Daily briefing for Friday, January 6, 2012

Daily briefing for Friday, January 6, 2012; Swiss mis-step; sub-prime auto loans; The end is nigh

6th Jan 12, 8:24am by David Chaston

Scandal engulfs Swiss central bank
Switzerland's powerful central bank has been forced to publish embarrassing details about a controversial currency trade by chairman Philipp Hildebrand's wife that netted her a Sfr75,000 (NZ$100,000) profit, to fend off a brewing political scandal. He refuses to step down.

De ja vu all over again
US auto lenders are pursuing an unlikely growth market: people who have fallen behind on their mortgages. wtf?!

Why the world has become more peaceful
Each generation is smarter and more moral than the last. It’s a good story, and Steven Pinker tells it well. But Timothy Snyder isn't persuaded. Another half-full / half-empty debate? What's the Kiwi perspective?

Wealth basics
"I have never been in a situation where having money made it worse."
Clinton Jones

more below ...

		8 am		--- 52 week --
		Today	Yesterday	high	low
		--------	--------	---------	---------
FX rates	NZ$1=US$	0.7812	0.7872	0.8822	0.7174
	NZ$1=AU$	0.7609	0.7609	0.8085	0.7276

Gold	in US$/oz	1,622	1,618	1,895	1,319
	in NZ$	2,076	2,055	2,314	1,705

Copper	in US$/t	7,652	7,661	10,147	6,785
	in NZ$	9,795	9,732	13,507	8,299

Crude oil	in US$/bl	102.93	102.99	118.70	89.69
	in NZ$	131.75	130.83	149.14	117.26

US Treasuries	30 yr bond	2.98%	2.89%	4.73%	2.88%

Dow	DJIA 30	12,425	12,413	12,919	10,402

Marginal revolutionaries
The crisis and the blogosphere have opened mainstream economics up to new attack. "Modern Monetary Theory". "Market monetarists". The "Austrian" school. These three schools of macroeconomic thought differ in their pedigree, in their beliefs, in their persuasiveness and in their prospects. Yet they also have a lot in common. They have thrived on the back of massive disillusion with mainstream economics, which held that the economy would grow steadily if central banks kept inflation low and stable, and that there were no great gains in the offing from fiscal expansion, nor any great cause for concern over financial instability. And they have benefited hugely from blogging.

Apocalypse anytime now
Secular and religious prognosticators agree on this: Disaster is in the offing. "The 10,000-year experiment of settled life is about to come crashing to a halt".

'Sorry. The lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock'
The fact that nations are continually spending more than they take in cannot turn out well in the long run. The word "credit" comes from the Latin "credere," which means "to believe." The system will only function as long as lenders believe in borrowers. Once the belief in the creditworthiness of borrowers is destroyed, hardly anyone will be willing to buy their securities. When that happens, the system is finished.

No chart with that title exists.

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105 Comments

by goNZ | 6th Jan 12, 10:40am 1325799650

An interesting angle on Ron Paul

From Ann Coulter's latest column:

".......Ron Paul is not electable as president for several reasons, including that he is only a congressman, is bad on illegal immigration, favors drug legalization and is off the charts on foreign policy.

But it would serve the rest of the world right to have Paul running the show for a term or two. Then they'd find out what it's like to be entirely on their own, protecting their own sea and air lanes, digging themselves out of their own earthquakes, getting invaded and nuked by hostile powers, having their computers hacked by terrorists and buying oil from the new Islamic caliphate. After eight years of President Paul, it would be generations before we'd hear a peep of anti-American sentiment again....."

by robby217 | 7th Jan 12, 6:00pm 1325912444

Absolute rubbish, there is nothing to stop mutual co-operation and friendship between nations. You don't need to prop up convenient dictators in the middle east to do that.

by Antz | 6th Jan 12, 11:16am 1325801775

I couldn't get the links on "Sorry. The lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock" to work, but found the quoted article here:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,806772,00.html

by skudiv | 6th Jan 12, 12:37pm 1325806634

Here is great Jon Stewart interview with an ex Hedge Fund Manager, and CNBC host.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-march-12-2009/jim-cramer-extended-interview-pt--2

Part three is even more cutting.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-march-12-2009/jim-cramer-extended-interview-pt--3

by skudiv | 6th Jan 12, 12:50pm 1325807405

The system will only function as long as lenders believe in borrowers. Once the belief in the creditworthiness of borrowers is destroyed, hardly anyone will be willing to buy their securities. When that happens, the system is finished.

Well, that used to be true, I thought it was true, and have been expecting it for a while. It's not true! Central Bankers will never allow the system to finish. Thats how powerful they are, they control the money, (not the public faces, the owners.) This fiat ponzi game will continue until we all learn to get along with each other without money. Not in my lifetime.

Even if a currency collapses, it just gets replaced with a new one same as the old one. Best thing to do IMO, is get independent from the system, or know how it works, and use it to your advantage.

by skudiv | 6th Jan 12, 1:31pm 1325809896

Australia is a 2-product, 2-customer wonder. If either China or Japan has a problem, so does Australia.

To import a car (let’s say 2 tons, $30,000), Australia has to export 214 tonnes of iron ore or 248 tonnes of coal, leading to unfavorable the terms of trade.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-2-product-2-customer-wonder-called-australia

by Andrewj | 6th Jan 12, 2:04pm 1325811886

Aussie has done some good deals. Last year they sold a gas field of the west coast to Japan on a long term contract, value 40 billion. Japan is going away from nuclear and will be looking for long term security of supply for its coal fired plants. Still a lucky country.

by goNZ | 6th Jan 12, 2:17pm 1325812652

Hey - this could be a fracking like Chch-

There's been a 4.1 magnitude quake in the North Island.

The quake, 12:50 pm, was centred ten kilometres north-west of Hawera.

It had a focal depth of thirty kilometres and was felt by some in Taranaki.

by Elley | 6th Jan 12, 2:57pm 1325815060

We've just had a 5.0, 5km deep: just another day in Canterbury.

by OMG | 6th Jan 12, 3:16pm 1325816164

Speckles was right about the reports he saw.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/expect-aftershocks-continue-gns-4676913

Aftershocks could continue to rattle Canterbury for the next three decades, experts believe.

Seismologists from GNS Science have today briefed city councillors, MPs and the media on the latest quake information.

GNS Science seismologist Kelvin Berryman has warned that Canterbury could suffer off and on quakes for decades.

by goldenfox | 6th Jan 12, 4:31pm 1325820671

Seismologists are just about as reliable as economists and tarot card readers

by speckles | 6th Jan 12, 5:15pm 1325823328

They are doing a bit better than economists...they had a handle on this by March last year..they are starting to disclose...

by Elley | 6th Jan 12, 4:48pm 1325821688

Great. Apparently Mt Oxford got a mention when they were talking about the possibility of larger events - M8 or so. I'm looking at it from my living room, in a different light I must say! I missed the live streaming, hopefully a video will be made available later.

