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Fed says US recovery 'accelerated'; Powell says 'taper' will come before rate rises; Coinbase lists; UST 10yr at 1.64%; oil much firmer, gold down; NZ$1 = 71.5 USc; TWI-5 = 73.5

Fed says US recovery 'accelerated'; Powell says 'taper' will come before rate rises; Coinbase lists; UST 10yr at 1.64%; oil much firmer, gold down; NZ$1 = 71.5 USc; TWI-5 = 73.5

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news crypto is going mainstream, through the much-talked about sharemarket listing of crypto exchange Coinbase.

But first, the US Federal Reserve has just released its latest Beige Book summary of commentary from around the US on the economy. And it says national economic activity "accelerated to a moderate pace from late February to early April". Consumer spending strengthened and despite widespread supply chain disruptions, manufacturing activity expanded further with half the 12 Districts in the Federal Reserve system citing robust growth. Prices "accelerated slightly" since the last report, with many Districts reporting moderate price increases and some saying prices rose more robustly.

"Input costs rose across the board, but especially in the manufacturing, construction, retail, and transportation sectors—specifically, metals, lumber, food, and fuel prices. Cost increases were partly attributed to ongoing supply chain disruptions, temporarily exacerbated in some cases by winter weather events.

"There were widespread reports of increased selling prices also, but typically not on pace with rising costs. Contacts generally expect continued price increases in the near term," the Fed said.

And Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told the Economic Club of Washington that the Fed will 'taper' - that is, it will reduce its monthly bond purchases - before it commits to an interest rate increase. But Powell didn't give timeframes. The Fed is currently buying US$120 billion of bonds a month and has committed to doing so till the economy recovers.

Powell says the bond buying programme will start to phase out before the Fed gets to the point of raising the target interest rate from its current highly supporting near zero level. “We will reach the time at which we will taper asset purchases when we have made substantial further progress towards our goals from last December,” Powell said. “That would in all likelihood be before, well before, the time we would consider raising interest rates. We have not voted on that order but that is the sense of the guidance.”

In the massive US housing market, mortgage applications declined last week for the third straight week, falling by 3.7%, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA). The fall is seen as a sign that rising home prices and tight supply are constraining home sales, especially in the lower tiers. While applications last week were still above last year's pandemic impacted low point they were behind the same week in 2019.

Prices for both US imports and exports rose by more than expected in March, according to the US Import and Export Price Indexes. The imports rose 1.2%, after increasing 1.3% the previous month, while the exports rose 2.1%, following a 1.6% rise in February. The 4.1% increase in import prices from December to March was the largest three-month rise for import prices since the index since May 2011. While fuel prices were a major contributor, non-fuel prices were up substantially as well.

In terms of the exports, the 6.5% advance in prices from December to March was actually the largest three-month increase since the index was first published in September 1983. In March, higher prices for agricultural and nonagricultural exports both contributed to the advance in export prices.

So, yes, Coinbase. The 2012-founded exchange, which provides the gateway for much of the trading in cryptocurrency heavyweights Bitcoin and Ethereum, has started trading on Nasdaq. The listing of Coinbase is being seen as the big 'coming out party' for cryptocurrency - the point at which it goes, if you like, 'legitimate'. Coinbase was given a 'reference price' of US$250 a share, but there was no real significance to that as this was a 'direct' listing rather than an IPO (Initial Public Offering). Anyway, the US$250 price was soon left behind as it opened at US$381, valuing the company at US$99.6 billion and catapulting it into the top 85 largest companies. The shares traded as high as US$429 before dropping back to around US$329 at time of writing.

Still in the US, Bernard Madoff, who was convicted for running the largest known Ponzi scheme in history, has died in prison where he was serving a 150-year sentence, the Federal Bureau of Prisons said. He was 82.

Growth to flag in Japan? New figures out show Japan's core private-sector machinery orders fell surprisingly for the second straight month in February, down by 8.5% from the previous month to about US$7.1 billion. This followed a 4.5% drop in January. The latest figures fell way short of market estimates for a 2.8% rise in February. These 'core private sector machinery' orders, which exclude the volatile shipping and electricity utility orders are seen as a leading indicator of private capital investment. Manufacturing industry orders dropped 5.5% and the non-manufacturing industry (excluding ships and electricity) decreased 10.9%. The latest figures cast down on whether Japan will see the kind of private-sector-led growth that will pull it out of the slump induced by the Covid pandemic.

