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Surge in US credit; Record US trade deficit; Fed holds steady line; air cargo rebounds; China foreign reserves slip; UST 10yr at 1.65%; oil steady, gold lower; NZ$1 = 70.2 USc; TWI-5 = 72.6

Surge in US credit; Record US trade deficit; Fed holds steady line; air cargo rebounds; China foreign reserves slip; UST 10yr at 1.65%; oil steady, gold lower; NZ$1 = 70.2 USc; TWI-5 = 72.6

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news there has been a very large rise in consumer credit growth in the US in February as optimism gathered steam.

Consumer credit rose a rather remarkable +7.9% year-on-year, or up +US$27 bln from January, the largest rise ever. There was a good rise in credit card (revolving) balances, but the really big increase was for personal loans, especially car loans.

The US Federal Reserve has released minutes from its last meeting. And the Fed officials say it will be "some time" before conditions would be met for scaling back their US$120 billion a month asset-purchase campaign.

They said it would likely be some time until substantial further progress toward the Fed's maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be realised.

They had previously forecast they would keep the benchmark lending rate near zero until at least 2023. That was despite sharply upgrading their forecasts for growth this year amid rising confidence and a fresh round of fiscal stimulus.

Meanwhile, the much faster pick up in US economic activity after the effects of the Covid pandemic have seen the US trade deficit jump 4.8% to a record $71.1 billion in February. The deficit was higher than market forecasts of a $70.5 billion deficit. The goods trade gap was also the highest on record.

Main driver of the deficit was trade with China, the the deficit there increasing $3.1 billion to $30.3 billion in February. Exports decreased $4.5 billion to $10.4 billion and imports decreased $1.5 billion to $40.6 billion.

Consumer goods exports fell as did those of motor vehicles, parts and engines. There were also fewer food exports. The pandemic remained a drag on services exports, especially travel.

Elsewhere in the US, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon in his influential annual letter to shareholders has said the US economy will now likely boom. He says this will be based on a a combination of excess savings, deficit spending, a potential infrastructure bill, vaccinations and “euphoria around the end of the pandemic.” He believes the boom “could easily run into 2023.” That could justify high equity valuations, but not the price of US. debt, given the “huge supply” soon to hit the market.

And he also says there is a chance that a rise in inflation would be “more than temporary,”  which would force the US Fed to raise interest rates aggressively. Dimon hopes though for the so-called Goldilocks scenario. That would see fast growth, gently increasing inflation and a measured rise in interest rates.

In Canada merchandise exports decreased by 2.7%, in February while imports fell 2.4%. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the world narrowed from C$1.2 billion in January to $1.0 billion in February. This was the first time since late 2016 that the trade balance was in a surplus position for two consecutive months.

In international news, although the airline passenger travel recovery seems a very long way off, the aircargo rebound has been very strong in February 2021. Compared with the robust conditions in February 2019, this year they were a rather remarkable +9.6% higher, with the Asia/Pacific region up almost +11% on that same basis. (Of course, the year-on-year gains are highly distorted.)

The Chinese reported another slip in their foreign exchange reserves in March compared with February. It wasn't large, but it was slightly more than analysts were expecting. They are down to under US$3.2 tln now. But recall, they were US$3.06 tln in March 2020, so they are now +3.6% higher now.

Although they have been stable for weeks now, yesterday there was a notable slip in the iron ore price, with it falling an unusual -1.5% on the day. Coking coal prices fell more than -1% on the day as well.

China saw a total of 9.66 million newly registered motor vehicles in the first quarter of this year, a record high for the same period in any year. This brought the total number of motor vehicles in China to 378 million by the end of March, including 287 million cars.

And staying in China, reports that the energy consumption and carbon emissions from Bitcoin mining will undercut China’s climate efforts without more stringent regulations and policy changes, according to a new study from academics in China, the US and UK.

