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Daily briefing for Friday, December 30, 2011; European disunion; cheap gold; Warren Buffett; ethical eating

Daily briefing for Friday, December 30, 2011; European disunion; cheap gold; Warren Buffett; ethical eating
30th Dec 11, 10:38am by David Chaston

The costs of indecision
A Wall Street Journal investigation, based on more than two dozen interviews with euro-zone policy makers, revealed how the currency union floundered in indecision—failing to address either the immediate concerns of investors or the fundamental weaknesses undermining the euro. The consequence was that a crisis in a few small economies turned into a threat to the survival of Europe's common currency and a menace to the global economy. 

A bear market in gold?
Gold is on the brink of a bear market, and posted the longest slump since March 2009 as gains in the US dollar reduced demand for precious metals as alternative assets. It has slipped below NZ$2,000 per ounce in latest trading, its lowest in five months.

Go long
"I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.."
Warren Buffett

more below ...

     8 am       ---   52 week  --  
    Today   yesterday   high low  
     --------    --------   --------- ---------   
FX rates NZ$1=US$ 0.7709   0.7697   0.8822 0.7174  
  NZ$1=AU$ 0.7616   0.7627   0.8085 0.7276  
                 
Gold in US$/oz 1,539   1,559   1,895 1,319  
  in NZ$ 1,996   2,026   2,314 1,705  
                 
Copper in US$/t 7,502   7,590r   10,147 6,785  
  in NZ$ 9,731   9,861r   13,507 8,299  
                 
Crude oil in US$/bl 99.61   99.50   118.70 89.69  
  in NZ$ 129.21   129.27   149.14 117.26  
                 
US Treasuries 30 yr bond 2.90%   3.05%   4.73% 2.88%  
                 
Dow DJIA 30 12,253   12,166   12,919 10,402  
                 

Decline 5.0
Prophets of American collapse have a poor record. But the latest "fifth wave of declinism" is different: It’s being met with resignation, not protest. But not everyone sees the end anytime soon.

The neuroeconomic revolution
Neuroscience is changing the way Robert Shiller thinks about economics. Do prevailing theories have a physical basis in the brain? Economics is at the start of a revolution that is traceable to an unexpected source: medical schools and their research facilities.

The ethical eater
The best way to save animals and protect the environment is to not eat meat, right? Wrong. The ethics of eating red meat have been grilled recently by critics who question its consequences for environmental health and animal welfare. But if you want to minimise animal suffering and promote more sustainable agriculture, adopting a vegetarian diet might be the worst possible thing you could do. 

No chart with that title exists.

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81 Comments

by  Wolly  |  30th Dec 11, 12:08pm 1325200121

Last shake was 10am....hmmmmm...building for big one maybe...too much time passing..

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by  Wolly  |  30th Dec 11, 1:35pm 1325205348

 Tim Hazledine is a professor of economics at the University of Auckland....he exposes the filth under the salary rorts going on in his profession....herald.

Well good luck Tim...can't say I expect you will see any change to the rort in your lifetime...

Yes we could expect that our central govt would highlight this filthy issue and begin to wind back the scam payments in the public sector....but we would have more chance of having aliens in polka dot pants land on the roof of the Beehive. Isn't that right John Key?

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by  goNZ  |  30th Dec 11, 2:25pm 1325208309

" a professor of economics"        thats off to a bad start even without the envy politics.What would he know about market salaries ?      The amount of grief  caused to NZ  by university experimentalism eg  Helengrads reign is obscene

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by  south paw  |  30th Dec 11, 2:39pm 1325209140

Its a great article. As for your rightwing bashing of Universities, that's hypocritical. The right wing neo classical economic theory that precipitated the current econonmic disaster came from academic types.

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by  steven  |  30th Dec 11, 3:11pm 1325211063

Actually not strictly true as its really just the neo-cons / neo-classical scholl of economics in this case IMHO. There is whats known as the fresh water school (neo-clasical) and the salt water school (keynesian) ....Paul Krugman is the salt water school and has for many years been "in the wilderness" while the freshwater school dominated political and economic thought...and we can see the mess as a result.

regards

 

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by  south paw  |  30th Dec 11, 3:51pm 1325213479

Anyway goNZ has had a rightwing meltdown in the "USA economy saves the day" thread.

Raving on about  how he's a ( white ) hardworking patriotic family man and 'chinks' invading NZ.

Crazy stuff.

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by  steven  |  30th Dec 11, 4:54pm 1325217276

Yes well....he's a redneck and full of it....

regards

 

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by  Gummy Bear Hero  |  31st Dec 11, 8:33pm 1325316803

Mr goNZ has apologised , guys , for his use of the term " chinks " . ..... . no need to milk it . Let's move on ....

..... and agree to resume the good spirited debate between the " left " and the   " right " , in the new year ..

Us on the right are right , of course !

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by  OMG  |  31st Dec 11, 8:50pm 1325317811

My missus is Chinese - into our 26th year - and we currently live in HK.I didn't take offence to gonz's throw away remark.

A happy and prosperous New Year to everyone.

NB We shouldn't forget the 5 billion people the humanity hating ecofascists on this board want removed from the face of the earth, so they can live out their deluded ,selfish, cornucopian lifestyle.

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by  Kunst  |  31st Dec 11, 8:58pm 1325318335

Gummy – I’m the only one left on the right, who is right. I'm sure David B. as a "NZlefty" agrees with that.

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by  Mark Hubbard  |  31st Dec 11, 9:28am 1325276935

Paul Krugman is the salt water school and has for many years been "in the wilderness" while the freshwater school dominated political and economic thought..