I used to think about Elvis' song, "I'm all shook up", with every large quake or aftershock. Now quite a few friends seem to haved moved on to "Should I stay or should I go", and I am pondering if I should to.

by Mike B | 6th Jan 12, 3:29pm 1325816946

Re: "Sorry. The lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock"

This goes on to say

"countries more than doubled the level of debt -- to an estimated grand total of $55 trillion by the end of 2011."

My god, $55 Trillion,how much is that?

If you spent $1 million dollars every day since the birth of Jesus you still would not have spent $1 trillion (read that somewhere).

As most of the worlds population is poor then who the hell are these trillionairs lending all this money?

by OMG | 6th Jan 12, 4:16pm 1325819803

It's created electronically, literally plucked out of thin air. Scary ain't it!

by Andrewj | 6th Jan 12, 5:06pm 1325822818

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

One of our consistent themes at TAE has been not expecting solutions to come from the top down. Existing centralized systems depend on dwindling tax revenues, which will dry up to a tremendous extent over the next few years as economic activity falls off a cliff and property prices plummet.

We have already seen cuts to services and increases in taxes and user fees, and we can expect a great deal more of that dynamic as central authorities emulate hypothermic bodies. In other words, they will cut off the circulation to the fingers and toes in order to preserve the body temperature of the core. This is, of course, a survival strategy, from the point of view of the core. But it does nothing good for the prospects of ordinary people, who represent the fingers and toes.

Centralized systems also depend on the political legitimacy that has been conferred upon them as a result of public trust in them to serve the common interest. This trust is rapidly breaking down in an ever-expanding list of places, as ordinary people realize that their interests have been betrayed in favour of the well connected.

by skudiv | 6th Jan 12, 5:46pm 1325825206

Ordinary people are stuffed! They have no say, no voice, no votes don't matter, they have no way to change the system. Check out Greece.

by Wolly | 6th Jan 12, 6:39pm 1325828343

Not so quick skudiv...the power of the peasants is only just starting to dawn on them...mass movements are so much easier to organise with the systems today...only a matter of time before the targetted actions begin.

First you have to wait for the overpowering stench of the recession to sink into the grey matter...when it dawns on the Y gen that they have been left carrying the can...oh man what fun there will be.

Consider what will happen if a massive number of school leavers give higher ed and student debts the big finger....the screams from the Beehive will drown out the laughter in the Old Boys Clubrooms on the Terrace....

Jobs left a legacy this new gen are still blind to.

by skudiv | 6th Jan 12, 7:18pm 1325830696

I really hope so Wolly, most people don't even know whats going on. All they know is that its f'd up and BS.

by Andrewj | 6th Jan 12, 5:14pm 1325823260

http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

by Kunst | 6th Jan 12, 5:42pm 1325824923

More interesting information around the development in Iran.

If the military vessels and warships of any country want to pass via the Strait of Hormoz without coordination and permission of Iran's Navy forces, they should be stopped by the Iranian Armed Forces," Nader Qazipour told FNA, explaining about the contents of the plan.

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9007270216

"China and Iran have normal and transparent trade and energy exchanges that do not contravene UN Security Council resolutions. The dealings in question should not be affected (by sanctions),” the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman pointed out.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/219268.html

Top 10 buyers of Iran's oil

http://www.kippreport.com/2012/01/top-10-buyers-of-irans-oil/

by skudiv | 7th Jan 12, 7:30am 1325874625

The more they talk like this, the more speculators will push up the price of oil. Iran exports oil, so this is great for business. OPEC wants to stop the USD monopoly on oil trading, so the US sanctions are also helpful. The whole situation is ridiculous, I could care less if Iran had nukes, or even a nuclear power plant. Every other dictatorship, banana republic and fascist union has them, gimme a break.

Iran has 10% of the worlds oil, taking the oil ensures US dominance of oil, and will weaken China's position.

by Kunst | 6th Jan 12, 6:12pm 1325826768

Switzerland's powerful central bank has been forced to publish embarrassing details about a controversial currency trade by chairman Philipp Hildebrand's wife that netted her a Sfr75,000 (£50,000) profit, to fend off a brewing political scandal.

David - this isn’t new for insiders. The top bangsters and government stick together doing doggy business – these buddies are covering up each other – daily.

Here another one of many - political highly influential for year – greedy and corrupt.

http://www.zurich4you.ch/blocher_is_playing_second_fiddle.html?PHPSESSID=9f05f52b674991c12d1c081b31900a46

by Leadbelly | 7th Jan 12, 11:50am 1325890240

The moral bankruptcy of many in positions of power and trust, who have generally enjoyed every benefit and leg up from the sheer luck of birthright, staggers me.

This family would not need a free 50K at all I speculate. I wonder what they spent it on?

by Wolly | 7th Jan 12, 11:59am 1325890761

Probably charity leadbelly...a donation....to the leading political party in the country...!

by Leadbelly | 7th Jan 12, 1:48pm 1325897311

To act in this way while there being no need demonstates the environment of impunity such people exist in.

This type of behavior by people in power is so damaging to society, and should be punished as such. Odds of that? Near zero I reckon, no matter how much or many of the populice screams for it. And then these same said people will continuously bemoan the state of society. Classic.

by Wolly | 6th Jan 12, 6:47pm 1325828829

"Ah so...govt must encourage peasants to get fat"

"But Minister Chen...who is Fat?"

"What who is Fat ...I say must get fat"

"But Minister...how can peasants be expected to get Fat when no know who is Fat to get Fat?"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/china-to-boost-consumption-amid-global-slowdown-chen-says-1-.html

"China will roll out measures to boost consumption this year as it strives to meet challenges posed by a global slowdown, Commerce Minister Chen Deming said"

by Andrewj | 6th Jan 12, 6:50pm 1325829056

an interesting read

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/12/chemistry-of-empire-last-ro…

by scarfie | 6th Jan 12, 9:40pm 1325839236

"In the 5th century, the Roman Empire had been running out of reactants. It had been growing on the profits made from military campaigns but, at some point around the 2nd century, it had reached its limits. With no more easy conquests in sight, the Empire had to live on its own resources and it never really learned how to do that. The empire, simply, could not tax its subjects high enough to support the troops it kept. Over and over, the Empire continued to spend more than it could afford for defense. It is typical of empires all over history: empires destroy themselves by spending too much for their military apparatus."

Exactly what PDK, Steven and co keep saying. Economics and politics always boil down to resources, or lack thereof eventually. Seems likely we are staring such a shortage in the face. So while people level the allegation of Malthus(I like how Malt is in that name), it is actually a matter of being rational to prepare for an envitable decline, or even optimistic of the opportunities.