If things carry on as they are China’s energy consumption from Bitcoin mining in 2024 will exceed the total energy consumption of countries like Italy and Saudi Arabia, the study said. And the carbon emissions will top the annual greenhouse gas emissions of countries including the Netherlands, Spain and the Czech Republic.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is flat in early afternoon trade. European markets were down an average of -0.2% overnight, but London was the outlier again, rising another strong +0.9%. Yesterday, the Shanghai market ended down -0.1%, Hong Kong was down -0.9% and giving up part of the prior day's large gain, while the very large Tokyo market closed up a minor +0.1%. The ASX200 rose +0.6% yesterday, and the NZX50 Capital Index rose +0.7%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising, now 132,658,000 have been infected at some point, up +634,000 in one day, mostly in Brazil (+83,000), Turkey (+50,000) and India (+105,000). Global deaths reported now exceed 2,878,000 and +13,000 in one day. Vaccinations in the world are still rising fast, now up to 694 mln (+15 mln) and in the US half of their population (167.1 mln have had al least one dose and up +1.3 mln in one day) have now had this protection as they achieve a very fast rollout. The number of active cases there fell to 6,868,000 and down only -2,000 overnight as some new hotspots emerge with problematic variants.

The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 1.65%. The US 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at 150 bps. Their 1-5 curve is flatter at +80 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is unchanged at +164 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is down by -3 bps at 1.68%. The China Govt 10 year yield is firmish at 3.24%. But the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is down by -4 bps at 1.76%.

The price of gold starts today down -US$3 from this time yesterday at US$1740/oz.

Oil prices are little-changed from this time yesterday at just under US$59.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just under US$63/bbl. But it has been quite volatile in between.

The Kiwi dollar opens today marginally softer at just on 70.2 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer at 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are weaker at 59.1 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 opens today a little lower at 72.6.

The bitcoin price will start today at US$56,181 and down another -3.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.6%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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83 Comments

20
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meanwhile back in NZ

Covid-19: Govt sets up scientist group to advise on vaccine rollout, border changes

like WTF -- if it felt it needed this -- why was it not done 6 or 9 months ago - too hard to predict we might want to vaccinate people - or shudder shudder open our borders

You mean - they are asking real experts, not the armchair variety that inhabit this place?

24
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You totally miss his point.

10
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And it is a good point and unfortunately par for the course. We are on track to being the slowest developed country in the world to vaccinate our people. And not having to deal with Covid in the community and being a small country have afforded us big advantages over other countries. I stopped looking at our vaccination progress because it made such depressing reading.
I would say a good performance (based on other countries performance) would have been having administering between 500K and a million doses to date and being on target to finish in June or July. Many countries are vaccinating around 1% of their population every day. Why can't we?

Karl I think behind the scenes they are just getting on with it - and numbers will quickly ramp up from this month (subject to available doses of vaccine).
Cheer up and don't get depressed ..its sunny outside and no community Covid!

Frazz, Cindy's freezers are full of vaccine, In fact I wouldn't be surprised if we run out of storage space. Saw a report yesterday of almost 400,000 sitting waiting. How are numbers going to quickly ramp up? I haven't seen any plan for this have you?
Hipkins says we will give 30,000 shots a day. I am sceptical as we have only done 90,000 in around 60 days.

Sitting on them, much like we sit on houses, keeping an eye on the spot price for speculative gains.

How long before past use by date? Am told 30 days

Are you really that surprised ? If Labour was running a Pub you wouldn't be able to get a glass of beer.

Well then you might be able to get that in a bordello, but nothing much else if they were running that too.

Who is Cindy? Front page of the NZ herald is a plan..

Front page of Stuff is a failed plan.

Frankly, I can't understand why the Govt. didn't initiate a vaccination plan the minute they ordered the vaccines. To have to put a committee together in order to work this out now shows that once again they are not being proactive.

Frazz.." Getting on with it".? A month ago someone suggested we give them a month to ramp things up. No improvement and I just can't see them getting it together but hopefully I am proven wrong. I think I would like you as a boss but if you were running my (imaginary) business for me I get the distinct impression you may cause me a serious case of depression.

Oh well..best you go back to bed then Karl - pull the covers over your head and a couple of hail Marys

Frazz,,with regard to the Covid response and the whole direction of the country a couple of hail Mary's is unfortunately about all I can do. (maybe Jacinda and Carlos Spencer are related?). But I did not put all that hard work in, being a former property infestor and retiring very young just to spend my time sleeping all day.

Property InFestor - yup hard work?

frazz..as I have said before NZ needs to strive to ensure the system does not create any more me. Taking more fish than you can eat from a marine reserve while others are starving should not be something that our society tolerates.

While its true that we are slow, there is more to it that that.