 

Yet the Statist Big Government spending Keynesian economics that Krugman advocates has ruled in all the Wests major ecomomies for the better part of eighty years, and bred the unsound monied, centrally banked system that has now come to fruition to bring down whole economies in the US and Europe.

Go figure.

Don't ever let the facts get in the way of a good story, steven.  Though if you want the facts, I've always enjoyed reading Krugman-in-Wonderland.

 

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by  south paw  |  31st Dec 11, 2:25pm 1325294739

It was right wing economics begining with Thatcher and Regan that gave the finance sector the green light to go on a rampage of speculation and fraud.

"Don't ever let the facts get in the way of a good story"

You obviously follow your own advice, Tribeless.

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by  Mark Hubbard  |  31st Dec 11, 2:36pm 1325295369

Oh for God's sake get informed.

Here's my challenge. Spend your break reading a selection of the articles within each section of the Mises Bailout Reader, and then come back and see if you still want to make that statement as to the cause of the GFC, and justify it.

Start with this one: What's Behind the Financial Market Crisis.

It's not about right or left wing politics so much as it's about economics, and Keynesian economics versus the Austrian school and theory of the business cycle.

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by  steven  |  1st Jan 12, 9:11am 1325362263

Total rubbish Tribeless, you tell ppl to go read Mises, yet its blindingly obvious you have not read Krugman....or underststood him, or wanted to.......when you wear blinkers its blind sides you.

1) The Western Govns have by and large not been Keynesian, they have been Friedman with (in particular the USA) a nasty right wing / conservative / religious twist....ie they have been in effect more facsist leaning  than anything.

"Krugman in wonderland" is fantasy, which Is suppose sums up your world, hence I consider you a psychotic

Let me define it for you,

Psychosis is a loss of contact with reality, usually including false beliefs about what is taking place or who one is (delusions) and seeing or hearing things that aren't there (hallucinations).

2) Krugman is pro-business, he doesnt like Govn spending for the sake of it.....what he does advocate right now is short term one off type Govn spending to stop the world falling into a 2nd Great Depression. Yet since he misses or doesnt put enough weight on Peak Oil he cant see his spending wont work....

Never mind I think your wish for (a lot) less centralised govn interference will come true in our lifetime, assuming we both live another 30 years.

Thats the strange thing...if you accept or have read Peak Oil and that complex societies (which are inherently centralised) are energy intensive.....then it should be obvious that with less energy they cannot survive......

Collapse of Complex Societies by Dr. Joseph Tainter (1 of 7)  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddmQhIiVM48

Such work should make it obvious that localised, self-sufficient and self governing will be the way of the future.

regards

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by  Basel Brush III  |  30th Dec 11, 3:20pm 1325211629

Well,Wolly, the answer is in a strong reversion to progressive taxation.

Try 90% for all income above $200k. No that would not work BUT

Try making any salary or other perks not deductible for tax by the payer. And any bonus shares to come from market re-purchases only.

It really is time for the fundies etc to get tough on the companies they hold shares in.

Oh dear, theorising again.

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by  Wolly  |  30th Dec 11, 3:31pm 1325212267

Hmmmm...I stand by my claim that John Key couldn't give a rat's arse about the sort of public sector salary rorts now a permanent feature throughout NZ....the $600,000 plus salary for the Auckland academic will by 2015 be $1,000,000 and by 2020 it will be $2,500,000....and still Key wouldn't give a hoot.

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by  Basel Brush III  |  30th Dec 11, 8:19pm 1325229570

Hmmmmm, me too.

Will JK be overtaken by history as having feet stuck in a bog?

IMHO JK will always do TOO LITTLE TOO LATE.

Typical Nats pragmatism gets them into the same problems that does for Labour by being too interventionist. 

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by  robby217  |  31st Dec 11, 12:56am 1325246215

A footnote in Nassim Talebs Black Swan reads: "I then realised that the great strength of the free market system is the fact that company executives don't need to know whats going on".

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by  steven  |  30th Dec 11, 2:12pm 1325207578

Italy's long-term cost of borrowing has remained high as worries about the eurozone debt crisis continue.

The Italian government raised around 7bn euros ($8.96bn, £5.86bn) of medium and long-term debt on Thursday.

The interest rate on Italian 10-year bonds was 6.98%, viewed as unsustainably high by investors.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16352028

regards

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by  Mike B  |  30th Dec 11, 4:05pm 1325214300

"I never attempt to make money on the stock market."  Warren Buffett.

I recal an article i read, quite a few years age now, in which Warren Buffett was reported as saying

"I din't buy shares i buy companies, the sharemarket is only for selling companies that you don't want"

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by  steven  |  30th Dec 11, 4:51pm 1325217106
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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 6:27am 1325266026

Let's finish 011 with some hard honest truth....

 "Spanish Prime Minister ..announced 14.9 billion euros .. of deficit cuts, with the government’s finances in worse shape than expected and the budget shortfall exceeding European Union forecasts. The deficit this year will reach 8 percent of gross domestic product, requiring tax increases of 6 billion euros and spending reductions of 8.9 billion euros"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-30/spain-cuts-11-5-billion-in-spending-as-taxes-boosted-to-trim-budget-gap.html

Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Belgium and France are all in the same rotting boat, while the UK is desperate to keep air in its lifejacket some 100 metres away....the usa is churning the media spin and BS about recovery and the recession being over because some fool bought a new Tonka toy from GM...and across the Pacific China heads down the hole.

