Daily briefing for Friday, January 21, 2011

Daily briefing for Friday, January 21, 2011; Tight budgets; masked trends; bare confidence; Chinese growth

21st Jan 11, 7:15am by David Chaston

This is the last of the daily holiday briefings. Bernard Hickey's Top 10 returns Monday.

Belt tightening
Japanese housewives' 'secret savings' fell 18% to the lowest in three years in 2010 as slumping family incomes and rising prices for food and energy forced them to tap reserves, a survey shows.

Two halves
Yesterday's CPI data may have been as the experts expected, but a deeper dig shows some trends remain untamed, masked by the GST rise impact. The big increases were way above the GST effect, and these included the 'nontradables' of Health, up +7.2% pa, Education, up +5.7%, and Government charges up +6.9%. In the tradables sector, many items deflated despite the GST rise, and it was only food, petrol (and booze) that pushed this group up.

Starting slow
The first reading of consumer confidence in 2011 is out and it is mildly positive. But the lacklustre nature of it suggests consumers have returned from their holiday break just as cautious as before they took their break - and that suggests to me that 'saving' still has the priority over 'spending.

Listening
"The most important thing in communication is to hear what isn't being said."
- Peter F. Drucker

more below ...

		7 am		--- 52 week --
		Today	yesterday	high	low
		--------	--------	---------	---------
FX rates	NZ$1=US$	0.7568	0.7711	0.7964	0.6584
	NZ$1=AU$	0.7669	0.7698	0.8212	0.7408

Gold	in US$/oz	1,352	1,371	1,421	1,058
	in NZ$	1,786	1,778	1,877	1,507

Copper	in US$/t	9,788	9,560	9,788	6,091
	in NZ$	12,933	12,398	12,933	8,951

Crude oil	in US$/bl	89.76	92.01	91.91	70.15
	in NZ$	118.60	119.32	121.36	101.30

US Treasuries	30 yr bond	4.53%	4.56%	4.78%	3.61%

Dow	DJIA 30	11,807	11,816	11,850	9,614

10% growth, evenly through the year
"In 2010, faced with the complicated and volatile domestic and international economic environment, serious natural disasters and various grand challenges, the Central Party Committee and the State Council, uniting and leading the Chinese people of all ethnic groups, sized up the situation and made scientific decisions. They implemented earnestly the scientific outlook on development, sped up the transformation of economic development mode, strengthened and improved macro economic control and encouraged the performance of market mechanism. As a result, the achievements of countering the impact of global financial crisis were consolidated and expanded, and the national economy showed good momentum of development." This was the introduction to the Chinese announcement of their Q4 and 2010 GDP performance. And we all believe their numbers?

Recovery?
Sales of existing US houses jumped 12% in December to a 5.28 million annual rate, despite tough weather conditions. Buyers may also be taking advantage of cheaper homes. The median existing-home sales price decreased to US$168,800 from US$170,500 in the same month a year ealier. That's the equivalent of NZ$222,100, more than 30% less than the price for a median home in New Zealand.

Driving less
Americans are driving less, a trend that started in the early 1990's. The reasons are still up for debate.

No chart with that title exists.

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94 Comments

by Andrewj | 21st Jan 11, 7:46am 1295549160

China is buggered

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8272388/SocGen-crafts-strategy-for-China-hard-landing.html

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 8:13am 1295550809

And when the tanks roll into the centre of Beijing and the commodity prices have collapsed and the aussie export returns have gone pear shaped....what happens to NZ!....oooops

Just one black swan event waiting to happen. Throw in the financial money trickery and greater bullshit going on in Europe and let's not forget the political rorting and money printing games in the USA....plus the lying at the BoE about inflation under control....ooooeeeee we have us a time of turbulence ahead.

Take one disprin and lie down...it will all go away!

by Andrewj | 21st Jan 11, 8:12am 1295550720

Denninger

This is not going to be good...

UK inflation jumped in December with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rising to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in November.

Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation - which includes mortgage interest payments - rose to 4.8% from 4.7%.

So what happens when you can buy a short-term government bond over in the UK at a materially-higher yield than one here in the US?

Why, capital flies over there, right?

And what happens when capital leaves?

So do jobs.

So does industry.

So does national vitality.

Bernanke is cornered. I know, I know, we have massive commodity price increases.

But watch what happens when the insane liquidity games are forced out by the market.

We've been real good at exploiting our reserve currency status, and with that has come a paradox - we don't get the monetary inflation from these liquidity games - everyone else does.

But what comes next is what always comes next when you push the pendulum too far - it swings the other way, and we will not avoid the impact from that.