Singapore's central bank has kept its policy settings unchanged and sees ongoing recovery for the Singapore economy this year and benign levels of inflation. In its latest six-month monetary policy statement the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) says prospects for global growth have firmed and should provide support to the ongoing recovery in the Singapore economy. "Nevertheless, output will still be below potential in 2021. Although MAS Core Inflation is expected to rise gradually this year from its current low levels, it will remain short of its historical average," MAS says.

It says the Singapore economy will grow at an above-trend pace this year, but the sectors worst hit by the crisis will continue to face significant demand shortfalls. The bank, which targets the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) and has a 'policy band' around that says it will therefore maintain a zero percent per annum rate of appreciation of the policy band. "As core inflation is expected to stay low this year, MAS assesses that an accommodative policy stance remains appropriate."

Meanwhile, the Singapore economy has surprised by actually managing to grow slightly in the past year - albeit by just 0.2%. The economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 2% in the first quarter of 2021, according to official advanced estimates, extending the 3.8% expansion in the fourth quarter of last year as the country bounced back from Covid disruptions. Year-on-year there was 0.2% growth (which beat the forecast for a 0.2% drop), compared with a 2.4% contraction as of the fourth quarter of 2020.The manufacturing and construction sectors continued to bounce back strongly, but the picture remained very mixed in the services sector.

In Australia consumer sentiment continues to go through the roof. The latest of several stellar survey outcomes is the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment, which has hit an 11-year high. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said it was "an extraordinary result". The Index is now at its highest level since August 2010 when Australia’s post-GFC rebound and mining boom were in full swing. "The survey continues to signal that the consumer will be the key driver of above-trend growth in 2021," he said.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is down -0.3% in early afternoon trade. Major European markets were up an average of +04% overnight, but Germany was down 0.2%. Yesterday, the Shanghai market ended up +0.6%, Hong Kong was up +1.4%, while the very large Tokyo market closed up +0.3%. The ASX200 rose +0.7% yesterday, and the NZX50 Capital Index rose +0.8%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising, now 137,812,000 have been infected at some point, up a sharp +919,000 in just one day. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,965,000 and up +15,000 in one day. Vaccinations in the world are also rising fast, now up to 825 mln (+19 mln) and in the US more than half of their population (190.6 mln) have had at least one dose as they achieve a very fast rollout. The number of active cases there rose to 6,879,000 and up +9,000 overnight as new pockets of infection variants take hold.

The UST 10yr yield is marginally higher at 1.64% after yesterday's big retreat. The US 2-10 rate curve is marginally steeper than yesterday at 148 bps. Their 1-5 curve is a little steeper too at +80 bps, as is their 3m-10 year curve at +163 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is up +3 bps at 1.74%. The China Govt 10 year yield is fractionally lower at just under 3.19%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield has also now retreated, down -6 bps at 1.70% in a sympathetic move to yesterday's global retreat.

The price of gold starts today at US$1736/oz and down -US$11 in a day.

Oil prices are much firmer from this time yesterday, shooting up by +US$3/bbl to now just under US$63.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just over US$66.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens today a lot higher, up a whole +1c at 71.5 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are also slightly firmer at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +60 bps at 59.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is just under 73.5 and its highest since March 22, 2021.

The bitcoin price will start today at US$62,751, lower by -0.7% from this time yesterday, but essentially holding on to yesterday's large jump. In between, it hit a record high of US$64,829 at about midnight last night. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 1.9%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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BBC Crypto firm Coinbase valued at more than oil giant BP. "Cryptocurrency firm Coinbase, which runs a top exchange for Bitcoin and other digital currency trading, has hit a market value of nearly $100bn (£72.5bn) in its stock market listing. Shares debuted on the Nasdaq at a price of $381 apiece.

The valuation puts Coinbase ahead of many well-known firms, including oil giant BP and other trading platforms."

Just another example of the "bubble of everything" that the Central banksters have created. Crypto reminds me of the mania and we know how that ended.

One thing CBs, and all governments around the world, have in common is they do not want to lose control of the money supply.

