A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; NBS launches good TD rate, consumer sentiment holds lowish, car sales strong, Tatua holds its high payout, bond market ponders, swaps dip, NZX falls, NZD eases, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
NBS raised its 1 year TD rate to 4.30% an unusually high level for a community-based non-bank deposit taker and well above any bank. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A LOWISH HOLD
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was little changed in September, down just 0.4 points to 97.6 (still under par but 17 points above its April low). The net proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item lifted 5 points but remains subdued at -7%. Inflation expectations (2-years ahead) fell 0.2ppts to 4.5%, their lowest level since March 2025. House price expectations eased from 2.5% to 2.4%, their lowest level since July 2024. Oil prices lifted sharply in September, peaking around the middle of the month and confidence deteriorated and inflation expectations lifted in the later survey response to those higher oil prices.

CAR SALES STRONG
More than 20,000 new and used passenger cars were registered in September, a pace that picked up from July and August. Hybrid sales were strong, and EV sales rose fast although they start some ways back.

HEARTLAND BANK PICKS CEO DESIGNATE FOR TSB HEARTLAND BANK
Heartland Group Holdings has confirmed its establishment panel has endorsed Heartland Bank NZ CEO Leanne Lazarus as chief executive designate of TSB Heartland Bank. Lazarus has been Heartland Bank NZ CEO since August 2022. The endorsement depends on Heartland completing its TSB Bank takeover from the Toi Foundation, which Heartland shareholders approved on Thursday. The establishment panel, which is comprised of Heartland and TSB directors, will form the TSB Heartland Bank Board if the proposed deal gets completed.

ANZ GROUP DUMPING AUDITOR KPMG AFTER 57 YEARS
The ANZ Group is dumping KPMG, its auditor since 1969, but it's going to be a slow goodbye. The bank is undertaking a competitive tender process to find its new auditor, aiming to conclude this by the end of April next year, with the new auditor expected to be in place for the start of its 2029 financial year. ANZ says a tenure of KPMG's length is no longer considered appropriate and has been under consideration by its board for some time. Shareholders will get to vote on the new auditor's appointment at the 2028 AGM. KPMG can't participate in the tender process, ANZ says, because of of the length of its tenure with the bank. KPMG is also ANZ NZ's auditor, but a spokesperson for the NZ subsidiary says no decision has been made by ANZ NZ.

TATUA HOLDS HIGH
The Tatua Co-operative Dairy Company said its earnings in the year to July 2026 were $13.93/kgMS. Of this, $1.51 will be retained, resulting in a cash payout to shareholders of $12.42/kgMS. That is up +1% from $12.30/kgMS in the 2025 year to be a record high for them. (For reference, Fonterra's payout was $9.69/kgMS.) A full table of dairy company payouts is here.

NZX50 FINISHES WEAKER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.0% so far and down -1.0% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +6.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is only up +1.7% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.1% so far today.

ANOTHER KAURI BOND
There has been another large Kauri bond issue. Nordic Investment Bank (NIB), rated Aaa/AAA, has priced a new NZ$800 mln 5-year fixed rate Kauri bond due 16 October 2031 with a coupon of 4.65%. The bond is priced at 24bps over Mid-Swaps with a reoffer price of 99.907317% and yield of 4.671%, equating to 16.35bps over the NZGB May-2031.

FED SPEAKERS SIGNAL A HOLD
In the US, and after some other Fed members seemed more relaxed about inflation's threat, the influential New York Fed boss John Williams today at first seemed to lean the other way. "It is imperative that we return inflation to our 2 percent target on a sustained basis. To do so, we must make certain that adverse inflationary disturbances do not become entrenched, and that any second-round effects on inflation remain muted." The next meeting is just before the US mid-term elections. But then he ended his speech saying "With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information." This was enough of a signal to bond markets to assume a rate hike is not coming at the end of this month.

JAPANESE WARNING SIGN
It is not something we normally follow, but the Japanese reported today that inflation in Tokyo jumped sharply in August to 2.7%, far higher than the 1.9% in August. Excluding food and fuel it was 3.0% so on that basis inflation is embedding fast there. The Bank of Japan will have noticed as will financial markets.

ELECTION COUNTDOWN
There are only 36 days until November 7. A feature of polling in this election cycle is how many people say they haven't made up their mind yet

SWAP RATES EASE SLIGHTLY
Wholesale swap rates will likely slightly softer today on more gyrating international trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was lower by -1 bp at 3.22% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 5.37%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.68% and unchanged. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 3.08% and down -2 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.07% and down -6 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +6 bps at 5.10% on Thursday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.26% and down -5 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now down another -1.0% from Thursday's close. The ASX200 has opened up +0.4%. Tokyo is down -1.1%. The KOSPI is unchanged at its open today. Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed for their public holidays. Singapore is down -0.3 in early Friday trade today. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade up +0.2% with the Nasdaq little-changed.

OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices have firmed +US$3 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$93/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$102.50/bbl and up +US$4.50 on renewed Middle East uncertainties.

CARBON PRICE STABLE
There were more significant late trades yesterday but none today so far. However the price remains little-changed at $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold has eased a minor -US$8/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4153/oz. Silver is little-changed at just on US$60.50/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is now just over 55.9 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 80.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is is now just over 59.8 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$84,898 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.2% again.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».