The pincers are closing folks, and it looks like I might have missed on my $100 oil call, if only because the peak came sooner than I thought, and the ability to sustain this game was short of my expectations.

View this entry with comments (registration required to post)

by Andrewj | 21st Jan 11, 8:18am 1295551130

Its all red

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/marketsummary.aspx

by Nicholas Arrand | 21st Jan 11, 8:57am 1295553424

"I am no longer as optimistic as I was – at least not until 2030." notes economic bear, (!) Albert Edwards, "Basing economic growth on loose monetary policy driving up asset prices is simply doomed to failure...."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards-i-have-been-wrong-%E2%80%93-i%E2%80%99ve-been-too-bullish

by Andy Rodgers | 21st Jan 11, 10:06am 1295557568

NA - That's a very good link.

by walker janette | 21st Jan 11, 9:08am 1295554107

See the Chinese are beefing up the military maybe they need to create employment and are getting ready for another Tianemem. Long live the pink revolution great experiment that it was!

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 9:31am 1295555508

Actually WJ you are more likely to see Chinese troops enter North Korea to bring to an end the stupidity going on there. A reunified Korea would be in Beijing's interests. The manpower likely to be lost would be seen as a win win by beijing and sold as China doing its bit to protect the world from an idiot regime.

by nerdlinger | 21st Jan 11, 9:40am 1295556000

A friend's Japanese MiL has been depositing money into his (and his wife's) NZ account because Japanese banks have been paying zero interest for years.

by muzza | 21st Jan 11, 10:01am 1295557266

Wolly, you actually make some sense here about China more likely than anyone to put Nth Korea out of it's misery, knew you had it in you!

At the golf club, hear that there is one (very good) golf course in Nth Korea, and there may be invitations issued this year for outsiders to go to play there. Mind you, evidently the course record (held by guess who?) is a tough one to beat as he blazed around 38 under par with 7 holes- in -one.

by spectreofdoom | 21st Jan 11, 1:56pm 1295571360

Actually, Wolly makes a surprising amount of sense in many of his posts - you just have to dig thru the fringe-lunatic theatrics that he loves to bury his info in !

I find myself to be an accidental Wolly fan :-)

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 2:19pm 1295572796

That'll be number one....

muzza playin golf in North Korea with 'Brilliant Comrade"...need big balls to win that game!

by muzza | 21st Jan 11, 6:52pm 1295589147

Would you like to caddy ? But you neeed to be on your best behaviour if you go

by Casual Observer | 21st Jan 11, 9:57am 1295557033

Does anyone have petrol consumption figures for NZ and are they declining? We have commented in the last few months how many fewer cars there seem to be on the roads after 10pm on the weekends.

by Andrewj | 21st Jan 11, 10:16am 1295558160

Its a couple of years old

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9d8147cc-f81d-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html#axzz1Bc27Gxiw

Demand for oil will fall this year at the fastest rate since 1982, the International Energy Agency has forecast.

by steven | 22nd Jan 11, 10:03pm 1295687034

Interesting comment, I cant see what the retort by the FT etc is...

India and China and putting too many cars on the roads, they are using more than enough to counter-balance developed countries using less....If the IEA are to be believed the oil price must drop significantly as well....the only conceivable reason for that to happen is that a major economic, world wide depression happens first......

This is a bit of a chicken and egg situation....if oil continues to rise it will indeed trigger another dip........if its as we go now there is no way the demand will "naturally" drop unless India and China cuts back....which hey wont unless a huge economic anti-stimulus, decimates their economies....

In the past most of the time I used think the IEA were dorks....now I wonder if in fact that do get peak oil etc but are gagged....

2011 looks to be a shinner............welcome to peak oil........

regards

by Andrewj | 21st Jan 11, 10:07am 1295557627

Co, I saw figures for the States when I was there and they were back to 1990 consumption levels I suspect we are going the same way.

by Didge | 21st Jan 11, 10:17am 1295558268

Meanwhile our world's most pressing problem starts to impact in most dramatic ways.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12241692

by Kate | 21st Jan 11, 10:20am 1295558400

Great - the major minders "get it" regards the exponential function and they've written a fairytale with very colourful graphics to keep the growth myth alive;

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/total-global-debt-has-double-over-200-trillion-2020-preserve-economic-growth

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jan 11, 1:31pm 1295569870

Kate - 2010 has been declared the hottest year on record. One-in-200-year floods (read, forever) in our nearest neighbour, Pakistan, Brazil and Sri Lanka. Record weather events everywhere.

Still think Local Govt shouldn't work out where to put the sand-bags?

by Kate | 21st Jan 11, 1:46pm 1295570760

:-) - I am amazed that Australian citizens aren't up in arms about the failures of LG planning over there. The real question is how many millions too many in population do you reckon inhabit that continent?

