Ardern's popularity falls in poll, as a quarter of respondents can't pick a preferred PM

Support for both Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins falls in 1 News Colmar Brunton poll, as 27% of respondents can't pick a preferred PM; Labour comfortably the favourite party

15th Mar 21, 6:42pm by Jenée Tibshraeny

Some of the sheen is coming off Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, but both her and the Labour Party continue to wallop National in the opinion polls.

According to the latest 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll, conducted between March 9 and 13, support for Labour is at 49%.

This is down four percentage points from the previous poll done in December. However, Labour would still be able to govern alone, securing 62 seats in Parliament.

Support for National is at 27% - up two percentage points. The Green Party is at 9% - up one point, and ACT is stable at 8%.

Movements in the preferred prime minister ranks were more major, with Ardern falling 15 points to 43% and National leader Judith Collins dropping four points to 8%.

Interestingly, more than a quarter (27%) of respondents didn’t know who their preferred prime minister was. This is more than double the portion of “don’t knows” from the last poll, but is on par where things were at a year ago. In late 2019, the "don't knows" reached 34%.

Here’s a summary of the results:

Preferred party:

Labour: 49% (down 4 points)
National: 27% (up 2 points)
Greens: 9% (up 1 point)
ACT: 8% (no change)
NZ First: 2% (no change)
Maori Party: 2% (no change)
New Conservatives: 1% (no change)
TOP: 1% (up 0.7 points)
Don’t know: 5%
Refused: 4%

Preferred prime minister:

Jacinda Ardern: 43% (down 15 points)
Judith Collins: 8% (down 4 points)
David Seymour: 4% (no change)
Christopher Luxon: 2% (no change)
Simon Bridges: 1% (up 1 point)
John Key: 1% (no change)
Don’t know: 27% (up 14 points)
Refused: 6% (up 4 points)

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58 Comments

by Uncle Bulgaria | 15th Mar 21, 7:24pm 1615789491

Some of that is possibly down to a change in methodology but you'd have to say there is a feel that the stardust is wearing thin. Mind you - who would you rather?

by Mountie | 15th Mar 21, 7:29pm 1615789788

Star dust is long gone. I'm firmly in the don't know camp. No one on that list appeals.

by Pragmatist | 16th Mar 21, 8:06am 1615835207

Thats the problem we have now.. the least smelly shirt is still pretty ripe..

by morphyoss | 16th Mar 21, 10:13am 1615842831

This Poll still show Labour with a majority of seats. I think this is wishful thinking. If an election was held today based on these numbers, they would still hold the majority of seats, which no other government has done under MMP. Hardly riveting stuff.

New Zealand seems happy to carry on with what they decided on election night thus far.

by richard1965 | 15th Mar 21, 7:31pm 1615789901

Cannot compare with Judith or anyone but yes as mentioned eadlier alsi by many in comments earlier Jacinda Arden has started her diwnward journey and just before election will resign.

NZ Herald: 1News/Colmar Brunton poll: Support for Jacinda Ardern slips since historic election win.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/1newscolmar-brunton-poll-support-for-jaci…

by Carlos67 | 15th Mar 21, 7:33pm 1615789981

That is the big take away from the poll, the huge percentage who cannot decide who to pick so yes its got that bad. There is now a massive void in terms of leadership in this country, nobody really wants any of the current crop.

by EdwardD | 15th Mar 21, 8:22pm 1615792945

I understand it as I wouldn't vote Labour again and National are on holiday. What choice is there?

by Foxglove. | 15th Mar 21, 9:18pm 1615796334

This is a dilemma that has been forming for the public of New Zealand, like a cold front southerly, for quite some time. Our politicians mostly are not there for their constituents, they are there for themselves, their personal ambitions and self interest. It is both dreadful and alarming especially when you consider that the bureaucrats, thus unleashed, have been able to get the bit between their teeth, and have duly run away with the spoon. Parliament in terms of talent, of effective lawmakers, administrators and representatives of the people, is simply a blank canvas. The selection of candidates by both of the main parties as far as acumen, credibility and integrity has been abysmal. Of the minor parties, well who knows. This poll reflects just how disenchanting the scenario in government is to the people, it is casting a light on all of it, bleak as it remains. God Defend New Zealand, not much in Wellington is up to it. To my mind it sucks, it really sucks, the whole damn shooting box.

by Ezy | 16th Mar 21, 10:14am 1615842871

Right on the money Foxglove. There's also a danger in this sort of malaise and talent vacuum, of extreme parties seizing the narrative and rising to the surface. It's been happening already across various western countries for the last decade where extreme right and left wing parties campaigning on radical change are getting more momentum. The politicians (and MSM) are getting further away from the pulse of the nation. The rest of us are too self-absorbed and apathetic to do anything about it.

by Chris-M | 16th Mar 21, 10:58am 1615845503

One of the real dangers of this depressing vacuum is that it that it could give rise to a Trump like character. Pretty much the same circumstances in the USA that bought him to power.

by alittle | 15th Mar 21, 7:44pm 1615790698

This fall is just the Begining of the End but luckily for her elections are still 2.5 years ahead.

