Awful US jobs data understates the real situation; the US service sector contracts; Fed ponders opacity; Japan and China offer virus aid; iron ore prices fall; UST 10yr yield at 0.60%; oil and gold rise; NZ$1 = 58.5 USc; TWI-5 = 65.5

Awful US jobs data understates the real situation; the US service sector contracts; Fed ponders opacity; Japan and China offer virus aid; iron ore prices fall; UST 10yr yield at 0.60%; oil and gold rise; NZ$1 = 58.5 USc; TWI-5 = 65.5
Oban, Rakiura (Stewart Island)

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of more very bad job loss data in the world's largest economy

American employment levels fell sharply in March. The official non-farm payrolls report showed payroll employment fell by -701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. But these are seasonally adjusted results. Their actual employed workforce fell to 155.2 mln in March from 158.0 mln, and that is a fall of -2,850,000 and probably a far better indication of what actually happened. But this only the situation mid-March; the survey behind these numbers predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures that occurred in the second half of the month. The weekly jobless claims report is a more up-to-date indicator of the shock their jobs market is taking - more than 10 mln people filed for these benefits in March after losing their jobs.

Unsurprisingly, the US service sector PMIs look awful. The widely-watched ISM one showed a sharp fall, but not a contraction. (The survey was taken too early in the month to be relevant now.) The internationally-benchmarket Markit one did show a precipitous decline into a severe contraction and probably more accurately reflects the end-of-month situation.

As the crisis deepens in the US, the threat of bank runs rises (despite their deposit insurance program). Now Fed researchers are wondering if holding back information and data that was once transparent would help control such urges. They conclude it will: "a policy of suppressing information about banks' balance sheets has a significant and positive effect on deposits". The Americans will find it hard to criticise China when they do the same.

There are now 868 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +71 new cases yesterday and lower than the +89 increase the prior day. The number of clusters has been risen to 10. Only one person has died here. There are still only 13 people in hospital with the disease, one in ICU and stable.

Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 1,066,700 and up +65,000 from the 1,001,000 we had this time yesterday. 24% of all cases globally are in the US and they are up +32,200 in one day to 258,200. Germany now has more cases than China, joining Italy, Spain and the US. Australia has now over 5300 cases, and 28 deaths. Global deaths now exceed 56,000. Death rates in Europe are frightening; 12.2% in Italy, 9.3% in the UK, 9.2% in Spain, 9.0% in France. But they are much lower in Germany at 1.4%. The US rate is 2.6% and China was 4.0%. Death rates in the rest of Asia are modest by comparison at about 1.4% in their developed countries.

Japan announced it would supply a 'clearly effective' coronavirus drug free to any country that asks for it. In contrast, the Americans have banned the export of masks and other life-saving production, even to Canada. Meanwhile, China is ramping up "mask diplomacy" in the resulting vacuum.

And China has sharply cut the amount of cash that mid-sized and small banks must hold as reserves, releasing about NZ$100 bln in long-term funding to shore up their economy. They also cut the reserve requirement ratio for those banks by -100 bps, in two phases. But it is holding off cutting retail deposit rate minimums despite bank pressure to do so.

Their private Caixin/Markit services PMI hasn't shown the same full recovery that their factory one did. The Caixin survey shows a still fierce contraction in March, unlike the official services PMI which claimed an expansion. Likely the Caixin survey is more realistic.

The Aussie services PMI doesn't make comfortable reading either.

And the huge Australian superannuation funds are in a liquidity crisis and withdrawals now exceed inflows. It's a sector that is about to be shaken up hard. And the expected fall in iron ore prices is starting to happen now. Prices for steel-making coal have tumbled hard in the past week and iron ore will follow.

Equity markets are lower today. The S&P500 is down more than -2% so far and that will take the weekly change to -2.5% and the change since the peak on February 20 to -26% and a full bear market. Yesterday Asian markets drifted while European markets were down about -1% overnight. Both also bear market trends in the past six weeks.

The UST 10yr yield is lower today so far by -2 bps at just under 0.60% after equaling its all-time low earlier in the day. Their 2-10 curve is less positive today at +37 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also less positive at +20 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is at +50 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.76% which is down -1 bp in a day. The China Govt 10yr is down -7 bps at 2.61% and for them that is a sharp move lower. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also -7 bps lower at 1.03%.

Gold is firmer again today, up by another +US$8, to US$1,618/oz.

The Fear & Greed index we follow is still on the 'extreme fear' side, but only just and not at the critical level we had two weeks ago. The VIX volatility index is still very elevated however, now at 50 when the average before this latest crisis was about 17.

US oil prices are sharply higher again today, at just over US$28/bbl, a +US$3.50 rise. The Brent benchmark is also higher at just over US$33.50/bbl. The US is scoring an own-goal by effectively joining the cartel set up to oppose it. The US rig count fell sharply last week to a level last seen in January 2017. So the Americans will have less domestic oil and higher foreign prices to contend with. It's a losers strategy handing a victory to OPEC and the Russians.

The Kiwi dollar is lower by -½c from this time yesterday at 58.5 USc although it fell lower in-between. We have ended the week with a cumulative loss of almost -2c. On the cross rates we are at 97.6 AUc and a weekly -¼c dip. Against the euro we are at 54.2 euro cents which is unchanged on the week. That means the TWI-5 is at 65.5 and down a full -100 bps for the week.

Bitcoin is now at US$6,731 and down -2.1% since this time yesterday. That represents a flat weekly result, but in NZD this crypto is up +4%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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259 Comments

Interesting read.

What's the chances of that happening with people like Trump and Putin on the planet though?

It seems like there's never been a better time but the kind of thinking that is 200 years ahead of its time.

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We are going to run that experiment here. The powermongers are trotting out Shane Jones, Bill English and - more insidiously in my book - Stephen Joyce. All it would need is Brownlee to complete the set.

But they are dinosaurs, from a past - and temporary - era.

Those who look forward will not necessarily be right, but their chances of being so are better than those who attempt to re-boot a failing paradigm. So we must listen to, and debate with, the forward-lookers. The others should be starved of oxygen - the same way flat-earthers (interesting her comments re economists) were when the planet was understood to be finite

She is a bit more specific on economists - she decries macro-economists while applauding renegade economists (and surprisingly hedge funders)

And you now know climate-change is man-made after all. You may have noticed that climate-change-deniers have had their very essence pulled out from under with the revelation atmospheric pollution in the main cities has plummeted 50% or more in the space of two weeks

So, she is a Canadian earning money whilst living in Costa Rica with an MBA. She's certainly had a lot of time to think way to deeply. The renegade economists and hedge funders.? Wait, what? We don't get to vote anymore in this new world order of equality and new found freedoms. Nope, just listen to me and you can be like me.
We predicted it we did she says! Really?
Cultures are diffurunt she says! Naah, really?
Ignore 1000 year old books (Koran 600 BC) which countries and cultures are founded and built upon. She lost me entirely at this point. Celebrate different cultures but ignore why they exist. She's brilliant not. Just another control freak.
The boomers are checking their bank accounts she says. Doubt she got paid $4000 in cash so who's checking bank accounts then? Yawn.

Kate, for or against NEF? I see they claim no agenda nor political bias. They do mention the new green deal though? Is a job only a 'good' job under a new green deal?

I've followed them for a while now - I like some of their articles, others not so much. I'd say they do have a political bias, as do many lobby groups.

Agree with most of the anti banker and hedge fund comment and how they have caused this economic mess. Also agree with putting them all in a room together, but not hammer out a solution, but to reflect on their work. A box somewhere crappy (Somalia, Mongolia etc) with very very limited resources.

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David, ok I have to admit it , you are a champion the way you just keep churning out the news day after day.
Don't know where I would go for news without you.

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Yes on that note opportune for all of us regulars to contribute to the cause via the donation link. My turn today.

Are you not on PressPatron?

Help! What am I doing wrong?

Click on the "Become a supporter" button shown on the black strip at top centre of the page. Then click on make a contribution and choose your monthly amount.

Ditto.

This for background. What's not happened California - yet.

https://youtu.be/8MJyNl_IvIs
VDH looking at why NYC went off, but CAL, twice the population less so.
And what does a leader do?

Yes, HT. No plan for exiting lockdown. Drowning, [in debt] if society were a human. I wish for economist sharing equal air time as academics , especially epidemiologists.
Robust public debate [on TV] with economic analysis of options and the choices being made by JA without the moral high ground of absolutism of the ethics of "saving lives".