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jan 11, 2:31pm 1295573460

Yep - how many house developments were allowed below the 1974 flood-line?

Wonder if Hugh P lobbied there?

I think 6-10 million too many in Aus, and 200 million to the north eyeing them off in envy.

Wonder what Brash thinks (wrong word) now? Catch them up? My better half hails from Toowoomba, we chose here. No regrets.

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 2:40pm 1295574043

The long term flood/drought answer on the east coast of aus has to be bloody big very deep holes. I'm talkin 10 square miles and 300 yards deep. Dig the sods in the right place and divert the flood flow in a big wet to fill em up....use the lakes as recreation spots and for irrigation in the big dry. Simple aint it.

by Kate | 21st Jan 11, 2:51pm 1295574678

Wasn't it just one such 'big hole' that had to be drained onto Brisbane, Wolly?

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 2:59pm 1295575170

Nah....in a few months likely as not they will be as dry as a bone and praying for rain again...and where did all the friggin water go...down the creek into the sea...sodding waste.

Every shire and whatever ought to be required to dig a bleeding big hole...no reason why they can't do it...fix em up with ramps and stuff so when they do fill up..it's boating time.

74 was how long ago...how many holes could have been dug...heaps I reckon. The land owners could share in the ownership of the water collected in a flood and by that means be compensated...the mines could help out with the machinery and so forth.

by iconoclast | 21st Jan 11, 3:08pm 1295575710

For the record: The problem is local councils are over-run by green tree-huggers, tree-changers who prevent clearing of waterways, creeks, rivers, dams etc of debris, and forest floors are not allowed to be cleared of fuel which contributes to extreme fires.

excerpt from BusinessSpectator: another example of misplaced, political jumping-of the-gun, the result of ignorance on the part of those making such proposals. Building levees is not a solution. (See Bligh launches Qld flood inquiry, January 18.) Most of the inundation areas in the low lying downstream suburbs was remote from the river. It the result of back-flow through the drowned storm water system. The existing river bank levees were not topped by floodwater in such cases and overflow directly from the river was not the cause of flooding. Non-return valves on the storm water system would have prevented upwards of 90% of the flooding in such areas. A simple engineering solution seems to be being overlooked by the Premier and her like and the building of levees while ignoring the storm water system flow back will only increase the flood risk and consequence. I live in New Farm and saw exactly what happened. It all came via back-flow from the storm water system. Not one drop of water came from the topping of the riverbank by flood waters and the resultant direct overflow from the Brisbane River! Lloyd Taylor 18 Jan 2011 2:01 PM

by Kate | 21st Jan 11, 3:37pm 1295577424

And of course stormwater management is one of the three "W"'s (water, wastewater, waste) of local government - so in their core responsibility area they failed miserably. Stormwater infrastructure just ain't sexy - and hence (my guess), it's a weak priority of LG both here and in Oz. Much more popular to campaign on the building of another sports arena, ice rink, aquatic centre or art gallery. But with these non-return valves, where would all that excess stormwater have been diverted to? The rivers? Then of course, the stopbanks aren't adequate.

No matter which way you engineer it - I'm just thinking there might be too many people in harms way?

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 3:59pm 1295578774

I didn't know about the poor engineering..I should have guessed...still the big holes are an idea worth digging into.

by iconoclast | 21st Jan 11, 4:14pm 1295579646

For the $20 billion clean-up and restoration costs they could and should build a giant inland canal the size of the Suez and re-direct the water inland instead of out to sea. When the water is not running, and it dries out, they send a couple of bulldozers and drag lines down it and recover all the top-soil.

by Nicholas Arrand | 21st Jan 11, 4:25pm 1295580352

That makes too much sense! "...The canal proposal is the most simple of the land-based proposals - it is merely a channel dug from the Kimberley to Perth - but it has a number of drawbacks.", just a different side of the wide, brown land......

http://www.abc.net.au/water/stories/s1577548.htm

by Kate | 21st Jan 11, 4:27pm 1295580453

But if not draining out to sea - how do you get the water to run uphill in your inland canal?

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 4:37pm 1295581035

How did this yabba manage to move from the east coast to the west coast?

by Neville C | 21st Jan 11, 6:38pm 1295588330

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCjdRVlKyK4&NR=1

They already have some holes they are filling up with water!

by Kate | 21st Jan 11, 2:52pm 1295574732

Exactly.

Yeah, I was guessing it was carrying likely double the sustainable number - and then given it's a desert, even that might be generous.

