Breakfast briefing: More growth and inflation

US inflation expectations up; Sharp rise in Canadian business sentiment; China corporate lending up; Japanese bank lending up; Japanese producer prices surge; UST 10yr at 1.67%; oil steady, gold down; NZ$1 = 70.3 USc; TWI-5 = 72.7

13th Apr 21, 7:20am by David Hargreaves

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news economic activity is continuing to pick up, but so is inflation and so are expectations of inflation.

In the United States the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data Survey of Consumer Expectations, for March shows a continuation in the recent upward trend in inflation, home price and spending growth expectations. In particular, expectations about home, gas, and rent price changes all reached new series highs in March. Median inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons both increased 0.1 percentage point in March to 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively. Inflation expectations at both horizons have increased steadily over the past five months and they are now at their highest since mid-2014.

Labor market expectations continued to recover with higher expectations about job security and improved unemployment expectations. Finally, households were more positive about their current and expected financial situation and their ability to access credit.

Median year-ahead home price change expectations increased 0.8 percentage point to 4.8% in March, a new series high. The increase was driven mostly by respondents who live in the "West" and "Midwest" Census regions. The median one-year ahead expected change in the price of gas and in the price of rent increased by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage point in March to new series highs at 9.9% and 9.3%, respectively. The median expected change in food prices remained unchanged in March, while the median expected change in the cost of medical care and in the cost of a college education decreased by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point to 9.3% and 5.6%, respectively.

The latest US inflation figures are due for release tomorrow, with the expectation annual inflation will rise to 2.5% from 1.7%.

And the US Government's latest Budget statement for March has just come out. It shows that America Inc ran up a US$659.6 billion deficit in the month, a record for a March, as Covid stimulus payments were sent out, up from US$311 billion in February, and up from just under US$119 billion in March a year ago. The deficit for the year to date is over US$1.7 trillion, which is a record for six months..

The Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey has shown a sharp rise in the outlook and mood of Canadian businesses. The BOS Indicator measuring the overall mood soared to 2.87 in March from just 1.3 in December. In the middle of last year that same indicator plunged to -6.87. Future sales and investment expectations of firms all increased strongly, but employment intentions remained around the same.

In China's massive financial sector China's new yuan-denominated loans totalled 2.73 trillion yuan (about 416.3 billion US. dollars) in March, down by 103.9 billion yuan year on year, central bank data shows. In the first quarter of 2021, new yuan loans hit 7.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 574.1 billion yuan, the People's Bank of China said. Loans in the household and corporate sectors increased by 2.56 trillion yuan and 5.35 trillion yuan, respectively. The data also showed China's new yuan deposits hit 8.35 trillion yuan in the first three months, up by 284.4 billion yuan from the same period a year earlier. By the end of March, the outstanding yuan deposits increased by 9.9 percent, year on year, to 220.92 trillion yuan.

And China has imposed a sweeping restructuring on Jack Ma’s Ant Group, the fintech conglomerate whose record $37 billion IPO was derailed by regulators in November, underscoring Beijing’s determination to rein in its internet giants. The overhaul, in the works for several months, includes Ant turning itself into a financial holding firm, a move expected to curb its profitability and valuation by curtailing some of its freewheeling businesses. It comes two days after Ma’s Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, of which Ant is an affiliate, was hit with a record $2.8 billion antitrust penalty as China tightens controls on the booming “platform economy”.

Japanese bank lending rose 6.3% in March from a year earlier, as restaurants and hotels sought more loans to weather the hit from the Covid-19 pandemic. Deposits held by banks were also up 9.9% in March as households continued to save rather than spend on uncertainty over the pandemic’s fallout, the Bank of Japan data showed. Outstanding loans held by the country’s four main categories of banks, including “shinkin” or credit unions, hit a fresh record at 579.995 trillion yen ($5.29 trillion), according to the data. In February, total loans increased 6.2%. The introduction of a new scheme that offers incentives to banks that channel more funds to pandemic-hit firms has yet to have a major impact on bank lending, a BOJ official said.