Right now, vaccines are in hot demand, and priced accordingly. So it's a classic case of supply and demand - how desperate is NZ for the vaccine compared to countries with high daily case numbers and death tolls (hint: not very). And how much money do we - a relatively poor country by OECD standards, with low wages and tax rates - have to spend on getting more vaccines, when compared to other OCED nations (hint: not much).

We have less to spend, and less need to spend it. So why would it be any surprise that we're behind other nations when it comes to vaccination rates - it's just the market in action.

We also have a pretty distributed population and a large piece of land to manage vaccinations across compared to say, Singapore, where everyone is within a pretty short distance of hospitals or clinics and freezers that can keep vaccinations cold enough. Being realistic that none or our politicians would ever be directly involved in the rollout, I'd assume our health authorities are grappling with significant logistics challenges.

And true, we want low taxes on us but high value services for us. So our health authorities are approaching these logistic issues with a historical deficit.

youve been listening to too much Year of the Vaccine rubbish spilling from big brother tv
the vacine aint going to solve anything

You're not supposed to know that until later

I don't think so, looking at the slew of responses since this morning!

12
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The same real experts have been available from day one. Hells bells it was also known from day one that if NZ was to rebuild asap normal contact with the world that vaccines would be the vital component. Structured planning for its distribution and application should have and could have commenced as soon as the actual vaccine was chosen. This again demonstrates a disturbing lack of efficiency by our Ministry of Health and I believe a lack of confidence by the government that it will be able to cope with an outbreak arising after the Australian travel increases that risk, hence trying to delay that as long as possible. Of course if the vaccines had been out and about in much greater volume that risk would have been mitigated.

10
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Its their (the ardern admin) diabolical scheme to stall and vacillate.

11
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Listened to a woman explain why its taken so long on RNZ this morning. I'm sure it made sense to her, she was really upbeat about wonderful it all was to take more time, but it sounded like complete gibberish to me. As I noted yesterday it seems to me the various ministries seem to require micromanaging by their ministers to actually see anything implemented, really slow moving.

I heard the same interview. She was woeful and had evidently been schooled. The one Gem was that the Pfizer vaccine must be done in large centres and they were still gearing up. For all her waffle she did nothing to rebut the questions focusing on a slow program.

I heard the same interview. She was woeful and had evidently been schooled. The one Gem was that the Pfizer vaccine must be done in large centres and they were still gearing up. For all her waffle she did nothing to rebut the questions focusing on a slow program.

Foxglove -"The same real experts have been available from day one" - what you mean yourself?

You totally miss the point.

My colleague is getting their 2nd jab today - done and dusted. Reason their flatmate is a Air NZ crew member, that some real data from on the ground for your analysis Foxy.

here is some more --- of the 250 staff i have all of whom were returned on teh same spreadsheet to the MOH as requested three weeks ago -- at least 50 have not been registered that we know of -- many have and have already been and had their first vaccine - or booked an appointment - but for some unexplainable reason -- the MOH has failed to register over 50 people from that spreadsheet.
When i called the helpline today - 0800 282926 for peoples reference -- they said not to worry its happening to lots of people - i will register you now!

Its a shit show -- complete disaster -- which is why we are 90K instead of the MOH's 286K target - and why we have 400,000 vaccines in stock doing Sweet Fanny Adams -- instead of protecting 200 to 400 thousand people! Given we have know that we would need to roll out a vaccination for almost a year now -- commissioning an expert group in April is not a success -- in fact its only being done to give Jacinda plausible deniability about the decision to open up when we start to see significant outbreaks later this year killing many who chose not to get vaccinated-

12
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frazz..OK you forced me to depress myself and do another check. New Zealand, 46 days, 90 000.

Australia, 44 days, 855 000
Malaysia, 42 days, 840 000
Hong Kong, 40 days, 615 000
Dominican Republic, 50 days, 1 001 000
South Korea, 40 days, 1 072 000
Bhutan. 11 days, 470 000
Columbia, 49 days, 2 480 000

WOW. What a complete shit show. If we continue on this trajectory within 2 or 3 months the rest of the developed world will have left us behind.

Time to pack your bags then Karl so you can get out of that funk - Columbia looking good?
Details of roll out - timeline looks fine to me?

Group 2: March to May
Group 2 includes 480,000 frontline workers and people living in high-risk settings. Vaccinations will start with the 57,000 healthcare workers on community frontlines, and then progress to other healthcare workers. This group also includes older Māori and Pacific people cared for by whānau, their carers and the people they live with. Anyone who lives in the Counties Manukau DHB area who is 65 and older or who has an underlying health condition is also in Group 2.