This bit I see as particularly encouraging "Middle Ages meant getting rid of the suffocating imperial bureaucracy".

by Andrewj | 7th Jan 12, 8:26am 1325877966

Its the two paragraphs after that one that are important to us.

>>>.

Managing any large structure is difficult and we tend to do it badly; a whole empire may be an especially difficult case. To do it well, we would need to use a method that I mentioned before: system dynamics; which is a way to describe systems and the relation of the various elements that compose them. But it is rare that people can understand systems in this way. What happens instead is that, in most cases, we understand what are the critical points ("levers") that are causing troubles, but we tend to act on them in the wrong way. It is something that we learned in our times from Donella Meadows (like Placidia, a strong woman, although not an Empress) who has taught us a lot about system dynamics. It is a very general trend: almost always we pull the levers in the wrong direction and we worsen the problems that we are trying to solve. That is even too clear for the case of the Roman Empire, at least from our viewpoint. During the decline phase, Roman Emperors struggled to keep the Empire safe from Barbarian invasions and they understood that their problem was that they didn't have enough resources to do that. But their answer was always the wrong one: they kept trying to raise as many troops as they could. That was a self-defeating idea: every time that the Romans fought the Barbarians, they could win or lose, but each battle made the Empire a little poorer and a little weaker. The empire was using resources that could not be replaced; non renewable resources, as we would say today.

So, wasn't there a solution for the troubles of the Roman Empire? Well, there was one if you think in terms of system dynamics. It is a question of pulling the levers in the right direction. By raising troops and fighting battles, the Roman Emperors were pulling the levers in the wrong direction. They had to invert the direction: the solution was not more troops but less troops. It was not more imperial bureaucracy but less, not more of a tax burden but less. In the end, the solution was right there and it was simple: it was Middle Ages.

by OMG | 7th Jan 12, 2:24am 1325856240

Many of us, my wife and I included, aspire to live independently, growing our own food and if possible supplying our own energy. We already have our "bolt hole" organised, I might add.

This however does not fit the corporate, state control/big government model. Imagine if we were able to generate our own electricity using a newly developed non invasive technology, (a lot of people are working on this and we may well be surprised some time), which renders the SOE generators and transpower near worthless. How will the govt react?

Take a look at this TAE post which looks at aspects of this.In particular look at the issue of free lance food production and the videos.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2012/01/january-3-2012-storm-surge-of.html

Now check out the NZ Govt Food Bill and consider if you would like to sign the petition against it.

http://www.petitiononline.co.nz

The issue is getting some traction in the media, although somewhat confused.

/http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/rural/6220468/Food-protests-sowing-panic

The watermelons on this site will find this all very confusing, should they be libertarians or plump for state controlled UN inspired meddling in people's lives, more taxes and more regulation?

by skudiv | 7th Jan 12, 7:17am 1325873855

Good one OMG. The only way to beat the system is by gaining the ability to be independent from the monetary system. Nanny state is seeking more control, via making people more dependent on the system.

It's not about being a libertarian, it's about being sick of all the crap thats going down. Getting as self sufficient as possible, is also a wise investment for the future, and future generations.

With technological unemployment, low hanging fruit gone, increasing energy and food costs, society is facing a paragdime shift, definatly within my lifetime. As they say "make hay while the sun shines."

You cannot solve a problem, by using the same thinking that caused the problem - Albert Einstien.

by steven | 7th Jan 12, 9:34am 1325882055

Self generation....not sure on the economics, 2million houses each with their own "generator"? .....but I cant see it as a bad thing generally.......the key for me anyway is a low technolgy solution....ie easy to make, and repair....and localisation....lasts a long time....water wheels/turbines for instance.....low tech, effective, last a long time a perfect technology IMHO.

Stoneleigh - one i listen to very closely, she sees the big pictures......her timing is suspect, but thats hard to do when ppl try and circumvent the fundimentals she sees.....

"What we must do is to decentralize - to build parallel systems to deliver the most basic goods and services in ways that are simple, cheap and responsive to rapidly changing circumstance."

"Also: rediscovery of local knowledge as to life conditions in the absence of current creature comforts, removing obstructive bylaws, small-scale food production free from structural dependencies on expensive and energy-intensive inputs, community power initiatives, communal water access, basic water treatment (like aid agencies employ in the third world), and perhaps intentional communities."

With just in time etc we have gone for efficiency because of costs/profit....this means little fat or resiliance...

Growing your own food....not sure if or what is behind that....I certainly am not happy on it....

regards

by Wolly | 7th Jan 12, 10:02am 1325883744

Best bolt holes are in remote places OMG and those who have them keep their gobs shut...lose lips lead to council trips!

We can have wood fired steam power plants and natural gas too...great having a swamp on site...and a mountain of manuka...stuff grows quicker then one can cut it.

No need for that solar stuff...power supply is endless.

by OMG | 7th Jan 12, 3:10pm 1325902229

Thanks, guys,

Glad you found the post of interest. Darn right about councils, Wolly, have had very unacceptable experiences with one in particular.

The block is 15 acres ( part of a farm ) and about half in firewood pines, small dam and with a rustic but solid building, which with a little modifcation, can be made into a modest but very comfortable home. Been planning this for a couple of years.

by powerdownkiwi | 7th Jan 12, 10:32pm 1325928754

OMG - in all of that, you're on the right track.

There are two valid moves in the face of what's coming: to prepare for it yourself, and to encourage your society/community to prepare for it.

Clearly, any system which becomes obsolete, will have leaders who have become obsolete. Clearly, the change will be 'bottom-up, indeed change has never been instigated any other way.

The problem is that we are too late, and as posters like HughP and PB etc here show, we're not getting there across the board. That's the way it is - every time a Magellan or a Galileo or a Darwin challenges things, those with vested interests dig their heels in.

Luckily, we only have to get across the 50% threshold, and that can be done with real folk, without the vested-interest-in-the-status-quo types.

You're late, though - you're behind us, and we think we're late.

The Food Bill will go the way of the Building Act, and a lot of other legislation. That's not because they were bad law, or particularly badly intended , but desperate people just have to survive. Buy the time 'the desperate' includes those who considered themselves upper middle class, it's goodbye rule, whether it be by vote or protest.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 7th Jan 12, 11:23pm 1325931798

Ah geez , back into your lead-lined bunkers , sucking organic tofu & agarica juice , and recycling your own turds for the tiger-worm farm ........ you guys !

Bernard's not even here , and yet gloomsterisation breaks out like spots on a leper without him ........ that man is like an economic gloomy guss virus ....... break out the emergency supplies of Anti-Hickeystamines !