We of course are safe from these economic Tsunami events...we have milk powder to sell....and meat....plus not to forget we enjoy the comfort of WFF and the landlords subsidy rort that protects the property bubble that our banks are sitting on top of....nothing can hurt the NZ economy...we are in safe hands...on the 9th floor of the Beehive and in the RBNZ on the Terrace...believe it or not.

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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 6:49am 1325267394

On a different tack...something that costs this economy billions....all of us....especially when we reg our vehicle and fork out over $400 to ACC....road accidents....injury and deaths...as in this latest "accident"... http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6203663/Two-dead-and-family-of-five-hurt

Take a look at the picture of the smash scene...look at the double yellow on the whole corner....ask yourself this : "If the bureaucracy in charge of the main highways had separated the traffic on this and other equally dangerous sections of road, with a concrete barrier that prevented bad drivers from overtaking....would this smash have happened?"

The obvious answer is "NO".

Yet the Bureaucracy is not funded to do this....which is bloody stupid policy isn't it....the cost of a concrete barrier separating the traffic flows would be high but the savings would be far greater over the fifty years plus lifetime of the investment.....

John Key and Co will put tens of millions into a bike track or three...and well done...but they are blind to the need to a simple way to reduce the road carnage....and blind to the economic reasons for doing so...

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by  steven  |  31st Dec 11, 9:23am 1325276581

Your really have no clue.  They do an economic assessment Wolly....so if a stretch of road kills more economic "whatevers" than it costs to make safe, they make it safe.

However there is no preventing stupidity...and the economics of trying to seperate out every bend makes no sense.

Personal responsibility comes to mind, that and the "Darwin awards".

Bike tracks encourgae tourism, if it makes clear economic sense they should do it......but it has to show a clear benefit, and I doubt that.

regards

 

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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 9:38am 1325277516

Doh..like I didn't know about the "three deaths and we invest rule" steven...ask any copper and they can identify a dozen critical places where concrete crash barriers would likely prevent injuries and deaths....even a simple road alignment to provide a median strip of hedge would help...but no, too much like hard thinking for our 'leaders'   ....fits into the same box of brainless designwork that sites concrete power poles within a metre of traffic doing 100ks....very very common across the country....instant death at that speed...

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by  Andrew R  |  31st Dec 11, 9:58am 1325278707

Stephen Joyce needs to take a bow over this as well.  Building the holiday highway at $1.2+ billion instead of circa $400 million on median strips through Dome Valley and bypasses around Wellsford and Warkworth and some toher road realignments and safety upgrades.  

The bad overtaking I see is usually associated with a slow driver and a long stretch of road without passing lanes.  Maybe build more passing lanes? 

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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 10:20am 1325280013

I find the dangerous overtaking is associated with stupidity...passing lanes are clearly indicated ahead but the moron always wants to be in front and to hell with yellow lines.

Worst are the drivers of trucks towing trailers who seem to forget their trailer and having 'past' a vehicle, decide it's ok to move left again...crunch.

Throw in the idiot car drivers who know they are the best drivers in the world and will prove it to everyone in their way....fatheads

Include the shoddy road engineering and poor surfaces...a recipe for deaths and injuries.

Booze and drugs just up the anti.

We need death totals to be displayed at the start of road sections instead of white crosses.

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by  Andrew R  |  31st Dec 11, 11:40am 1325284825

Try Northland roads sometime.  Passing lanes many kilometres apart and not that well sign posted.

The dangerous overtaking I see (and I am driving on the open road 2-3 hours per working day) is a result of the impatience and frustration that happens from following someone travelling at 20-30 km/hr below the speed limt and not pulling over.

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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 12:04pm 1325286247

But if they have nowhere to pull over...you expect them to plough along at your speed...why should they?.. the faster driver needs to be patient...Remember AJ, many vehicles, my camper included, have speed limits imposed by a bureaucrat of 90kph....4 tons at 90kph is far more dangerous to pull over than if I were doing 70kph...I am able to spot a safe zone to move left into long before the madness climbs over the top of me....

The answer is to have more slow lanes and to improve the signage. Punnish the slow only when they fail to move left...and punnish those who think 100kph is a target speed minimum.

Northland roading sounds very much like the death highway between Blenheim and chch. Stuff all slow lanes and a narrow road falling apart.

 

 

 

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by  Gibber  |  31st Dec 11, 1:38pm 1325291930

Yah. There are some bozos who don't understand the consequences of slowing down a stream of traffic. But equally there are some bozos who need to learn a little patience

I saw one lady come up behind me when I was stuck 4 cars or so behind the vehicle slowing down the stream. She pulled out and overtook all 5 cars.  And finished the overtake about 50m before a blind corner. 

She spent about 1 minute behind before she did this.

That is just stupid.  If anyone had been coming the other way then the idiot would have taken herself AND the poor sods coming the other way out.

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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 1:55pm 1325292910

Jeez Gibber, and you call the fool a 'lady'....!

I always ask those who 'bitch' about slow campervans how much experience they have had driving '4 ton slabs of wind resistance' in 100kph gusting side winds on poorly built roads with no runoff to the left but for the usual Kiwi ditch deep enough to swallow a house.!

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by  Neville C  |  31st Dec 11, 9:22pm 1325319770

The NZTA has a policy to put passing lanes on state highways.

http://www.nzta.govt.nz/resources/planning-policy-manual/docs/planning-…

Basically it depends on the number of vehicles per day (VPD) and the type of road (flat, rolling, mountainous). Up to 4000 vpd is road and line of sight improvements, 4000 - 10000 vpd its passing lanes, over 10,000 vpd its 2+1 lanes or four laning. see page 6 of the link

In the North Is there are passing lanes popping up everywhere. In the areas you travel, I guess the traffice volumes are too low.