Group 3: Starts May
The third group consists of approximately 1.7 million higher-risk people, including those aged 65+, people with relevant underlying health conditions and disabled people. It also includes adults in custodial settings.

Group 4: Starts July
The remainder of the general population aged 16 and over form Group 4.

You totally miss his point.

If the govt stuffs around the vaccines will be past their use by date and have to be binned. The vaccines have limited life

Frazz...yes thanks but I was already aware of the timelines. I do not feel it was unreasonable to expect them to have finished by July rather than only be starting the general population in July so, to me, the timeline is completely unacceptable and baffling in its length.
For me personally Covid has been great. It has forced me to reside in NZ and spend time with my family and enjoy the quiet life. But that is not the point. It is not about me. It is about the complete nonchalance of the Govt in trying to administer the vaccines in anything like a timely manner. There just seems to be no urgency and any outbreak after the end of June would have been completely avoidable and any loss of money or life will be on their heads. The Public Service tends to attract a certain type and unfortunately the worst of a bad bunch tend to end up in politics and running the country.
But yes, it will be nice to get away from my spoilt teenage kids and back to sunny Las Vegas, where it is not unusual to even see a cloud for a month or more. But thanks to the speed of this Govt I reckon I have nearly another year to enjoy NZ with the family before that can happen. At least I am not stuck in Mumbai or Manila with my five kids waiting for the Govt to let me join my essential working partner in NZ.

Fly out today Karl - what's your hold up - oh I see you need a jab first as scared you will get COVID in Vegas? Let me guess a impatient Boomer, and by the moaning on this site it is again the Boomer me me generation with the loudest complaints, while the rest of us just get on with it.

frazz...I am not a boomer and I am also patient. Being under 55 and very very healthy and fit I am not scared of Covid at all. I would probably hardly notice if I got it. Clearly, you did not read my post properly as I stated it is not all about me. It should have been about vaccinating our people as quickly as possible to protect the vulnerable and to also ensure there is no further reduction in quality of life and financial loss on our people. For me, I am not physically vulnerable, would be minimally effected by even a lockdown and do not need any more money.
What it is about is holding an ineffective, painfully slow Govt to account for their lack of planning and direction. Any type of detailed and specific vaccination planning was only undertaken as a response to criticism. Watching them in action is like standing in a shop while my 80 year old mother decides on a new pair of shoes. Painful.
It is ironic that you say "while the rest of us get on with it". All I am asking is that they do bloody well get on with it and when the gold medal for the slowest developed country to vaccinate is handed out I do not have the shame of listening to the NZ national anthem. Forget let's do this. How about Just Do It.

Nonchalance is too kind. Non-performance more accurately and it is becoming obvious that they are not capable of anything better, a reality that cannot be overcome. This CV19 pandemic was the time, just like a jet airliner captain in a crisis, that the highly paid executive in the Ministry of Health should earn their spurs. How the heck can you justify assembling an expert working group now, and not well before the immunisation program commenced. The only answer is that the planning has been inadequate, too late and inexpert. To put it bluntly do they actually know what they are doing at this present time and next?

I would add that the USA vaccinate 3 million per day

Yes they're 75 or 80 times our population but that would be a rate of 45 to 50 thousand per day for us.

This was foreseeable last year and indeed it was that NZ would be left behind

I don't care if it takes a while to roll out, it will happen soon enough - someone in India or Brazil can have my dose in the meantime.

If you think housing is bad now, wait until the backlog of people are allowed in through open borders.

sparrow..other countries should have priority in getting vaccines but that is not the problem. I think we have had 400 000+ vaccines sitting round NZ for weeks now. It is likely just complete lack of planning, urgency and organization.
And hopefully the majority are starting to really see the errors of our ways in regard to mass immigration and immense pressure will be put on our Govt to discontinue such a damaging policy.

It doesn't really matter what the majority think, because all political parties have a policy of mass immigration.

I think there will be a rush when the borders open and all last years intake arrive, then BAU net migration of 50,000 to 70,000 per annum. The only thing that could change those numbers is if we get an exodus of our own young and talented, leaving because of unaffordable housing. Hardly a win for NZ.