Joe R with Eric Weinstein.
China breathplay. A strategic problem.

https://youtu.be/wf0_nMaQ6tA

You nailed it.

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My daughter is in California and her partner teaches, he's been told to expect schools to stay closed for rest of school year. So mid August next time he gets work.

I don't see how that's going to happen.Ok for him he's getting paid but what about most people, who are having their lives turned upside down?

I think we will be forced to go back to work or some sort of new normal, Jacinda and her cohorts are dreaming if they think they can just ruin people's lives and all they have worked for chasing some ideology that's looking more dubious by the day. viruses have always been tricky little buggers and eradication is nothing but a pipe dream, unless we want to self isolate for 2 years, even then no guarantee, but will all be poor as church mice by then.

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I agree with your post AJ. You say: "Jacinda and her cohorts are dreaming if they think they can just ruin people's lives and all they have worked for"
Well so far that's exactly what they have been doing and I'm annoyed there is no open discussion if lockdown is the right thing to do or not. Honestly it feels like we're in a dictatorship, told what to do with no say of our own

We have our say come September, when financial pain has really been set in, and large number to feel it most are the labour voting base. People realise can't do much on the benefit vs their old job pay packet

But why will they vote for a party that has provided even worse conditions for them in the past, and is overly obsequious to the Chinese Communist Party in the present?

The virus is a gift to the world from the Chinese Communists.

The world should have NOTHING to do with them after this.

Sept is too late for most of us and the economy.

What is another avenue available to the people now?

You obviously have not seen the reports that New York Governor Cuome has seized all ventilators in New York and Trump has invoked a Defence Production War Act forcing companies to manufacture PPE equipment

Yep. The only people that are okay/happy with the decision are the people that are still working or receiving enough income to cover expenses. I'm in neither situation and I'm livid. I'm normally slightly left leaning but I'm not voting for horse face this coming election. She is way off balance.

As a small business owner unable to operate, these comments restore my faith in people.

JA is dangerous. Her ideology is dangerous. It's all there online in her original youth socialism comrade YouTube videos. Have a look if you haven't already seen them. Pretty disturbing. This is our leader.

I feel sorry for the small business owner. Some of the rules make no sense; it's like MBIE has picked someone to randomly choose from a hat which businesses can open. The ones that irk me the most are the butchers and fruit/vegetable stores that have to close. They are in the best position to stick to the rules with smaller stores and having a lot more to lose. I say keep them open.

The whole level 4 idea is a joke. I'm all for saving lives but people need to have some sort of personal responsibility. I would have liked to see everyone over 80 isolate and everyone over 70 strongly recommended to isolate. Anyone with pre-existing condition should also isolate. They could even receive wage subsidy. But no, we've all got to risk our jobs and livelihoods

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"in New Zealand, with another +71 new cases yesterday and lower than the +89 increase the prior day. The number of clusters has been risen to 10. Only one person has died here. There are still only 13 people in hospital with the disease, one in ICU and stable".
If we can nail this thing Andrew and keep our borders locked down - we have a good chance of some sort of (new) normal life returning - export - export - export - the world needs our food.
Just look at the USA to see what poor leadership looks like ..dog eating its tail

The USA is 'the land of the free', it's very hard to tell them what to do. People would rather take their chance with the Virus than give up freedoms.
It appears we are pinning our hopes on a vaccine but flu vaccines are always chasing last years flu. Also by now there should be people dying all over India/ Africa etc, bucket loads of them.
If we really want to eradicate this, we are going to be in lock down and isolated from others countries for years.

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So you are suggesting open up and everyone for themselves? That's not the country I know...beautiful day downhere - suggest we all go for a run/walk and enjoy it.

I don't think we can eradicate it. I also think we should show compassion and kindness to people. I also think governments get most things wrong most of the time, we survive in spite of them.

Well in USA 'the land of the free' and other hot spots like Italy, this virus is starting to mutate and effecting more then just the older generations.
Andrew don't forget that the US is currently swamped with cases and is up there as one the most infected countries, thanks to Trump. And in Italy, one of the largest outbreaks in the world, 10% to 15% of all people in intensive care are under 50. So perhaps NZ will have to bar certain countries from entering here once we can lift our lockdown.

Worldmeter Coronavirus: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
CNBC article: WHO says ‘more and more’ young people are dying from the coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/who-says-more-and-more-young-people-are-...

Yes the USA has a problem, but this is nature doing what it does when you get people in very confined places eating all sorts of dodgy food. Then you make it easy for them to get on planes and fly to all corners of the earth.

Everything in life gets a price on it, divorce, your time and even your health. I was in India and a farmer friend an I were discussing our health problems, he had a gummy eye, I was losing weight fast. We figured that India would spend 5k on us, then we would be on our own, life in India had a value and we could work out what it was.

I think Trump would be the first to admit that he takes advice from specialists on these things, we just should have listened to them when they told the risks were high for the last decade or two.

I think slowing the spread down is good policy, the US has a lot of unhealthy people who have been bought up inactive and eating junk food, at the end of the day you really are what you eat. Obesity is out of control in the West today.

It is also crazy for every death being put down to corona when there were complications. It's like have a heart attack while driving and hitting a tree, cause of death is poor road placement.

Trump isn't helping, he got rid of the Pandemic Unit for crying out loud and he only cares about the stock market and his own image. A lot of this could have been easily prevented and the US wouldn't be in this huge mess that it's in right now.

Trump get the blame for everything, somehow I suspect there's a lot more going on under the surface than we can see. The US has been built around freedom. Freedom of movement and to do what you damn well want ,as much as possible as long as it doesn't affect others.

That is not going to be easy to change and I for one don't think they should. This thing is scary but so is losing all our hard fought freedoms.

Americans voted for Trump and his popularity is going up not down. It's their choice who gets to be president not ours and I think we should respect their decisions same as we do Russia or Germany.

Attention.
1314 deaths and climbing in the US TODAY!
In the last three hours it has climbed from 900.
Time I Washington DC 7.30pm. 4.5 hours left in the day.
The US population isn't going to take this lightly.
Let's say an average of 1800 deaths a day for the next week, so 12,600 deaths next week. A 2500 average the week after that.... 3500 average the week after that.
Looking bad for the USD and stocks.

no, many are going to die, but that's a choice they had, in the end they could come out stronger. Judging is hard.

Breeding from the good stock, the rest go to the knackers yard. Not the Labour way....

Too late for that, breeders have breed by the time this virus gets them.

Fair call until it dose what viruses do and mutate and come back for the younger ones.

China has undergone a modern day industrial revolution and done it at high velocity in less than fifty years. They have in the course of this created millions on millions of urban peasants, deliberately uneducated, especially unworldly. That in late January a Chinese national was intercepted at Washington DC international airport with a poly bag of dead birds confirms all of that and their ability to jet their peculiar cuisine and lotions and potions to any part of the world in less than 24 Hours. Bio bombs in other words.

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We were drowning in debt prior to the virus, hell bent on saving house prices, stock markets and GDP, no matter the cost and ruining peoples lives along the way, for what, just another ideology!

"We're all going to be as poor as church mice..." - only according to belief and a measuring system imposed on us, by us.

We only have to look out the window and see the real wealth all around us. It's still there and ain't going nowhere no matter what our "prices" are doing. So the obvious issue is only a matter of ownership. You have a home, family and friends to depend on? You ain't poor.

Yeah, a new normal is required and it was never going to be created while we ran about doing busyness, make work as usual. If not the virus, something else was going to bring us to this point in time.

What ideology are they chasing that looks more dubious by the day?
Where does this notion of 2 years in self-isolation come from?
We're in a four week lock down, folks.
Nothing more, nothing less at this stage.
Anything beyond that is pure scaremongering and speculation

I suppose it’d be far easier to let them die.

Poor maybe but alive.

Herd immunity needs to be discussed more thoroughly but it can only be done when we have a better idea of the real number of infections, which means carrying out 100 - 1000 times more tests than currently. See Keith Woodfords' article on Interest today

OMG, a PhD in classics, most noted for his work as a military historian, commenting on his 'idea' about CA's herd immunity.

Are you serious?

He said one very interesting fact in amongst all his non-qualified drivel - that being that 27% of people in CA are illegal immigrants.

That tells us that nearly one-third of the CA population is not included in the health and/or death statistics. But he didn't say that.