Producer prices in Japan have come in much stronger than forecast in March, while previous figures have been revised upwards too helping give an annual increase about double that forecast. The PPI rose 0.8% from the previous month, February, when there was a revised 0.6% rise (up from 0.4%). The forecast rise for March had been 0.4%, while the annual forecast rise had been 0.5% - but the figure actually came in at 1%. In March, nearly half of the rise in the PPI was due to petroleum and coal products, while there was also a strong upward contribution from copper-related products and chemical products. The export price index rose 1.1% from February and the import price index rose 1.7%.

The latest Roy Morgan survey in Australia for March showed Australians expected inflation of 3.8% annually over the next two years, up 0.1% points on February, and the highest since March 2020 (4.0%). Inflation Expectations are now 0.9% points below their long-term average of 4.7% but have increased by 0.6% points since reaching a record low of only 3.2% in August 2020.

Red ink overnight on major markets: On Wall Street, the S&P500 is down a modest -0.2% in early afternoon trade. Major European markets were down an average of -0.3% overnight. Yesterday, the Shanghai market ended down -1.1%, Hong Kong down -0.9%, while the very large Tokyo market closed down -0.8%. The ASX200 fell -0.3% yesterday, and the NZX50 Capital Index fell -0.4%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising, now 136,209,000 have been infected at some point, up +592,000 in one day. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,940,000 and up +9,000 in one day. Vaccinations in the world are also rising fast, now up to 789 mln (+34 mln) and in the US more than half of their population (185.5 mln) have had at least one dose as they achieve a very fast rollout. The number of active cases there fell to 6,872,000 and down -5,000 overnight.

The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 1.67%. The US 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at 150 bps. Their 1-5 curve is a little steeper at +82 bps, as is their 3m-10 year curve at +166 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is unchanged again at 1.73%. The China Govt 10 year yield is softer by -2 bps at 3.22%. But the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is up +2 bps at 1.74%.

The price of gold starts today at US$1733/oz and down -US$11 in a day.

Oil prices are little-changed from this time yesterday, now just over US$59.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just over US$63/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens unchanged at 70.3 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are slightly softer at 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are soft at 59 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is just below 72.7.

The bitcoin price will start today at US$59,790 and also essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. However, at one point between it reached US$61,220. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 1.5%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

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94 Comments

by GV 27 | 13th Apr 21, 7:42am 1618256520

So how many months worth of consumer inflation will we see before it 1) registers in our loopy "Everything's fine" weighted basket of goods that we use to gauge inflation and 2) before it gets picked up and published as an actual number? If it starts in the third month of a quarter, then it could be another full three month cycle before it has a decent effect, and those numbers will take another month to be collated. So we could conceivable see five months of aggressive inflation before our system for measuring picks it up and flags it publicly?

by Brock Landers | 13th Apr 21, 7:45am 1618256748

It's hard to convince a man of seeing inflation when his salary depends on not seeing it.

by fortunr | 13th Apr 21, 8:38am 1618259928

brilliant comment - maybe the following verse should be recited to the management of the RBNZ:
"Hear this, you foolish and senseless people, who have eyes but do not see, who have ears but do not hear"

by Foxglove. | 13th Apr 21, 8:42am 1618260167

Takes you back to your childhood doesn’t it. Grandfather pointing to the three wise monkeys ornament. Broad hint that, as to what might come next might hurt.

by JRSNZ | 13th Apr 21, 9:07am 1618261676

Absolutely brilliant.

by Tom Valen | 13th Apr 21, 9:16am 1618262212

Upton Sinclair — 'It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.'

by EdwardD | 13th Apr 21, 1:15pm 1618276505

Comment of the week LOL

by MortgageBelt | 13th Apr 21, 7:49am 1618256996

After hyper-inflation of housing costs (not fully felt due to low/zero interest rates) maybe some inflation within the weekly basket of goods will not be of great concern to consumers.

by JimboJones | 13th Apr 21, 8:28am 1618259311

I suspect we have already seen the inflation (remember 10 years ago when $1 million was a lot of money); consumer goods and wages will just be finally catching up. The perverse thing is that they will use interest rate rises to prevent consumer goods prices catching up but wouldn't use them to stop the asset price inflation in the first place.