Blimey that is pessimistic. Wish I didn’t agree. The telling point is that the relative minister is on record stating pre CV19 levels of immigration will not be resumed. True this government is not unique in telling porkies but they do have recent form.

sparrow.. I tend to agree. If I had to guess I would say that it will take us another 2 or 3 years before most people realize the extent of the severe damage caused by "net negative mass migration" and force the Govts hand. It may take longer but IMO, one day it will be clear to all how misguided we were. But yes, it may take much longer than I think.
And yes, there is absolutely no doubt there will be a huge rush of long-term visa applications once borders open but it is a matter of how the Govt reacts to the rush. Pull up the gangplank would be my preferred option.

12th Oct 2020 - NZ orders pfizer vaccine - https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/pfizer-covid-new-zealand/
8th March 2021 - NZ orders enough vaccine for the whole country - https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/govt-purchases-enough-pfizer-vaccine...
23rd March - vaccine plan outlined - https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-nov...

This pandemic is far from over yet CEO Jamie Dimon believes a boom is coming to the US? Look at whats unfolding with these new variants in Brazil, India, Canada etc. I have a feeling we may very well see a new wave of these variants come through which will halt reopenings. I hope I am wrong on this though as it's going to suck for everyone if it happens. This P1 variant from Brazil looks to be the big risk on the horizon.

"I have a feeling we may very well see a new wave of these variants come through which will halt reopening"

Then what do you advise we stay closed indefinitely? This virus isn't going be beaten it will become endemic in global society. We just have to accept that.

I say give everyone in NZ who wants the pfizer vaccine the shot then open back up.

a valid position- but people will die especially those who chose not to be vaccinated which we know will hit Maori and Pasifica hardest - more so as they are also more likely to have significant underlying heart conditions and be obese - a major indicator of morbidity from covid.

The working group is purely to ensure the Jacinda is protected from the backlash -- as she can say she took the advice of her experts that we should open up - but when those outbreaks do happen -- there will be chaos - as lockdowns will not be possible -- as those who have chose to get vaccinated will not be very tolerant about loosign income / jobs/freedoms etc to save anti vaccers!

Exactly the first feature of any consultancy or committee or whatever is that said body will have disclaimer absolving them of any responsibility if things go pear shaped. The employer, in this case our government can then avail themselves of someone to blame. Neither party can thus be held accountable and it is a lucrative deal for those involved, funded out of other people’s money,

He nailed the inflation bit, though.

From U.S. virologist Jay Levy:
The attention to the variants really disturbs me. They may be less sensitive to antibodies but they are still sensitive! What is happening is just an attempt, in my opinion, to sell more newspapers by using scare techniques. I like the term "scariants" instead of "variants."
The Important message is that the vaccine will work against all the known variants.
Therefore reporters and medical consultants should be emphasizing getting the vaccine.
Besides preventing severe disease, they will also prevent the emergence of new variants
that may show an important difference in sensitivity to the vaccines.

Adam..like the Chch mosque killer, that man's name should never be spoken. And to take notice of what he says is akin to listening to Ashley Church or signing up to "Tony's View".

I agree - these new variants are a real concern. Very little has been said about the number of people entering the country with Covid after having pre-flight tests. I can understand the odd person only testing positive after arrival, but the numbers don't stack up. It appears that a large number of third world countries have a black market of fake testing certificates and if people coming into MIQ have knowingly purchased these fake certs, they should be charged with fraud.

New Zealand travel bubble won’t come cheap
If you thought a trip to New Zealand, including the ski hub of Queenstown, was expensive before COVID-19, just wait for the trans-Tasman travel bubble prices.

https://www.afr.com/companies/tourism/new-zealand-travel-bubble-won-t-co...

The fight for everyone to retain their own internal tourists yet attract those from other countries has begun.
The price of a day ticket at Thredbo is going to be peanuts compared to the all-up cost of the same at Coronet Peak.

Stu Nash only wants the obscenely wealthy types to come here

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=123...

Sadly I will have to cross Queenstown off my bucket list

... so much more fun in Queenstown without it being totally crowded & priced out ... Go now ! ... before the rampant hoards of Ockers descend ....

Stuff Nash is more full of sh*t than the macrocarpa hedges around Wanaka ...

I just booked a rental cars in Auckland for 4 days - now costs 50% more than pre covid - welcome to the new inflationary world.

10
up

Wow, that is crazy, I assume it's a like for like vehicle comparison.
I'm refusing to entertain any businesses with crazy price hikes. In fact, I have generally withdrawn from the consumer economy, with the exception being the occasional item of clothing or the odd book here and there.