.... some of us still reckon the world's a real beaut place . Not without it's faults . But real beaut nonetheless .

by skudiv | 8th Jan 12, 7:27am 1325960847

"Prepear for bad times and you will know only good"

Worm farm toilets sound fantastic, I'm going to get one in the future. A vast improvement on Wellingtons dumping of raw sewrage out into the sea. A dairy farmer spills cowshit on the ground and gets a fine (because cows don't shit on the ground) while councils pump raw human shit straight out to sea. Even in your Euphoria Gummy, leave the worm farms alone.

Despite the moaners and groaners, whiners and complainers crying out for govt interference, my business is booming. Things are looking on target to reach my goals, opportunity abounds for the cashflow conscious investor.

People are pessimistic because times have changed, the new abnormal is here, get used to it.

"oh the times they are a changin"

Something somehow has to give, oil is finite, population is growing, debt levels are high, technological unemployment is causing cuts to the labour force. These trends, and many others are set to continue into the future. This is a great opportunity to plan for the future, instead of living paycheck to paycheck and hoping the govt will take care of the rest.

by Banksterbasher | 8th Jan 12, 6:21pm 1326000088

I understand Wellington has sorted its sewage system out, It has been some time since raw sewage has been discharged into the sea as a matter of general practice. I could be wrong.

by skudiv | 8th Jan 12, 10:43pm 1326015823

Swimmers and surfers are warned to stay out of the water in Lyall Bay following an overflow at the Moa Point sewage treatment plant today. The overflow has been caused by today’s heavy and persistent rainfalls.

http://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=41489

by OMG | 8th Jan 12, 12:44am 1325936682

Holy tofu batman! We were on the same wavelength and you didn't know it. That's the problem with the anonymous nature of the net we do not know who we are really talking to.

However, I do believe in the preponderant goodness and ingenuity in people and once the liquid energy issue becomes more apparent people in cities will band together to help each other, "village" groupings if you like - just imagine if the households in a cul de sac coperate with each other. Most will have usable space in a backyard for food and poultry/rabbits. People in Mcmansions will be able to subdivide their houses for family forced to return home, etc. There will be an uncomfortable transition, but energy use - including electricity will, I believe drop, as austerity, the new normal kicks in. Even under these circumstances we can be happy - if we choose to. We do not have a responsibility to try to force people to whatever viewpoints we have. For a start we may be wrong. Societal and economic challenges can only be adapted to on an individual basis.

The best preparation - get out of debt, and divest yourself of unneccessary "stuff" My wife and I have done that - still have a houselot of quality furniture, which we can reduce further as needed by giving it away. Had three vehicles, sold two and gave the third away - a Honda Odyssey

We will have to agree to disagree on catastrophic warming. I have been following this issue very closely for years and came from a completely neutral position. Warmism like the fascism and communism which precceded it will have it's brief day in the sun.

One more thing. Despite claims to the contrary I have not lied on this board about either myself or any other matter. Not that I give a tinkers cuss if a few choose to believe otherwise. I post here mostly for entertainment and read the board and site for the great links and expert and highly intelligent comment from many of the well known posters. I do not pretend to be in the same league as them, I'm not. I am working at home most of the day and once that stops - time unknown as I have just renewed my residency here in HK - and I move on, I will most likely "disappear"

The last comment in my rant is a polite request - the boards here have been disrupted and I have played a part in that, although to be honest, unwillingly and reactively. Posters just have to accept that we have differences and not be abusive or sarcastic. Remember the people you piss off could end up being the very people you need. Let moderation rule the day and those reluctant to post here and who could make a wonderful contribution might just do so,

Cheers to all

OMG

by Gummy Bear Hero | 8th Jan 12, 10:52am 1325973147

[ My comment was targeted at those who sit on the right & the left of Captain Calamity Hickey , his Staff Acolytes of Gloom , PDK & steven .... sorry for the mix up .... but hey , at least the earthquakes have stopped , Gummy has the cure ....]

by Leadbelly | 7th Jan 12, 4:17pm 1325906240

Signed the petition against the food bill OMG, thanks for the link. I can only come to the conclusion that this bill has come about because of the success of farmers markets etc and the threat they pose to big business, who are the only ones with the levers/resources to apply pressure to our rulemakers.

Wonder what leverage is being used behind the scenes?

How strong is the lobbyist set in NZ? We are constantly portrayed as one of the least corrupt countries and in my experience that is largely true. That said we cannot afford to be complacent. The implications of parts of this bill should concern us all.

by Andrewj | 7th Jan 12, 4:39pm 1325907585

I think I read its about a WTO treaty we signed, we are coming into line with the good old USA, just off the top of my memory I could be wrong. I think the ex head of Monsanto is the USA rep on the WTO and this is just I suspect the beginning of a corporate push for wider use of GM crops. I think we need to remember that Politicians today are nothing more than cheap hookers selling their wares to higest bidder.

Look at the last few years, we have had ex MPs ambassadors in London and DC. Helen Clarke probably got to the UN by putting troops in Afghanistan and ships in the Gulf. Carter is in the Cooks and the Speaker is heading somewhere, London or DC. Bolger is on boards and Cullen is too. Shipley and Ruth are weathy on the back of their'political connections'. Its a giant disgusting big trough, and ours are up to their necks in it.

by Andrewj | 7th Jan 12, 4:46pm 1325907965

read it and weep

http://www.agritrade.org/about/member_bios.html

even more

http://www.mindfully.org/Farm/Green-Revolution-Revolving.htm

by Andrewj | 7th Jan 12, 5:02pm 1325908923

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isSdXjxeZjo&feature=youtu.be

by Leadbelly | 7th Jan 12, 5:03pm 1325908983

Thanks for the links Andrewj, will definitely read up.

Monsanto eh, that gives me the creeps. They own most of the seed distributors here already.

Pink faced liars run that outfit.

by Leadbelly | 7th Jan 12, 5:16pm 1325909790

Very interesting indeed, thankyou.

by Andrewj | 7th Jan 12, 5:30pm 1325910656

In accordance with the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Codex Alimentarius scheme for global food control, the NZ Food Bill, if passed, will essentially transfer primary control of food from individuals to corporations under the guise of food safety

Learn more:http://www.naturalnews.com/034337_New_Zealand_food_freedom_human_rights.html#ixzz1ik9RL79a

http://www.anh-europe.org/campaigns/codex

http://www.usdec.org/Market/InternationalOrganizations.cfm?navItemNumbe…

The Global Food Security Act

The Legislation

On February 5, 2009, Senators Lugar and Bob Casey(D-PA) reintroduced the Lugar Casey Global Food Security Act, S.384.

In his floor statement, Senator Lugar said:

"Food insecurity is a global tragedy, but it is also an opportunity for the United States. The United States is the indisputable world leader in agricultural production and technology. A more focused effort on our part to join with other nations to increase yields, create economic opportunities for the rural poor, and broaden agricultural knowledge could begin a new era in U.S. diplomacy. Such an effort could improve our broader trade relations and serve as a model for similar endeavors in the areas of energy and scientific cooperation. Achieving food security for all people also would have profound implications for peace and U.S. national security. Hungry people are desperate people, and desperation often sows the seeds of conflict and extremism."