Re the crash with the family of 5. The motorway thru Paraparaumu should have been build years ago if it hadn't been for the years of blocking by the locals. ( too many retires with too much time on their hands)

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by  Wolly  |  1st Jan 12, 5:59am 1325350755

2012 wish list:

1. All statements about the economy from bank economists, govt mps and the RBNZ to be filtered to remove humbug, blather and outright  BS.

2. That the media set about an effort to explain clearly and fully to the peasants, the truth about the banking and money system in use today...

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by  Andrew R  |  1st Jan 12, 10:55am 1325368547

Thanks for that Neville C.  Must be too few cars on the State Highway between Whangarei and Dargaville, and on SH 10 north of Kaeo and SH 1 from Rangiahua north, and along SH 11, and SH 1 south of Kawakawa (where I see the worst examples of slow drivers and bad overtaking) ....

 

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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 7:05am 1325268309

And here's a comment from Mish that needs to be nailed onto Key's Beehive office wall...

 "As I have said numerous times, European countries are in dire need of work rule changes, less government spending, less bureaucracy, and fewer taxes. Unfortunately, bureaucrats have responded with increased taxes"

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Now JK would argue that his govt cut paye to balance out the gst hike...but what he will not agree to is the fact that the gst payment increase on  new housebuild adds up to many thousands of dollars that have to be paid in one lump to govt....not a dribbly bit at a time as in the paye reductions.

Consequently, the demand for newbuilds and reno work...guess what happened!...

Now I would have thought the useless NZ media would at least be able to see this connection and report on it....silly me....I didn't realise just how utterly incompetent the nz media really are.

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by  steven  |  31st Dec 11, 9:27am 1325276868

Mish doesnt get it either, I like his analysis he often brings together great research/info/data not often his conclusions.

We have two prblems,

a) we have a raw materials problem and an energy problem.....lack of cheap energy and materials is finishing growth.......

b) We dont have enough consumers of the goods that can be outputed now.

There is nothing you can do about either...any "investors" and anyone else should be considering this and protecting their assets/wealth/wellbeing IMHO.

regards

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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 7:13am 1325268788

 "Everyone asks Cantabrians why they stay? Sometimes Cantabrians ask themselves. The latest jolt, coming after a hopeful lull, will be the last straw for some more. At a certain point a trickle could turn to a torrent. That would be the moment when even people who still wanted to stay decided they needed to get out before their business, job or house value disappeared.

The whole country would suffer as the economy shrank and welfare costs rocketed until the population of its second largest city could be resettled and re-employed elsewhere.

If this is the nightmare behind decisions to suppress geological forecasts, the time has arrived to think again."

 

 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/christchurch-earthquake/news/article.cfm?c_id=1502981&objectid=10775949

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by  steven  |  31st Dec 11, 9:40am 1325277630

Yep, our GDP would nose dive, our AAA rating would drop....borrowing costs in the face of a Depression/recession would rise causing a self-enforcing downward spiral.....anyone even vaguely employable and that includes the tradesmen Chch needs would bugger off to OZ......those not employable will be on the DPB/WINZ, less tax income, more outgoings.

Then there is the lack of insurance which haunts Chch and I think this beyond anything will kill the city. That forecast of 4 or 5 years of this continuing will finish Chch IMHO. No one can build and get insurance.....another decent round of damage and I think all private policies for EQ will get cancelled....Chch will be un-insureable.....which means no mortgages can be taken out....the council wont be able to afford to repair.....the Central Govn ie us will either have to cough up, or wash their hands and thats an election loser.....either way....

its yet more can kicking.

Its also interesting taht this is described as a 1 in 10000 year event...AMI etc couldnt have forseen this....

regards

 

 

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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 9:40am 1325277633

I agree.

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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 7:27am 1325269634
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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 1:23pm 1325290985

  "Political Bureau members "courteously proclaimed the dear comrade Kim Jong-un, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea, assumed the supreme commandership of the Korean People's Army" according to a will made by Kim Jong-il on Oct. 8"

 appointed-supreme-commander-of-North-Koreas-military.html

Isn't it wonderful....if the world is really lucky this blob of fat will also be a heavy smoker and heading for a terminal stroke...soon.

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by  Kunst  |  31st Dec 11, 1:50pm 1325292600

On the photo it says +EXPAND. Hmm – I’m not sure if we really want that.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10776057

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by  69er  |  31st Dec 11, 5:48pm 1325306900

Lol. Careful,  he might send the bother boys after you Kunst...

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by  Wolly  |  31st Dec 11, 1:47pm 1325292431

The ess in piigs just got larger....haha

 "The Bank of Spain announced this month that regional debt had surged 22 percent, to $176 billion in September from $144 billion the year before. And some experts say that there remain tens of billions of dollars in “hidden” regional debt yet to be discovered"

 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/31/world/europe/as-spain-trims-deficits-scrutiny-falls-on-regional-governments.html

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by  steven  |  1st Jan 12, 9:53am 1325364836

and the new conservative spanish govn will be making yet more cuts...

its like cutting your own throat...

regards

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by  Wolly  |  1st Jan 12, 6:31am 1325352673

Daily briefing for Jan 1st 2012:

 Spain can no longer hide all of the cockroaches

 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

 meanwhile down on the price bloated kiwi farm....

"Starving, neglected sheep and cattle threaten to become an increasing problem as ageing farmers struggle to move off their land.

The average age of a cattle and sheep farmer is now 58.