Expect a harsh regulatory environment to come to the crypto space soon.

The mania is a great example of where crypto is at right now. But if you looked past the hype in the 90s to the fundamentals and chose the right companies to invest in, many of those shares have 1000x since the bubble burst. The hyped companies fell over and disappeared into the ether but the good ones have performed beyond anyone's wildest dreams. So it will be with crypto.

As for government regulation I'm especially looking forward to seeing that play out in the crypto space. It's the last big boss for crypto to overcome. We've seen case studies occur in Nigeria, India, and Argentina and so far no single government has been able to stop the march of crypto. Bear in mind that there's not a single thing on the internet that any government has been able to completely successfully sensor. All stringent regulation does is drive that thing deeper into more obfuscated public channels. Couple that with what's happening with CBs right now and that boss fight will be better entertainment than Harry Potter, Star Wars and Game of Thrones all rolled into one! Get the popcorn because there's about 10 seasons to watch and it's going to be epic.

"so far no single government has been able to stop the march of crypto.."

For what purpose?
why do they need to?
If a whole lot of people started bidding up green rocks, would the Govt step in?

Well to retain control of course

so have you asked yourself why the big boys havent moved to control it?

Because it’s uses technology they don’t understand and haven’t figured out how to control

Face Palm

I have a bubble to float. Working on an IPO currently.

On a log scale, Bitcoin is going through its forth parabolic cycle of growth since its inception. Bubbles don’t usually survive one. Have you considered that you just don’t understand it properly?

What P/E does that give them?

About 100 -WSJ

What happens next..
- are we there yet....

America’s top COVID adviser says Australia cannot rely on vaccines and border controls to protect its population, warning no country is safe while the virus is allowed to spread beyond its borders.

Dr Anthony Fauci issued the sobering reality check during the University of NSW’s inaugural David Cooper Lecture this week as the US administered a record 4.6 million vaccines in a single day and Australia’s vaccination rollout continues to stumble.

Fauci is an idiot.

Trump thought so too. Anyone who calls him one, has seen a few.

Inciteful comment you two - trust you loaded up on Coinbase shares as well?

Not so. Cryptic comment, that’s all

He truly is. Idealist may be a better word though. He is basically saying boarders should stay closed till the world defeats COVID & all its variants. It just isn't going to happen. 2nd/3rd world countries have already given up/ are giving up the fight.

Yes it really is interesting times. Will the vaccine passport start a new apartheid? Will manufacturing move to industry 5.0 (components compiled locally - aka ghost kitchens) to resolve supply chain issues? Will inflation break the economy? Will China and Russia collude?


'Crypto crazy '

When cheap and easy money is thrown, what else does one expect.

What government and reserve bank are doing is experiment, which may help in short term but in long term is a receipe for disaster. A thougt of slight pain (which may be good as is cycle - not only economy but,, also in life - up and down) makes them shit in pants and start throwing cheap and easy money.

Next, pick a stone from the road and list it in stock exchange and......

So old Bernard died in prison.....


..and rose again on the third day as coinbase.

Ban bang goes the drum

Hahaha that gave me a chuckle :P

And his victims are still suffering.

For the ignorant, what is Coinbase, what does it do/produce to be worth that much?

Exchange - It converts worthless paper FIAT money that is being printed currently in huge amounts into digital Gold as a store of value for the holder.


digital gold
said with a straight face

ill save you the trouble
the problem we face is INCOMES
Not store of value
Otherwise we could all just stand round and stare at houses for a living

Save me from what trouble Ham? My retirement has been forward by 5 years, checking yacht designs today.

I'd say our problem isn't directly incomes, but more the impending threat of inflation and purchasing power on said incomes and everything else. Most smart people with cash at the moment are desperately trying to figure out where to stash it so it holds value. We're all speculating - property, gold, crypto, etc. The possible checklist to fit this purpose is: fungible, durable, portable, non-consumable, highly divisible, secure, easily transactable, scarce and sovereign. Most traditional assets only allow you to pick a few of those things on the list. Bitcoin allows you to pick all of them (except sovereign), but also adds decentralised and programmable to the mix. From there we all make up our minds.

Now there's a topic worth discussing!

What are you looking at?

