The 'Sell America' trade is ramping up with defensive risk action heavy as post-weekend trading restarts, as the US loses it way and financial markets brace for impact
After starting the day at US$4983/ox, gold has shot up to US$5081/oz, a +2% jump.
Silver started the day at US$103/oz and is now at US$108/oz, up almost +5%.
Platinum started at US$2471/oz and is now at US$2873/oz, a +16% surge.
This market action is going on while the US is still in its weekend and the US financial markets are closed. Parallel, the USD as measured by the DXY dollar index has fallen to mid 2022 pandemic levels. Since Trump's January 2025 inauguration, the USD has been devalued by -11%.
From its open today, the NZD has moved from 59.4 USc to 59.7 USc. So far in 2026 it is up +220 bps or +3.8%. It is a move that will help keep a lid on local tradeable inflation, but will not help our export competitiveness. But that export competitiveness effect will only be vs the US as most other currencies are rising against the USD too. And Americans are resigned to paying higher prices in the first place. After all they have to accept the tariff taxes they have imposed on themselves.
The rates referred to in this update are dynamic and will probably be changed when you read this.
For the record, of the equity markets that have opened today so far, Tokyo is down -1.6%, Hong Kong is down -0.2%, Shanghai is down -0.2%, and Singapore is down just -0.1% at its open. These hesitations will become clearer when European markets open tonight, and Wall Street returns after the weekend break. (US companies with global earnings may actually gain on the devaluing greenback, with foreign earnings worth more in these conditions.)
Bitcoin is lower so far today.
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25 Comments
Love this PM surge, yet not so much what it harbingers......
Plenty going on and many people spooked. Granny Herald silent.
Tried to place an order for a rat poison treasury stock this morning and it was rejected for being too low. Only 20% lower than mkt price.
Probably nothing.
🙈
"Love this PM surge,"
But the resulting money (debt) must be recorded somewhere.....where?
The US is hardly a safe haven currently......nor any other destinations for that matter.
Aye.
The Great Reconciliation had to be sooner rather than later.
Is this it? Tell you later. But happen it will.
Too many (most) simply do not understand the nature of 'money'....you cannot have a claim on resources that dont exist or are unavailable.
Germany is facing calls to withdraw its billions of euros’ worth of gold from US vaults. Germany holds the world’s second biggest national gold reserves after the US, of which approximately €164bn (£122bn) worth – 1,236 tonnes – is stored in New York.
Good luck getting it.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/24/repatriate-the-gold-germa…
they will let it leave as long as Germany is quick enough
not letting them take it is the end of the USD
Only a few years ago I remember being laughed at for being a ‘gold bug’ because I recommend people own a small exposure to gold. Not surprisingly it was by someone telling others to ‘be quick’ to buy their next home.
Yeah, but you also pooh-poohed my claims of Trump representing authoritarian fascism, only to lump him in with Hilter, Stalin and Mao only a few months later.
A small exposure to gold won't save anyone.
Thank you for that nugget.
We do need to remember though, that Trump is a result and a symptom, not a cause.
He's an accelerant.
There will be a more strategic and capable version next decade.
Yeah, but you also pooh-poohed my claims of Trump representing authoritarian fascism, only to lump him in with Hilter, Stalin and Mao only a few months later.
Gold is not rising because of DJT P. It is rising because of the $39 trillion in debt, the $2 trillion in annual deficits, and that 25% of tax revenue goes to interest payments.
Gold is at record highs against every currency, not just the dollar.
Gold is not rising because of DJT P. It is rising because of the $39 trillion in debt, the $2 trillion in annual deficits, and that 25% of tax revenue goes to interest payments.
That's a position that's been known for a very long time (you have the current tally, but the overall picture is unchanged). If that was the reason it would've done so years ago.
It's rising because the irrationality of Trump's approach is causing wealth holders to run for the exits. Gold is perceived the safest mechanism for that.
You don't have much idea what's coming.
Trump Derangement Syndrome may have some impact on the gold price P, but it's not the primary driver.
You're free to believe what you wish, but his behaviour is the primary driver. Citing TDS is a way to keep you blind to nuances and variations between personality types. But plenty of those with a lot at stake are getting the picture.
We have a loose American strategy of global military retrenchment, dismantling of pre-existing trade agreements, and a de-prioritisation of American soft power. But being overseen by someone with very reactive, impulsive, and strategy-lite tendencies, living in a post truth bubble.
The rush to gold is a fear derived response to the potentiality of much future uncertainty, and a world extremely weary of the US.
The major catalyst for the move to gold happened in 2022 when the Biden administration and the G7 froze $300b Russian central bank assets and weaponised the dollar.
Central banks started the rotation away from USD reserves and into Gold. This capital rotation is picking up steam.
If you're simply looking at Trump as the cause, you're missing the larger picture.
One issue with people's understanding of history is they over emphasize any one particular instance or event. Some can be more profound in their impact, but most changes have fairly long tails.
There's an obvious change in how America views and relates to the rest of the Globe, that you can roughly see really shifting around the Obama administration, thats been reasonably consistent since.
But aside from that over arching theme, the actions and words of Trump are causing a heightened level of mania and hysteria towards perceived security in precious metals. Rather than a gradual process, central banks and other institutions now have to try to insulate for much more extreme potentialities.
Thank you all for your various opinions, all which have some merit in my opinion. They help me assess what could be a defining cause to exit investments in precious metals.
I can't make any guesses about how long and high the run might be. But there will be a peak, well in excess of what the market will want to trade for gold in return.
Exactly - gold is jumping in response to years of excessively loose monetary policy and high debt from many nations. Central banks claiming inflation is low but gold is saying otherwise.
Trump was initially using DOGE to reduce government spending/waste and thus reduce government debt/deficit spending after inheriting what he did from Biden/Harris with their crazy overspending!
This is a crazy (and intellectually lazy) interpretation of my comments (I don’t agree at all with your interpretation or misrepresentation of my views).
But can’t be bothered rebuking you (if that interpretation brings you happiness, then I’m glad I’ve made you happy) - there are trout with my name on them at a favourite local stream and that brings me happiness - you could add fly fishing as things for people to do in 2026 along with personal relationships development and moral and spiritual work that you suggest on the morning briefing. Good for the soul and mental clarity.
This is a crazy (and intellectually lazy) interpretation of my comments (I don’t agree at all with your interpretation or misrepresentation of my views).
The fact your other reply above falls victim to trivial Dem vs Republican partisanship exemplifies exactly what I'm talking about.
And you tell others to know their history.
Not really much of a fisherman, I'm more trekking and hiking.
Ok - You know best/better than me. You win. Well done!! I’m going fishing.
If you can't even substantiate or defend your claims, that might be a good pointer they could do with some re-evaluating.
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