I think NZ is lucky to be an island where these major weather systems don't have the same prolonged build up period over land. Doubt we'll ever see that kind of widespread socio-economic devestation from flooding... I'm guessing landslides are more a worry where the faster/heavier downpours are concerned - alot of property perched on hillsides.

by steven | 22nd Jan 11, 10:50pm 1295689826

Lots of other extreme events from the effects of AGW....the comments ive seen on NZ is west way wetter, east way dryer....either will devistate your crops...........Im wondering at what point insurance becomes impossible......then you cannot hedge.....

NZs population is also a worry....4million ppl who cant feed themselves except by driving to the supermarket...let alone OZ....or say the UK......

regards

by steven | 22nd Jan 11, 10:40pm 1295689239

How can you plan for a 200 year event? You cannot its just about in-conceivable....and guess what if the Pollies had gone to the voter and said we are going to spend money to protect you against an event outside the realms of probability, who would have voted for them?

17million in OZ? I dont think thats too many, but its hard to say when you damage the thing that you need to keep you alive, anyway....the problem is the many millions just over the water....who will migrate when things get tough.....kind of like the great swimmer being pulled under by a drowning multitude....

regards

by FCM | 21st Jan 11, 10:40am 1295559656

Yeap and it will all come back to Shelter and Food, thats why countries that only produce material things will struggle , world population will double, environment impacts will wipe out huge amounts crops etc and those countires that can supply it will come out of financial crises better that the rest.Can't see commodity prices falling anytime soon.

by Number 6 | 21st Jan 11, 10:51am 1295560313

@FCM: If environmental impacts wipe out huge amounts of crop production, how is the population going to double? I'd pick you're right about the environment, and that will lead to a halving of the population?

by FCM | 21st Jan 11, 11:05am 1295561120

because people are living longer..and all the predictions are that the population will double..with the advances in the medical world a lot of the issues that affected past population growth are not around (i.e we didnt get a massive death toll from bird flu- twenty years ago we may of) so unless some new virus developes to wipe out a few hundred million the thing that will affect people the most will be Food and water shortage.

by Number 6 | 21st Jan 11, 11:12am 1295561573

Precisely. At it's most basic, if you're about right and food and water decline ( environmental impact) then, half the population will starve to death or at least go into non-replication. That's why Western societies are in terminal decline. That leaves the developing world, to be most at risk of the foremention 'starvation'. I just can't see that you can have both food decline and population increase; that's all :)

by steven | 22nd Jan 11, 11:01pm 1295690486

Food is oil......we will be producing less oil every year within the decade....therefore the population will halve if not 1/3rd in 20 years and not double. So we wont see a few 100millions die out but billions, Im hoping NZ will survive that.......

regards

by Andrewj | 21st Jan 11, 10:56am 1295560585

I find it hard to believe that food will be in short supply. Get in a train and travel across the plains of Hungry, mile after mile of flat land waiting for technology to increase production many times. World population won't double, the debate is going to be about energy everything else is a smokescreen.

Its the energy needed from fertiliser ,plastics to diesel thats going to get us in trouble.

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jan 11, 1:27pm 1295569671

AJ.- I presume you last sentence means 'the energy for' fertiliser, plastics and diesel. Add roading networks, aircraft and shipping. Add alkathene pipes, add electricity (70% of the world's electric power comes from coal).

That is what will make food be in short supply. Food is energy, but we use fossil fuels to make it and deliver it - essentially we are eating oil. A finite resource.

Hence the Permaculture movement, hence Transition Towns. Hence folk like me chasing down the energy efficiency and self-sufficiency path.

I love that "Plains of Hungry" quote, though. One for Bernard's 'best of the day' award.

by Kate | 21st Jan 11, 1:52pm 1295571120

but pdk - on the self-sufficiency ideal - how do you plan to protect your private property rights (i.e. harvest)?

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jan 11, 2:21pm 1295572893

Kate - With appropriate force at the time.

We're a species, albeit one at the end of the food-chain. It's called survival of the fittest. I may well go down in the process, though, which will annoy me heaps.......

We could have gotten there as a mature society, but I reckon it's too late for that. Listen to the Finlay Macdonald thing on RNZ the other night - Tanzos, Salmon and Terry -

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/lecturesandforums/smarttalk2010

They mentioned that Bill McKibbon and David Suzuki (and others) reckon it's 'game over for a species'.

After 30 plus years of debating, I agree with them.

Too many middle-class deniers in the western world, too many fundamentalists everywhere, too many short-sighted and selfish ditto, and too many mouths in the third world.

Read the 'Limits to Growth', Club of Rome, and the 10-year updates.