Instead, let's compare the density of NYC and LA:

NYC - Density 27,751/sq mi (10,715/km2)
LA - Density 8,092/sq mi (3,124/km2)

There, I did a simple bit of Wiki research and provided you with an alternative bit of food for thought. But I'm hardly claiming density is the single most important difference between the scale of the epidemic in LA vs NYC.

Let's just look to the epidemiologists as opposed to the military historians is all I'm saying.

Bit like our resident expert Rewi W with his epidemiologist by line ( now not used anymore) criticising the govt.
As an ex professor he should know the wisdom of authoring articles outside his area of expertise.

A phd in any field is usually a reliable marker the recipient is capable of interpreting information and distilling the salient points.

In fact, I am more sceptical of many so-called subject matter experts who are politically aligned or fearful of speaking out than I am
of someone with a degree in a tangental field.

From my perspective the decision is clear, where is the break-even between economic cost and lives saved. We should be doing everything
possible to build ICU capacity so that we can manage any future spike. NZ has to exit lockdown within 3 weeks.

"A phd in any field is usually a reliable marker the recipient is capable of interpreting information and distilling the salient points."

A PhD is a specialisation in one niche area culminating in a research paper in a new area. I have friends who have completed PhD's.

There is no way I would take advice from them in unrelated areas. One danger of PhD's is that due to their academic success in one specialised area, they can become over confident in other areas, and unaware of potential risks and dangers.

For example one friend completed their PhD in engineering. This person has gone on to become a leveraged property investor with about 15 or so investment properties (with at least one in Queenstown that I know of). This person is aware of the long term debt cycle.

Another friend completed their PhD in a niche area of economics. They subsequently went into business - owning 1) a small soccer club 2) vineyard 3) wine distribution business. 4) investment fund management business. All have since gone into some state of financial distress.

There are many others who have completed Masters Degrees. Once again, outside their field of expertise, dangerous to take their advice of unrelated matters.

Here's another example:

You have just suffered a heart attack and are starting your path to recovery. Which doctor would you prefer to see for advice on how best to recover?

1) PhD in economics
2) PhD in engineering
3) Psychiatrist
4) Brain surgeon
5) Oncologist
6) Radiologist
7) Anaesthetist
9) OBGYN - Gynecologist (for female)
10) Pediatrician
11) Cardiologist
12) Mike Hosking (technically not a doctor, but just to make a point)

The only thing a learnt from that is that you aren’t post grad and that you have no idea what you are talking about.

"you have no idea what you are talking about."

Can you please tell me what I am missing? There are an infinite number of areas which I have no idea about, (and have no idea that I don't know about) so I am open to learning.

Yes you are right, I am not a doctor.
Yes you are right, I am not in academia.

Here is another example for consideration.

A couple of PhD's and Nobel Laureates in economics started an investment fund. These guys were rock stars in the world of international finance. They raised billions of dollars and made investments. The investment fund blew up, as they made financially fatal mistakes, and caused major financial instability in global financial markets. What was the name of the investment fund? Long Term Capital Management (aka LTCM).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

A lapse in critical thinking somewhere perhaps? Did they miss a salient point?

P.S There is a book on this story titled "When genius failed"

A phd doesn't confer any qualities at all, in fact most with that level of intellect lack in area's such as social skills, emotional intelligence and common sense

What a phd does do is teach someone a framework whereby they are Socratic, thorough, methodical, able to interpret and apply statistical methods and generally analyse a problem far more proficiently than the average person.

Would I go to a literary phd with a hernia, no. Would a literary phd be better equiped to analyse a complex issue - yes.

Te Kooti,

Thank you for your explanation.

no problem, apols for being brusque!

Then there are some who aren't even undergraduates, yet people listen to them for some reason. For example:

1) Mark Zuckerberg
2) Bill Gates on epidemics ...

Bill Gates knows a lot more about epidemics than I think you realise. He is also far more intelligent than the average person, and not inclined to weigh in on matters about which he knows little.

Bill Gates has been studying that area, so he is very focused and knowledgeable in that area.

He has recently resigned two corporate directorships to focus his time on this area I believe.

Recommend watching the documentary "Inside Bill's Brain" He is clearly a super smart person.

Bill Gates is a genius. He passed Math 55 course at Harvard, which is ridiculously hard even by standards of a school where most Students have IQ's above 140.

Te Kooti - he's more politically aligned than the average Amercian - and that's saying something!

I really have no idea about the author tbh. My point is that to obtain a PhD, or even any decent masters, you are taught to be Socratic, proficient in statistics, critical reasoning. All these are useful in interpreting and analysing information whether you are a sme or not.

Agree with that. The very nature of the research, the disciplines, the arrangement and presentation of facts and arguments, and the ability to retain knowledge broadens far beyond just whatever the said field might happen to be. Intelligence and intellect does not limit itself to one subject at a time. The trick though is the capacity to take all of that out into the real world usefully and practically, not just from an academic stance.

Exactly, whether it's the arts or hard STEM the process is the same, one of which spending a year wading mountains of research. A phd doesn't mean you are same or correct, just that you have been taught a rigorous process for analysing information.

Hi Kate,

I would encourage you to be a little more generous in your consideration of folk like VDH.

https://youtu.be/wYnfjC3Yp8Y
Here he made the case to celebrate the farmer.

I would recommend you looking at his work around the decline of the State of Califironia and Californian family farms.

As for classicists, who else would you recomend as being on top of their game?
David Starkey yiu think?.

Hi Henry, I always look up mainstream commentators on Wikipedia, not only to check qualifications but also any political alliances.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Davis_Hanson

I imagine his work on agriculture/agrarian history would be really interesting.

Never heard of David Starkey - will have a google :-).

Nothing against classicists at all - as you might know, I'd like to see the NZ curriculum include classical ethics alongside (and to provide an alternate way of thinking) to Enlightenment ethics (deontolgy and teleology/consequentialism).

Cheers.

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A run on the United States banks?! That is the ultimate harbinger of doom. The United States as a nation, state by state, city by city, community by community must keep panic off the streets at all costs. There is such a deep rooted and widespread perception of racial, social and wealth inequality looking for a detonator. Panic will rapidly become rioting. The Rodney King tragedy provides but a small foretaste of the potential.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/01/business/coronavirus-gun-...

Americans bought about two million guns in March, according to a New York Times analysis of federal data. It was the second-busiest month ever for gun sales, trailing only January 2013, just after President Barack Obama’s re-election and the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School.

What could possibly go wrong?

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It's law abiding citizens who no longer trust gov't institutions to protect them. It's failure of Gov't.

No one trusts The States.

Well there's still a good chance that Trump may well catch the coronavirus. Humm, I wonder how Boris is getting on with his recovery. :)
CNBC News: Trump says CDC advises cloth masks to protect against coronavirus, but he will not wear one. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/trump-cdc-recommends-cloth-face-covering...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/u-k-s-johnson-is-stil...

And the Queen is addressing the nation on Sunday UK time.

It would have been by far worse if Hillery had won. With her bad health she would have been a magnet to the WuFlu and a US President dying while in the White House would have sent markets into a unreversable massive dive.

especially the citizens.

The largest military vs. the most heavily armed civilian population on earth. What could go wrong indeed.

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At this time the country needs strong, dare I say it, ruthless leadership. Yes lives matter but so does the wealth of the nation. They are in fact equal in balance.

We don't spend all our treasure keeping people alive in the best of times. Some drugs are not available because they are too expensive. We don't try and keep people alive until they are 110. Medical facilities are often underfunded.

Few older people will want to see the country bankrupted and reduced to worse than Venezuela for their sake. We can manage it anyway.

The lockdown period should be to help us prepare for living with the virus. Build up a supply of PPE. Educate the people about to get back to "normal" life in three weeks time. In three weeks we are going over the top but better prepared and against a weakened enemy.

Been thinking how this may play out politically. Eventually the tide of public opinion will turn from "saving lives" toward "saving the economic future".
Now imagine the Nats replace Simon with someone more direct, combative and polarizing like Muldoon in his heyday. How would that change the landscape.

Muldoon polarising?! Great understatement though. A lot of how MMP came to be had its origins in his government(s) so on the face of it one personality should not be able to become and act power crazy. Still those personalities are about. You could argue that the role assumed by one Mr Brownlie during the Canterbury EQ events and aftermath had similar attributes. Wasn’t exactly popular.

I agree with everything you say, and I am certainly not advocating for another Muldoon. But I can see it possibly playing out. All the ingredients will be there if this recession really takes hold and we see some sort of upheaval last seen in NZ in the 80's.