Well decided to go wooden - plastic fantastics tough on the environment and bloody noisy.

If you think retirement is possible without fiat then you are in for a shock

A dollar today is worth how much next year?

Less ... and eventually the same as Bitcon

Every day you miss the boat Ham..but there is still time tomorrow, just show up and come over to the sunny side.

No Ham, it is not incomes.
The biggest problem the world has is there is sooooo much money floating around in the system all looking for a safe place to store it, even if they dont make any money on it!!
Currently there is $18 TRILLION in NEGATIVE yielding debt. Ie ill give you $100 today, but you only have to give me $98 back in 10 years time.
If that is not a broken system...

Bitcoin is going to eat that entire market. Why would you hold that when you can just buy Bitcoin and store it securely, and it doesn't cost you a thing. Not only that, but its purchasing power will actually increase over time.

Galloleous - I dont think you quite appreciate what Debt or Money actually is

The economy is an ENERGY system
"Incomes" rely on the surplus (energy) that the system can serve up each year
Money / wealth is just a claim on the AVAILABLE surplus that the Future may be able to serve up

So there is Money for africa as you've pointed out and more coming .... and its fast losing its buying power because the available surplus is not moving... So we are using leverage to fake incomes (temporarily)
The system is broken

BUT The underlying porblem is nothing to do with Money
Its to do with resource limits .... PHYSICS

Bitcoin can eat what it likes
But it wont change physics
And it it wants to remove leverage, then you find there really are no viable consumers

There is ~ $95 Trillion of nominal value in the stock market, another 10-11T in Gold and something equivalent in other scarce assets like real estate and art. That is all money that requires (A) a store of value and (B) a return. Bitcoin is currently setting the standard for providing both. Do the math.

Foreign exchange, except for crypto.

Not also that it was a direct listing, not an IPO. So the shares being traded are existing holders selling, not new shares for raising capital.

Hope. That’s all.

Brilliant irony
Maldoff dying as Cypto becomes mainstream
I think the big fella is having a laugh

Politicians of all major parties in NZ, be it national or labour, do not want to address the real problem of speculative demand in housing sector, so hide behind supply side of the problem only and come up with narrow knee jerk reaction / measures that will soon turn Auckland into a Ghetto city.

Of all the politicians, have to admit that Jacinda Arden was the first PM to accept that besides Supply, other major issue is Demand particularly Speculative Demand in housing crisis. Also accepted that while working on supply have to tackle the menance of speculative demand. Which is good as comming from the PM who if want can bring the change as acceptance is a first step in solving problem but does she has the determination, not to bow under pressure from lobbyist, bureaucrats and people surrounding her - so called experts and advsiors with vested biased interest as though she did announced a housing policy BUT ignored the main tool that will go a long way in curbing speculative demand and that is IO Loan.

Have doubts, if she has the wisdom to look beyond and not succumb to pressure and bullying despite having an opportunity and power to reset.

Talk about all the measures and policies as a remedy to solve housing crisis but misses the most important that could make a difference if acted upon :

So much of discussion on the housing issue and how to solve it...Act upon interest only loan ( more than DTI). If Mr Orr and Mr Robertson has any doubt, spell it out ( Any doubt = except excuse of wait and watch of affect of housing announcement) as this the only excuse that you will use to avoid and delay - waiting for this announcement till may is just playing with the time as your script is already ready and must has to be read Mr Orr.

Got out of ADA, upped my VET stake. Not feeling bad about it this week lmao.

In all seriousness I started to feel ADA had a lot of stuff priced into it already. I hope they do well though, any network which can improve on speed & fees brings crypto one step closer to a major tipping point.

VET will probably be one of my next buys. I'm not a gambler as such, just accumulating as I go.

VET has an interesting relationship with the self-generating VTHO - there's opportunities there for arbitrage as one rises faster than the other and you can go for a split strategy by playing them off against each other. I am 100% just gambling at the moment as I try to learn the basics and sticking to things I can see a decent real-world use for.

Your last sentence sums up my strategy. Looking at the projects and work behind the coins to decide whether they're long term hodl or just short term FUD.

Doing more research on Cardano -- but sticking with ETH for a while

Might look at ETH if it drops back below the 2k mark

If you're after a smart contract/utility token Tezos is a great buy at its current market cap of ~$5B. Has a number of working projects on chain, and could easy grow to 40B market cap range like DOT or ADA.