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 2:31pm 1295573499

"At the end of the food chain"......hmmmmmm......that 4.5 metre White Pointer off the east coast beaches has something to say about that DPK...borrow a surfboard and paddle out to spread the word!

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jan 11, 2:35pm 1295573738

Wrong habitat.

That said, I spend a lot of time in/on the water.

More chance of being wiped out by a pissed pensioner in a camper, methinks :)

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 2:44pm 1295574256

Oh so we are not at the end of the food chain afterall....thought not...have a feeling viruses are likely to survive long after Humans go the way of the Neanderthals.

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jan 11, 6:50pm 1295589041

WEhen were you last eaten, Wally? :)

by Kate | 21st Jan 11, 3:10pm 1295575845

With appropriate force at the time.

Rather futile me thinks - you can't guard your fruit trees, chook house and veggie garden 24/7. And would you really shoot at a few young kids over an apple that likely hasn't even got to fully ripened stage?

Which is where having access to ongoing fiat currency - money in the bank - seems to me a necessary direction/goal. So, the self-sufficiency question to me becomes, how does one derive guaranteed self-made income that isn't an edible commodity which is likely to be the target of petty thieves? And the best guess I've come up with is having excess energy to feed back into the national grid - so you can afford to go to the mint (i.e. grocery store).

The alternate being to be food self-sufficent in a (very) remote area, I suppose.

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jan 11, 7:37pm 1295591872

Kate - What an interesting enigma of a comment.

I don't advocate force, but I think it is the inevitable end-game, if society breaks down.

I never mentioned kids and apples - my dad remembers the raids on his grannys 'farm' 20 km from a city, in the Depression. They were in groups, hungry, and adult.

Fiat money???????? After you posted that zerohedge link? How can you?

Fiat money is in terminal trouble. The promisory note is for a supply of goods and/or services in the future. Growing exponentially, as you link points out. Even at this point, the future cannot supply the expected redemption of the held promisory notes, and has already gone into irretrievable overshoot.

You don't believe that horseshit about the sub-prime being a cause, do you? Any individual of country could have traded their way out of that cul-de-sac, if there had been unlimited resources, particularly the key one - cheap energy.

Energy peaked in real (actual oomph=per-barrel) terms in 2005. From there on, overshoot, non underwriteable. Note that global longevity, increasing yoy forever, peaked in 2007. No coincidence.

So fiat money can't maintain the myth, and the first 'run' will be the last. Unless the debt is socialised as per Govt subsidies, in which case we get sovereign defaults. At the end of the day, 'wealth' in the bank, is only electronic 1's and 0's. Not underwritable real-time. You want to put your faith in that? Good luck.

If society holds together, your grid idea is a goodie - energy is wealth, 100%. I'm not convinced the fiscal system will stay intact enough, but at least you are energy-sufficient.

I suspect it will be community/village level co-operation (that's what we have around here)

Gonna be an interesting year - shortages of coal, onions, wheat, rice, tuna......... gonna get a whole lot more expensive to live....

by Kate | 21st Jan 11, 8:26pm 1295594816

pdk - I'm just guessing (or would "hoping" be a better word) but I imagine a Bretton Woods II will have to come along at some stage - and existing fiat will be converted to whatever the new, possibly global fiat is - maybe it will be all electronic fiat (as that would do away with the cash economy which would improve governance, or the ability of government's to govern/tax and redistribute more equitably).

But while all the powers that be work on sorting that out - cash in the bank, ongoing income and access to what credit might be available will be pretty important.

The other "guess" (your notion of end-game) ... anarchy rulz and a political/economic elite bunker themselves in with military protection from the masses.

As for community/village cooperation - I'd also like to be a utopian - and indeed some days I am.

by powerdownkiwi | 22nd Jan 11, 10:50pm 1295689849

Kate - I don't think it's utopian. It's just a fair guess that what worked on the way up, will work on the way down. It'll be a case of 'local'.

Yes, there will have to be a new Bretton Woods (a call I made a while back in a little op/ed:

http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/opinion/34180/hard-times-here-stay

But it won't make up for the fact that only the really available, is really available.

Nor for the fact that there are 7 biilion where there can only be 2 billion long-term (listen to the Kim Hill / pengion lady re-run on Nat Radio this morning.).

The exponential and the linear are always divergent - it's a bugger.

by KW John | 22nd Jan 11, 11:59pm 1295693998

PDK - any thoughts on the Desertec proposals / technology / viability?

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jan 11, 9:02am 1295812977

yes - they'll have to be quick. and it won't be enough.

It's a matter of using the remaining oil, to both set up replacement energy supplies/sources, and somehow mitigate the impact (climate change) of the burning of that oil in the process.

