A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes, Barfoots reveals soft trading, S&P like Auckland Council, new lending falls, commodity prices turn up, we buy cars enthusiastically, swaps stable, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

GROWING CHOICE DOESN'T TEMPT BUYERS
Auckland's dominant realtor recorded a jump in new listings but sluggish sales numbers. Barfoot & Thompson's September results saw them with -26% fewer sales than in the same month in 2025, slight higher median prices and slightly lower average prices.

"DOING BETTER"
S&P Global ratings has raised the outlook for Auckland Council from 'Stable' to 'Positive' for its AA overall credit rating. They say this council's financial position will meaningfully strengthen over the next few years."The fiscal deconsolidation of the council's water utility, Watercare, along with rising property rates, investment revenue, user fees and charges, and tight expense control will help narrow the council's deficits after capital accounts to less than 10% of total revenue from fiscal 2027 (ending June 30, 2027), from 19% of total revenue in fiscal 2025." They note "a strong, diversified economy, proven track record of prudent financial management, and very predictable institutional framework support Auckland's creditworthiness." and "Auckland's finances will improve and help lower its debt burden; liquidity remains exceptional."

NOT DOING BETTER
New lending fell sharply overall in August from July, according to RBNZ data out today, down almost -$1 bln (actual -$970 mln) on top of July's -$2.6 bln fall from June. We haven't seen two consecutive falls (apart from some minor ones over the holiday break) of this magnitude since mid 2023. Driving these retreats were both new residential lending, and non-property business lending. Confidence to take on new debt seems low.

SEPTEMBER RECOVERS AUGUST FALLS
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose +0.6% in September from August to be +1.0% higher than a year ago. Commodity prices rose across most categories, with only beef and milk fat prices falling. The NZD Commodity Price Index rose by 2.8% from August, to be up +2.5% from September 2025. The NZD weakened considerably throughout September, driven in part by higher interest rates in the US.

WE BUY NEW MORE ENTHUSIASTICALLY
There were 13,243 new cars sold in September, the best sales month since June 2023. The September level is +28% higher than the same 2025 month, which itself was +20% higher than in September 2024. The growth impetus is lower for used imports, which were up +13% to 8001 in September 2026 from 2025, up less (+10%) in 2026 from September 2024.

NZX50 SOFTER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far and down -1.3% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +4.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is only up +1.2% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% so far today. Serko, Oceania, Argosy and Infratil gain while Hallensteins, Scales, Fletcher Building and Summerset retreat.

SHORTAGES DRIVE PROFITS
We have recorded today's changes in the crude oil price below. But some readers have noted the international chatter about the 'crack spread'. This is the "differential between the price of crude oil and petroleum products extracted from it. The spread approximates the profit margin that refiners can expect to make by "cracking" the long-chain hydrocarbons of crude oil into useful shorter-chain petroleum products." In USD it has been at near record highs since July. We have calculated the same for New Zealand, the difference between the Dubai crude price and the New Zealand discounted unleaded 91 price after excluding all taxes (so no excise, no GST, no regional taxes). That tracking is here.

A DIFFERENT SURVEY, & HIGHER
In Australia, the independent Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased for a third consecutive month in September, after falling in May and June. The increase was primarily attributed to transport price rises, with annual headline inflation of 4.8%, unchanged from August. (The ABS said the August CPI was 4.0%.) The monthly cost of living also increased across a range of household types (age pensioners, other government transfer recipients, employees, pensioners and beneficiaries and self-funded retirees).

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was firmer by +1 bp at 3.23% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 5.30%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.68% and unchanged. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 3.09% and also little-changed. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.08% and up +1 bp from this time Friday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was down -1 bp at 5.09% on Friday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.25% and down -3 bps from this morning's open.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has eased another -0.1% from Friday's close. The ASX200 has opened up +0.4%. Tokyo is up +2.6%. The KOSPI is on holiday today but will be back tomorrow. Hong Kong is back and down -0.3% in Monday trade while Shanghai is closed for their public holidays. Singapore is up +0.2% in early Monday trade today. Wall Street futures indicated they will open tomorrow with the S&P500 looking at a +0.9% gain.

OIL PRICES SOFTISH
American oil prices have eased -US$1 from this morning with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$90/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$101.50/bbl and down -50 USc despite the renewed Middle East uncertainties.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been many trades today but some have been on the small side. However the price remains little-changed at $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold has risen +US$20/oz from this morning, now at US$4160/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just on US$61.50/oz.

NZD SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is now just under 56.1 USc and down -10 bps from where we opened this morning. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 80.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is is now just under 59.9 and down -10 bps.

BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price is now at US$86.590 and up +1.4% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.3% again.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».