Federated Farmers president Bruce Wills said the lack of young farmers was deeply concerning for the industry.

More than half of New Zealand's income came from agriculture exports, he said.

"It is what runs our hospitals and educates our kids. We have nothing that can replace the agriculture industry."

The high cost of buying a farm was preventing young people from entering farming.

Economists say the average deposit needed to buy a farm has soared to $1 million, forcing many farmers to hang on to their farms as the younger generation bows out.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is having to kill animals neglected by farmers too old to look after them."

 

 http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/latest-edition/6205578/Fears-neglect-on-the-rise-as-young-fail-to-work-the-land

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by  steven  |  1st Jan 12, 10:01am 1325365302

Supply and demand...

Queue Hugh telling us we need cheap land for uh...farms....

but oh no it cant be that the sellers are plain over-charging from crazy specualtion....making tax free gains after years of claiming to be uh, poor by overloading with debt to dodge tax....roll in a CGT as soon as IMHO.

regards

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by  Sheep Shagger  |  1st Jan 12, 12:06pm 1325372796

So Steven, with top operaters making double digit ROIs and even average ones probably doing better than term deposit rates how exactly is farmland overvalued?

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by  Wolly  |  1st Jan 12, 12:15pm 1325373320

Looking at it through those shades sheepshagger and all is ok....the problem comes when the younger farmer is faced with having to work for the bank....

Double D ROIs = great news until it comes time to sell up and park the bum.....who then can afford to buy the farm?....Who Flung Dung?....something not quite right at mill SS.

Do I detect a consequence of all that cheap credit creation and rural bubble blowing by the banks....who really owns the farm?.....seems to me the banks own most of the farms.

And the regional Councils are in there boots and all grabbing at the cash flow....

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by  steven  |  1st Jan 12, 11:19am 1325369985

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8985905/The-hig…

"The high price of oil has blocked the West's economic escape route. The global economy will grow by around 3pc this year, down from 4pc in 2011. The US should manage a 2pc expansion, while Britain and the eurozone will struggle. A West European recession, the UK included, now looks unavoidable."   2% expansion with core inflation at about 1.5~2%? oh dear.   "Having added my headline numbers to the predictive fray, I'd like to focus on an issue I believe will weigh heavily on the minds of Western economic policymakers during 2012 – namely, the price of crude oil."   "This inventory dip reflects two important aspects of global oil production. Several of the world's leading oil fields are losing pressure – not least Ghawar in Saudi Arabia and Mexico's Cantarell. Two of the very biggest fields on earth, both are now producing at levels significantly below their medium-term production forecasts."   He almost gets it.....   "At the same time, oil-well exploration and development were hit badly by the credit crunch. Crude production is a seriously capital-intensive business with long "lead times". In recent years, a lack of available finance has hit the oil industry hard."   then falls back....   energy return on energy invested....   "Most mainstream investors now understand that even if the West exhibits oil "demand destruction" during a severe slowdown, population pressures and rising per capita wealth in the emerging markets mean global commodity use will keep growing. This has been a difficult message to accept, seeing as Western recession now looks compatible with triple-digit oil."   Population.......5 billion too many.....   Well worth reading the entire piece......geo-politics.....arab spring etc...oil price wont or cant drop....   regards
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by  OMG  |  2nd Jan 12, 3:36pm 1325471776

So Steven, what are your oil stock picks for 2012?

I am currently involved in a deal, which if it comes off, should be a winner - may reveal it here later once it is official.

[after all this is a finance website for those looking to protect their future and avoid becoming wards of the state]

BTW I think 5 billion people just voted you off the planet.

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by  steven  |  3rd Jan 12, 2:00pm 1325552403

I think there was a good piece on buying oil futures some months back....the idea is no matter what you have enough oil futures to cover your personal needs and re-invest to keep the game going....the minimum sum suggested was about $150kUSD.......seemed somewhat of a gamble to me but not irrational when taken in a limited context...

Oil stocks will at some point crash....they are only up because the oil price is high and they are fiddlimng their reserve figures....when that penny drops the stocks will drop also....

"wards of the state" the best way to keep ppl out of that will be to protect businesses as they provide jobs and not at a personal level per see.  You can live in a walled off compound with armed guards but it isnt much fun.  I'd suggest a holiday in South Africa to try that out.

So its not about protecting "you" its about protecting all of us.  I think someone said to have an interest you have to have skin in the game....so same goes for society....if everyone is benefiting few if any will rock the boat.

Obviously you are a flat earther....."5 billion" frankly I think you are an idiot and you prove it most days on here....

"Voted you off", in some ways like Tribeless I wish we had faster than light travel and we could indeed just leave, though seperate planets pls.....I will put it on my to do list.

Otherwise consider we are all in the same test tube and we are doing an experiment to see how many ppl the planet can support. Consider that is expotential growth on a non-flat piece of land....ie its finite.

So the nasty problem with peak oil here is how to reduce without anarchy ensuing....fat chance.

Considering you live in HK? well thats one place that I cant see doing to well....NZ on the other hand is sparse and diverse and has resources.....maybe you should make plans to run home, just dont trip over that tail between your legs when the time comes.

BTW my 1/2 my family is chinese, and that half plus myself was insulted at the "chink" statement....maybe you should ask your wife whether she's impressed.

regards

 

 

 

 

 

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by  OMG  |  3rd Jan 12, 3:41pm 1325558466

Let's get a few things clear here.

The world runs on oil, yet you haven't got the balls to buy oil stocks. So what the hell are you doing on a financial website when you post opinions about the durability of the price of oil and constantly tell us it's running out??