Big ask.

Makes the 'continue business as usual / growth' mantra look a bit sick.

by steven | 23rd Jan 11, 7:16am 1295720196

"anarchy rulz and a political/economic elite bunker themselves in with military protection from the masses."

They have to come out to get food.....ppl pay tax with little arm twisting today, will that be the case with anrachy? I dont see why.....so the military are either going to have to become tax/%food collectors for the "elite" are not going to do to well.........and our military are small and reliant on technology and oil........

Wealth when measured in money is worthless if no one wants to sell food....

"village cooperation" This has worked for thousands of years, Long term it will again........ideas like libertarianism where its every man for himself and "we'll live in the hills and live off the land" wont ....IMHO....not medium and long term.

regards

by Kunst | 22nd Jan 11, 11:02am 1295647337

Brian Gaynor’s last sentence in today’s NZHerald: It is important for us to realise that our assets will be more vulnerable to foreign predators if we remain a slow-growth economy.

Full article:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10701173

I think it is much more important to ask the question how we grow. In many countries growth comes with enormous costs, especially for the environment respectively taxpayers – a vicious uneconomic cycle. Unfortunately New Zealand is no exception - growth should be related to quality and sustainability.

by Gibbering Baboon | 22nd Jan 11, 11:24am 1295648693

You are a communist.

We should allow anyone from anywhere to do whatever they like in New Zealand.

That's the road to riches.

by Kunst | 22nd Jan 11, 11:33am 1295649187

Today’s attack of Mr. GB (Gigantic Brain) is just another sign, how the current economic situation can badly affect people.

by mark.s | 22nd Jan 11, 12:15pm 1295651757

If you had to give yourself a political description Kunst what would it be?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 22nd Jan 11, 12:34pm 1295652845

Walter of the Monster Raving Loony Party : It is sad that Kiwis go to vote later this year , without heeding the advice of Brian Gaynor or his ilk . ...... The bribes from Nanny Labour or from Bail-You-Out National are all that will be fresh in voters' minds .

by Kunst | 22nd Jan 11, 1:16pm 1295655404

Mark – I don’t accept current political systems as such and would never fit in one. The introduction of MMP was good, but the political system needs further reformation.

We should learn and judge on 100 capable individuals representing our nation not on parties. I’m sick to hear left/ right – blue/ red/ capitalist/ communist/ - that rhetoric destroys a lot of progress - real development. As we are experiencing in parliament – just daily Kindergarten - Gummy and some others are classical - just wasting time - timewasters going around the circle !

By the way in my team a number of ministers would have already lost their jobs, because of underperforming – in order to do that - get rid of party clusters.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 22nd Jan 11, 3:25pm 1295663144

Well excuse me !.... But I said that MMP was a crack-pot choice , from the get go . STV is the best system for NZ ............. I shall go and sulk now , Walter ...... you big meanie ! ....

.... Know any good snake soup places in Kowloon ?

by Kunst | 22nd Jan 11, 4:14pm 1295666072

Oh - come on "StalinGummy", you with your hidden nursery growing political stuff – pure and unspoiled greenies into radical red tomatoes and extreme red strawberries.

by steven | 23rd Jan 11, 7:22am 1295720542

While simply not true....if thats the defination you wish to use, ie not accepting restrict productive endevours to sustainable and NZers....well by all means I'll sign up to be a "commie" in your terms........

The reality is the real face of communism is not better and arguably worse than capitalism but not by much....neither are sustainable....both exploit rerserves that took a long time to build up and have done so in 200 years....

regards

by Andrewj | 21st Jan 11, 2:06pm 1295571978

Ok Im a dumb arse, ive got 14 people staying in the house + 3 of my own kids.

by FCM | 21st Jan 11, 11:21am 1295562060

Yeah thats why before you starve to death you going to try and get your hands on some food, or the country that has food are'nt you, so those countries that can produce food well, i.e NZ ( thats why commodity prices are sky high- chinese want to buy our land / farms/ forests) are going to be sort after, as you are going buy a loaf of bread before a TV screen. You are right population is to increase but at slower rate, but still increase to 9 billion by 2042, currently around 6 billion.

by Number 6 | 21st Jan 11, 11:32am 1295562730

Oh! I see. You mean like Japan did in '37; when it invaded China to get it's hands on their resources and Germany did likewise in Europe. That wasn't the least bit good for the inhabitants of the invaded countries. So I hope your not suggesting that New Zealand is likewise' blessed'. Economic invasion, today's warfare, is likely to have the same result for a nations residents.

