps from yesterday, its highest in 24 years.

EQUITIES DROP
The NZX50 is now down -0.5% from yesterday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -0.6%. Tokyo is up +1.3% after returning from holiday. The KOSPI is closed today. Hong Kong has opened down -0.3% while Shanghai is down -0.6% at its open. Singapore is down -0.1% in early Thursday trade today. Wall Street ended down -0.8% on the S&P500, down -1.1% on the Nasdaq.

OIL PRICES UP
American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$91/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$102/bbl and up +US$3.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STALLED
There have been no trades reported again today, so far. The price is still at $52.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$49/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4286/oz. Silver is a sharp -US$2.50 lower at US$64/oz.

NZD LOWER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday, now at 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 80.7 AUc. Against the euro we little-changed at just on 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is remains just over 60.4 and down -20 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price is now at US$84,344 and down -2.4% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.1%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».