A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; QV downbeat on property values, ANZ profits fall, FMA eyes stablecoin rules, market prices confirmed by election, swaps stable, NZX down, NZD down, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes announced today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Mutual Credit Finance raised most rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

QV SEES CREEPING DECLINES
QV is reporting that housing values continued declining in most parts of NZ during October. North Island housing values dropped in October with declines also creeping in to values in Nelson, Queenstown and Invercargill.

MARGINS LOWER DUE TO 'COMPETITIVE PRESSURE'
ANZ NZ annual profit for the year to September dropped -7% with net interest margin lower due to 'competitive pressure in the lending market'. Their NIM fell seven basis points to the still high 2.52%. Their cost-to-income ratio jumped 310 basis points to 42.0% from 38.9%.

NZD STABLECOINS
The FMA is opening consultation on a 'class designation' for issuers of NZD stable coins. "We are considering a class designation for New Zealand dollar-referenced and -backed stablecoins under section 562(1)(c) of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (FMC Act). The designation would declare that qualifying New Zealand dollar-referenced and -backed stablecoins with certain features are not financial products for the purposes of the FMC Act.  If made, the designation would apply to stablecoins that are fully backed by funds held on bare trust at a New Zealand-registered bank, are redeemable at face value, and pay no return to holders. Stablecoin issuers relying on the designation would be subject to ongoing requirements, including that they publicly report on their reserves."

IT WAS PRICED IN, SO LITTLE POST-VOTE REACTION
Westpac's savvy analyst Imre Speizer notes ... "there has been muted response in NZD markets to the weekend's tight NZ election result. This is unsurprising given polls had correctly indicated a very close race, so that an uncertainty discount had been baked into the NZD which can be only partially unwound today. It's a similar story for NZ swap rates and NZGB yields."

NZX50 DOWN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.6% today. From a week ago it is now up +1.6%. From six months ago it is up +5.3%. From a year ago it is up +2.2% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a sharp -2.0% so far today. There have been 42 gainers led by Synlait, Sanford (the bottom trawler), Tourism Holdings and Kathmandu. There are 41 decliners led by Gentrack, Mainfreight, Precinct and F&P Healthcare. 

THE NET RESULT MASKS BIG CHANGES
In China, October CPI inflation was reported at 0.7% as the annual rate, lower than for September (0.9%)  and lower than expected (0.8%). The sharply falling cost of vegetables and pork kept a lid on most other costs, including a +20.2% jump in fuel prices. Also, beef prices rose a startling +8.7% from a year ago, and lamb prices by +5.8%. Dairy products fell -1.2% however on the same year-on-year basis.

NO MASKING OF PRODUCER PRICES
But going the other way, China's PPI inflation jumped more than the expected 5.3%, coming in at to 5.7% for October and its fastest growth since June 2022 and well above the September 5.0% level. It is an acceleration that will be very unwelcome.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was unchanged at 3.11% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 5.03% from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is now at just under 1.58% and down -2 bps from this morning. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +5 bps at 2.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.79% and unchanged from this morning. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +2 bps at 4.76% on Friday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.88% and up +2 bps from today's opening rate.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has eased -0.5% so far today. The ASX200 has opened down -0.2%. Tokyo is up +3.1% in a notable recovery. The KOSPI is up +1.3% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.7% in early Monday trade while Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore is down -2.2% in early Monday trade. Wall Street is signaling a positive opening with the S&P500 futures up +0.8% and the Nasdaq futures are up +0.9%.

OIL DIPS
American oil prices have dipped -50 USc from this morning with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$90.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$1 just over US$97.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE ON HOLD
There have been no trades reported today so far and the price is unchanged at $49/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen -US$46 from this morning, now at US$4124/oz. However, silver is up +US$1.50 at just over US$53.50/oz.

NZD RECOVERS SOME
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this morning at just on 55.7 USc. Against the Aussie we up +20 bps at just under 80.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 59.6 and up +20 bps from this morning.

BITCOIN DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$75,080US$76,082 and down -1.1% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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