A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes but most other data lower, bracing for a hawksih hike, wool prices steady, new scam risks, oil rises, swaps down, equities drop, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.  All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A HAWKISH HIKE COMING?
ANZ economists have bolstered their forecast for the OCR by saying we will likely get a +25 bps hike next week (October 28) and on December 9. That will take the OCR from its current 2.75% to 3.25% to end the year. Recall, it started 2026 at 2.25% with +25 bps hike in mid-July and early September. If they are correct, that means we will end 2026 at the level that last applied in August 2025 (on the way down, in October 2022 on the way up, and prior to that pandemic response in the year from July 2014. Prior to mid 2009 it was always higher than 3.25%. For reference, current financial market pricing is for the OCR to end up at 4.0% at the end of 2027.

IKEA WORKERS TO STRIKE
IKEA workers have scheduled a strike at their Auckland store from 12:00pm - 4:00pm on Saturday 24 October as part of their campaign for a pay increase at least at the inflation level and premium pay for weekend work in a way that "value[s] New Zealand workers in the same way they value Aussie workers". Update: Farmers staff are also striking at the same time, same day at at least 14 location.

WOOL PRICES STEADY
The national wool market remained steady at the Thursday sale, with strong wool prices largely unchanged to slightly in sellers' favour despite the limited offering. Buyer demand remained restrained at current price levels, although reduced wool availability, driven by the declining national wool clip, continued to provide support. Crossbred fleece prices were largely unchanged, while second shear types recorded modest gains and oddments held steady. The National Strong Wool Indicator lifted 3 cents on the sale, with 82 percent of the offering sold.

NZX50 SOFTISH
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% today. From a week ago it is also down -0.2%. But from six months ago it is up +6.5%. From a year ago it is up +2.6% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.1% so far today. There have been 35 gainers led by Synlait Milk, Chorus, Mainfreight and Kiwi Property. There have been 49 decliners led by Fletchers, Summerset, AirNZ, and EBOS.

AUSSIE BANKS GET COVERED BOND BOOST
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers says banks can increase the proportion of their total Aussie assets used as security for covered bonds to 12% from 8%. That's above the 10% the RBNZ allows New Zealand banks to use. It's a move that will no doubt be welcome by the parents of NZ's big four banks. A covered bond is a debt instrument issued by a bank that is secured by a specific pool of assets known as a cover pool, which in the case of NZ banks consist of residential mortgages. 

NEW SCAM VECTORS
ASB is urging people to be on the lookout for impersonation scams, as it sees a rise in reported cases. Scammers are pretending to be from banks and other trusted brands, with some claiming to be from ASB's fraud team. The scammers are using a range of tactics including using technology to make it appear they’re from a trusted organisation when this is not the case, for example calling from a number that looks the same as, or very similar to the real number. Scammers are also reaching out to people through apps including WhatsApp, Google Meet and iCloud. They’ll often use a company logo as their profile photo in order to appear legitimate. (You will get no help from BigTech - they profit from allowing scams on their platforms as US court cases are showing.) The drive to "sell" the benefits of instant money transfers that a number or fintechs are promoting just enables fraud to be harder to wind back. Scammers love 'urgency', hate delay.

LOWER THAN EXPECTED
Japanese inflation was unchanged in September from August, to be 2.1% higher than year ago levels. That is up from 1.9% in August but lower than the expected 2.3% rate. This will bolster the expectation that the  Bank of Japan will make no change to its 1.25% level at its review next week (October 30).

IN A PURPLE PATCH
According to the S&P Global PMI for Japan, October delivered a solid expansion even if it was marginally less than in September. Order backlogs rose but the pace of new orders incoming slowed. Employment growth was minimal. Japanese businesses are still optimistic about the year ahead.

IN A COST VISE
The same is not true for Australia where the S&P Global factory PMI stayed in a minor contraction, and their services PMI fell from a September expansion to an October contraction. Both the rates of input cost and output price inflation rose in October amid a broad-based intensification of price pressures.

SWAP RATES LOWER
Wholesale swap rates will likely be lower today, maybe as much as -5 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was unchanged at 3.32% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -10 bps at 5.17%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.63% and little-changed. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.76% and down -13 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.93% and down -6 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was also down -5 bps at 4.98% on Thursday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.96% and down -14 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES ALL LOWER
The NZX50 has eased -0.1% so far today. And the ASX200 has opened down -0.5%. Tokyo is down -1.6%. The KOSPI is down -2.5% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.5% in early Friday trade while Shanghai down -1.9%. Singapore is down -0.7% in early Friday trade. Wall Street ended its Thursday session with the S&P500 down -1.2% while the Nasdaq was down -2.6%.

OIL RISES
American oil prices have risen +US$2 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$100.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$114/bbl  and up +US$3.50.

CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
There have been no more trades reported and so the price is unchanged at $50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPS
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen -US$94/oz from yesterday, now at US$4015/oz. Silver is down -US$2.50 at just over US$54/oz.

NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at just under 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just under 81.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.6 and -10 bps lower.

BITCOIN FALLS
The bitcoin price is now at US$81,367 and down -2.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at just over +/- 1.4%.

LABOUR DAY
It is a public holiday on Monday and we will be on 'weekend mode'. Yes we will have a Breakfast Briefing and other articles, but this afternoon review will take a break.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».