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 11:47am 1295563648

Why pick on just Tojo and the wee corporal number6...moving in on others has been a part of human behaviour from the time we took a fancy to the Neanderthal's private domain.

by muzza | 21st Jan 11, 12:42pm 1295566962

Japan made its first move during the Depression in 1931 into Manchuria, which it renamed Manchuko

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 2:35pm 1295573721

So what muzza...!

by muzza | 21st Jan 11, 4:21pm 1295580076

Height of the Depression when Japan made it's move. Oh and it's actually a 'fact', that naughty 4 letter word starting with f.

by Wolly | 21st Jan 11, 4:44pm 1295581450

Who gives a rat's muzza...read the thread of comments....using Tojo and the wee corporal is a tad selective isn't it...when you consider the whole of recorded human history....

by muzza | 21st Jan 11, 6:54pm 1295589243

Really?

by Malarkey | 21st Jan 11, 10:51pm 1295603492

It's a Baby Boomer thing. Recorded history began when their dad came home from the war. Nothing happened before the war, especially not a Great Depression. WW2 was the beginning of all time, and nothing matters but the lifetime and lifespan of the Baby Boomers.

It's why they feel no remorse about screwing up the national economy, and life in general, for any who survive them.

by Storeman Norman | 23rd Jan 11, 10:51am 1295733072

Hah, another boomer conspiracist! ma·lar·key

/məˈlɑrki/ Show Spelled[muh-lahr-kee]

–noun Informal .

speech or writing designed to obscure, mislead, or impress; bunkum: The claims were just a lot of malarkey.

by Malarkey | 23rd Jan 11, 11:11am 1295734278

I'm a relative of the PM.

by Storeman Norman | 23rd Jan 11, 11:41am 1295736113

Hah, but you were clearly born to a more virtuous generation.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 22nd Jan 11, 2:11am 1295615519

Can you have a " height of the depression " ? ........ I thought it would be a " depth of the depression " thing ............. Hey Bernard , you're the resident gloomsterisationaliser par excellence ...... Which is correct ?

[.......... By the way BH , what the feck have the Yanks done to your hair , dude ? ....... That is seriously a bogus dome , and I've seen some pugly ones .......... Mine , for starters . ]

by muzza | 24th Jan 11, 9:28am 1295814506

OK, might depend what school you went to NZ or the Phillippines

by Gummy Bear Hero | 24th Jan 11, 12:01pm 1295823697

..... Rangiora High School ! ........... Which explains how I come to know so much about depression .

by steven | 23rd Jan 11, 7:26am 1295720790

Im willing to bet the population will be less than that today.....could be half. You miss that most of the world eats oil....oil production will be considerably lower by 2042 than it is today AND some of that food land will be used for bio-fuels....thats looking like a lot of dead ppl to me....

regards

by FCM | 21st Jan 11, 11:51am 1295563885

Yeap exactly in a more sophisticated method than a war..i.e take over the core assets and control the supply chain from farm to end user. I think you already seeing it in our dairy products..why supply the product the local residents when you can get more for it from other nations who need it for there growing population.

by steven | 23rd Jan 11, 7:35am 1295721329

At present yes, I dont think you even have to take over control.....just off a better price for say fish and let the business ppl do the rest. NZ is in the middle, the developed nations are all more wealthy (paper wealth) at present so can pay more than NZers....we on the other hand can pay more than the developing world....so a pecking order............However what is their wealth based on? illusion? financial ponzie schemes looks like it....so they will get poorer....they have in many cases no more oil or coal....they have to buy it in....

Where the voter/Govn continunes to allow ppl to sell abroad.........Russia stopped grain exports, Thailand and India did rice in 2008/2009?....ample examples of such action.

One of the reasons I am so against free trade agreements is you are obliged to trade even if as a soverign nation you do not wish to......

regards

by Neville C | 21st Jan 11, 12:05pm 1295564700

"by Casual Observer | 21 Jan 11, 9:57am New Does anyone have petrol consumption figures for NZ and are they declining? We have commented in the last few months how many fewer cars there seem to be on the roads after 10pm on the weekends." The MED has all the data on this. Basically petrol consumption is flat but Diesel has risen (doubled) since 1974 http://www.med.govt.nz/templates/ContentTopicSummary____20512.aspx See Chart2

by Casual Observer | 21st Jan 11, 8:49pm 1295596161

Thanks NC. Not surprised about the diesel. We have two diesel vehicles now, no petrol ones, so I guess diesel cars may account for some of it.