You have a hide thicker than anyone I've come across. People constantly describe you as a dick/idiot and yet you bounce back for more. 

I see you as profoundly lonely with a very poor ability to relate to humanity in general. Your endless posting here is a constant effort on your part for personal validation. Claiming you are injured by the word "chink" is a further sign of your deep insecurity, notwithstanding that you abuse all and sundry. 

You laughably claim we are all in it together yet post aggressive remarks about how you'll defend your patch. No altruism there!

Twice you have used the abbreviated epithet FFS in unsolicited comments to me. Steven, I now want it on public record that I reject your repugnant offer of a liason. That has never been and never will be part of my makeup.

Obviously there is only one solution for the "resource problem" and it's for you and your family to either subject yourselves to castration or euthanasia. Deeds not words, now run along, practice what you preach.

Regards

 

 

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by  David B  |  3rd Jan 12, 4:38pm 1325561885

Don't hold your breath asking Steven to practice what he preaches, OMG. Steven drives a gas guzzling SUV which, given his posture on peak oil and environmentalism, can only mean one of two things.

1. He is a hypocrite and doesn't practice what he preaches, or

2. is a vicious, vindictive hater of society and wishes nothing more than to see it collapse, and is trying his hardest to bring that about by consuming as much oil as he can.  This peak oil fatalist longs for nothing more than to see communities and countries suffer and in hardship to prove that he is right.

Either way, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture. I don’t think Bernard has fully grasped yet the extent to which the haters and wreckers and the lunatic fringe that flock to his site stifle quality discussions and debates on economic and financial matters that affect New Zealand. Or maybe he has, but he just doesn’t know what to do about it? But it certainly is one of the main reasons why I will be contributing a lot less around here than I have in the past. I'm bored to death with them.

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by  OMG  |  3rd Jan 12, 6:59pm 1325570372

Quite right David. I will post and visit less for the same reasons you outlined. I'm currently the vice president of an approx billion dollar (US) private company with ambitious plans (and debt free) so I have better things to do. I have been spending too much time here.  What Bernard could do is have a look at the investorvillage.com model where those signed up can comunicate with each other and set up discussion boards which have a vetted membership so that lunatics can be excluded or if they show up by stealth booted off. Separate forums could be set up for specific topics, like investment opportunities, governance issues, farming etc There are some great posters here - philbest has recently cotributed a great deal, likewise Hugh etc. Too many others to name. The doom and gloomers could form their own forum under this system and talk to themselves and we wouldn't have to wade through their boring drek.

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  3rd Jan 12, 7:23pm 1325571820

Ambitious. Ego. Insecure.

Good luck with that.

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by  NeilD  |  3rd Jan 12, 8:54pm 1325577286

Lighten up guys, yes the Gloomsters can overwhelm and saturate this site, any man with any self respect does not need to repeat himself over and over again to make himself understood, so yip, some here can be trying...However segregation and barriers are not the anwser....maybe harder moderation is the answer like this....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sry7JYV1U24&feature=related

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  3rd Jan 12, 9:57pm 1325581056

NeilD

some  oxymoronism there, methinks.

Some folk understand that indefinite growth (exponential, despite DavidB and ChrisJ being unable to see it) withing a finite sphere of operations, is impossible.

Some of them - I'm one - have attempted to ascertain when, and why, that growth will cease. We have also, not unreasonably, ventured to iagine what life on the other side of the graph will be like.

Having done so, some of us have proactively attempted to addres the issues. Turns out the life thus gotten is more fun, rewarding etc, than those of the faceless 'suits' I see nose-to-tail of a work-day morning.

Read the quote I sent Sore Loser, and realise that your 'gloomster' comment is full of pre-held bias. I wouldn't change my existence for anything or anybody, indeed I feel sorry for those without the balls to live their own lives.

I'll give you a simple example: how many folk reading this, wear a tie daily? Why? Since buttons became reliable, it's been a piece of superfluous nonsense - but how many folk have to balls to throw them away? Same when egos (I'm sure business folk are shorter than average, on average) need bolsered by status, be it cars, houses, trophy tarts, whatever. They're living by others appraisal, by others values, and therefore others' lives.

T'aint 'gloomsters' - and we're intelligent enough that we wouldn't comment if there were no proactive way of addressing what's coming. The reason we do, is that there is.

And simple math tells you that new ideas are taken up in bell-curve fashion - a few at first, the mass in the middle, and the clingers-to-the-old, in the tail-off. Some hang on forever, but in total irrelevance - believers in 7-day creations, flat-earths, permanent growth.......

 

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by  NeilD  |  3rd Jan 12, 10:51pm 1325584268

Ok PDK, that was a nice measured response... see simple eh! "change the language and you can change the conversation"

I don't disagree with all you or Steve (as an example) have to say, infact i totally accept a reasonable amount of your argument (par3 for instance) but if a point can't be made by playing the ball then you have no voice...

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by  OMG  |  3rd Jan 12, 11:27pm 1325586455

Neil, 

A closer reading sees PDK slag off the very people who come to this website. If you are in business then your wife's a tart, you're stunted physically and you own stuff which puts PDK's jealousy meter on red alert. There's no polite discourse at all with these clowns. A few of us have been fighting back but apart from the entertainment value its a waste of time. LOL

OMG 6ft3'

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  4th Jan 12, 9:01am 1325620891

NeilD - I started with 'measured responses' two (or more) years ago, here.

What you find, is that there are few who comment as 'free thinkers', and they I interact with happily, indeed with humour.