Beanie.Your musing is valid but prob should have used another example than Muldoon given everything he did is now judged as abysmal in the current collective milieu. As with the reformist politicians such as Roger Douglas who are not only deserving of universal vilification but who should also be 'starved of oxygen' according to those such as PDK above who disturbingly advocate suffocation of views opposing the prevailing orthodoxies. Regrettably no credible street fighter exists in the opposition ranks who is capable of challenging Ardern's slavish submission to the medical technocracy that is dominating the C19 response strategy. Events will expose the cost of her capitulation to the white coats by months end; either horror scenes in south Auckland as the virus rampages in spite of the lockdown or if suppression is successful the dreadful economic and social costs of lockdowns. She'll then no longer be able to outsource policy to the stethoscope wearers, her ministers will have to be coerced into forming actual policy responses that address the reality that there will be ongoing waves of C19 and that we can't keep borrowing and hoping; economic life must restart and being a leader means you have to actually make hard policy choices yourself.

Yep you nailed it. And a streetfighter is the perfect description of who we might end up with. As I say, the ingredients will be there.

The COVID-19 common theme. Covid alone Isn’t killing our people, media, business, tourism, healthcare, society etc. The reaction to it including the lockdown will kill more of the above than the virus. Unfortunately this is not just my opinion. The impact of future government decisions are huge. I really hope NZ inc. navigates the next few weeks with reason and logic.

What would I do in the morning without my pot of coffee and interest.co.nz, stuff.co.nz?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/120761436/there-is-no-easy-way...

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The days of NZ universities having 50k+ Chinese students could be history. In fact the Tourism of the past may never return, but then never is a long long time.

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I do hope we have seen the end of int'l students propping up the balance sheets of our University sector. Much as every one of my mainland Chinese students have been lovely, lovely individuals - they don't add-value to local students in terms of their learning (I would note one exception in this regard over a 10+ year term of teaching). The language barrier and perhaps their different culture (less outgoing, less willing to challenge regulators and hence the status quo) means that in group work, collaborative exercises and the like, there is generally little to no contribution from the mainland Chinese students. In fact, it's quite surprising how concerned (almost frightened) they look when we explore failures in our regulatory state.

But then that's my subject area, perhaps they add-value to NZ students' experience in other subject areas.

Kate. Thanks for your perspective from the teaching front lines, it is informative and refreshingly honest.

I do part time lecturing and have done for a few years I totally agree Kate.

Got a cross-check from my wife who's an ECE lecturer, she agrees on all points.

Thanks all. I'm glad to see others with experience concur. One never knows whether one's own anecdotal experience has much validity.

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Absolute nonsense and straight out of the mouth of Mike Hosking. But interesting that as a National Party spokesman, your mate Mike would turn on you and your boomer buddies and leave you all dying by the thousands. It is rather an unexpected policy shift.
We do have strong leadership and they are doing a substantially better job then most governments around the world.

Substantially, I agree!

Far too early to call it. Across the ditch Morrison is trumpeting the AUS response which is more moderate than ours. And we are yet to see the long term economic and social impacts of our shutdown approach vs that of some countries including baltic states.

I NZ kicks this to the curb I'm guessing that a lot of Kiwi expats will be bugging out of Ozzy after the lockdown to escape the down turn which I picking will be steep.
Could be great a great push forward for NZ.
600k Kiwis in Ozzy I think I heard, that wouldn't include their partners and a lot of their children. A 100k exodus would be good system pump.

Coming back to what jobs? To add to the line out if winz office...be all hugs and kisses for first week then reality will set in.

A great push forward in terms of unemployment figures, sure.

So. What are we saying? Everything about us is changing, so everything can remain unchanged - go back to what it was?
That's not going to happen, in my opinion.
Much better to have a stab at what we think the future will look like after this is over, and see what we can do to be ready.
(Cameron bageries' view, for what it's worth:

There will be a recession. The only question is, how bad.
Does anyone know if there's going to be a five per cent contraction in GDP? Is it going to be seven? Is it going to be 10?
The only thing we can safely say is this economic hit is going to be the biggest I've ever seen in my working life. I've been through the Asian crisis, the GFC and post-1987. This is going to make them look like a walk in the park.
This downturn is underpinned by another great certainty: the failure of countless businesses, leading to a spike in unemployment. Which, in turn, leads us to another inevitability, this time with the Kiwi economic metric of choice: house prices.
House prices are going to go down. There's no point sugar coating it. Unemployment is going to move up. It's going to move up a long way. That's the most important crutch to property prices – whether people have a job. And that crutch is just being removed.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120799098/future-sho...

Then there is an alternative view - possibly one that is going to be quite unique to NZ. And that is that we emerge in a much better position relative to much of the rest of our OECD counterparts.

We went into this in a much better fiscal position than most and we acted more quickly on our lock down than most. And without physical boarders, we are much more able to physically distance/isolate ourselves in terms of secondary outbreaks.

NZ is in quite a unique position (I hope!). We'll make an interesting post-viral case study.

I'm not a DGM on this - both effective treatment and a vaccine will be found. How things pan out globally will depend on the ethical sharing/collaboration between nations once those specific measures are known and developed.

Better fiscal position?
Govt debt only... and that's going to blow out very quickly...our private debt is as bad as anywhere and we are as vulnerable to supply chain disruption as anywhere...
We have massive pain coming

Private debt...let them burn.

Yes, the reference was to government debt.

The private debt will be bailed onto the public.

Privatise the gains. Socialise the losses.

Yes, I think we will be better off 'relatively speaking'.
We should be grateful for that.
However the emphasis is on the 'relative'...it's still going to be very hard, for many.

Absolutely - and that will be across the globe.

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I'll dare to open an extremely touchy subject;
Would we bankrupt hundreds of thousands of businesses and have millions of people lose their jobs worldwide to save 1 (generally eldery) life?
I think most would agree it's not worthwhile. Therefore there is a correlation between price paid (recession/depression/poverty) and benefits reaped (saving "x" amount of lives) that needs to be discussed.
Over to you

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We don't know that it will only be The Elderly that get the chop.
The Next Wave might see it have learned a thing or two (mutated) and it might hit the young - as 1918 did.
Who wants to take that risk? The young - our future to protect - especially?

We will cross that bridge when or if we come to it. Now is the time to put good hygiene measures in place and then get back to work.

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Seriously? "We will cross that bridge when or if we come to it".
Japan, probably the most hygienic place on the planet, has just put Tokyo into lockdown. Japan though they had this sucker licked!
Do we reckon they want to see which bridges they come to and whether to cross it?!

Yes absolutely seriously. Tokyo hasn't done a lockdown yet but we will finish ours in less than three weeks. We have cities that have mostly very self contained houses and not apartments. We have a a low population. I was a big advocate for the lockdown to knock this thing on the head and then change our behaviour.

Viruses can mutate, news just in: In Italy, one of the largest outbreaks in the world, 10% to 15% of all people in intensive care are under 50. World Health Organization officials cautioned Friday that more young people are becoming critically ill and dying due to COVID-19.
CNBC WHO says ‘more and more’ young people are dying from the coronavirus. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/who-says-more-and-more-young-people-are-...

I've got to ask, how much of that is because they are triaging based on age? Ie, does it seem like they have a higher % of young on intensive care because there's much larger population of elderly who are getting turned away?

Totally agree with you Mr Smith

Japan had this sucker 'licked' up until the day after they decided to postpone the Olympics, then the real numbers came out

Cynic! But oh so true!

Hong Kong had the outbreak under control, then the number of infections starting rising again. The cause was citizens returning from Europe, before the lockdowns were implemented in Europe.

FYI who were the travelers? They were children of families in Hong Kong. The children who were studying abroad, returned to be with their parents. Its the second wave. Now Hong Kong has banned non residents from entering Hong Kong.

The challenge is that not all nations are at the same stage with the virus. Some later stage nations could have travelers that begin a new wave of infections if travel becomes unrestricted.

Just heard that Singapore is now being hit the a second wave of virus infections. Just gone into lockdown.

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Luckily there are lots of examples around the world of different government strategies in play. Most will end up in similar positions economically once the dust settles, some will have horrendous loss of life though, while other may not. Sadly the world is about to see what happens (ie the USA) when you don't act quickly, and aggressively and with clear and cohesive leadership WRT a novel viral pandemic. They will lose hundreds of thousands, and still get destroyed economically. Your plan shows a lack of understanding about viral vectors, and their scant regard for age, gender, and political persuasion, and an underestimation of the human fear-element. For most countries, there will be no back to normal after this. We are luckier than most down in NZ, and even if there are legitimate criticisms of the COL handling, we have probably one of the best outlooks possible from a shit situation.