She had massive mandate but got carried away and lost the plot. One of the major ( may be the only) promise was to solve the housing crisis but what she did was opposite and now too when house prices are rising by 10% a month - still is silent.

Can anyone deny that the reason for her win was housing crisis which national termed as a good crisis to have therby rubbing salt to wound of the average Kiwi and FHB were struggling for their dream to have a house BUT WHAT JACINDA HAS DONE IS EVEN TAKEN AWAY THE DREAM OF OWNING A HOME - Taking away hope is the BIGGEST crime which Jacinda Arden has commited.

by Lanthanide | 15th Mar 21, 7:54pm 1615791248

I didn't know Jacinda was single-handedly jacking the prices of houses up.

by Noncents | 15th Mar 21, 8:09pm 1615792190

Well it turns out it wasn't John Key? and everyone seemed to blame him - including Jacinda.

by alittle | 15th Mar 21, 8:30pm 1615793428

May be you are correct. It us the power that corrupts but in this John Key was better as he never lied and did not believe that their is a housing crisis but everyones once upon a time faviurite PM did and was shouting from rooftops and every platfirm abiut housing crisis as if she is a messiah for FHB and once in power she took the Pyramid Ponzi to a level hard to imagine theryby screwing the dreams of FHB.

by Chris-M | 16th Mar 21, 11:02am 1615845727

Never Lied!!!!! He rarely told the truth. But he was very good at it.

https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/06/04/435-lies-by-john-key/

by JimboJones | 16th Mar 21, 10:36am 1615844177

Not saying that Labour are doing a good job, but there are so many major changes needed that it can't be done in 3 years. Labour are quite likely to overhaul the RMA for example, but that takes time.
Key/National had 9 years, that should have been sufficient time to sort everything out completely, they have no excuses.

by Dave Moderato | 16th Mar 21, 2:47pm 1615859248

Housing went up under both Clark and Key. But nothing like now.

by alittle | 15th Mar 21, 8:26pm 1615793184

Not single handedly but being captajn of the ship is responsible as where is she, now when house price are going up $100000 a nmonth - why is she silent.... What is she foing to contain the speeclative demand......Cherry on the cake, she mention g that come what may will never allow the house prices to fall ( even when have grown 30% to 50% in just few months) so hernot taking action is also for support of speculators.

by Brock Landers | 15th Mar 21, 8:47pm 1615794467

Not single handedly, the fat controller is helping her.

by npc | 16th Mar 21, 7:53am 1615834411

She's grossly incompetent. Always was. Covid saved her bacon.

The government could be freeing up land, easing the building code, reducing tax, even targeting speculators. But it's not. It's quietly admitting that people like a little bump in house prices, even if it is unsustainable.

She's a rabbit in headlights.

by Brock Landers | 16th Mar 21, 10:00am 1615842052

"little bump"

by JimboJones | 16th Mar 21, 10:38am 1615844310

I think you are getting a bit ahead of yourself. Are you sure they are not going to announce any changes this year? The fact that it is taking so long might be because they are major changes and need a decent level of due diligence first. The last thing we need is knee jerk.

by morphyoss | 16th Mar 21, 10:20am 1615843236

Wow capitals you must be really angry - its just a shame that you probably were missing in action when this problem was going on over the last 20 years. Where was the rage then?

In reality, these numbers havent really changed since election night. Labour still sit on a majority. The public it seems are very happy with the status quo. I doubt many in Labour would be worried, especially when National's seemingly only policy is to oppose whatever the government is doing. Yawn.

by Nzdan | 15th Mar 21, 7:52pm 1615791150

"Once things start getting under 35 per cent people start saying 'can we win?' And I know I am putting a mark up there which at some stage in the future, if I am successful this time, that people will say 'well, you set that mark.

"Yep, let me set that mark."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/judith-collins-sets-her-own-sacking-point…

by Nzdan | 15th Mar 21, 8:06pm 1615791991

☺☻

by alittle | 15th Mar 21, 8:33pm 1615793584

Judith or anyone in opposistion, just have to hang in their as Jacinda is on mission of self goal and by election time will be over.