The others (vested interest types in the main) I treat politely in the first instance, then don't bother. Obviously, though, for the average reader here - and that includes politicians - it is best that these folk are seen to be challenged. When they come out with absolute tripe - Hughey's 'Malthusian' and 'cave' comments are tripe, and come on the back of my invite to him to visit, stay, learn - I lose respect, and tolerance.

I make no apologies for that.

In terms of 'paid hacks for commercial interests' (be they climate change befuddlers or growth-forever touts), I think in terms of my children, and presumably theirs. Nobody is championing their 'rights', and from their perspective, one can mount the case that the touts/lobbyists/vestedinterests are somewhere on the line between theives and murderers. (2degC rise globally, knowingly instigated in face of credible scientific concern, has to be see as murder).

So too, the continued push for 'growth', particularly as it's provably not possible, and provably will lead to serious consequences.

I've probably come to the end of 'tolerance', for those who ridicule, fail to investigate, and tout continuance. That includes the NZ media, pretty much en-masse.

Again, no apologies. They've had their noses lead to the water.

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by  steven  |  4th Jan 12, 8:35am 1325619317

repeat? no, we counter the "repeats" Look at PDKs and my posts, I think you will tend to find we counter the repetitive rubbish spoken here by some....we lay out messages, information, data....let the readers decide what they wish to believe and what they will do about it for themselves.

Recall ACT's prediction of what % in the polls? I didnt think it was going to happen....it didnt....

Of course you could go conservipedia and counter wikipedia with your own site so you have your own truths...ban anyone you dont like the posts of...Quite how that will get you to the truth I dont know, but I guess you/some will be happy.

regards

 

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by  NeilD  |  4th Jan 12, 9:21am 1325622097

Yes i do well remember 'that' prediction..what a cockup that was, could barely have go any worse, i'v since been wondering if Brash was in fact a labour plant and not a national one! Can't see how ACT can recover from here( CK was right, Banks is toxic) their pretty much done for i'd say!

 

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by  steven  |  4th Jan 12, 11:13am 1325628798

repeat? no, we counter the "repeats" Look at PDKs and my posts, I think you will tend to find we counter the repetitive rubbish spoken here by some....we lay out messages, information, data....let the readers decide what they wish to believe and what they will do about it for themselves.

Recall ACT's prediction of what % in the polls? I didnt think it was going to happen....it didnt....

Of course you could go conservipedia and counter wikipedia with your own site so you have your own truths...ban anyone you dont like the posts of...Quite how that will get you to the truth I dont know, but I guess you/some will be happy.

regards

 

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by  moa man  |  3rd Jan 12, 9:42pm 1325580179

WTF OMG, only a couple of days ago you said you lived in an apartment with 5 other people, one of which sleeps on the sofa, and you worked from home. And now you are the VP of a biliion dollar company.  Man, I knew HK was fast paced but that takes the cake!

Do all VP's have a dosser on the sofa in HK?

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by  OMG  |  3rd Jan 12, 10:09pm 1325581770

Moa - that's HK for you. We live with my mother-in- law as she needs some assistance. All my resources are tied up at present and even if they weren't there's no way I would buy in this market which is hopelessly overpriced and set to plunge - maybe later, 

Cheers.

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by  steven  |  4th Jan 12, 7:24am 1325615069

Now you are inventing things to attack with, smearing because you cant do any better.....try coming up with answers / counters to what I say.....you have failed so far, totally.

FYI, I mostly use public transport, I then use a small car and i have an old SUV for hauling stuff when I have no other option....Driving the SUV is minimal.

1. As above I practice what I preach but I intend to do better.

2. Again you shoot the messanger, I merely read the arguments of maths, data information and logic put out by others, they do the hard hards.....I dont hate our society, it has quite a bit wrong with it.....however on its present exptential course its heading for a crash

Contributing? LOL I see nothing from you but point 2 as you try to claim of me.

Lunatics, well ppl can come here and read and make their own minds up, their choice.

regards

 

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by  Plutocracy  |  3rd Jan 12, 4:54pm 1325562843

Play nice kiddies!

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  3rd Jan 12, 8:53pm 1325577223

OMG

Bollocks.

When folk point to their proactive deeds (forest creation, in my case), you belittle them too.

What you are witnessing - and you'd better get used to the fact - is the onset of a new and permanent paradigm.

Let's get a few things clear here by all means: If the world runs on oil, then the world is in trouble. Not when it 'runs out', but half-way through.

Once there, why would you 'invest' in it? If it underwrites 'the world', and it's peaked, your investment can only - on average - dwindle. Oh you may strike a ladder rather than a snake, but the chances will be reduced of that, and will continue to be so. You may end up with more dollars too, but the only real measure of wealth, is what it can buy.

Less oil = less to buy, higher demand = less purchasing power.

http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/

Let's say that is out by, oh, say there's double the amount there......

http://www.oilcrisis.com/bartlett/hubbert.htm

So even if you double the amount of the finite resource that you say 'thew world runs on', it only takes peak out to 2030. That doesn't help you much - by 2030, the Saudis won't have any left over to export, nor will anyone else who is increasing internal consumption while exporting while depleting (as ALL fields do, no exception).

Some of us don't need spin, don't need invective, don't have ego/arrogance issues, and seek something called 'the truth', because everything else........clearly isn't.

You should try it some time.

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by  OMG  |  3rd Jan 12, 9:58pm 1325581133

You're like a moth to a flame - haven't you got enough trouble on your hands keeping your wife on the treadmill to power up your computer?