Diesel cars are more popular now but what most people don't realise is that the more economical your vehicle is the more you pay for diesel thanks to road user charges being based solely on a per km travelled. The really efficient diesels can run your diesel fillup costs close to, and depending on price differential, more than filling up on petrol.

by Andrewj | 21st Jan 11, 4:09pm 1295579388

Maybe we should do what the Chinese are doing

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8271203/Strong-China-…

by Nicholas Arrand | 21st Jan 11, 4:52pm 1295581965

It's Friday @ nearly 5pm ! I'm either missing Christov's weekly joke, or having Shiraz withdrawal symptoms....Christov ?...

by Casual Observer | 21st Jan 11, 8:42pm 1295595723

That's the problem when you live in the country Aj - the urbanites see you as a free 'holiday camp'. ;-) And of course food is not a cost to us country folk at all - according to them! :-)

by KW John | 22nd Jan 11, 3:11pm 1295662273

"Commonwealth trade and investment now accounts for over 20% of the world total and there is the potential to increase this share further.

"There are huge economic benefits to be gained and Britain must capitalise on these opportunities."

---------------------------------

Addressing a room full of ministers and other dignitaries at the Maritime Museum in downtown Auckland, Mr Hague said the relationship between our countries provided an enormous economic opportunity and encouraged the sharing of our economic links.

"New Zealand is a hotbed of innovation and is known as such in the UK. That must need some foreign direct investment to commercialise some of the great ideas and the UK, as the leading global finance centre, can provide some of the capital to do so.

"New Zealand's world leading food technologies coupled with the strength of the UK's retailers can also be a formidable combination."

Mr Hague also spoke of the need to make the Commonwealth more relevant and effective.

"I do think we can make more of the Commonwealth, I do think it is time to make more of a remarkable network of 54 nations and 31 percent of the world's population and all of the inhabited continents of the globe and we can set out to do so together."

------------------------------------

God save our.......

by steven | 23rd Jan 11, 7:44am 1295721892

So you give us worthless $ raised by debt and take.....take...take..........greed in action....

regards

by speckles | 23rd Jan 11, 1:48pm 1295743734

oh I see we could be handy once more..

by iconoclast | 23rd Jan 11, 1:44pm 1295743445

[quote] Powerdownkiwi 21 Jan 2011: "You don't believe that horseshit about the sub-prime being a cause, do you?" ... had there been unlimited cheap energy. [endquote]

Powerdownkiwi .. the first person I have read in 3 years who has got it .. here is my support ..

Some coal-face economics written in Mid-2009

The great global financial crisis

Nearly 2 years have gone by. Millions of hectares of space have been devoted to it in the print media and zillions of electrons in the electronic media. All the media-savvy academic economists have strutted their stuff. A number of documentaries have been produced. The main theory is it was the fall of Lehman Brothers and CDO's based on sliced and diced sub-prime mortgages. .. They're all wrong ..

The oil shocks

The first happened in 1972. The second happened in 1978. Massive inflation followed each shock. The third happened in 2007 without inflation. A colleague and his partner both drive six cylinder cars. They drive to work separately. Not a huge distance. About half an hour. Their combined monthly petrol bill was $800. When oil peaked at $150 per barrel their monthly petrol bill was nearly $1500. That was nearly $700 of discretionary spending power sucked out of their monthly household budget. Approximately $8000 per year. After tax.

American households are hocked up to the eyeballs. Mortgages are refinanced regularly to extract equity from the home for newer and bigger and better cars. And holidays. American commuters travel long distances and use SUV's. Petrol doubled in price from $2 per US galllon to $4 per US gallon. The monthly increase in fuel costs sucked the oxygen out of the economy. Consumers had no choice but to pay the higher fuel bills. So they stopped paying their mortgages. Which started the flood of mortgage defaults. Which triggered the sub-prime crisis. Which triggered the CDO's. Which triggered the fall of Lehman Brothers. If oil had not gone up to $150 per barrel Lehman Brothers would not have collapsed. That crocodile in the swamp would still be there today. The problem now, today is, as the USD falls lower the cost of oil to the US consumer is heading back up. If the USD collapses the price of oil in america will head back up to $150.

Snookered

The US has to keep the USD up in order to hold the price of oil down. The FED has to keep interest rates down to help the US consumer. But the low rates are hurting the USD. Cant have it both ways. Another bout of oxygen starvation.

Now in 2011 The FED has done the opposite, has deflated the USD, the cost of oil is back up at $100 pb and heading north again ..

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jan 11, 9:08am 1295813323

http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/opinion/34180/hard-times-here-stay

note the date :)

There's nothing like ligic, fact and physics.

These economist-followers are just the same rabble who burned witches, thought the earth was flat, and that there was a hereafter-place. Same mindset required, ie not much.

good to know a fellow (HPV?) traveller.