I totally agree with your very sensible comment.

Well said Pacman!

Come on General HubHub we await the order to fix bayonets otherwise I might have to call in an airstrike on our own positions.

At some point this needs to be addressed Yvil. The cost of saving everyone will be too great

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Remember that if you ever end up on a ventilator gasping for breathe...

It's the fate of many people unfortunately even without the virus. My mother, a geriatric nurse, called pneumonia "the old people's friend".

bw, you are obviously very scared of death. Death is a normal part of life, about 200'000 people die every single day for many different reasons. You and I will die too, hopefully not too soon but is it fair to keep the world ransom for your own life?

"You and I will die too, hopefully not too soon but is it fair to keep the world ransom for your own life"

Yvil,

Does your high confidence here comes from the likelihood that you believe you have many more years ahead of you (due to you likely being younger in age than BW)? I suspect that this is the perspective of many of the younger commentators here. When people think that something is unlikely to happen to them personally, then they are more likely to make these type of remarks.

It might also be a function of a person's individual beliefs - there are some people willing to die as they believe that waiting in heaven for them are 72 virgins.

When you get nearer to the end of your life, you will likely have a higher appreciation of your own mortality. At the moment, your own mortality seems a long way off.

How would you feel, if for some reason, you were drafted into the military and told that you had to go to Bergamo, Italy (where there has been a high death rate), or an area affected by Ebola, to help with the medical situation there? and by the the way, you will not be provided with any protective gear.

Or the following moral dilemma
If you caught the coronavirus and you needed a ventilator. There is another person who also has the coronavirus, who is younger and healthier than you. There is only one ventilator. Would you choose to not take the ventilator and let the other person have it? Different people will make different choices.

I think Yvil might finally be aware that house prices could fall so like many property spruikers may decide falling on the sword (literally I hope not) is better than actually witnessing it in first person.

Spot on IO, I now think that house prices will collapse by 150% therefore I would rather die from CV asap

Would you rather die from a virus or starve to death?

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We can't prioritise the economy over lives. This is Trump's solution to what's happening over there, and it's about to get very ugly.

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That and this new virus isn't just about old people anymore: WHO says ‘more and more’ young people are dying from the coronavirus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/who-says-more-and-more-young-people-are-...

Wait until there's nothing in the supermarket
Then you will come round
There is no option but to coexist with the virus

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Sick of hearing this bollocks.
Tell me its ok for a few to die when it is YOUR next of kin, someone YOU are bothered about, who you cannot bury or see when they are dying etc
Economy first, people nowhere perspective. Eugenicist revival meeting

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It's ok for a few people to die including myself if it means the world suffers less. There you go, that's my opinion. I wouldn't want to hold the whole world ransom so that I can live a few more years.

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Sorry but the economy isn’t some cold and distant utilitarian concept. It fundamentally affects our lives. Our well-being, livelihoods and health.
I am tired of people thinking of the economy in this way. The Swedes don’t, and they are right.
Mike, maybe you have a large inheritance or something. But for most people, we need a good and steady income to survive.

There needs to be a balance between mitigating the health impacts of this thing and getting the economy back and running like something even remotely approaching functionality.

It does not need to be an ‘either or’ choice.

Fritz. I reckon it's worth trying an either or short term lockdown approach such as NZ has for a month. But this 'ere virus ain't going away, it'll be back even if we do stamp it out this time. My concern is the ability of this motley coalition crew to create and deploy sound policy for the post lockdown stage.... some Yvil style utilitarian calculations will be unavoidable and the col won't have the luxury of time to kick this can down the road by setting up a committee.

Agree - 'we the people' are the economy.

"There needs to be a balance between mitigating the health impacts of this thing and getting the economy back and running like something even remotely approaching functionality."

What is an acceptable balance? That is the moral dilemma. Different people will have different answers.

For example, two extreme scenarios:
1) 0.01% lives lost for 20% of remaining population to become unemployed and homeless
2) 20% lives lost for 0.01% of remaining population to become unemployed and homeless

That is the (very difficult) question indeed, nevertheless one that needs to be addressed

I recall a couple of weeks back Yvil mentioned having an elderly mother in Switzerland (bordering Italy) and being very relaxed about the whole idea. Psychopath comes to mind.

We have a much loved 90 yr old mum. One sniff of C19 and she'd be gone so we have her wrapped in isolation under a military style regime. Her life is in our hands, she's our family's individual responsibility not the states. But like Yvil we are realistic about her chances, that's different to psychopathic.

True Nzdan and just to clarify, SHE is the one who said she was relaxed about it. Her words (translated into english) "I'm 81, I've lived my life and I had a good life, if I have to go soon, so be it, if I get a few more years it's a bonus"

by Yvil | 14th Mar 20, 7:16pm
I have an 81 year old mum in Switzerland (which is bordering Italy) and yes I am still relaxed

Where did Yvil hurt you Nzdan?

If people were that worried about it, they wouldn't be out and about like it is a day off. They would be staying at home!

To be expected that you would come out with this Eugenicist tripe
So, you KNOW how many will die (extra) if NZ did a USA policy, or bugger all do you?
No, we are not in possession of that info.
I knew that within a few days of lockdown the Right Wing would be out with this argument.
NZ is 3-4 weeks behind rest of world in the surge curve, so, just when you want restrictions lifted, the surge is coming.
Brilliant. Again, I put the question: its ok if its your relative is it?

I've answered your question above Mike but yes it is my opinion, if it means the rest of the world suffers less. Mike, I have some bad news for you, you will die, we all will, until then enjoy life and don't take it so seriously and don't take others hostage to prolong your own life

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"don't take others hostage to prolong your own life"....just when I thought you had reached the depths of disdain you roll out that one. I hope your AirBNB never gets another booking ever.

Frazz, I'm sorry you have so much hate within you. Wishing others misery "I hope your AirBNB never gets another booking ever" to try to bring them down to your level, doesn't make you any better off.

Still digging to get down to your level ...need a excavator me thinks

Yep, am fine with quite a few relatives

Current modelling by the NZ Government's university research group indicate that without preventative measures the death toll could be between 13,000 and 24,000.
I have a couple of books on the 1918 Flu pandemic in New Zealand; this killed 9,000 people in a little over a month which in terms of today's population equates to around 40,000.
Prof Geoffrey Rice (ex Otago University) wrote a history on the 1918 pandemic estimated that a similar pandemic could kill 35,000. The first five minutes of a 2018 presentation of his is worth watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qTFoc3UJj4 . He was warning of this risk two years ago.
Every pandemic is different as the virus is different, however, some takeaways from our 1918 experience:
- the pandemic was essentially mismanaged and was left unchecked although some local councils took action
- it lasted little more than a month but killed 9,000 (equating to 40,000 today) and was half the 18,00 killed in the four years of WW1
- national death rates varied by 84 fold so its impact was quite variable
- the virus mutated during that month and became a more virulent strain (has this happened in Spain and Italy?)
- the 20-29 age group had the highest death rate
- it is thought that exposure to previous flu epidemics (there were a few smaller ones late 19th century) tended to provide older age groups better immunity
- poor living conditions in areas such as Newton Wellington and rural Maori rural had far higher death rates, (although Maori deaths were under-reported it was seven times European rate), and
- the pandemic killed over 22% of the Samoan population.
Although we don't currently have a vaccine for this virus, a positive we now have antibiotics which can address secondary consequences which are often the cause of death.
Given the Government endorsed current modelling of around 20,000; the choices seem to be either
- lock down with serious economic impacts or
- no lock down, significant deaths, and serious economic chaos.
I going with the first one.
I think that weak confused leadership in the US is going to show this; many deaths and very serious economic consequences.

P.S. CJ099 and Mike we agree on this! :)

Happy to talk about the touchy subject from my own personal point of view.

Just the other day, the Director General of Health explained that ambulance services had been given the order not to resuscitate known coronovirus patients. Oddly, that sort of went under the radar. But it was obviously aimed at emergency response, particularly with respect to the elderly. I don't think most elderly with underlying complications (i.e., those unable to fight off the virus of their own accord) would disagree with that call. The first thing my husband and I did was tell the children that if we die during this epidemic, we don't want funerals. Then the government actually implemented that as one of their transmission reduction measures. Then we said we do not want to be intubated if we catch this virus. And now it seems the government has introduced a measure to prevent many elderly patients from the same, perhaps pointless, exercise.