by MortgageBelt | 13th Apr 21, 8:33am 1618259587

Well, there is always helicopter money Eg $1400 to each household as done in the US.
This would be a more equitable distribution/stimulus than the QE & ZIRP.

by donny11 | 13th Apr 21, 8:49am 1618260588

Will be interesting to see the extent to which wages "catches up". When the people in charge hold the real economy in such contempt its hard to see the real economy & hence wages flourishing. I can see the country getting to a point where a large chunk of people have all of there income go on rent & food, at that point the CPI doesn't matter. What does mater is the price of rent & food.

by fortunr | 13th Apr 21, 8:41am 1618260062

The RBNZ, after screwing savers, is about to start screwing consumers.
But everything is fine, aint'it, as long as the NZ housing Ponzi is prevented from imploding.

by Rosenstein | 13th Apr 21, 8:33am 1618259627

Hyperinflation in the donut market?

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Apr 21, 7:50am 1618257003

Housing is no longer a necessity but a luxury good. Turns out that housing is actually a necessity but owning the land (of which there is not an infinite supply and that is further constrained by allocation regulation and prior ownership) is a luxury.

"In theory, the long-run rise in the housing share of the economy is somewhat puzzling. To the
extent that the consumption of housing services is a necessity, housing demand should be income
inelastic; as households get richer, they should spend less on housing services."

"This empirical puzzle can be reconciled with theory by noting that a home consists of both a land
component and a structure component; the building structure is a necessary good but the land is,
quite literally, a ‘positional’ or luxury good (Frank 2005). So, to the extent that land is a luxury
good, we might expect an increase in income to be associated with higher demand for housing
services. "

Sadly this leads to the share of our capital allocated to un-productive housing to increase.

"Moreover, if there are very few substitutes for housing, and hence demand is price
inelastic, then rising housing prices could cause the housing expenditure share to rise, even as
income rises (Albouy et al 2014). "

https://www.bis.org/publ/work572.pdf

by CWBW | 13th Apr 21, 7:58am 1618257492

Veblen is the word.

Can't wait for the Greenies to add a few more hundreds of restrictions now that the RMA is splitting 3 ways.

Forget Lamborghini or Rolls Royce, just buy a house and you'll be there.

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Apr 21, 8:03am 1618257826

Developers of the future might be best investing in a law degree. I can see a future where law firms buy out bewildered developers and "pivot their business model" to deliver the few developments to make it to fruition. Try suing them for poor construction after the fact lol!

by donny11 | 13th Apr 21, 8:43am 1618260215

The lawyers in Auckland CBD must also be salivating over the changes. Going to create a lot of work for them as the Nimbys go to war with the developers.

by RickStrauss | 14th Apr 21, 11:30am 1618356626

Propose we introduce ritual human sacrifices of people who pretend to be libertarian but act as NIMBYs.

by KH | 13th Apr 21, 8:31am 1618259518

"...... In theory, the long-run rise in the housing share of the economy is somewhat puzzling......"
I guess this means that in the rarified atmosphere of Wellington Bureaucrats, they can't acknowledge the house price disaster because they can't see it in their modeling.
Somtimes ya gotta forget the model and look out the window.

by GV 27 | 13th Apr 21, 8:37am 1618259877

A cynic might suggest that we finally got action on housing once prices pushed wellington houses out of reach of well-heeled career civil servant managerial types, while Auckland has struggled with affordability issues for a decade now with nary a whisper.

by iconoclast | 13th Apr 21, 9:03am 1618261426

Ardern only became aware of the magnitude of the problem when the property across the road from her in Sandringham sold for $3.8 million. Having paid a mere $1.7 million for her renovated villa. Effectively she made $2 million in 3 years

by Brock Landers | 13th Apr 21, 9:08am 1618261715

She was never the sharpest tool in the shed.

by Foxglove. | 13th Apr 21, 9:10am 1618261845

That was an extraordinarily naive remark wasn’t it. Nothing matters until it is in my little world and affects me more or less. Ok off the cuff, but still remarkably poor and subjective choice of an example.

by SimonRo | 13th Apr 21, 10:22am 1618266151

Trump-esque perhaps? A sweet honest showing of naivety

by Becnz | 13th Apr 21, 10:45am 1618267553

Sad effort and that is why we are in for big trouble the sugar rush is finished and we will now see who is over leveraged with inflation kicking up a gear and punishing anyone with a weak balance sheet.