Initially introduced on September 23, 2008, the legislation calls for:

Creating a Special Coordinator for Global Food Security and that would be in charge of developing a food security strategy;
Reorienting U.S. foreign aid toward rural development and agriculture; and
Improving the U.S. emergency response to food crises by creating a separate Emergency Food Assistance Fund that can make local and regional purchases of food, where appropriate.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing on April 22, 2010, entitled, "Promoting Global Food Security: Next Steps for Congress and the Administration." At this hearing, Senator Lugar said, "We live in a world where more than one billion people suffer from chronic food insecurity – a figure that has increased by nearly 100 million people since Senator Casey and I introduced legislation just last year. An estimated 25,000 people die each day from malnutrition-related causes. Experts advise us that chronic hunger leads to decreased child survival, impaired cognitive and physical development of children, and weaker immune system function, including resistance to HIV/AIDS."

http://lugar.senate.gov/food/legislation/

oh yeh, are we going to get screwed.

by Wolly | 7th Jan 12, 6:33am 1325871195

The run on the bank deposits across Europe is underway if not reported as such...banks are failing...the domino are falling....the pollies are throwing taxpayer dosh at the holes..the ECB has joined in the game while stating publicly it will not print and buy piigs bonds or supply cheap as chips loot to broke banks .....borrowed dosh, printed dosh.....who will buy your Euro when the pollies put their dirty hands up....nobody.

by Wolly | 7th Jan 12, 7:05am 1325873133

Wolly's new year wish comes true....

"Kirstie Alley believes that altering her choice of partners will improve her love life.

The 60-year-old actress is currently single and ready to mingle after shedding 100lbs of weight last year.

Alley admits that she has not made the best choices in terms of romantic relationships in the past.

She is determined to change her habits in 2012.

"[I usually go for] psychos [and] players. I'm thinking ugly men might be the solution," Alley said on The Ellen DeGeneres Show. "I'm talking about butt ugly. Because I go for really handsome men and I think butt ugly would be appreciative."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/entertainment/6223349/Kirstie-Alley-wants-to-date-ugly-men

by skudiv | 7th Jan 12, 7:21am 1325874108

HARRRRRRR.

Good luck. Year of the Dragon.

by Wolly | 7th Jan 12, 9:26am 1325881561

She loves me...she's rich...who cares...same filosoffy as the govt SL...they suck up the banks cos they have the power to imagine up the credit...tis true...it's a power the stupid govt allowed the RBNZ to dish out to all who want to be a bank....LVR's with no ceilings...leaverage to hell and then some.... govt don't give a stuff SL..cos the banks love the govt...and boy oh boy is govt an ugly parcel of shite.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 7th Jan 12, 9:55am 1325883338

BigDaddy is finally in with a chance ! ....... getcha lard arse off that MacDonald's stool , buddy ....... and waddle over to Kirstie's house . She's hot for a guy 'like you !

......and take your collection of Ollie Newland books too ,... read to her , she wants romance ....

by Wolly | 7th Jan 12, 10:41am 1325886073

You keep you eyes off my Kirstie Gummy....here's a bone for you to slobber over...

"Payroll growth in the U.S. beat forecasts in December and the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in almost three years as the economy gained strength heading into 2012."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-06/u-s-payrolls-gain-more-than-expected-200-000-jobless-rate-falls-to-8-5-.html

Enjoy your bone Gummy cos in a few days the truth will leak out that the grand payroll growth is a fake...humbug...BS....spin....lies....you know the story....

Here go Gummy.....the real story

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

But wait...there's more Gummy:

"Delivery companies such as FedEx Corp. (FDX) and United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) added 42,200 jobs to payrolls in December, about a fifth of the total for all employers last month. History indicates the gain will be followed by a similar-sized loss in January" bloomberg

Harrrrrrrrrrrrhahahaha hahahahaaaaaa

by skudiv | 7th Jan 12, 8:30pm 1325921452

Yet the unemployment rate trickery still continues, with labor force participation (prior revised), now at a 27 year low of 64%, and the labor force itself declined by 50K from 153,937 to 153,887. In fact, persons not in the labor force have increased by 7.5 million since January 2007! Bottom line - dropping out of labor statistics is the new killing it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nfp-payrolls-200k-expected-155k-unemployment-rate-drops-85

by Gummy Bear Hero | 7th Jan 12, 11:38pm 1325932684

You're safe there Wolly . Gummy's not a Kirstie Alley sort of guy ....... I like a woman with brains , rather than beauty . A sophisticate . A woman of high moral rectitude . Someone with a broad palette of talents . A benefactor of mankind . Compassionate , selfless .

...... someone like Paris Hilton , I guess .....

by Wolly | 8th Jan 12, 7:00am 1325959205

Yeah but Kirstie's only 28..... right Gummy? Brains don't count at 28....

by Wolly | 7th Jan 12, 10:13am 1325884410

Sick...bloody sick...

No sooner had the deaths of 11 in a balloon disaster hit the Herald page on the web.....than up pops an advertisment with a link...locate florists in your area...and a picture of roses...how low can they go.

by We Are Stuffed | 7th Jan 12, 10:31am 1325885464

Saw that, got to be a hungry salesman to chase ambulances like that.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 7th Jan 12, 10:32am 1325885569

.. and the link takes you to a listing of florists in the Yellow Pages .

That is macabre . Truely sick .

by Andrewj | 7th Jan 12, 10:29am 1325885340

Banksters - William Black tells the real truth

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=as5Xq4_TDos&feature=player_embedded

by Wolly | 7th Jan 12, 10:50am 1325886612

You've heard of the 'bread and butter' companies haven't you....well here's the shite left in the NZX rubbish bucket.... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10777181

by Gummy Bear Hero | 7th Jan 12, 11:00am 1325887247

..... it's amazing the connection that exists between speculative high-tech companies and speculative mining firms . Having followed the ASX since 1985 , I've witnessed many a morph of a failed tech company into it's complete opposite , an open pit of rare earths near Ulan Bator ....

The once high flying medical stock that promised to cure warts with extracts from deep-sea electric eels' spleens ...... re-emerges years laster , transformed into a promising uranium mine in Mozambique ....

by Amanda Morrall | 7th Jan 12, 11:25am 1325888706

Nice to see you haven't lost your edge in 2012 Gummy. Happy new year.

Amanda

by Gummy Bear Hero | 7th Jan 12, 11:28pm 1325932100

Eagerly awaiting more of the yoga stories , Amanda ...... ummm ... don't forget the photos that accompany them ...