It really comes down to elder choice. The elderly lady who is our only recorded death chose not to be placed on a respirator. And our health personnel make those ethical decisions on a regular basis. Nothing to do with equipment availability or the like, but everything to do with respect for their patients and an understanding of the integral place in modern medicine for palliative care.

And see, I didn't even need to discuss the economic cost or societal value of saving a life at all.

Exploring our morals and ethics to a greater degree in decision-making will become a likely by-product of the situation the world now faces. And it can't come too soon.

Or the opposite happens and we head back into a modern form of the dark ages. From Empires we move back into tribes and forget about common good including valuing things like morals/ethics.

Can' see it.

Nor did the Romans.

Yep two sides to this, we are only hearing stats, forecasting from one, let's here more from the other effects. Domestic violence, less $ for charitys, mental health, suicides, marriage breakups,crime, increased drug use, etc etc..we need balanced debate

You have ZERO evidence that all of the above wouldn't happen if we didn't lockdown though.

This is the most infuriating aspect of all the anti-lockdownists who seem to think that it's a clean choice between letting some old people who were dying soon anyway die or economic collapse. They have invented two fantasy pandemic scenarios neither of which are actually happening anywhere in the world.

DBag Trump. Forbes article: 3M Blasts Back At Trump: Company Says Not Selling Masks To Canada Could Spark Retaliation. "3M issued a warning regarding the Trump Administration’s request to cease exports to markets in Latin America and Canada, saying it would not only bring up “significant humanitarian implications,” but that other countries would be likely to retaliate in the form of ending shipments to the U.S".

"Trump, meanwhile, had criticized 3M Thursday night, saying the company “will have a big price to pay,” apparently for exporting the masks".
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/04/03/3m-blasts-back...

How hard is it to make masks? These have got to be the simplest things ever to make!

Depends you could go out in style, though not sure how protective it would be but you would look cool. BBC South Korean fashion designer switches to face masks. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/business-51967276/south-korean-fashion-desig...

I've ordered this one:

Nice mask

I'm sure they'll be more comfortable then the surgical masks that I've got. :)

Check out a melt blown fabric machine. Not as simple as you may think.

Aren't 3M retailers being investigated for price gouging?

More and more it is being shown how the US government, as well as those around the world, have made a grave miscalculation. The “strong” economy of Jay Powell’s dream was every administration’s insurance policy to take the most extreme coronavirus countermeasures. They’d prioritize total shutdowns on the belief the economic (and financial) system could handle them.

Everyone, and I mean everyone, had listened to Economists and central bankers talk up the situation in late 2019. What recession scare, they asked by December. The economy’s in great shape moving into 2020.

Nope. It wasn’t true and now we’re going to pay the price. Link

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Want to get a Home Loan from ANZ on Monday? Good luck!

"ANZ Bank chief executive Shayne Elliott has warned the coronavirus crisis will have a “material” impact on Australian house prices and affect the national psyche for an entire generation.’
‘”I’m not going to give you a price prediction, but you’d have to think it was material,” he said. “It’s not going to be 2 or 3 per cent, it’s got to be a material [effect].” Mr Elliott, who is from New Zealand, cited the example of his grandparents, who lost their home in the 1930s Great Depression. He said his father remembered the stories growing up, and it “scarred him for life in terms of his approach to borrowing.”

BW,

Those are very interesting comments from the CEO of a major mortgage lender in Australia and NZ.

The question is how many highly leveraged property owners:
1) believe him
2) will act accordingly

Four years ago, against the backdrop of rising property prices in NZ, strong economic growth, high consumer confidence, high business confidence & low unemployment, the CEO of ANZ NZ at the time, David Hisco came out with a warning about property prices and his warning was ignored by most.

Given the current environment and backdrop, Shane Elliott's message might be taken more seriously by more highly leveraged borrowers. How many property owners in NZ might consider his message relevant to the situation in NZ, and take action?

It is interesting that recent property price action, economic environment, unemployment, risk of job losses, consumer confidence levels and business confidence levels, at the time a message is delivered, can have a huge impact on whether a message is more widely received or widely ignored by the public.

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OMG. So, in his personal life the lessons of his father and grandparents "scarred him for life" in terms of his approach to borrowing ... but he didn't apply the same prudence with respect to the direction he took the ANZ bank customers in?

Isn't that a case of a leading debt peddler's mea culpa combined with an I'm okay - you're (likely) not.

Sheeeeeesh. Probably a really good mate of JK.

Sums up a generation of men in my opinion - looks like if you're going to play the game you play to win.

Lol. Just another clueless DGM who doesn't understand how the property clock works.

I take my advice on future house prices from proper experts like Bindi Norwell, Anne Gibson, Tony Alexander and Ashley Church.

It will be a rapid "flourishing" V shaped recovery where the market soars to ever greater heights.

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I can tell you that I for one will be going back to work as normal at the end of the current lockdown period. The government asked us to give them time to prepare and flatten the curve, not go on a virtue signalling crusade. They should be on notice from all business owners.

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That's the spirit Somebloke. I'm promoting you to Captain.

Good point about "flatten the curve". People don't seem to understand what that means. It means we manage this so ICU doesn't get overwhelmed.

We have to be careful here about people's motivations. People are coming at this from all different angles. Some want an economic apocalypse to bring about the "reset". They will want economic lockdown until this happens. Others are very concerned about elderly or unwell relatives or themselves over and above the future of the country. They will sacrifice everything for this safety. Others want a good future for their children. They want to face the risks. Others are too close to the medical side of things and are one-eyed. Women and men generally have different emotions about this. Men want to fight and women preserve.

Nice summing up.

Great posts, both of you Somebloke & ZS

It looks like the plan changed to eliminating the virus.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120731346/coronaviru...

Went run out country just out chc, looks like number builders already back to work, plus one electrican.

I can tell you that I for one will be going back to work as normal at the end of the current lockdown period. The government asked us to give them time to prepare and flatten the curve, not go on a virtue signalling crusade. They should be on notice from all business owners.

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Actually, this is a good time for business-owners to be put on notice by the planet. This was just a wee wake-up call, as were the Australian bushfires, as is coral die-back, as is the Great Extinction. We are overshot as a species, and drawing down the resources (including its absorption capacities) at exponential rates.

You can trace that back to 'business'.

Time we set limits, and learned to live within them. Which means eliminating growth. Yes, some trading will qualify - but not 90% of it. That was just parasiting on a very temporary draw-down. That's irrespective of the virus.

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I'm a conservationist. I've probably planted more trees than you've had hot dinners. Theres no assumptuon that business is the enemy of the planet. As Bananarama so eloquently told us, Its not what you do its the way that you do it.

Nope
Business mandates profit = growth in resource drawdown
Ultimately no way round that...

Correct. :)

Some folk seem to need to remain ignorant....

If Labour get this wrong, they will be in opposition for a very long time.

If the planetary leaders of any hue get this wrong, there will be no society formal enough to support electable Parties.

Sigh.
Perspective.
Is a great thing.

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Fritz really, do you seriously think if National were in power that they would have had the courage to stand up the Chinese ambassador as Jacinda did just a few weeks ago when China was the main source of this new virus that's now sweeping the world. Remember when China was trying to force NZ to keep our boarders open: "When in prosperity friends know us, and when in adversity we know our friends."
Nationals Soyaman would have buckled in seconds and we would have been in the same place where Italy is right now with 119,827 people infected and 14,681 dead!
Article: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern hopes to lift Chinese travel restrictions 'as soon as possible' and says there's sound footing to restore, normalise and advance NZ-China relations. https://www.interest.co.nz/news/103725/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern%C2%...

I didn't pass judgement on how National would have handled this. I agree they almost certainly wouldn't have stood up to China as Labour have, Points to Labour for that.
However....I think the government is handling this really poorly. Lack of information and lack of transparency. Some questionable financial decisions. Clark's moronic behaviour. Not making the most of this questionable lockdown, such as not quarantining .The list goes on.

Yes, and if they get it right they'll be told how lucky they got. Meanwhile, if National got it wrong they'd be "unlucky" whereas if they were to get it right they'd be deemed astute leaders.