by ham n eggs | 13th Apr 21, 11:00am 1618268417

"we will now see who is over leveraged "

EVERYONE!!
You cant be part of the financial system and not be over leveraged
Debt IS Wealth
Your wealth only applies as long as the whole Ponzi holds

by Tom Valen | 13th Apr 21, 12:11pm 1618272698

When the crunch comes, will I have any sympathy for the greedy, entitled idiots who have been borrowing and spending like there is no tomorrow?
I guess I should, but it will be hard to. Ignorance is bliss but it also a pretty sad trait. People should aspire to be something more than just another sheep.

by ham n eggs | 13th Apr 21, 1:11pm 1618276282

"will I have any sympathy for the greedy, entitled idiots who have been borrowing and spending like there is no tomorrow?"

= Humans
We discount the future to live like kings today

by frazz | 13th Apr 21, 7:54am 1618257256

In a way it is theft by the central bank as they produce the money that causes monetary inflation (expansion of the monetary base) and so decrease the value of the money everyone else has saved. ... This specific policy does transfer income from savers to borrowers, or in my opinion theft.

by GV 27 | 13th Apr 21, 8:04am 1618257840

Gets better when the government both mandates inflation through the a PTA with the central bank but then refuses to adjust income tax thresholds to account for the inflation they legally required to be present.

Grand larceny IMO.

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Apr 21, 8:10am 1618258224

This is why I cringe when people criticise FHBs for buying at current valuations, a) like they have a choice and b) your assessment above would mean this is the best (and perhaps only) valid way to use their excess income. Saving it is simply letting it wash away over time.

by frazz | 13th Apr 21, 8:14am 1618258476

Yes unfortunately I have to agree with you - any hard asset is better than worthless FIAT shrinking in a bank account on daily basis. The system is screwed..

by JimboJones | 13th Apr 21, 8:31am 1618259481

Well at least you pay tax on both now; it was even more screwed when housing investment was tax free (or as Ashley Church calls it: "fair")

by Audaxes | 13th Apr 21, 8:59am 1618261158

Freed from the physical constraints of actually holding cash, Basel essentially moved reserve requirements from the asset side of the banking system’s balance sheet to the liability side. Banks were no longer limited to multiplying credit from their reserves of national currency on hand. They could now produce credit and deposits from their store of equity capital. And a large segment of equity capital is retained earnings, meaning banks could multiply their own ability to create credit and leverage through using leverage on their own profitability. The status quo of the banking system has become one in which banks themselves control the levers of money creation – it is the wildest fantasies of the banking system come true.

But in depending so much on leverage, the banking system has become overly dependent on collateral. Collateral provides the lowest cost short-term operational funds while at the same time, depending on the particulars of each class of collateral, affords a reduction in the equity capital charge via regulatory definitions of “safety”. A repo transaction for a bank is a collateralized loan where a bank can fund assets at that lowest cost. In terms of the overall quantity of those assets a bank can ultimately hold and turn into profits, the securities that adhere to regulatory definitions of safety lead to the lowest capital reserve charges, and therefore provide both regulatory and funding leverage.

This accounting trick of regulatory safety meant financial innovation was needed to not only transform risky assets, but to mass-produce them as “safe”. Securitization of mortgage debt was one innovation widely used to create AAA-rated securities that were readily accepted as low haircut repo collateral, while at the same time using up as little equity capital as possible. The interest rate paid by the underlying mortgages and the traditional concept of risk/reward were secondary and tertiary considerations to how much leverage could be obtained and applied. Quality of assets was hardly considered in the pursuit for ultimate quantity. Link

by Audaxes | 13th Apr 21, 11:15am 1618269317

Hence our Australian owned building societies extend 60 % of their lending to one third of already wealthy households to speculate in the residential property market because the RBNZ offers them an RWA capital reduction incentive, to do so.

