A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; rising oil prices dominate, we check the fiscal policy progress, Aussie business sentiment retreats even as conditions stable, swaps softish, NZD lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to note today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER TRANSACTIONS
Bank customer transactions down were down a twelfth (-8.4%) to 2.2 bln in the first six months of 2026, according to the NZ Banking Association. That is like missing one month in a year. They also say first-home buyers secured nearly 25% of new home loans in the first half of the year, with average borrowing for FHBs topping $500,000.

HOW THE BIG NUMBERS HAVE MOVED
As its election year, time to assess fiscal progress from January 2024 (or Q1-24) to now. (Feel free to suggest other changes in the comment section below). 

• CPI inflation, was 4.1%, now 4.1%
• Jobless rate, was 4.4%, now 5.6%
• OCR, was 5.5%, now 2.75% (change is -2.75%)
• 2 yr mortgage rate, was 6.95%, now 5.35% (change is -1.60%)
• 1 yr TD rate was 6.15%, now 4.00% (change is -2.15%)
• Govt spending of GDP, was 38.9%, now 38.8%
• NZD in USD, was 63.2 USc, now 55.8 USc
• annual median house price change, was +1.9%, now -1.3%
• GDP growth, was +1.6%, now +2.6%

COSTLY RECORD
Petrol is now at a new record high today. And the chances of it easing from here are not great.

NZX50 SOFT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% today. From a week ago it is up +0.4%; from six months ago it is up +5.7%. From a year ago it is only up +3.0% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.2% so far today. There are gains for Kathmandu Brands, F&P Healthcare, Argosy and Hallensteins. Meanwhile Vulcan Steel, Napier Port, Freightways and Vector retreat

HIGH, JUST LESS HIGH
Japan's producer price index growth slowed slightly in September. They are up +6.8% year-on-year, slowing from August’s pace and the market expectation of +7.6%.

SINKING FEELINGS
In Australia, the widely watched NAB business confidence survey fell in October although business conditions were little-changed from the prior month. The drop in confidence si still well below long run averages.

WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION
The latest RBA minutes release confirms they are very focused on upward inflation pressures. They see signs of tech-driven price pressures from the AI boom emerging in Australia.  On top of that the Middle East clashes have intensified, and oil prices exceed their forecasts. The increase in global neutral rate may weigh on the Australian dollar if domestic rates stay flat, they say. The AUD dipped when these minutes were released.

SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates will likely be marginally lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was unchanged at 3.22% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 5.30%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.66% and down -1 bp. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.99% and also down -1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.02% and down -5 bp from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was down -4 bps at 5.02% on Monday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.19% and down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 has softened slightly further, now down -0.6%. The ASX200 has opened down -0.1%. Tokyo is down a sharp -2.7%. The KOSPI is down an even sharper -6.2% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.8% in Tuesday trade while Shanghai down -1.1%. Singapore is up +0.4% in early Tuesday trade. Wall Street closed slightly, down -0.1% on the S&P500, down -0.4% on the Nasdaq.

OIL RISES
American oil prices have risen +US$2.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$92.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$105/bbl and up +US$2. The spreading war between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia just hot hotter.

CARBON PRICE SOFT
There have very few trades and very small ones and the price has slipped -$1.50 to $50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen -US$46/oz from this morning, now at US$4166/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at US$60/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps at just under 55.9 USc from where we were yesterday. Against the Aussie we are just a tad firmer at 80.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is is now just on 59.7 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$82,392 and down -1.5 from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».