A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; optimistic PREFU with less new borrowing, more new Auckland houses, but ANZ sees buyers pulling back, many badge awards, swaps stable, NZD lower, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None today, so far. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

PREFU SHOWS HIGHER TAX REVENUE, IMPROVED FISCAL OUTLOOK
Treasury’s pre-election economic and fiscal update points to an improved fiscal outlook driven by higher tax revenue. But risks continue to place the Govt. financial outlook in a delicate position they say.

LESS BORROWING, BUT STILL AN INCREASE
As a consequence, Treasury has trimmed its gross level of debt issuance to $30 bln in 2026/27, down -$4 bln from its prior plan, and reduced its 2027/28, 2028/29 borrowing estimates by -$4 bln as well and the 2029/30 borrowing estimate by -$3 bln. For all that, it still means that the current $211 bln in public sector debt will rise to $241 bln at the end of their new five year forecast period. This good news is all predicated on inflation being 1.9% next year, an estimate they probably have on their own.

AUCKLAND NEW HOUSEBUILDING COMING OUT OF ITS FUNK
Residential construction in Auckland may be on the up at last. Signs Auckland's residential building slump may be over as new housing completions start to rise

BUT ANZ NOT OPTIMISTIC ON HOUSING MARKET OVERALL
ANZ now says house buyers have pulled back in response to higher interest rates and uncertainty. Sales volume slowdowns are now widespread across most regions. As a consequence they now expect House prices will likely "go nowhere fast" over the next year.

NEW PARTY HAS BOTTOM LINES
The Opportunity Party has announced five non-negotiable policy conditions they plan to stand by if it makes it into Parliament in November's general election.

LOCKED OUT & ELIMINATED
The Workers First Union is saying that Woolworths are cutting 130 "customer care" positions in New Zealand and moving those functions to Australia. They say these positions are the same team locked out by Woolworths at Christmas after they refused to agree worse terms and conditions.

"BANK OF THE YEAR"
The Co-operative Bank has been named Bank of the Year 2026 in the Roy Morgan Customer Satisfaction Awards for New Zealand. Kiwibank was named "Major Bank of the Year". FMG was named "Insurer of the Year".

NZX50 LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.8% so far and down -1.2% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +7.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2% so far today. Hallensteins, SkyTV, Napier Port and Vulcan Steel advance while Ryman, a2 Milk, Serko and Channel Infrastructure retreat.

HIGH BUT NOT ACCELERATING
Household spending in Australia in August was little-changed from July and that kept in place its sharp +6.8% year-on-year rise.

A WEST ISLAND RATE HIKE IMMINENT
At 5:30 pm today the RBA will release the results of its latest review of Australian's monetary policy. It is widely expected to raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.6% and taking it above Norway's 4.5% to be almost the highest in the developed world (Iceland is at 8% however.) Of more interest than the rate hike will be their signals about where it is going. Some see at least three more to 5.35% by the middle of 2027. Striking out in a different direct from the money market expectations comes with risks and costs, short term at least - credibility justifications given inflation's trajectory.

STILL RIDING HIGH
Korean business sentiment, which has been high since May, dipped in September when a small rise was anticipated. However that one-month dip doesn't really undo its new-found strength.

SWAP RATES UNCHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today and holding their new higher levels. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +1 bp at 3.24% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 5.41% and its still highest since 2011. The China 10 year bond rate is still at 1.67%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 3.08% and down -2 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.15% and down -1 bp from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +2 bps at 5.13% on Monday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.24% and up another +3 bps from this time yesterday, a new 24 year high.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is now up +0.9% from Monday's close. The ASX200 has opened little-changed ahead of the RBA decision. Tokyo is down -0.9%. The KOSPI is unchanged at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -0.3% while Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is down -0.1% in early Tuesday trade today. Wall Street ended its Monday trade down -0.8% with the Nasdaq down -0.9%.

OIL PRICES HOLD HIGH
American oil prices have dipped -50 USc from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$93.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$106.50/bbl and little-changed. The US-Iran uncertainty is unresolved, persisting and with no resolutions on the immediate horizon.

CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
There have been few significant late trades today so far. The price is little-changed at $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPPING
In early Asian trade, gold is down another -US$84/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4130. Silver is down another -US$2 at just under US$60.50/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is now just over 56.6 USc and up a bit less than +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are holding at 80.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is remains just over 60.3 and little-changed.

BITCOIN SOFTISH AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$83,024 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 1.0%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».