Bank lending to housing rose from $50,788 million (48.36% of total lending) as of Jun 1998 to $301,450 million (60.46% of total lending) as of February 2021 - source.

by frazz | 13th Apr 21, 9:23am 1618262585

Any chance you could use your own words and break it all down for us A?

by Audaxes | 13th Apr 21, 9:53am 1618264439

It's plain as day - you are referencing an outdated concept of the money multiplier (fractional reserve banking - monetary base dependent) which has not been relevant for more than 60 years. Text books are in need of revision. Thus QE reserves (monetary base) are irrelevant in terms of credit creation activities undertaken by banks. They are just another interest bearing asset with zero risk weights attached.

by frazz | 13th Apr 21, 10:45am 1618267508

So you don't agree inflation is theft?

by Let me be Frank | 13th Apr 21, 11:09am 1618268993

They are...but the fact that asset sits there is an implicit underwriting of the private banks.....too important to fail.
And so they continue to increase their book....madness.

by Audaxes | 13th Apr 21, 11:37am 1618270627

The fact banks are accumulating such a low return pristine asset class does not bode well for the economic outlook. The government is crowding out lending to the GDP qualifying productive sector which demands a higher capital risk weighting.

by Let me be Frank | 13th Apr 21, 11:38am 1618270701

crowding out indeed....so not only do they promote an almost singular asset class they concurrently undermine the ability to support the servicing of that inflated risk...as said ,madness.

by Roelof | 13th Apr 21, 12:53pm 1618275217

Audaxes...
Two points... ( from ur article) Increasing the monetary base DOES enable money printing as it exchanges risky assets for cash ( electronic reserves).
This lowers the Capital adequacy ratio... a little.
ALSO... that exchange of dodgy securities for reserves was about as unfair as it gets.. Call it theft if u like.. An almost criminal bailout... ( originally Central Banks were supposed to be punitive in regards to the help they gave banks in need.).. ( in the same way Buffet was when he helped citibank ).

Snider talks in a circle.... Financial innovation has less to do with Capital requirements and more to do with the greed of making profits and sucking in gullible retail investors.
ie.. the packaging and selling of a "product" .... that was bullshit,..

Are you being a little mischievous..when u say hardly? Im sure u got the gist of what Frazz was talking about.
You seem to be implying that monetary inflation is NOT a form of theft, and that Central Banks are NOT involved in the process...
In fact, Central Banks underwrite the whole money expansion game ( credit growth ) by being the , at call, liquidity provider..

just my view

by Let me be Frank | 13th Apr 21, 6:19pm 1618294757

There is no 'money printing'.....yet

by Galloleous | 13th Apr 21, 12:49pm 1618274953

You are dead right, Inflation is just taxation. And it disproportionally affects the poorer members of society.
And yet you still dont understand the value proposition of Bitcoin Frazz?? An immutable, globally decentralised system with a FIXED supply of 21m tokens and a set supply schedule. No one can devalue your portion of the network that you control..https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
What is 21,000,000 / an infinite amount of fiat currency?

by frazz | 13th Apr 21, 8:27am 1618259260

No comment on our usual vaccine roll out moaners? Luckily we have some great scientists here looking at real data before making big decision's that affect us all.

"Up until late last week, Australia had served as a useful comparison for how our vaccine roll out was tracking. Its programme was being delivered quicker than New Zealand – aided by the fact that there was more supply of vaccine available.
Then it came to a screeching halt. On Thursday, amid fears about rare blood clots caused by the AstraZeneca vaccine, the Australian Government suddenly suspended the Astra Zeneca part of its vaccine roll out.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/124808395/covid19-new…

by Rosenstein | 13th Apr 21, 8:37am 1618259852

It's a rare gift to look incompetence in the face and see prudence

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Apr 21, 9:24am 1618262646

:) nice.

by frazz | 13th Apr 21, 12:13pm 1618272783

Australian vaccine delay casts doubt over Qantas' international restart plans

by GV 27 | 13th Apr 21, 8:44am 1618260297

Australia having problems doesn't suddenly make us more competent.