Got out of ADA, upped my VET stake.

Take your conversation to Twitter fan boys. Nobody knows what you're talking about and is not impressed that you drop the abbreviations of relatively obscure altcoins.

OK boomer

J.C. - the khal of crypto is back. Making edicts from his high horse.

Are the abbreviations threatening your low IQ?

Have been told today that major employers in Hawkes Bay just cannot get staff, labour market there is so tight. 2 examples: Napier branch of NZ's main road carrier and the Affco meatworks. This follows on from posts yesterday by 'Timmyboy' - an employer in Auckland - who advised as follows: "I can't get staff so I decided to walk down the road to other businesses to see if anyone knew anyone who wanted a job. They all said they were looking too. Desperate in fact."
I think everyone in NZ could be working 2 jobs and the Reserve Bank would still be saying that we are still a ways away from maximum exployment.

Anyone with equity to use as deposit and acess to interest only loan would be better of buying and selling ( flipping) houses as fast and easy money, much more than average wages that one would get after working hard and will be happy to pay capital gain tax as tax has also to be paid in wages so no difference except easy and fast money.

New New Zealand = Jacinda Arden has guaranteed that as long as, she is the PM will do everything ( or not do, if it supports house price growth) To support and promote the ponzi.

Interesting to see what the daily rate at Affco offer - probably the same as Wellington Bus drivers.

I see one of the major protestations of the bus drivers is having 'a week less annual leave' - that has a value per day so fair cop to them for sticking up for their presumably union-gained perks. But also, I'd love to know how many jobs come with annual leave over and above the four week stat minimum. Not many that I know of.

Having worked there for 3 months after leaving high school, I can tell you it's a life sentence. Poor pay, poor culture, ruthless owners, limited career opportunities and absolutely mind-numbing monotonous work.

We are in a 'post work' mindset now. Benefit levels are set to rise again at the next budget as a side-effect of the rampant inequality caused by the housing Ponzi. The incentives to work are just not there.

Growers 'devastated' as apples rot in Hawke's Bay orchards
Esther Taunton
16:05, Apr 07 2021

The apple industry is pleading for help as thousands of tonnes of fruit go to waste, devastating growers.
Due to a severe labour shortage, huge volumes of apples have been left on trees this season and the industry is predicting losses of more than $600 million to provincial economies.

Are these apple growers out there picking apples themselves in light of labour shortages? I'll admit I know nothing about the industry. But if it were my orchard, I'd be out 7 days a week picking as much as I could.

Am reading your comments around employment and it seem to be 'blame the employers' and 'the jobs are cr*p'. How many jobs paying $150,000 to be a beer taster are there going in the Hawkes Bay right now? We are rapidly losing sight of the real world. Never mind, thats another $600 Million down the tubes that the Reserve Bank can just 'print' for us I suppose.

So you expect people to choose a lower paid seasonal job for the good of the nation? I think you've lost sight of the real world. If you can't find workers, you're clearly not paying enough.

I hear that picking Kiwi fruit in Tauranga is paying $25 an hour so no wonder you cannot get workers. I have done fruit picking when I was 13, the pay was great back then but man it was hard work. You arrived and practically started picking in the dark, your fingers were so cold they didn't work 100% and it was all over by 1 or 2pm because it was so hot. Simply wouldn't work for that sort of pay these days. There is never a shortage of workers, if there is your simply not paying enough.

"We are rapidly losing sight of the real world." The one where you could afford to keep a roof over your head after working 40 hours a week? Long gone.

Yes I wondered that - always pictures of them standing around looking glum when I would just get on with picking!

Shows the foolishness of basing an industry around flying in cheap offshore workers every year.

100%. In fact, that sums up our economy.

Echoes my own experience of being contacted every week or two asking if I'd consider a new role. That said many appear to be trying to hire at pre-WuFlu wage levels but wage expectations to hire new staff have accelerated very rapidly. The market is just very tight, not helped by the fact many employers shed staff far too rapidly assuming that they'd be able to go to market and recruit.