16
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Same here Fritz. I have noticed cheaper domestic airfares, but when checking out hotel prices it's easy to see that the industry expects Kiwis to pay incredibly high prices. I stopped at a very ordinary motel in Ashburton recently (weather turning bad and I'd driven too long). The price cost me more than a night at my favourite hotel on the South Bank in Brisbane. What made it worse was the motel was 'tired' - what a rip off.

It has always been an inflationary world. It is just that China has kept consumer price inflation at low levels for the last 20 years. NZ has had rampant inflation in assets during this time. I think China may stop "importing the worlds inflation" moving forward & can expect inflation in consumer goods to match that of asset prices.

Depends on whether the Chinese regime maintains its generous subsidy programmes for loss-making industries that otherwise wouldn't last another day in business.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/For-some-Chinese-compani...

Elsewhere in the US, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is his influential annual letter to shareholders has said the US economy will now likely boom. He says this will be based on a a combination of excess savings, deficit spending, a potential infrastructure bill, vaccinations and “euphoria around the end of the pandemic.

But the CEO was very candid about China...

“China’s leaders believe America is in decline... The Chinese see an America that is losing ground in technology, infrastructure and education – a nation torn and crippled . . . and a country unable to coordinate government policies (fiscal, monetary, industrial, regulatory) in any coherent way to accomplish national goals.”

“Unfortunately,” Dimon writes, “there is a lot of truth to this.”

Warning of the real risks of stagflation, the banker warned

"...the United States could be perceived as a place that is inhospitable to capitalism and capitalists,” and he advised readers to think about “currency diversification, country diversification, and asset class diversification.”

The banks have $178 billion sitting on deposit with the Reserve Bank (of Australia), earning zero interest. It was $155 billion a month ago. This is newly created money. In crude terms, the RBA is “printing” money hand over fist, but why are the banks not lending it? Surely, it is not just a capital buffer for the banks if (things) gets nasty.

In New Zealand, the central bank recently had its mandate extended to housing prices for the first time. It followed these remarks from the Finance Minister: “The Bank will have to take into account the Government’s objective to support more sustainable house prices, including by dampening investor demand for existing housing stock to help improve affordability for first-home buyers”.

Don’t be surprised to see a move by regulators here to contain the housing bubble. They are likely to have to address it at some point. Meantime, there is the small matter of that lazy $178 billion … and just what to do with it. Surely, it is not just a capital buffer for the banks if the housing market gets nasty.

https://www.michaelwest.com.au/psst-about-that-lazy-178-billion-the-bank...

"Surely" lol

The banks have $178 billion sitting on deposit with the Reserve Bank (of Australia), earning zero interest. It was $155 billion a month ago. This is newly created money. In crude terms, the RBA is “printing” money hand over fist, but why are the banks not lending it? Surely, it is not just a capital buffer for the banks if (things) gets nasty.

A recent Bloomberg article described central bank easing with the phrase “pumping money into the economy.” That’s a misconception. Monetary easing is actually an asset swap. The public was holding savings in one form, and now it holds it in another. The Fed buys Treasury securities from the public, and replaces them with currency and bank reserves (base money) that someone has to hold, at every point in time, until the Fed sells its bonds and retires the cash. All monetary policy does is to change the mix of government obligations held by the public. Only fiscal policy – specifically deficit spending – changes the total amount of those obligations. Link

That quote was written by someone who literally has no idea how banking actually works.

1. Banks DO NOT lend out reserves - they create new money every time they lend.
2. Banks are not constrained by the amount of cash in their reserves - they lend whenever a borrower meets their risk criteria.

Thus, the reason banks are not loaning out more is that people and businesses do not want to borrow the money.

Will Dimon ever understand that his class of industry and it's favoured status was precisely what gutted the entrepreneurial spirit from the US?

For once, agreee with Mike Hosking :

Mike Hosking on rental property law changes: Government's new rules don't make a jot of difference

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/mike-hosking-on-rental-property-law-change...

It proves that all noise from so called landlords, investors was just for affect and also government, if serious to actually try in controlling the housing ponzi through speculative demand should immediately stop Interest Only Loan through rbnz without further delay.