Why is this so hard for people to understand? "Could be worse, maybe?" is not an effective pandemic response plan.

by donny11 | 13th Apr 21, 8:54am 1618260875

Don't think it will matter anyway. By the time we get round to opening up (probably mid next year) the Pfizer vaccine will have already been defeated by one of the new variants.
https://www.cityam.com/new-super-covid-variant-combines-18-mutations

Its touch & go as to whether the pfizer vaccine stands up the South Africa varient anyway.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/11/covid-variant-from-south-africa-was-abl…

by Foxglove. | 13th Apr 21, 9:18am 1618262310

NZ traditionally is gearing up now for the standard flu vaccine. NZ Herald reports great confusion as to how this is to be dovetailed with CV19 inoculating program. Rest homes mostly are those concerned. Hope it is sorted. Just because there is a new kid in town doesn’t mean other neighbourhood dangers have gone away does it.

by Room319 | 13th Apr 21, 10:09am 1618265357

Flu vaccine delayed until late July/August.

by Foxglove. | 13th Apr 21, 10:45am 1618267504

Look unfortunately I would not be surprised if that was so, but you do need to provide a source because if that is correct, all hell should break loose.

by Room319 | 13th Apr 21, 11:47am 1618271242

Yeah ah I don't think so.I guess we will see.

by nigelh | 13th Apr 21, 1:01pm 1618275717

I'm getting mine in about 10 days time (+70 bracket if that makes a difference)

by Foxglove. | 13th Apr 21, 4:17pm 1618287432

yes, us too. hopefully not a problem or any delay as well, for everyone.

by JimboJones | 13th Apr 21, 8:54am 1618260881

I think the comment was in response to many people saying Aus are doing better. And that maybe a rushed roll out is actually not as good as a more calculated one (particularly when we don't have a Covid problem in NZ)

by GV 27 | 13th Apr 21, 9:00am 1618261230

They were doing pretty well, and had ambitious targets. In typical style, we just refused to set any. Now they aren't going to make theirs, but we still don't have targets. Last week, we set up a committee to decide whether targets are even useful.

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Apr 21, 12:04pm 1618272277

It's a learned response, I mean they did set targets for kiwi-build, child poverty etc and look how that turned out.

by frazz | 13th Apr 21, 9:10am 1618261803

Yes it does by a country mile! Why is it so hard for you to admit? -The Government has consistently maintained the view that the most important thing about the vaccine rollout is not when or how it starts, but when it finishes. And that’s now looking a fair bit sooner than Australia.

by GV 27 | 13th Apr 21, 9:24am 1618262685

Australia has had two major setbacks: Vaccine nationalism from the EU and the one they make within their own borders - which their vaccine strategy was logically based off - has proven to be unsafe in certain circumstances.

What is our excuse for not even knowing whether we should have a target at this point? The government has maintained the thing that lets it get away with not being held accountable for not delivering anything. A slam dunk doesn't count for much if you're doing it on a Fisher Price kiddie-court hoop set.

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Apr 21, 9:25am 1618262756

Maybe keeping some powder dry?

"Rents hitting record highs and people living on the steps of parliament" - Govt - "we are ramping up the vaccinations"

by middleman1 | 13th Apr 21, 10:24am 1618266297

Ardern's MSM mates are crowing about her C19 vaccination approach that is now predicted to see NZ leapfrogging the Aussies. As though she presciently anticipated there would be a problem with the Oz vaccine decision and wisely steered us down a different path. Instead of the dumb muddling luck her media poodles know full well is the primary explanation.

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Apr 21, 11:55am 1618271711

Yes indeed, I thought It was quite the virtue signalling master-class to claim that we do not need the vaccine as much as others who are facing larger community infections. I would have thought the PM of our country would look to put the citizens of our country first but it appears that would be selfish. On this basis and with the virus seemingly on the increase around the world we may not be able to put ourselves first for some years.

