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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no pre-election rate changes, retail spending stirs, wool prices sag, livestock prices hold, swap rates hold, NZX dips, nervous currency traders, & more. Make sure you vote

Economy / news
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no pre-election rate changes, retail spending stirs, wool prices sag, livestock prices hold, swap rates hold, NZX dips, nervous currency traders, & more. Make sure you vote

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes announced today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

YES, FUEL IS DRIVING SOME OF THE RISE IN SPENDING, BUT THERE IS A BROADER GAIN AS WELL (OR NOT)
ANZ's tracking of what is being spent by their clients using electronic cards shows that in October, spending was up +0.7% from the month before, and up +5.9% from a year ago. That is much higher than inflation and is a trend that is raising retailer's spirits. But some of that was for fuel (up +25.5% from a year ago). Still most durables categories were higher, including those loosely related to housing (hardware, pools and spas, PCs and appliances). In contrast Westpac's similar review of their card transactions found the same rise in fuel spending but not for most other categories.

WOOL PRICES SAG, ESPECIALLY FOR FINE WOOLS
PGG Wrightson is reporting that crossbred wool prices largely held firm, despite increasing resistance from carpet mills seeking to contain prices. But business confidence has deteriorated rapidly, particularly in the all-important Chinese fine-wool sector, as major top-makers encounter increasingly difficult international trading conditions.

LIVESTOCK PRICES HOLD BUT WATCH EASING OUTLOOK
Lamb markets remain steady, underpinned by tight global supply. In contrast, mutton prices are facing downward pressure due to softer Chinese demand amid warmer-than-expected weather. US grinding beef prices are stable.

NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.6% today. From a week ago it is now up +1.7%. From six months ago it is up +6.8%. From a year ago it is up +3.4% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.4% so far today. There have been 27 gainers led mostly by minnows although that includes NZME, Tourism Holdings and Hallensteins. There are 52 decliners led by Synlait, Gentrack, SkyCity casino, and Vulcan Steel.

SUDDEN KIWIBANK RETIREMENT & A REAPPOINTMENT
Kate Jorgensen has retired as an Independent Director of Kiwibank, effective today. Kevin Malloy, who as been a director at Kiwibank since 2016, has been reappointed.

REGULATORS GET ACTIVE
After Westpac dobbed itself in, the RBNZ is alleging they breached Depositor Compensation Scheme disclosure requirements, and the RBNZ says a court will determine if the allegation is correct. But that is chickenfeed comparted to APRA who have hit Macquarie Bank with a AU$100 mln "governance overlay" for miscalculating the amount of capital it needed to support risks within its non-bank divisions. And that is on top of a prior AU$500 mln capital overlay for an earlier separate breach.

PAYMARK REPORTS HALF-YEAR PROFIT

Paymark, which was acquired by Australia's Cuscal Payments in May, says it made net profit after tax of $6.109m in the six months to June 30. Operating revenue was $39.466m and operating expenses were $24.826m. Paymark paid ordinary dividends of $8m. No comparable figures for the same period of last year were given.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates probably stopped falling today, and maybe rose slightly. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was down -3 bps at 3.11% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp again at 5.01%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at just under 1.58% and down -2 bps. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -8 bps at 2.67%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.78% and up +2 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was down another -7 bps at 4.74% on Thursday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.85% and unchanged from yesterday at this time.

EQUITIES FALL, HARD IN SOME PLACES
The NZX50 has eased -0.6% so far today and the 'best' of the markets we follow. The ASX200 has opened down -1.1%. Tokyo is down -6.1%. The KOSPI is down -6.3% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.6% in early Thursday trade while Shanghai is down -1.3%. Singapore is down -2.1% in early Friday trade. Wall Street was down -4.4% in Thursday trade on the S&P500 while the Nasdaq was down -5.5%.

THE LOCAL TECH ROUT
While we are talking about the tech share price rout, it is probably worth noting a few 'local' ones. RocketLab is down -12% today to be down -37% over the past month.  Xero is down -1.4% today to be up +25.4% over the past month. Atlassian is down -16% today, down -16% over the past month.

OIL TURNS UP SHARPLY
American oil prices have risen +$3.50 with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$91/bbl\, while the international Brent price is also higher, by +US$5.50 just over US$99.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS
There have been a number of trades reported today and the price is up +50c at $49/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold has risen +US$40 from yesterday, now at US$4170/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at just over US$52/oz.

NZD DROPS HARD, PRE-ELECTION JITTERS
The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from this time yesterday at just on 55.9 USc. Against the Aussie we up +20 bps at just under 80.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 59.7 and down -40 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,082 and down -5.6% from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been high again at just over +/- 3.6%.

VOTE !

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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4 Comments

"spending was up +0.7% from the month before, and up +5.9% from a year ago. That is much higher than inflation" 

Is it really? How high is real price inflation ? (not the CPI)

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Stat's NZ are fakers? Getting into conspiracy theory there...

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ANZ's tracking of what is being spent by their clients using electronic cards shows that in October, spending was up +0.7% from the month before, and up +5.9% from a year ago. That is much higher than inflation and is a trend that is raising retailer's spirits. But some of that was for fuel (up +25.5% from a year ago). Still most durables categories were higher, including those loosely related to housing (hardware, pools and spas, PCs and appliances). In contrast Westpac's similar review of their card transactions found the same rise in fuel spending but not for most other categories.

How does this make any sense? Does ANZ have all the spenders?

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While we are talking about the tech share price rout, it is probably worth noting a few 'local' ones. RocketLab is down -12% today to be down -37% over the past month.  Xero is down -1.4% today to be up +25.4% over the past month. Atlassian is down -16% today, down -16% over the past month.

Coincidentally, RKLB, XRO, and Atlassian all down approx 70% from their all-time highs. Reality is that many SaaS companies have been falling for more than 12 months. 

Canva is not a listed company but announced substantial restructuring a few days ago. About 22% of its workforce will go. Incidentally, Icehouse Ventures seems to have backed some vulnerable software investments, particularly Tracksuit, Ideally, Shuttlerock. 

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