Wait and Watch.

by morphyoss | 16th Mar 21, 10:29am 1615843757

Haha - i love this. This is essentially admitting - yeah we have a terrible leader and National have no policies of their own that resonate with the public. You have essentially admitted that Nationals only path to victory is relying on Labour to mess something major up. It speaks volumes with what is wrong with National if this is their only plan. NZ Needs a strong opposition and sadly it feels like they have given up.

How's the plan going so far? first Poll of the year shows Labour holding their historic majority. So not well.

But yeah keeping dreaming the dream i suppose. I look forward to you making the same comment in March 2024.

by Advisor | 16th Mar 21, 10:31am 1615843900

Seems to be the story of Collin's life.
She hung on while more popular NZ National partymen (Key, English, Joyce, Bennett, Bridges, Muller) retired or failed as the party's top brass and took hold of leadership when there were no viable alternatives left.

She could very well become NZ's accidental PM come next election. Don't know if that'll be better than a weak Labour-Green-Maori coalition government.

by morphyoss | 16th Mar 21, 10:23am 1615843439

That only applies to the leaders she was trying to stab in the back. Now those MP's (well the ones who survived her terrible election performance) are now even allowed to get a copy of the report into what went wrong.

So yeah - #StrongTeam

by stuart786786 | 15th Mar 21, 8:43pm 1615794214

Treasury warned them about the way they were doing wage subsidy but went ahead besides other warnings from Treasury and now

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/03/treasury-warned-governm…

Jacinda Arden and her team does not listen to advise but when they do not want to act or avoid taking decession come up with the excuse that we are waiting for advise.

Slowly and steadily getting exposed.

by dago | 16th Mar 21, 9:29am 1615840157

I know! "we're waiting on advice" as if the advice means anything to them. This is why I refuse to vote for either big party since last election. People have been brainsucked to believe they most decide which pack of clowns they want running their lives, who just lie and fritter tax payer money, while allowing money to become absolutely suffocated by asset bubbles. Wish people would stop voting in these swamp monsters

by Zack Brando | 15th Mar 21, 9:04pm 1615795479

49% is phenomenal, plus the 27%. That's 76% for Natbour.

by Tom Valen | 15th Mar 21, 9:23pm 1615796613

We need a new political movement to fight the backers of the Ponzi.

by Chris-M | 16th Mar 21, 11:05am 1615845913

Yes. The New Zealand Affordable Housing Party

by custard | 15th Mar 21, 9:28pm 1615796901

I’m so very much over Jacinda’s lies, mistruths and never ending moronic, treat me like a preschooler, spin.

Too many policy failures (not that there was much policy to begin with), while the indifference, the bumbling, stumbling failures over issues such as housing is simply beyond appalling – what on earth are they thinking (or not thinking) – the incompetency, just so very unfathomable really.

I can’t begin to imagine what god awful mess they’ll make with immigration once again given the chance.

Again, they should thank their lucky stars for Covid – otherwise they’d be well and truly in the political waste bin – where based on current performance, they belong.

by SimonRo | 16th Mar 21, 12:05pm 1615849508

Oh, god, immigration...
2022 - Borders reopen to rejuvenate our flagging economy that doesn't know what to do with the housing crisis
early 2023 - Labour announce a working group to propose sustainable non-discriminatory immigration policies
august 2023 - Labour announce a flagship policy to reform immigration and boost funding for immigration nz by $X million
late 2024 - Re-elected, new Labour leader blames dismal birth rate of NZ citizens for not yet announcing any change in immigration rates.

by AJ123 | 15th Mar 21, 9:39pm 1615797564

Jacinda is single handedly a culprit of burning new generation kiwi dream after promising and deceiving.

Who should we blame, no one get that fat paycheck with power, which she possess to act and now she is making videos and posting on facebook (utter shame). Now what happen in last 6 months (38% rise) cannot be undone at any cost.

See this is what happen when a orator without experience run the country. What she can give to country definitely not a act of leadership but just empty words.

by blobbles | 15th Mar 21, 9:40pm 1615797643

Jacinda will be wishing, hoping, dreaming for a new crisis just before the election...

If you are completely ineffectual, betray your base and then spout nonsense backed by no policy, how could she expect anything less. Maybe, just maybe, the electorate is seeing through the National/Labour revolving door of mud slinging ineptitude, lacking vision, policy and execution.

by custard | 15th Mar 21, 10:10pm 1615799459

https://www.waikato.ac.nz/study/success-stories/jacinda-ardern

“Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern completed a Bachelor of Communication Studies in Public Relations and Political Science at Waikato Management School from 1999 to 2001.”

Well Jacinda – as it turns out – that would appear to be Jack-useless in actually addressing the hard school issues of the real world.

Keep up with the lies, half-truths and spin – after all, why not – you graduated in it.

by Zack Brando | 16th Mar 21, 12:08am 1615806535

I'm not sure why people think PM Ardern is authentic or masterful in interviews.