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Apr 21, 11:56am 1618271768

by Tom Valen | 13th Apr 21, 9:23am 1618262629

We've gone from 'we have enough vaccine doses for all NZers and are at the front of the queue' to 'we are vaccinating frontline workers and close to 85% have now been vaccinated'. The narrative has totally shifted, deliberately done by Adern and her spin-doctors, and once again she is let off the hook.
This is the same as the narrative shift on housing: 'We will build 100,000 affordable houses and will solve the housing crisis' to 'we are building social housing, more social housing than NZ has built since the 1940's'.
It's all deeply cynical.

by Foxglove. | 13th Apr 21, 9:46am 1618263981

It is a very weak and vapid explanation of the “plan” isn’t it. Looks a bit like those graph lines in a ODI match whereby the captain of the first team batting, when asked what their run target had been, said same as where the graph finished up.

by middleman1 | 13th Apr 21, 10:11am 1618265494

Tom. As cynical as Ardern's recent statement that the C19 infected Indian travellers caught the virus in transit when she can't possibly know that. But useful spin to deflect the obvious question of why she ignored advice that in a deeply corrupt country such as India her governments pre travel certification process would effectively be worthless.

by blobbles | 13th Apr 21, 10:19am 1618265963

We are part of COVAX. Jacinda was wrong to make those statements originally as the COVAX program will distribute the vaccines to where they are most needed, which isn't us. The vaccines are very much a scarce resource, morally they should go to where they are most needed.

As COVID skyrockets in Philippines/Brazil/India etc, that's really where they should go if we are caring, moral people. We have a clear advantage with our isolation.

by youngdumbandbroke | 13th Apr 21, 9:53am 1618264390

Des Gorman said that at our current vaccine rate, it'll take 5 years to vaccinate all of NZ. 538 border workers still not vaccinated. Surely you can't be implying that we are world leaders in this space?

by frazz | 13th Apr 21, 10:58am 1618268324

You would quote someone called Des Gorman?

by youngdumbandbroke | 13th Apr 21, 11:20am 1618269600

So you're saying he is wrong?

by frazz | 13th Apr 21, 11:38am 1618270723

Yes - if vaccines ordered are delivered then everyone (who wants too) will be vaccinated by the end of year

by youngdumbandbroke | 13th Apr 21, 12:15pm 1618272912

They've failed to meet their targets for the first group, which is border and MIQ workers. How come you're so confident after so many bungled steps along the way?

by Tom Valen | 13th Apr 21, 12:21pm 1618273313

And you are basing this on NZ being 'at the front of the queue' I suppose frazz?

by VictimOfOCR | 13th Apr 21, 8:34am 1618259689

Something interesting happening in the cryptocurrency space is a rapid decline in Bitcoin dominance. What this means is that Bitcoin has a reducing market capitalisation relative to alt coins; or an increasing number of alt coins are being purchased. This isn’t being covered as much as I’d expect it to be.

In crypto speak, this phenomenon is sometimes called alt season and is commonly observed when Bitcoin trades sideways and people seek out more exciting projects.

Interestingly, a crash in Bitcoin dominance preceded the 2018 crash although we’re some way off the levels it fell to back then.

Chart here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/X4Gi3Lgs/

by GV 27 | 13th Apr 21, 8:47am 1618260478

Yes this has been noted on social media - the alt seasons will continue to be episodic events, until suddenly they don't unwind/crash like they have previously and the BTC dominance doesn't reverse. You'd have to think of the 9000 other cryptos out there, the heir apparent to BTC is already picking up early-investors - or perhaps we'll see a divergence where crypto gains legitimacy as a utility as well as a store of value.

by Ezy | 13th Apr 21, 9:23pm 1618305787

There's fundamental differences this halving compared to 2017 that make some comparison chalk and cheese. IMO what were seeing is wider adoption of alts that will dominate vertical channels across the horizontal ecosystem of crypto. BTC has done this with gold already and we're starting to see it eat golds market cap. Other alts are starting to gain traction across every single other financial product in the market from tokenised assets to online advertising. Every transactional service delivered over the web is ripe for the plundering. Crypto in 2021 is akin to the internet in 1997 and we've only just begun.

by Miguel | 13th Apr 21, 8:58am 1618261104

This is part of the reason Bitcoin's price is irrational speculation. People love to point out that the supply of bitcoins is "limited" ... but then fail to realise the supply of bitcoin alternatives, that provide the same utility and function, is unlimited.

by Nzdan | 13th Apr 21, 9:10am 1618261838

Nothing stopping Governments from creating their own blockchain currency and at the stroke of a pen making other blockchains illegal.

by frazz | 13th Apr 21, 9:25am 1618262727

Making blockchains illegal - and creating one to use, why would the masses switch when the whole point is to get rid of the middleman?