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So, Citibank CEO tells us (mate of Trump) : "this is not a financial crisis"
Bank runs to be prevented b not telling people what is happening.
Superannuation funds in Aus have liquidity crisis.
And comments on here saying RE market in NZ will be fine in a few months.
Credit markets are screwed and mortgages are not going to be impacted. DREAM on.

I think this is a very good video of why the U.S. is in such a dire situation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z42G8Wus4kA

Yep, Trump = Epic FAIL!!!

and our MOH had a plan ?

Yep, lock us up until… until…. until they come up with a better plan. I guess we better prepare for another 4 weeks then, and then…. maybe another 4… and then...

I've said it before Yvil, and I'll say it again. If they extend this lockdown our economy and society is toast. Burnt even more than it already is.

Agree entirely, while at the same time I believe they will extend it for some weeks.....

Company I work for has already indicated a 10% reduction in labour if this goes 6 weeks, then another 10% if
8 week's. Funny thing we are one of the industries they thought would lead a recovery, but with no details no plan, just cheap talk for the media.

Dir General of Health today suggested that the trend of new infections here looks to be leveling. But we need more data. The lock down is working. I'd say if we can hold our nerve, we'll be in the best position of any nation in the world to manage the transition to re-opening local commerce.

Predictions that Level 4 will go on beyond the initially prescribed 4 weeks is plain and simple scaremongering. Really, just give it a rest.

I very much hope you are right Kate : )

Not scaremongering. Look at other countries with lock downs, new cases take a long time to peak and are very slow to drop as there is still some transmission. Italy locked down 4 weeks ago, peaked 2 weeks ago and has only fallen 20-30% since - still 2.5x more new cases each day than at lock-down. What will govt do if we get to 4 weeks and still have 50+ new cases a day, same as we had when lockdown was implemented? That scenario seems pretty likely given weak arrivals quarantining, ongoing mixing in supermarkets, and health sector workers getting exposed.

Andrewj. It appears your anti-Trump education is failing. Please report to your nearest woke re-education centre.

Lesson 1.
You are allowed to blame Trump for anything and everything. He is a mythical God who not only has control over everything whether it be animal, mineral, or vegetable... but the entire space/time continuum.

Now please repeat the following until it can be the only truth:
"I will never question the centuries of Cultural, Legislative, and bureaucratic US history. Everything is Trumps fault."

The reason he gets some blame is down-playing the virus (just look at how he back pedals and lies as time goes on).

'Trump's coronavirus calendar':
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch7_t2Ri2Zg

I also think disbanding the pandemic team probably warrants some blame. You may think otherwise though...

Don't get me wrong, he is an idiot of a person and he definitely deserves some blame. But I think 99% of the time it is a case of hating the man, rather than the message.

He could say the sun is hot and water is wet. Yet half the western world would disagree on the sole basis that he was the one that said it.

Orange Man Bad

Diversity is our strength.

You said it.

Andy. See the second part here, match the time lines to actions, what would you have done earlier?

https://youtu.be/3J_RR0tJYn8

That's a bit dumb. Fletcher Building were in a whole lot of trouble in terms of project overruns; operating on absurdly low margins; picking the wrong sites for development; and so on - well before the virus. Problem is in many cases they've become nearly 'all we've got' left given the other big end of town failures (again, failures prior to the virus).

Here's hoping they come through it.

Here's hoping the government restarts the MOW.
Fletcher have largely been authors of their own demise.

the mechanisation today is going to mean the numbers employed won't be like the past.

Fritz, they are preparing to get a new Ministry of Works up and running. It's being fast-tracked now.

Well, don't forget they were having to compete with the likes of those that have now disappeared. I mean, what construction company puts Jenny Shipley on its board?

OMG really? Can you point to any example n recent history where government has proven capable of getting stuff done on time and budget? Kiwirail, Billion trees, Auckland airport train.. so many others. MOW were legendarily bad when they were done away with. They would be worse in our cotton-wool diversity olympics world.

I bet the apprentice who started the convention roof fire is sleeping better these days. Fletcher pocketed a nice insurance packet after that one.

Very interesting. China need to pay for this big time. If western governments don't do anything, we can all do things individually that will cumulatively hit China. And help the planet.

Interesting to do the carbon calculator right. Ordinarily our household is about 30-40% below the median household in terms of CO2, it's about 50% now.
Getting a lot of benefit out of the solar panels too, optimal weather.

Jump to 3 mins in, UK 4. All patients in IC are 50 or younger. oh shit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejlbCmRJMW4

Thanks, that's worth watching the whole way through. Very, very worthwhile.

i found it terrifying, absolutely the worst outcome for the world. Look up what's happening in Ecuador. So we could find ourselves in isolation for a long long time.

We could find our country in an int'l form of boarder isolation for a very, very long time - but that doesn't necessarily mean NZers would also be in an in-country isolation for a very, very long time.

This thought gives me no joy, as I've got children, grandchildren and other relatives and loved ones overseas. But, I do think NZ is in a special place in the world right now. What worries me is that NZers fail to stay the course for the four-week prescription. We have to keep the faith (corny as that sounds).

Just one example of NZ dependency on China

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/property/120736802/coronavirus-travel-ban...

NZ economy to be a rock star be it in tourism, Hospitality or Housing and other assets/ business - has to admit and accept China as our Masters / be a colony of China

Like drug/casino or any bad habits, intially easy acess and cheap to get use to it and once start to fill high and get addict can dictate as will not be able to survive without that supplier/ power and in this case is China.

Let the dependency burn.

Just gone hi cold turkey like it or not.

falling lamb schedules, the tough times begin, again.

New Zealand, like many small nations enticed into China's web, is too small to matter in isolation to China. What we do, doesn't matter.
What matters to China is the USA.
That is going to be a challenge for them worth watching. And as for us, and those other small nations? We'll be 'asked' to 'pick a side' and I'll be surprised if it's China.....

Brazil just confirmed first case 23 Jan. 14 day incubation and it's been in Brazil for 3 months. That's going to take some stopping.
https://g1.globo.com/bemestar/coronavirus/noticia/2020/04/02/ministerio-...

5 day delay on local lab testing results as numbers of tests rise.

Mark my words ......if you thought New Zealand was an un-equal society now , wait 24 months and see what the landscape looks like

Thought I'd share some good news... well, good being relative - all depends how you see things of course.

Many will already have had a hint it's coming but Labour are cooking up a new version of the Ministry of Works. This is currently being put together now as a means of mopping up newly unemployed construction and infrastructure workers and addressing serious infrastructure deficits around the country. So, some more big spending coming, but hopefully we'll see an investment for generations to come. From what I gather the work is likely to mainly require skilled trades/ construction workers, not the likes of hipster baristas out of work. However, maybe there is scope there for an apprenticeship scheme, who knows.

The objective is large-scale affordable housing around the country (heard that one before!), only using prefabs, maybe from Fletchers'Flat Bush factory. An eco-element will more than likely need to be included in the design, so maybe slap a few solar panels on, call it eco. Anyway, thought I'd share this as it's something to watch but again - as we all know, they need the land and sections to stick the cheap houses on.

and the people in the houses need jobs

No they aren't.. they going use kaikora model after earthquakes to get infrastructure going.. blue print is already there.. trust me on this one

How sad it was tonight watching news on flower grower about to loose his business because short sightness of GR and JA. 30 year's of his hard work down drain. GR doesn't realise difference paying wage subsidy and business not having any T/O to cover other OH.. complete incompatance from government on this....

onto it FMC, i needed some light bulbs for my tractor, local electrical shop semi closed only essential. Supercheap website won't sell them ,but Repco no trouble at all. It's all friggin B/S, govt stuffing up local economy by closing fruit shops small retailers, while supermarkets win win. How can small businesses go a month with no income but still pay rates, wages etc?

It is beyond comprehension that smaller businesses supplying food are shut down, there is no logic in it at all.

Better read this.
Will it sort out the legal mess to date about powers.
Pity the police to date for they were given an impossible position.
And this fix is from.... the MOH.

At the prompting of the Epidemic Response Committee.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120824045/coronavirus-...

The rules, set out in a Health Notice issued by the Director General of Health, Dr Ashley Bloomfield, include:

Everyone in New Zealand is to be isolated or quarantined at their current place of residence except as permitted for essential personal movement.

• Exercise is to be done in an outdoor place that can be readily accessed from home and two-metre physical distancing must be maintained.