... happy New Year !

by skudiv | 7th Jan 12, 11:10am 1325887800

Some good ad's for silver

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IiarVvZguY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCCuLMgyUgY

by Wolly | 7th Jan 12, 11:56am 1325890594

I wonder if the chch CEO is reading this: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32494.html

I wonder too how much he is costing each ratepayer..

And I wonder how many of the CEO's council mates will be losers in the next chch local elections!

by skudiv | 7th Jan 12, 9:01pm 1325923317

Paul Krugman 1978: The theory of interstellar trade.

Now that SETI has found some interesting signals from deep space 9

BREAKING NEWS

Princeton, NJ -- Upon potential discovery of alien life, we asked Nobel Prize* winning economist Paul Krugman what he thought about the development. "Its great," he said, "I just hope they aren't friendly!"

*Not actually a Nobel Prize but rather a phony award sponsored by the oldest central bank on the planet.

Wouldn't it be appalling if we get visited by advanced aliens, and find out they're ruled by an elite bankster cabal too?

"Take us to your banker, debt-serf" will be their first words.

"We have come to spread freedom to your planet - and then you will accept the fiat currency of our monetary system, the Xrpkkliklkilkiliklki, and experience growth* to infinity and beyond!"

*nominal growth, natch

by powerdownkiwi | 7th Jan 12, 11:06pm 1325930798

Interesting, if a bit once-over-lightly.

http://www.energybulletin.net/media/2012-01-06/heinberg-kunstler-foss-orlov-chomsky-public-affair

Telling that Chomsky is the weakest from a logic point of view. Says a lot about lefties being no use where we're going, unless they're logical too.

by Nic the NZer | 8th Jan 12, 3:37am 1325947022

Not sure why you would characterise Chomskys contribution as less illogical. He was postulating that Mr. Yergin probably believes what he encourages. I think thats a reasonable assumption if you have not seen any contradictory actions. He was also pointing out that if Mr. Yergin is correct that would be an even bigger environmental disaster than if he is wrong.

I too don't believe there is any physical balance where by the amount of oil created by the planet can't seriously change the climate is any significant way. The sooner peak oil arives the better for the climate (given you accept the balance of scientific research on the topic). Its pure euphamism to think that peak oil will mitigate climate change, if the worlds population wants to reduce the effects of climate change then it is necessary to reduce the rate of CO2 emissions already. This was basically agreed when the Kyoto protocol was signed.

I actually think that the economic argument made in the final paragraph is rather weak. Since money is entirely a man made construct the prices are also a man made construct. If the only problem with 'clean' coal is a price based one then governments are capable of finding ways to make the process cheap enough to be functional. What is physically possible is financially possible.

Peak oil is not a physical disaster, though it will have significant economic effects on the structure of the economy and most peoples way of life.

by steven | 8th Jan 12, 7:49am 1325962187

Money is indeed a man made construct.....its a proxy or an IOU on future energy.....everything comes back to energy.

Govns cant do diddly except at the margins......I dont know where you get that idea from......they never reduce costs like this...they spend/waste, they pick "winners" which are guaranteed to be losers...... Its not a case of "cheap" in terms of money for "clean coal" its energy return on energy invested, which for an economy and society like ours neds to be no less than 10 to 1......PDK mentioned 8 to 1 but personally I think even 10 to 1 is possibly to low.....

Not sure what you mean by physical disaster.....we eat 10 to 30 calories of fossil fuel for 1 of food.....we can only feed 7 billion by doing so.....therefore when oil output declines so will population....I cant see how that will be quiet and gradual.....more like riots etc....strikes me as very physical.

Peak oil and AGW, not sure on that being good, problem is ppl/nations will be desperate. For instance there is talk of using the lignite on south island for fertilizer....its crappy stuff and the process will be hughely AGW and the EROEI will suck.....I think we will do it though.....

regards

by Nic the NZer | 8th Jan 12, 8:51am 1325965909

My point about financial matters is that there is absolutely nothing natural about the price of something. This means that what is physically possible is financially possible to a very large extent. The main limitation being what 'reforms' populations are willing to put up with. As Chomsky points out there appears to be a petrolium industry subsidy running through the US military budget. I think its reasonable to assume that 'creative' measures will be applied out of desperation when it comes to peak energy. You can hardly rely on any kind of price assumptions which happen to apply today, because mostly these are changeable according to the rules and demands of the time.

Also there is hardly a tangible link between money and energy, though prices and the structure of the economy might well rely on natural resources being available. There are considerable number externalities in all prices showing clearly there is hardly a tangible link between the prices now and some quantity of energy. There was money and credit long before the world economy became totally dependent on oil.

What ever the results of peak oil, it will clearly be better for them to occur sooner rather than later when AGW is less advanced. In all probability the best date to face up to this has already passed.

by steven | 8th Jan 12, 4:33pm 1325993587

Peak oil is a physical limit, and again I will re-iterate thats...energy return on enrgy invested.....or the physical work "profit".....if you cannot profit energy wide by a 10 to 1 or more factor you are out of business.

Im not so sure you can totally dis-locate money from physical work....but its certainly possible to remove money and still function, all be it back at somewhere like the stone age.

Chomsky, Im not so sure he's right or can see bigger things.....Im still scratching my head on why Peak Oil seems to be a non-event for so many "thinkers" let alone the non-thinkers....unless its a mind block through fear.....no one seems to want to mention it, its tabu....it seems.

Peak oil, not so sure on its good effect on AGW, as I suspect in desperation "we" will use anything no matter how dirty. However its likely that there isnt enough fossil fuel to casue a 6Deg C rise, which is terminal for us as a species....though I wonder if 4Deg C wont be enough to ruin our "society - civilisation"....

regards

by steven | 8th Jan 12, 7:47am 1325962076

Darwinism.....anyone with political blinkers is of no use......those with open minds that can see stand the best chance. The old pollies, well I cant see they understand at all...so they will make way for the new, eventually...

regards

by Andrewj | 8th Jan 12, 8:38am 1325965136

It's a Man vs. Machine Recovery Companies have been buying technology instead of hiring, and Okun's Law is broken

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/its-a-man-vs-machine-recovery-0105…

Japan

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/08/opinion/sunday/the-true-story-of-japa…

by skudiv | 8th Jan 12, 9:07am 1325966845

This trend is destined to continue, the working class is gonna get Butthurt. As the economy, and social conditioning forces people to work, in a world where work is becoming obselete, this can end very well, or very badly. Another outcome I should see in my lifetime.

I could be replaced with a few machines and some software, all of which exists today, and I doubt I am the only one. Make hay while the sun shines.

One day I would hope to see a resource based economy, where the monotonous and mind numbing jobs are all done with technology, a world without money. Where education is free, and people live in a world of abundance. It's either that or the inequality gap will explode, and everyone will be poor except the resource owners.

by Andrewj | 8th Jan 12, 8:55am 1325966153

GLOBAL CRISIS EXCLUSIVE: US LABOUR STATISTICS OFFER NO SIGN OF A REAL RECOVERY AT ALL.

