A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; RBNZ stuns by holding OCR unchanged, post-decision comments confuse, filled jobs rise modestly, Aussie inflation rises, swaps drop, NZD falls, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has cut both its 6 month and 1 year fixed rates as well as its FirstHome Combo rate. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has shifted some TD rates up and down. It has ended its 4.50% 1 year rate. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

NO PRE-ELECTION HIKE, IN SPLIT DECISION
Surprising many including the money market participants, the RBNZ has held the OCR at 2.75% on another split 4-3 vote. with the four internal RBNZ staff members splitting (Conway & Silk wanted to hike, Breman & Williams voted to hold.)  Immediately after, the NZD crashed -70 bps, the NZGB 10yr yield fell -10 bps. Oddly, in her press conference Governor Breman signaled that multiple OCR hikes are likely in the next few meetings due to elevated inflation risks. The RBNZ chief economist didn't seem happy, not saying anything in the press conference.

FHBs GET INTO THEIR OWN HOME FOR LESS
First home buyers are paying less for their homes but more than half taking on low equity loans. The average price first home buyers are paying for a home dropped to its lowest level in 19 months in September.

MORE [PUBLIC] JOBS
Stats NZ reported that in September, there were 2.35 mln actual filled jobs, up +22,800 jobs (+1.0%) compared with the same month in 2025. Of that rise, +6000 of these new jobs were in "public administration and safety", +5900 were in health care and social assistance, +2500 were in construction, and +2400 in "education & training". So most of the increase are in roles funded by taxpayers, the same areas there is political pressure to reverse so-called "public service cuts". (The rest of the jobs market is shrinking, the ones the lobby groups want to tax to fund their sector rises.) The extra jobs are coming for older workers; +9600 for the 30-39 age group, +7800 in the 40-44 cohort, +5800 in the 45-49 cohort, +4500 in the 55-59 cohort and +5800 in the over 65's group. But jobs for the under 30s are declining in an unfortunately sharp way.

PREMIUMS UP, PROFITS DOWN
Suncorp controlled AA Insurance says their premium revenue reached $1 bln, while net profit dropped -15% to $144 mln. Suncorp, through Vero, owns 66% of AA Insurance while the AA owns the balance.

CO-OP BANK FINED $1.425M FOR AML/CFT BREACHES
The High Court has confirmed a $1.425m penalty for The Co-Operative Bank for breaches of the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act. This follows proceedings brought by the RBNZ and taken over by the Department of Internal Affairs, which is now NZ's sole AML/CFT supervisor. The Court noted Co-op Bank cooperated with the investigation, admitted the breaches and has addressed the deficiencies identified. It wasn't alleged that Co-op Bank was itself involved in money laundering or the financing of terrorism.

NZX50 FIRM
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.3% today after being lower before the OCR hold. From a week ago it is now up +0.7%. From six months ago it is up +7.5%. From a year ago it is up +2.4% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.8% so far today.  The 46 gainers are being led by Synlait, Fletcher, Hallensteins and Infratil. The 33 decliners are led by The Warehouse, Heartland, NZX and Scales.

INFLATION UP, BUT WAIT-&-SEE MAY BE THE RESPONSE
CPI inflation came in at 4.3% in Australia in September, up from 4.0% in August, and higher than the 4.2% markets were expecting. At least it isn't as high as the 4.6% in March, but it is their second highest monthly level. The RBA next reviews their 4.6% cash rate target next week on November 3 and financial markets currently price in a 65% chance of another +25 bps rise, lower than you might have expected but on the basis the they might want to wait to see if their earlier hikes have an effect. The AUD rose on the news, their benchmark bond yields rose, and the ASX200 dipped by giving up some earlier gains.

A EXISTENTIAL PENALTY FOR BEING CROOKED
And staying in Australia, Star casino has been handed a AU$260 mln fine for AML breaches, probably far more than it can afford to pay. It is the culmination of proceedings started in November 2022.

YOU PROBABLY CAN'T AVOID IT
Read up on the Anthropic IPO because the chances are your KiwiSaver fund manager is either going to put into them (whether you want this or not) or this investing event will raise the risks for the rest of us. So best to 'be informed'.

SWAP RATES STUMBLE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be lower today after the OCR surprise, maybe as much as -10 bps at the short end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +4 bps at 3.35% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 5.22%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.62% and down -1 bp. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.82%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.94% and down-5 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +3 bps at 4.97% yesterday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.02% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The NZX50 has risen +0.4% so far today, largely after the OCR decision. The ASX200 has opened up +0.2%. Tokyo is up +1.5% from yesterday. The KOSPI is flying again, up +6.2% at its open. Hong Kong is little-changed in early Wednesday trade while Shanghai up +0.5%. Singapore is unchanged in early Wednesday trade. Wall Street ended up +0.6% in its Tuesday trade while the Nasdaq was up +1.2%

OIL FIRM
American oil prices have basically held from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$101/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$116/bbl and up +US$1.50.

CARBON PRICE RECOVERS SOME
There has been higher trading levels reported today and the price is up +$2 from yesterday at $49.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold has risen +US$38 from yesterday, now at US$4048/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just on US$54/oz.

NZD TAKES A DRUBBING
The Kiwi dollar is down -80 bps from yesterday at just under 56.2 USc mostly after the OCR decision. Against the Aussie we down -130 bps at just on 79.8 AUc, compounded by the Aussie CPI result. Against the euro we are down -50 bps at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 59.9 and -90 bps lower.

BITCOIN MARGINALLY FIRMER
The bitcoin price is now at US$80,793 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at just under +/- 1.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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