The crazy thing is that here in Napier there appear to be a lot of people without work. Many motels are housing people who have nowhere to live and when I go for my daily walk I see people everyday who just seem to be loitering, not doing much of anything. Probably the difficulty in finding employees is complicated by the housing situation in Napier where prices are mad and rentals very hard to come by.

This flags a significant issue that doesn't get discussed a lot if at all. what doesn't get acknowledged in these debates is how many people in these areas are receiving an unemployment benefit. In this forum there are a few that mention it, but it is never wide spread. I suggest that this issue is grounds for a tiered benefit system.

Forget the 'poverty' complaints that are about benefit levels, but the first step in addressing poverty is to get a job. That then means the transition from benefit to work must be made easier, so people more money as they transition to work, but the income level requirements are higher. If people don't want to work, then their poverty is self inflicted.

See my comment above....All play and no work is a Capital Offence, cos the Taxpayer Rooked, fleeced and takes part in the Rental Mental Support of the Motel and Housing Support scheme. Lazy Boy, just like my Nephew and his Partner in crime, Housed in Motel at behest of Social to work, fired for lazing quids in...on the Benefit.

I read a post a few weeks back on a WINZ advice Facebook page about someone living in Hutt Valley who was told by WINZ they must accept a short term fixed job they were offered otherwise face sanctions. The job was somewhere around Wanganui, WINZ would pay for the cost of travel and accommodation while they were there, and yet this person was complaining that they'd be away from their family.

People don't want to work.

To be fair, WINZ need to be realistic. A 2 hour plus commute is unreasonable for a low paying job. But this flags the other part of the equation, jobs have to be available where they are needed. I would have turned them down too.

Oh, it gets discussed all the time.
On the one hand, there are people who are acculturated to being on a benefit, who are in a state of mind where the logistics of working seem impossibly difficult and exhausting.
On the other hand, there are many good reasons besides laziness why people don't move off benefits when there is work technically available. Things like the cost of childcare, transport difficulties, and benefit abatements can easily put people in a position where taking a job leaves them worse off. There are big gaps in what you might call 'soft infrastructure'. When you're not in a precarious position yourself -- when you have stability and savings -- it can be hard to understand these difficulties, like how a flat tyre at the wrong time can lead someone to thousands of dollars in high-interest loans, or why taking a job 'an hour away' might mean never seeing your family.

That is why I said people need to be able to get more money so the benefit thresholds need to be higher. I largely agree with you about this though.

The question then becomes why are there circa 6,000 people on unemployment in Hawkes Bay.

I would suggest
- education / training
- motivation
- engrained habit / family environment
- gang membership or aspirations - working a 40hr week would get in the way of the lifestyle

I guess it just points to the fact that no matter how many employment opportunities there will always be an portion of the population "left out" unless there is something done to structurally change whatever is stopping them from entering the workforce. That specifically should be the Govt focus. Not handing out more money with no KPIs attached.

With seasonal work for example.. yes its not a career for everyone but there are very limited excuses why physically this work cant be done by current unemployed. Get job references, shows work history, punctuality etc etc etc so people can move onwards and upwards. There is zero justification for long term structural unemployed (1yr+ with no period of work) in this market.

> Still in the US, Bernard Madoff, who was convicted for running the largest known Ponzi scheme in history

Appropriate that this should be mentioned immediately after the Coinbase IPO.

How is our own little vaccination program going, are we on track for reopening our little Sakoku of the southern seas? :-)

We're first in the queue ! World beaters in fact

It's a race, not a queue.


You lads having a laugh at crypto: We literally bent our entire economy to fit a model that undermined our own lifestyles, once the envy of the world. Dump on the moonshotters all you want, but the appeal of living within a system that is fundamentally broken and governed by unaccountable institutions is rapidly diminishing.

All I know is a have a much better chance of paying down my mortgage and having a comfortable life with crypto-gambling than I do with the professional qualification that cost me tens of thousands of dollars.

Amen to that. You cant ignore the future for ever.

Yep. Learned a harsh lesson with bitcoin. I've promised myself I won't miss out on whatever supplants it. With any luck, I already own some.