• Recreation and exercise does not involve swimming, water-based activities (for example, surfing or boating), hunting, tramping, or other activities of a kind that expose participants to danger or may require search and rescue services.

• A child can leave the residence of one joint caregiver to visit or stay at the residence of another joint care-giver (and visit or stay at that residence) if there is a shared bubble arrangement.

• A person can leave their residence to visit or stay at another residence (and visit or stay at that residence) under a shared bubble arrangement if - one person lives alone in one, or both, of those residences; or everyone in one of those residences is a vulnerable person.

I've been on about this amongst friends Henry, the Police and Health Officers don't have the power they are assuming. That stuff article is one of a series that finally gets most of the issue.

Everyone should familiarise themselves with firstly the Bilil of Rights Act, section 22 Liberty of the Person. Then read the Health Act 1956, which seems a pretty soundly written Act, and the Civil Defense Emergency Act 2002, which is a bit micky mouse and has been tacked on to this current situation for the ability to declare a state of emergency. Management is otherwise under the Health Act.

I've been thinking of writing an article on the topic.

Yes, you should pen to paper.
To mine this is band aid, and a core fix is needed because when you think how things are stepped out of alert four and beyond.
You know checking people in, like yellow fever use to be documented.

The Maga lovefest is strong in this thread.
Trump will be gone before the election,the GOP will do what is necessary to have a chance in 2024,if not they face political oblivion.

11
up

Money. It perverts the course of all things. Experts? If the qualifications are the key, then how come our economy is so under threat? Shouldn't the financial experts be able to deal with this? Or is it perhaps that our finest and brightest were caught in the bright lights of big salaries, and cushy life styles. I remember the bright ones at school, back in the 80's, going off to do "food technology". What with live aid and feed the world, led by Bob geldof etc, I thought that's nice, those people want to help solve world hunger and poverty. How naive was I? They were eyeing up big salaries with Monsanto and the like, developing foods that had no seeds, so the farmers would always have to buy their seed.
The housing bubble in NZ was a sham from the start, all part of "wealth illusion". House gone up in value? Why not borrow against the increase in equity, buy a new very safe car? The part of our health system working overtime? The pharmaceutical companies, drug pushers in suits. Don't worry, the money is good, and look what they're driving, they must be respectable, right?
How many kiwis live 1/4 to 1/4, month to month, or week to week?
All with nice houses, nice cars, nice clothes and the latest gadgets.
What about the quiet economy? Never heard of it? These are the people that fell below the poverty line long ago. Do i mean the homeless? No, i mean the huge number of people that live in a different nz to the dinner party, foody, wine swilling crew that still believe that nz is simply the best.
The quiet economy is made up of those people that created a network of their own, they have roofs over their heads, they have food on the table, they are warm in winter. They owe nobody anything, they don't get weekly, monthly or even annual bills. What's happening with the economy, they dont know about, or care about, because that economy stopped caring about them, a long time ago. They learnt how to think for themselves, do for themselves. Try to see them, and you wont, try to hear about them, not a peep.
Are our govt institutions for us, to embolden us, help us, turn us into strong independent thinkers? Or is it that these places rob us of our ability to have confidence in our own ability to learn, to question, to be resourceful?
The housing problem was always a have. There is so much land in nz, and the rma was always a joke, houses just don't cost that much to build. Building permits, council certificates, etc etc, these are revenue streams, and the proof of it is in leaky house syndrome. Not one council has ever been held accountable for issuing certificates that shouldn't have been issued.
The housing stock is some of the worst in the world, damp, cold and drafty. That is not a surprise to most people, yet this continued belief in the ever rising price of a house IS beyond comprehension.
If NZers are so innovative, so fantastically resourceful, then why on earth are we all waiting for the lockdown to end, so we can get back to work? If there is a general acceptance that it will never really go back to normal, or that there will be a new normal, then why not get to work on that now? It was New Zealanders that made nz a great place to live, not a govt. Remember that. Enjoy your Sunday.

The quiet economy folk would still have some bills wouldn't they? Water, power, insurance, car registration and so on. These quiet people sound a lot like The Borrowers.

New Zealanders have largely transformed into effete global citizens and are no longer the hardy self sufficient colonialists of years gone by.

Anyway I do enjoy your comments.

Cheers.

Check this exact prediction, published from 2015:
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1507/S00101/the-fire-economy-new-zeala...

Most of the blind bull market snake oil merchant on this web site, always announced 'Landlords' providing 'essential service' during lock-down, but funny things; What has been announced worldwide for that essential services are mostly their renters; Landlords hardly dies as result of Covid-19, they renters are: rubbish collectors, doctors, nurses, police, ambulance crew, super market staff, fire, security/safety crew.

Please, do read again the above link. And ponder how intelligent are we? as NZers being blind fold ushered into this Capitalism greed, socialise their hidden agenda in the name of Neo-Liberalism, blinded by 'phantom numbers of wealth' presented in the FIRE economy (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate) economy. Now, we're into lock-down following the advise of couple 'professors' - How many of us on this web site? willing to venture at least reading the book by another of our own economic 'professor' - thought so. Illiterate? naa, Dumb? may be.. Greed/Selfish? now, we're talking.

Keen Observer, you live up to your name. Great link. I bet the book is ideal lockdown reading.
I agree with you, we have all been led up the garden path. When 30% of an economies GDP comes from the financial services sector, then there is something seriously wrong.

The Prime Minister came across well in today's briefing. At one stage I thought she must have been reading the comments here and was giving some of us a good telling off. I'm feeling a bit more confident about things. Let's stick to the rules people and make this work.

Are you sure, super stressed, the Health Minister bit v the reporter, slurred words at the end.

Michael Reddell notes here, using data from the OECD, that GDP is likely to fall by 60% for each week of lockdown.

On the numbers in the chart, the direct effects alone crunch GDP by about 25 per cent for the median country shown. Indirect effects, including confidence effects, credit availability effects, uncertainty effects, income effects and so on will probably amplify these numbers greatly. I struggle to see how a fairly extensive lockdown will not reduce GDP while it is in place by up to perhaps 60 per cent

And for those with time on their hands, here's an interview with Peter Hitchens by Brendan O'Neill. It's cheerfully titled 'No-one gets out of here alive'....

The real question is, is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period, destroying businesses that honest and hardworking people have taken years to build up, saddling future generations with debt, depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable, and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all?

This lines also channels Matthew Hooton in the Hurruld (save the page as html, and remove the style="display:none;" text chunks):

Given where we are on the human trajectory, Waymad, your comments are sad to see from one with enough upstairs.

PDK i thought you would support this view as there are too many people on the planet?

Also the Prime Minister today said history shows that the best economic outcomes are achieved by societies that fight to eradicate viruses rather than just letting them run their course with high fatality rates. We can return to normal quicker by not following Hitchens.

You can't 'return to normal'. That 'normal' was a very recent, very temporary aberration. 70 years (or 200 depending on your definition) is all the time your 'normal' existed. A mere blip.

y, d and b - yes, we need to reduce population. Yes, the virus may temporarily help, but not had enough or long enough to make a difference; that needs us doing it, or a collapse, or a disease with a harder strike-count. I was mourning an entirely capable intellect still, at this late stage in the affairs of humankind, advocating economic continunce.

Yip, 'economic/bottom $' - socialised the losses gather the mass, eradicate? not yet at this stage..'we' try to help just to bring the apex in manageable order. This is economic 101 fundamental web site, the same like greed capitalism twisted in the name of Neo-Liberal? suddenly 'WE' appear to do this future bail out.. stated by all those already procured their RE; JA, Ministers, Oppositions, Boutique economist etc. - Now, good on them. The same like any disasters, we need to give a hands.. questions is for how long? what magnitude those 'silent sub-conscious' at play? - Hell, I even dictated clear messages on this web site as what govt./RBNZ need to do next, stated in heartfelt, but it's the truth. 'Normal' is relative view, following/not following is also relative view, usually tied up to self interest/sub-conscious/preservation mode. For some young single rubbish collectors with minimum wage? or some of young/senior single good wage pathologist, staring at med student loan, countless hours peeling up eyes to ID those pathogens (bacteria, fungi, virus) with other selfless financial obligations? - nothing change year in/out, despite changing jobs, locations, salary etc. So, may be? following something different for a .. change? nothing will change when 'constant' at play, but put 'variable' a bit to see a bit of change - Now, I know you just have to be patient to 'defer' that holiday/change for now. That 'deferral' is variable enough, the determinant of it? Time.