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/global-crisis-exclusive-us-labou…

by steven | 8th Jan 12, 7:36pm 1326004563

Of course it doesnt, but any "good" news no matter how pathetic in reality is essentaial in a confidence/ponzi game....

regards

by skudiv | 8th Jan 12, 9:29am 1325968169

There is no hope: Diagram

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/banzai7-there-no-hope-chart

by Gummy Bear Hero | 8th Jan 12, 10:39am 1325972345

I like the " we're not trying to make sensitive little girls depressed " part ....

..... how could they , when Bernard Hickey has the monoploy on that section of the " there's no hope " spectrum .

It's getting mighty competitve , in the rush to the bottom , of the dog-eat-dog world of gloomsterising ......

by powerdownkiwi | 8th Jan 12, 9:45am 1325969153

Skudiv - lots of folk make the mistake of confusing technology with physics.

It still takes the same number of kilojoules to raise a tonne up 1000 metres, that it always has. The trucks are a little more efficient (but not much, diesels have always been injected, and tyre pressures haven't changed much) but that's it.

No amount of technology will change that mass/height/work-done equation. (tunneling would do it, but takes energy to achieve too).

Nic - yes, there was 'money and credit' before peak oil. The point is that the debt was redeemable only if more activity happened, each go-round.

No more energy, no more bigger go-rounds, no more underwrite. So your comment - while light years ahead of some posters here it terms of thinking - is still assuming that what happened in the past, will continue.

That's the same trap that PB and Hughey and all the spinners fall into (or push cynically!).

Values of anything really relate to scarcity vs desire. On that basis, bling, beamers, and everything in between, will be less desired (will lose relative value). Energy, food, water, shelter (both built and potential) will be desired more. Indeed needed.

Evaluating that in $ numbers misses - and will continue to miss - the point. The only real value is what is actually available, divided by the number of folk who want it.

Energy, for instance, may not get any more expensive in $ terms. But - if average 'incomes' halve in the interim, then it's doubled in relative price.

Chomsky is smart, and his heart is honest, but (I just devoured some of his books on our recent voyage) he doesn't get it. He doesn't get it, in the same way that Labour don't get it.

by skudiv | 8th Jan 12, 11:15am 1325974508

An RBE, as opposed to monetary economics, values things differently. I may cost a lot of money to build more efficient towns, but the energy savings are through the roof. Likewise more self sufficient towns, with their own power generation, food supply and manufacturing. In a resource based economy it is the resources that are used economicaly, the costs and benefits are done similar to the EROI, and include depletion rates, total available, and based around the sustainable uses, managing them for future generations.

Geothermal, solar, wind, wave, tidal power etc are uneconomic in a monetary sense but make a lot of sense when you start to calculate the true value of resources.

You may look at it and say it costs this much to lift 1000kgs, another perspective may say, do we need to lift it? Is there another way, are there efficiencies if we do this differently etc? How much energy do we actually need, and how much is wasted. At school we are taught the shortest distance between to points is a straight line. Look at the roads of today.

The technology is there, the economics are not, it requires a pargdime shift in the way we think, and live. It's about more then the economy, it's about changing the social enviroment as well, people are brought up by their enviroment, and are products of the enviroment. Create an enviroment without scarecity, inequality, and social behaviour changes.

by David B | 8th Jan 12, 1:09pm 1325981343

PDK wrote - It still takes the same number of kilojoules to raise a tonne up 1000 metres, that it always has. The trucks are a little more efficient (but not much, diesels have always been injected, and tyre pressures haven't changed much) but that's it.

You would make a consummate politician, PDK, with spin like that. You may well fool some around here with that crap, but I doubt you do most. Engines are now substantially more efficient than they were, so the amount of fuel they need to burn to liberate the required quota of energy to raise that one tonne 1000 meters is also less. Combustion engines are not 100% efficient and they never have been. They burn a lot more fuel than is required for their work precisely because they are not 100% efficient. However efficiency gains in combustion engines have and continue to be made. Magnify even a relatively small gain tens of thousands of times around the world every day, and you end up getting the same amount of work done for a lot less fuel burnt. More efficient engines means that less fuel needs to be consumed to achieve the same amount of work. Trying to muddy the waters by saying that as the energy required to move an object from point A to point B is a constant, (which it is) and therefore does not change, thereby making changes to engine efficiencies irrelevant is dishonest in my view, and is not the full story.

Are you actually capable of bringing anything new to the dialogue on this site, or are you going to take all threads off topic with your usual rants?

by Banksterbasher | 8th Jan 12, 11:34pm 1326018875

I think the point he was making was even if a combustion engine was 100% efficient, but the energy was not available to fuel the engine that cargo aint going to get to were it needs to be.

We will not be enough easy energy to go around so hard changes will be forced upon us.

by steven | 9th Jan 12, 7:48am 1326048527

and you are supposed to be highly educated? and talk about a politicians answer but do the same yourself....The maths/physics theory is well understood.....in the real world efficiencies are improving very little, there will always be losses.

So you claim that we improve efficincy, so ok at most a few % per annum, yet our population's desire is to use 3 or 4% more per annum, pretty much cancelling out any gains.

Then throw in the population growth problem and its a double whammy.

Then throw in the decline in fossil fuels output and its a triple whammy....

The entire point is even with efficiency improvements there are limits and they are close....The population problem, and its a terminal problem due to numbers and their increasing use means that we will see a decline in real GDP, quality of life, services and in return we will get a huge change in employment and a far higher un-employment.....and we do nothing about it......

These speak of huge changes coming upon us within the decade, and all you try and do is pick holes in anyone who tries to point this out....

Are you actually capable of contributing anything positive? or put forward something(s) that negate that conclusion? Ive never seen it yet.

regards

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Jan 12, 9:11am 1326053479

DavidB -

I was using the example, to point out the difference between 'technology', and immutable laws of physics.

Muddying the waters, it is not. (We could go into the 35-40% thermal efficiency of diesel engines, rolling resistance, air resistance, but not here).

I note that you failed to answer my recent question, re growth, and what rate thereof you think is sustainable. Please give it some thought. Note that economics has not, and cannot, disengage itself from physical resource underwriting. (ChrisJ replied in your silence, and fell into the trap I set for you; he attempted to assert that a small percentage is OK, and that we'd 'hardly scratched the surface'). I let him go - but he's wrong. Your petri dish analogy is better; ask yourself how many doubling-times from half-way (essentially where we are now) to finito. Ask if you can grow your rate of growth in the second half, while you're at it. Then please state whether it is valid to attempt to continue....

I suggest you do some homework - here's a Prof, in case you have a thing about who presents the info (note that the folk doing the hollering about limits, are physics profs, not economics ones).