For your information I bought a 15 acre forest block with 6 year old trees and owned it for nearly ten years. The forest is on very steep country. By hand I pruned these trees to their third and final lift @ 6.5 metres. I left a substantial number for firewood, but can look back with satisfaction at the 1,200 trees I pruned, without the use of a chainsaw. Very hard work I can tell you.

Invest in bicycle pumps for all I care if it makes you feel good. I have my strategy and I know I will be able to help a lot of people in the future.

Now you try something new.

Mind your own business.

 

 

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by  goNZ  |  4th Jan 12, 12:04am 1325588679

Do you think the air you breathe is finite ?       i,e is there peak oil but not peak air ?        should NZ have a defence force against the c word and i word to the north ?   why do you live on  a cushy lifestyle block when heaps of kiwis are squashed into inner city living ?  what are you going to contribute to NZ economic progress this year?  why are Greens and Lefties sso self righteous?

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by  goNZ  |  4th Jan 12, 12:04am 1325588684

Do you think the air you breathe is finite ?       i,e is there peak oil but not peak air ?        should NZ have a defence force against the c word and i word to the north ?   why do you live on  a cushy lifestyle block when heaps of kiwis are squashed into inner city living ?  what are you going to contribute to NZ economic progress this year?  why are Greens and Lefties sso self righteous?

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  4th Jan 12, 9:14am 1325621670

Gonzo - dear wee man with the crooked..........nose.

Don't confuse the issue. But then, that's what spinners do.

The air is indeed finite, as the ozone hole and the carbon dioxide counts prove. That pending problem is, however, slower off the rank than peak oil and it's ramifications - an interesting little paradigm.

Cushy lifestyle block? Nup. We bought it as low-grade land run into the ....dirt.....by a traditional cockie. It was a forest partnership, absentee. We shifted onto it when we became  sole owners, it saved travelling and you can't be on two properties at once.

NZ's economic progress? Well, that's a stupid yardstick. How about "contribute to the long-term viability of a healthy, happy, sustainable NZ"?

I'll do a heap more than you , by that measure.

Self-righteous? Only from the point of view of folk who have vested interests in not listening.

You should look round for a coal ition partner. I've got mine.

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by  steven  |  4th Jan 12, 7:52am 1325616776

LOL,

Lets take some truths,

Yes the world runs on oil, for our present annual energy consumption of 100TWH is mostly fossil fuels...and a huge % is for transportation and food....

Oil Stocks, like I said oil stocks is a sunset industry.....we are using 3 barrels of oil for every 1 we find, yet the oil majors and the big producers like Saudi present constant reserves....it has to be a lie. The glass is half empty and we drink from it yet its reported as still half full.... Now would I buy oil stocks that are highly valued when that is based on the oil they say they have but they cant prove it?  that to be is snake oil salesman territory. Now whethere the oil stocks will rise in value when ppl finally realise Peak Oil I wonder...I dont see how but there maybe a spot to gamble on....

In terms of oil like I said the best article Ive seen suggests playing in teh oil futures market.....if I had the money to spare for such a stupid endevour it would be there....

Short term for me its minimal debt and cash with the view to buying when prices drop....and I believe they will.

Bounce back, I have a rep of saying what I think directly when I am sure of what I can do and the information I have. Im a simple person in that respect, I call a spade a spade. When I think someone is wrong I say so, funny thing is when I have not in the past it often has come back to haunt me. So writing it down gives good proof of the dis-agreement, so we are both on record, eh? These days I am old enough to stand up to idiots (fairly) nicely and since I am confident of my information...ie I have done my research, yes I will stand up to such as yourself who wear political / self-indugent blinkers.

I see for the rest on you make guesses etc....as per usual they are pretty off the track.

I will and it seems we all will let Darwin sort the rest out.

regards

 

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by  steven  |  3rd Jan 12, 1:42pm 1325551345

Old oil $12, sure, the east stuff thats been used up. New oil is anything from $60 to $90 a barrel to get.

$100USD, try reading up on what Saudi is spending to bribe its population to keep quiet....the need > $80 so dont want to see that drop, ditto Iran....

regards

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  3rd Jan 12, 9:34pm 1325579691

SORE LOSER -

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-01-02/commentary-2012-predictions

Food for thought, not all I agree with....

Jeffery Brown I have a lot of time for, but this one is the cracker:

"As the growth icon topples we can begin the conversation about living well by living well within the capacity limits of ecosystems, waste sinks, human cognition and social organization. We can begin to learn, dare I say, humility.”

That about sums up what I think Key and Co are going to have to cope with.

This is an interesting retro-read:

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/raw-data-dr-alan-bollards-full-speech-nk-84687

"Indeed if oil prices escalate beyond $100 for long, growth in much of the world will suffer again".

and Brent is?

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by  steven  |  4th Jan 12, 7:28am 1325615339

and WTC is?

............

regards

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by  steven  |  4th Jan 12, 7:32am 1325615558

Hi,

There is a lot more info out there on the price problems....sure old fields and the lucky few onshore.....however the estimate I see on the industries the cost of finding new oil alone suggests $8USD a barrel...is his cost incl that?

Drilling costs,

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article283060.ece

regards

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by  Wolly  |  3rd Jan 12, 12:38pm 1325547498

Here come de storm...

 "New austerity measures in Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, and Greece have yet to bite, and they will. Economists think the European recession will be over mid-year. I think they are in fantasy-land. More likely, the US follows Europe into recession"

 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

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by  skudiv  |  3rd Jan 12, 1:20pm 1325550055

Austerity for the masses, and Ctrl+P for the Bankers.  Deficits are here to stay, nothing that can't be solved with the sale of some priceless artifacts, and valuables though.

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