A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, rental market active but rents flat, October retail struggled, truckometer tame, ASB to raise new bond funding, swaps stable, NZD rises, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes announced today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HIGHER DEMAND NOT RAISING PRICES
The number of residential properties being newly rented increased significantly in the September quarter to over 42,000 and up +12% from the same period a year ago. But rents have remained remarkably stable over the past year; in fact they have been stable for almost three years. Given CPI inflation, that means a fall in real rents. (This bond data contrasts with the spruiky stories being peddled by the listing portals.)

ANOTHER TOUGH DIP
Payments processor Paymark says consumer spending in October continued the mixed and overall tough environment for retailers seen in recent months. Auckland transactions dipped -0.6%, Wellington was down -0.4%, and Canterbury was down -2.4%, all from a year ago. Nationally, transaction values slipped -1.0% nominal.

AND THE SOFTNESS IS SPREAD
Soft retailing is being reflected in consumer behaviour and felt in the supply chains. The ANZ truckometer monitoring shows the Light Traffic Index (cars & vans) rose just +0.2% in October from September but is down -1.7% compared to a year ago. The Heavy Traffic Index (trucks etc.) fell -0.4% in the month from the prior month, but is up +0.5% from a year ago.

CONWAY SPEAKS
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway, whose inflation concerns were out-voted by both his boss (Breman) and his subordinate (Williams) at the RBNZ's October 28 OCR review, was out speaking at a Sydney conference today. He was reported as saying inflation expectations "worry me" and that "the recovery is sufficiently resilient to absorb a further 25 basis point increase in the OCR". On that basis, he said, there wasn't a compelling case to surprise financial markets with a no-change decision.

NZX50 DIP BUYERS EMEGE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +1.0% today. From a week ago it is now up +2.9%. From six months ago it is up +6.8%. From a year ago it is up +3.6% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has recovered partly, up +0.8% so far today. There are 49 gainers today, led by Gentrack, Fletcher, a2 Milk and Infratil. There are 32 decliners led by Oceania, AirNZ, Vista and Kiwi Property Group.

ANOTHER BIG BANK BOND COMING
ASB has announced that it is making an offer of up to $100 mln for five year fixed rate bonds with the ability to accept unlimited oversubscriptions. Usually these offers are heavily over-subscribed. There will be no public pool, so applications are only available via financial advisers.

AUSSIES HUNKER DOWN
In Australia, consumer sentiment is sinking again in November, and has now breached a new four year low. In fact, it was only lower in April 2020. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey shows over 70% consumers expect further rises in mortgage rates over the next year. There was a big downgrade in consumer house price expectations. And job loss concerns are rising gradually although most are still not overly alarmed. This survey reveals Christmas spending plans will be softer as the mortgage belt is hunkering down.

NO BETTER ON THE BUSINESS FRONT
Australian business confidence and conditions both fell again in October, and a sharp drop in forward orders suggests tougher trading ahead, according to the latest NAB Monthly Business Survey. Business confidence edged down in the month, while business conditions fell also. Forward orders fell sharply in October with the decline broad-based but led by construction and manufacturing 

JAPANESE HOUSEHOLDS CLOSE THIER WALLETS
And it isn't only in Australia that consumers are feeling under pressure. The latest Japanese survey of household spending reveals a sharp retreat in September, in fact to the largest shrinkage since the pandemic period.

SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed-to-soft today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +1 bps at 3.12% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.99% from this this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is now at just under 1.58% and unchanged. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -2 bps at 2.67%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74% and down -5 bps from yesterday at this time. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was unchanged at 4.76% on Monday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.88% and unchanged from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES RISE
The NZX50 has risen +0.9% so far today. The ASX200 has opened up +1.2%. Tokyo is up +2.8% in a notable extended recovery. The KOSPI is up +4.2% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.4% in early Tuesday trade while Shanghai is up +0.3%. Singapore is up +1.6% in early Tuesday trade. Wall Street was much stronger in Monday trade with the S&P50 up +2.3% and the Nasdaq up +2.7%.

OIL PRICE DROPS SHARPLY
American oil prices have dropped -US$4.50 from yesterday at this time with the WTI benchmark now at just on US$86/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$5.50 just under US$92/bbl.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been only small trades reported today so far, and the price is down -$1 at $48/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold has firmed a slight +US$10 from this time yesterday, now at US$4134/oz. However, silver is unchanged at just on US$53.50/oz.

NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up another +60 bps from yesterday at just under 56.4 USc. Against the Aussie we up +50 bps at just under 81.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 60.2 and up +60 bps from this morning.

BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$75,039 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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