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/tom-murphy-profile/

I suggest you read every one of his posts. Please be clear in your rebuttal, in the absense of which I'll be gracious in my acceptance of your apology.

by David B | 9th Jan 12, 10:37am 1326058629

You're an arrogant fool. Ok I'll play your game. Are you actually capable of bringing anything new to the dialogue on this site, or are you going to take all threads off topic with your usual rants?

Please be clear in your rebuttal, in the absence of which I'll be gracious in my acceptance of your apology.

I've got to the point where I'm not wasting anymore of my time with you or this site because of your constant crap. It’s time Hickey et al., exercised some editorial control around here.

by Plutocracy | 9th Jan 12, 11:41am 1326062498

Apology accepted!

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Jan 12, 11:42am 1326062539

Just read the reference please.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 20th Jan 12, 11:17pm 1327054630

What's up , DB ? ..... kind of boring around here , without your input ...... the Greenpeace-freakin'-leftie-save the slug nutters are running amok , without you & PhilBest , the " enforcers " , to keep them at bay ......

by DGCanuck | 8th Jan 12, 6:56pm 1326002187

PDK, I usually agree with what you say so I'm surprised you think Chomsky doesn't get it. I haven't read anything he's written in the last couple of years but in my view, Chomsky gets it big time.

I guess we need to define what 'it' is, haha.

by steven | 9th Jan 12, 7:58am 1326049137

I wonder if there isnt an understanding by some and possibly Chomsky is one that if we say we are in deep sh*te, he will be marginalised.....so maybe he's either doing what he can, or has decided to keep his mouth shut.

regards

by Nic the NZer | 9th Jan 12, 10:58am 1326059888

Thinking that peak oil has arrived, that the effects of this will be immediately a constraint on CO2 emissions, and that this will start people addressing global warming is pure euphamism. Thats the main point about any peak oil scenario Chomsky is making, if its here already and causes a reduction in CO2 emissions thats a best case scenario, but if its not or the effects are not immediately visible then its necessary to reduce CO2 emissions already.

Kunstler and Orlov appear to think that it's arrived but I have yet to determine what their analysis is based on. Kunstler appears to believe that it has had something to do with the financial crisis, but he also believes that the disipation of the USSR and their financial and social crisis was also related to peak energy some how. It appears to be similar with Orlov, whenever they are talking about financial crisis then they just segue to talk about energy crisis.

Kunstler also has some strange understandings of financial crisis, and thinks that hyper inflation is a potential result. But the triggers he sites are deflationary events like the collapse of shipping or energy industries. You don't get hyper inflation coming straight out of a depression, even the massive financial stimulus from world war 2 didn't cause hyper inflation. He doesn't have a clue in this area, something he readliy enough admits.

The current crisis is purely financial, the effects of the world economy restructuring due to loss of access to oil would be far, far worse. The eventual effect of un-mitigated global warming must be considered far worse however, potentially resulting in the planet becoming un-inhabitable.

You were not paying attention to what he said, if thats downplaying it.

by steven | 9th Jan 12, 2:21pm 1326072118

No, with peak oil what will happen is we will go for dirtier energy sources to get transport fuel, so coal, CO2 emmissions will rise faster.

"I have yet to determine peak oil", well "I" doesnt really matter, it has happened or will happen soon....anyway it was 2006 on current records, try googling, its well documented and reasoned.

Kustler - financial, I think Stoneleigh is more on the button, and yes deflationary IMHO....but the finance crisis will come first I strongly suspect aka Stonleigh.....but thats independant of Peak oil. Some say and I agree that the 2007~8 meltdown was triggered by $150 oil, I think so but it was going to happen anyway this is another great depression event. This present mess could be triggered by $100~120 oil sendign ud into another recession....expensive oil stops or reduces the ability to can kick to a later date as much...

AGW - un-inhabitable, for humans and as a society, yes.....super warm periods triggered millions of years of de-carbonising of the atmosphere until a balance is found again.....humans will be fossils by that stage.

"Paying attention" maybe I need to re-read but the info Ive seen on AGW, well the IPCC was an average or soft option....its looking way worse than the IPCC report suggested......the last 3~4 years are exceeding the worst estiamtes/margins in the models.....

regards

by Gummy Bear Hero | 8th Jan 12, 12:11pm 1325977874

In 2011 , the USA only imported 48 % of it's oil needs ........ shit-a-brick , Batman , they produced 52 % of the oil they use , on the USA itself !

..... and only 10 % of their oil consumption was sourced from the middle east .

Jeepers , what the facts will do to those buffoons who claim that " the USA is finished " , or that it's a war monger , after other countries' oil resources .

" Facts " ..... cute little critters , ain't they .

[ I wonder what % of NZ's oil useage is produced locally , hmmm ? ]

by skudiv | 8th Jan 12, 12:58pm 1325980694

So the reason the US is always picking fights is..............

US Citizens Killed 9/11 2,740

Killed in car accidents 2010: 32,788

US Troops killed since 9/11 3,541 (Afghanistan + Iraq)

Civilians Killed in Iraq since 2003 invasion 114,000

Civillians Killed in Afghanistan since 2001 invasion 10,000

American Govt is full of Pacifists, who care nothing for oil.

Here is the soundtrack

by Gummy Bear Hero | 8th Jan 12, 7:05pm 1326002719

...... they pick fights for the same reason that any bully does ; 'cos they're thick , they're tough , and they think that they know it all ......

What they fail to recognise is the unnecessary death of in excess of 300 000 American citizens annually ..... at the behest of some of the country's biggest companies ..........

.. the cigarette manufacturers !

Osama was a fool , killing Yanks by slamming aeroplanes into tall buildings is small potatoes , compared to what the tobacco industry gets away with ... Bin Laden should've peddled ciggies to Americans ! ..... puffing cancer sticks bumps off 100 times as many US citizens as Al Qaeda managed , and does so every single year ... year after ( cough cough , hack ) year ..

[ .. lest we get smug , 5600 NZ'rs die of lung cancer annually , twice as many people as were killed in the 9/11 terrorist attacks , twenty times NZ's annual road toll , 30 times the death roll from the February earthquake in Christchurch .. ]

by steven | 9th Jan 12, 8:15am 1326050119

Fact, the USA imports much oil from mexico....fact mexico's oil will soon no longer be available due to internal use and production drops....it will either have to import from the middle east, or elsewhere...

Fact, the USA produces ethonal internally using fertilizer which is natural gas made, the energy return on energy invested is 1 to 1 at best.....mexicans go hungry as a result....do your numbers include that?

So there is "oil" needs and there is "fuel" needs......in some cases the USA imports diesel and petrol already refined.....so its energy use is more like 22 to 24mbpd equivelent v the 8 it pumps out of the ground.....becareful on facts....

regards