Repeating self to highlight that stopping Interest Only Loan may not e a silver bullet but is the closest to a silver bullet that Jacind Arden was talking about.

stu...in a little over a month (26 May) we will see if there is a real will to ensure a fairer, more inclusive NZ and even the playing field between investors and FHBs. It will be obvious whether last week's changes are just window dressing and posturing or if the Govt (and the RBNZ) is for real. They can run but they can't hide (after 26 May). REMOVE INTERST ONLY LOANS.

As well as introducing DTIs.

Discussion on Interest Only Loan has started BUT is to put pressure on RBNZ and government, not to impliment any control on it along with DTI.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/opinion-central-banks-should-not-tar...

Central bank target to support and boost the house prise, when fear of fall but when going out of control, should keep quiet thereby indicating that please be a silent spectator and let the ponzi continue.

Double standard / Biased Vested Thinking Exposed.

Funny, this is just the begining hinting and putting pressure in a single way, now before getting vocal - directly.

Did anyone raised or suggested when last year RBNZ came out in full support to support and promote house price by removing LVR ( Which now is accepted by all that was a mistake in zero interest scenario), mortage holiday, falling interest rate........

Taimaiakka0 your inference is bang on that the article is suggesting that RBNZ should not do anything or react and let the housing ponzi run.

Real shame. Let us see if anyone come out with a rebuttal article or remain silent as being silent is another way of supporting the ponzi.

"but London was the outlier again, rising another strong +0.9%"

You really need to mention that the GBP weakened 0.7%. As most LSE stocks are multinationals with majority overseas earnings, their value in GBP rising just reflects that the USD has risen. In USD terms you are looking at a 0.2% rise. It was similar yesterday

Does this gentlemen has any creditability of putting an unbiased report but nonethe less as below though have not read it myself :

https://www.blog.reinz.co.nz/reports-1/tony-april-2021

richard...Does it trigger anybody else when they see the phrase, 'Tony Alexander, independent economist"?

The very small sample sizes and leading questions make this statistically weak. Having said that at least the questions are being asked from those at the coal face so giving a healthy discount for statistical weakness and respondent bias it is still interesting across time to see movement.

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Audaxes, I feel the Chinese are making the same mistake the Japanese made in deciding on and prosecuting the Southern Strategy , involving the attack on Pearl Harbour, which was based on perceptions by the Army Faction headed by Hideki Tojo, and the position of Foreign Minister, Yosuke Matsumoto, that America was weak, morally bankrupt and a pushover. A view I suspect is shared by many of the knee jerk anti America people on this blog.

They were vehemently opposed by Isoroku Yamamoto, arguably the most intelligent and definitely the most knowledgeable about the United States, its strengths and its people, having studied at Harvard University and served two terms as Defence Attache at the Japanese Embassy. However, when his country went to war he of course, as a serving navel officer and commander of the IJN, did his best but with this caveat. " If you follow my carrier -based strategy we will run riot in the Pacific for six months, but if we do not achieve complete victory or negotiate a favourable diplomatic settlement, we will lose. It will only be a matter of time." And we know the rest.

Roosevelt did not react to the Japanese incursion into China apart from locating a modest force of “advisors” with those of Chiang Kai Shek. Industrially the USA dwarfed Japan and the strategy then became to cut off oil supply to Japan. Hence the Japanese tactic, doomed in the long term strategically, to attack Pearl Harbour and take out the fleet. Tactic even failed as the prime target of aircraft carriers were out at sea. If oil supply was the problem Japan, as a Axis member, could have taken the oil fields of Dutch East Indies, Brunei and on, attacked Hong Kong through to Singapore and hoped domestic isolationists would continue to keep the USA from intervening. Highly recommend reading V D Hanson The Second World Wars. Covers brilliantly and accurately, the big picture, all the theatres, players and armaments

This one is also a fascinating account, and from a more Japanese perspective: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/79929.The_Rising_Sun

'There has been a very large rise in consumer credit growth in the US in February as the renewed fetish for debt and the struggle to make ends both gathered steam.
Consumer credit rose a rather remarkable +7.9% year-on-year, or up +US$27 bln from January, the largest rise ever. There was a good rise in credit card (revolving) balances, but the really big increase was for personal loans, especially car loans.'

Imagine going onto the comments section of a popular health news site where most of the commenters are health professionals or people actively engaged in health campaigning or issues. Now imagine how terrible the comments would be if the site published an article on the bond markets, or the impact of tax changes on property rentals. ^^^^^