David Chaston details the key news in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, with more on the euro cisis and the Greek debt aftershocks lurching to a big one, its Lehman moment. This is having a local impact on the big four Aussie banks who are finding investors like their debt offerings - they are a seen as safer than their global peers - this despite two major credit ratings agencies downgrading them last month.
The charging yesterday of Timaru accountant, Allan Hubbard, on 50 counts of fraud capped a year-long investigation, and may be the first in a busy series of announcements by the SFO and FMA over the next two weeks. These charges relate to Hubbard's Aorangi Securities, and further action is yet to be decided for related-party loans at South Canterbury Finance. His supporters are remaining staunch.
In Wellington, property developer and Phoenix-owner Terry Serepisos is sinking deeper into it, this time a court has ruled against him in a $1 million claim - which he did not oppose - and bankruptcy may be near for the embattled Apprentice star.
There was little action in the currency markets overnight with the NZ$ opening this morning at 80.84US cents and the TWI at 69.9. However, the oil price fell to under US$92/barrel but is now back up to over US$93.60. Gold is higher, back to where it was at the beginning of the month, and the Dow is higher, back over 12,000.
Later this week we will get the data on our first quarter GDP and our current account balance. You will recall our December quarter current account was in surplus, due to strong exports and the impact of receiving reinsurance payments for the Christchurch earthquake. Well, Statistics NZ has had a re-think about those re-insurance receipts - and yesterday it announced that it will be treating them as items in our Capital Account, rather than our Current Account. This change in treatment has the support of the UN, the World Bank, and the IMF. From here on, the money flowing into New Zealand from re-insurance payments won't be a reason for good Balance of Payments news.
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[UK] Treasury ministers have admitted that the Government is drawing up contingency plans for a Greek bankruptcy after being warned by a former foreign secretary that the euro “cannot last”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8588047/Treasury-plans-for-Greece-to-go-bust.htmlAll I can say is wow....
"In an emergency debate, senior MPs from all parties demanded that Britain stand aside from a new rescue package for Greece and push for the country to leave the euro."
regards
Time for Plan B
How the Euro Became Europe's Greatest Threathttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,769329,00.html
There's a lot of behind the scenes planning going on in Berlin at the moment...
Yes this is one show that has run far too long........a quick painfull end to the Greek Tragedy will not rule out the possibility of contagion...
A slow coma condition requires the family to make a decision....yet all the while they are exposed......
Well, Statistics NZ has had a re-think about those re-insurance receipts - and yesterday it announced that it will be treating them as items in our Capital Account, rather than our Current Account.
Better late than never, but what does that mean for last quarters current account? Does it change from an exceptionally rare surplus back to the traditional deficit?
Hi Colin, yes it does. From a small surplus to a deficit again. Didn't have time to write up yesterday, and the next BoP release is tomorrow:
Here's Westpac's comment yesterday when they changed their forecast for tomorrow's balance of payments:
"Stats NZ today released a paper announcing changes to the way it has classified insurance and reinsurance flows in the national accounts data. Insurance and reinsurance flows relating to the Canterbury earthquakes will now be recorded in the Capital Account and not the Current Account. This has no implications for markets (it is a change of accounting treatment rather than any change in fundamental view) but our forecast for Thursday's March quarter current account deficit is now -4.7% of GDP (previously +0.2%). We expect other forecasters will make similar revisions."
Alex, was it deliberately manipulated?
yeah, once again the question is:
"Incompetence or spruiking / manipulation?"
Thanks Alex.
Our current account is in my view the best single indicator of how our country is doing. And it is clearly not doing well despite high commodity prices and agriculture having its best season in decades.
Full marks to Statistics NZ for providing us with this much clearer revised presentation of our position.
Revising our current account position will not make this a good week for government. I doubt they will be happy, and I expect the spin masters to be putting in overtime.
As I watch the news bulletin on TV1 this morning, protests in the streets of Greece against proposed sales of state owned assets......I'm thinking to myself, hmmm that sounds familiar. Well, the sale of state assets bit. Not the protest bit. Kiwis to apathetic for any of that.
Not related but worrying:
The US has a rising problem with their Nuclear Plant in Nebraska. There were some reports last week on the internet, but now total news blackout.
http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Inter…
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/06/nebraska-nuclear-reactor-flooded.html
Here's good information.
Well, not good information actually.
Bankrupcy is the new path to freedom in the new millenium;
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0507/1224296372123.html
I think the Greek populace knows this. I believe the average Greek citizen is not so much against austerity - they are against the EU dictate regarding their austerity.
The great political leader(s) of this millenium will be the one who leads the walkout which results in the folding of the present deck of cards. Only then can democracy be restored. It would be entirely appropriate for Greece to take up this place in history.
I wonder if those countires that lead the way into bankruptcy may well lead the climb to any possible future improvements in living standards, Peak oil and other shortages allowing of course.
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