For everyone who thinks Bitcoin is a ponzi, please have a read and broaden your thinking:

You're having a laugh if you think many of the crypto naysayers are going to read that and change their position. Just like the RBNZ and the FED whose whole M.O. depends on inflation not happening, the naysayers M.O. depends on the housing merry-go-round continuing where we buy and sell houses to each other in our closed market system for ever-increasing amounts. At this point they're too invested to change their investment strategy, and the effort to liquidate assets is too great anyway. Only time and failure will change their minds unfortunately.

Oh absolutely, Im just trying to lead an many horses to water as I can......
Im always happy to provide research material to anyone who is interested, what they do from there is up to them.

so you are saying Bitcon will never need mass acceptance to be of use?
they will come round when Bitcon hits $24 million (fiats?)?
or when 1 Bitcon - 1 Bitcon?

If Bitcoin is not a Ponzi then why are we even needing to read articles that have been published about why its not a Ponzi, they shouldn't need to exist. I'm never going to get into Bitcoin because I have never needed to. There is only one secret about money I would like to pass on. Know when you have already made enough of it and quit working. Money can buy you many things but it cannot buy you time.

" I'm never going to get into Bitcoin because I have never needed to."

Ironically, I am getting into crypto because I feel I don't have a choice. Paid labour isn't going to pay the bills if I want to pass on anything but debt when I croak.

Well theres only articles refuting Bitcoin as a ponzi because uneducated people accuse it of being such...
And what is money you may ask? Well money is a claim on your time and energy. You work for 8 hours a day exchanging your labor for money in return. The purpose of this money is to act as a reserve of "time" so that you can exchange it for what you want when you want it.
Now when governments just print trillions of $$ out of thin air with no cost, this makes any money you hold (that you have worked your ass off for) worth less. So they are literally stealing your time.
No one can print more Bitcoin out of thin air. it has a set max supply and emission schedule. You control your portion of the network and no one can take that away from you by printing more.
Just stop for a second and think about what money is, and how certain people have easy access to it while others have to slave away for bugger all.

"No one can print more Bitcoin out of thin air. it has a set max supply "

Maybe just stop for a second and ask yourself
What if the US govt only operated using a "set supply" of money (a Bitcoin model)
No more deficits / stimulus packages
Do you think that might cause some issues on the main street? Like millions of "incomes" vaporising to nothing?
Im not the masses would be that happy

Exactly right ham - austerity is incoming whether we like it or not. We're reaching the natural conclusion of keynesian economic theory, because the current level of consumer demand is unsustainable. As PDK will tell you, we live in a finite closed system and the pedal is right to the floor. So try as the government might it can't actually magic up consumption anymore - we've hit the straps. Based on howe strauss theory we're right on schedule for this as the current seculum comes to an end. So we have to look at the emerging toolset that will define and underpin the next seculum. My pick is that energy production and consumption are going to be the direct drivers of this next 80-100 year cycle. Bitcoin is a network designed to capture, store and transmit the value of energy so it is perfectly poised to be the new underlying standard in this environment. This in turn will drive efficiencies in energy production and supply chains as electric everything takes the floor. The sooner we do away with deficits and debt that claws opportunity out of the future into an ever hungry present the better. In between there will be a lot of necessary hardship for a lot of people, as we pay down the debt deficits created over the last 40 years. But as always the human race will come out stronger, better and more resilient.

Oh and Galleleous - told you so :P

Random Question: What happens if a Bitcoin holder dies? I assume their passphrase etc are readily accessible by the executor of the will? If not, then *shrug* lost forever?

Just one of two things - Inheritance or quantative hardening

Did I not see something published here that 6 million Bitcoins are already "Lost" ? Also nothing to stop you just making Bitcoin 2.0 with more tokens, its already happening with all sorts of new crypto startups trying to get on the band wagon. Unfortunately your never going to convince me its anything but a Ponzi, it will either collapse or just get absorbed into a new digital currency. While its still linked to Fiat its doomed to fail as if and when a new digital reserve currency is announced the big Bitcoin holders will cash out and it will collapse in a rush to the exit door. Just imagine for a second there is no cross conversion to get your Bitcoin into a new digital currency and you have to move it to Fiat before a certain date, just the same as small denomination coins or $1 and $2 bank notes we used to have and your forced to cash it in before a certain date or its worthless ? Bitcoin is in a race against time and its success and how long it lasts depends on how much Fiat it can continue to suck in, sound familiar ?