While other people speak she says, 'mmm mmmm yeah mmmm mmmm" while nodding her head, waiting for her opportunity to waffle. Then she says, "I think..", "Great question.." or "I understand..". It's always the same forced showing.

Sometimes she is surprising knowledgeable but usually it's just stating the obvious or woke talking-points/virtue-signaling. Obviously she has the waffle down - she's practicing it every day..

It's pretty simple to point out when she's wrong, omitting or lying. The media simply just don't and like her ministers she simply refuses challenging interviews. The fact members-of-parliament rate her communication skills so highly tells me many MP's are in the wrong line-of-work.

She's good, but she ain't that good.

by Lanthanide | 16th Mar 21, 8:09am 1615835377

It's pretty simple to point out when she's wrong, omitting or lying. The media simply just don't

They treated Key just the same. Media in this country is useless.

by Zack Brando | 16th Mar 21, 11:31am 1615847503

Thank God for Jenee.

by Roger the dodger | 15th Mar 21, 10:14pm 1615799694

I think if most people were asked what they would do if they were in power, the answer wouldn't match what we are seeing right now.

by Lanthanide | 16th Mar 21, 8:11am 1615835460

If they:
1. Were in power
2. Listening to advice of their ministries
3. Wanted to win the next election

Then results may not be very different from now.

by Spectators | 16th Mar 21, 9:53am 1615841595

3. Wanting to win the next election...that is the problem isn't it. When winning votes acts against what's best for the country successive governments have shown that winning vote policies trump greater good policies.

by PandaMonium | 15th Mar 21, 10:39pm 1615801149

It's heading in the right direction for our Dear Leader though. The exact opposite to house prices, how bizarre.

by Dale Smith | 15th Mar 21, 10:51pm 1615801911

I'm going to form a DKR (Don't know - refused) party At this rate, in the next election, I will be able to govern alone.

by Squishy | 16th Mar 21, 5:00am 1615824004

I'm astonished that voters can find any discernible difference between Labour and National. To me it looks like a land grab within the Overton window.

by b21 | 16th Mar 21, 8:28am 1615836528

Surely Labour must have their own internal polls, it would be interesting how large support remains among renters and non home owners and how many of those already lost in favour of other parties.

by Spectators | 16th Mar 21, 10:38am 1615844302

Well I'm a homeowner and they lost me. Labours inaction on housing is the reason. Particularly disappointed in JA and GR. They had the biggest opportunity in a very long time for a Natbour govt to do something meaningful about the biggest plight on NZ society and they utterly blew it. They had the TWG report and COVID as ready made excuses to get policy through that in normal times is considered political suicide but instead they showed the same lack of spine as previous governments. They went against their voters. I'm under no illusion that National would be any better. So it's TOP all the way next election. A party willing to do what's necessary.

by morphyoss | 16th Mar 21, 10:42am 1615844562

Yeah i do hope that TOP can find an audience next time. They need to find a seat they can run in that maybe has the most FHB's or something. That will get them in the door then any additional party vote will be a bonus.

TOP have some sound policy, i just couldnt bring myself to consider them knowing it would almost certainly be a wasted vote.

by dago | 16th Mar 21, 12:06pm 1615849560

TOP is not a wasted vote. Only a vote for a big clown party is a waste

by Jaf | 16th Mar 21, 9:29am 1615840190

PM's rating down 15 %. Waffles, spins, sweet nothings have limited traction. Can sweet talk some people sometimes. But, not all the people all the time. And the undecided 14 %. Almost similar numbers. Perhaps its the same disillusioned segment that deserted star dust who are are now undecided on their next choice. They know politicians can promise one thing to get elected. But, once they are in power then dementia coupled with Alzeimer's sets in.

by JimboJones | 16th Mar 21, 10:49am 1615844950

So all the over the top Jacinda / Labour hate is not showing up much in the polls yet... Maybe the right wing PR machines need to make up some new nicknames for their opponents, not sure they are getting enough traction yet.

by AJ123 | 16th Mar 21, 11:05am 1615845946

I don't know who are those 43%, who still think JA is right candidate, must be property investors. Definitely labour is on the path of making this country a BANANA REPUBLIC.
By selling the country to property investors, shame on them for being so NUMB and not taking any action.

by 1986 | 16th Mar 21, 12:37pm 1615851458

Yeah it’s disgusting. It all hinges on whether the GR announcement will be big or bugger all

by AJ123 | 16th Mar 21, 5:25pm 1615868702

Amazing to see, their are people like you who have false hope....

by 1986 | 16th Mar 21, 12:37pm 1615851459

Yeah it’s disgusting. It all hinges on whether the GR announcement will be big or bugger all