by GV 27 | 13th Apr 21, 10:16am 1618265795

... except for the fact that blockchains serve a purpose that goes far beyond stores of value?

by realterms | 13th Apr 21, 9:15am 1618262102

I would say that frequently the alternatives are objectively much better, except for lacking first-mover advantage.

by Miguel | 13th Apr 21, 8:58am 1618261133

double post

by Pacman_46 | 13th Apr 21, 9:24am 1618262697

Looks like paper-handed retail traders giving up their valuable Bitcoin for get rich quick schemes. These BTC are being hoovered up by institutional investors with very deep pockets. The current macro environment is completely different to previous Bitcoin cycles, so the previous models are becoming irrelevant. The Coinbase IPO goes live in a few days, and this will be the first of many. Exodus will follow shortly after. These vectors weren’t around in the last cycle, so don’t be surprised if Bitcoinization leaves the retail traders behind.

by Ezy | 13th Apr 21, 9:33pm 1618306389

Totally agree. I'd be surprised if retail investors can buy Bitcoin at all in 4 years time. My pick is that the next halving moon will be driven by bank adoption who will sew up all the OTC contracts with miners and exchanges directly leaving next to none for Joe Public. The halving after that will be governments mandating supply and mining at which point the BTC standard will be the new global reserve some time around 2031 and the GFC/QE/MMT will have worked it's way into the rear view mirror.

by Galloleous | 13th Apr 21, 12:55pm 1618275311

Well when you can create shitcoins out of thin air like the IPO days in 2017 what do you expect the Bitcoin dominance to do??
Its a good chart for picking out alt season and when it might end, but other than that it is irrelevant.

by Galloleous | 13th Apr 21, 12:56pm 1618275396

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OKLCZH0i/
Chart link as your one doesnt work?

by blobbles | 13th Apr 21, 10:33am 1618266793

Finally someone with some sense getting some airtime: https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/124810915/how-grant-robertson-got-our-e…

by Becnz | 13th Apr 21, 10:55am 1618268148

A soaring housing market and falling GDP in tandem shows how broken the New Zealand economy is.

We are in big trouble if the bubble pops now.

by blobbles | 13th Apr 21, 11:23am 1618269791

In fact, even though it will be bad for the whole country short term, I really hope it does. It will significantly improve our long term outlook, though we might lose a million people as they flee the poor economic conditions caused by hopeless leadership over the past decade or two of both governments and our central bank, a great reset is probably just what we need.

Unfortunately it is likely that when it does occur, it will cause not only enormous hardship but will likely result in even more vapid leadership than what we have/are experiencing. Or it might swing the other way and result in some strong man leadership that is likely to make it worse... (for reference, see Trump, Erdogan, Bolsonaro etc).

by Tom Valen | 13th Apr 21, 12:25pm 1618273534

I think the world needs a circuit-beaker to get us out of the clutches of the 'debt and print' / MMT maniacs and the central bank fools.
Give the borrowers, banksters, and the irrationally exuberant a bloody nose, have a clean out of the zombie corporations and the malinvestors, then lets build back better.

by RickStrauss | 13th Apr 21, 3:55pm 1618286139

Trump, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte were all promising to be strong men, but were ultimately merely vapid and horribly corrupt, albeit a grump old man flavour of vapid. That said, there's certainly the possibility of social decline and dictatorship if we keep up our endless wealth transfers from the poor to rich.

by stuart786786 | 13th Apr 21, 10:55am 1618268109

Survey shows that 10% of investors are losing in buying investment property BUT what about the 90% and of this 10% many will still go out to buy when they see easy and cheap funding that they can avail to fund their speculative activity through interest only loan as house are still going on premium though number of sale may have declined but houses that are being successfull in auction are going at premium. FOMO play a major role and for that to be controlled, government along with RBNZ has to act as only when house price rise stops or falls ( even slightly) can calm the FOMO or the fight for house just like the fight for tissue paper will continue and just like when people were fighting for tissue paper it as not because of supply but FOMO.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/04/investors-losing-interest-…

All this news and surveys spread through lobbyist is to put pressure to not act further on housing ponzi.