90 seconds at 9 am

90 seconds at 9 am: US and European stocks firmer as Greek debt deal now seen passing; US jobs and business confidence firm in Feb; NZ$ at 81.9 USc

8th Mar 12, 8:31am by Bernard Hickey

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news that US and European stocks bounced overnight after positive signs emerged from the US jobs market and the negotiations around Greece's debt restructure.

Unofficial figures for US payrolls showed growth of 216,000 in February, raising hopes that official non-farm payrolls data due late on Friday night New Zealand time will show growth of 225,000. The Dow rose around 0.6% and European stocks rose around 0.7%, recovering somewhat from heavy falls on Tuesday night. See more here at Reuters.

Also US business confidence measured by one survey improved to its best level in a year, suggesting the US economy is improving. See more here at Reuters.

In Europe, Bloomberg reports more than 58% of Greece's creditors have agreed to a debt restructure and many now believe the percentage will get over the 75% threshold needed by the end of tonight to avoid a forced restructure, which would trigger Credit Default Swap contracts.

The New Zealand dollar firmed in line with appetites for riskier assets to 81.9 USc overnight, having fallen the previous night to 81.1 USc.

However, not everything is rosy across the Tasman.

Australian GDP grew just 0.4% in the December quarter, which was half what economists had expected. Australian stocks fell.See more here at Bloomberg.

Australia's remarkable run of growth through the last four years helped cushion the blow of the Global Financial Crisis for New Zealand, given Australia is our largest trading partner.

Meanwhile in London, the British Bankers Association has pulled back from endorsing the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), which is used as the base for trillions of dollars of debt contracts globally. See more here at Bloomberg.

This followed concerns the group of banks who set the rate were colluding to set the best rate for them. A review of LIBOR will now be held and it's possible it will be set in future by a regulator, rather than the banks themselves.

Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the official cash rate on hold at 2.5% at 9 am. Borrowers and savers alike will be looking closely for any indication of when that rate is likely to rise. Bank economists are predicting the Reserve Bank will wait until December at the earliest, while the NZIER sees no rate hike until early 2013.

Watch our site after 9 am for all the latest coverage.

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14 Comments

by Sepherial | 8th Mar 12, 8:48am 1331149700

panem et circenses

lol

Hegelian Dialectic

by scarfie | 8th Mar 12, 9:03am 1331150618

I finally got to read slide rule a couple of months back and in it Neville Shute describes how he can completely understand the mind of a suicide pilot. He was scheduled to head off the the trenches in WW1 you see, as were most young men. The deal toll was no secret and most young men had resigned themselves to dying in the trenches, a certain death if you like. It is only a small step from there to giving your death more meaning through a suicide mission. Only works in your context though.

Interestingly there are religious groups that refuse outright to have allegiance to any state or symbol of that state.

by scarfie | 8th Mar 12, 9:07am 1331150869

A question to consider:

In recent decades have you ever known a situation where there was rhetoric from the USA about going to war, or sanctions etc, but war never eventuated?

I say recent decades because I can only consider my first hand memory of events.

by skudiv | 8th Mar 12, 4:20pm 1331176840

The cold war? Several times Iran, North Korea, Cuba, do they fit the discription?

by scarfie | 8th Mar 12, 5:46pm 1331182002

Cuba would be the only one where war was seriously in the mix surely? Pretty damn close to it by all accounts. Also quite different because it was Russia not Cuba, and would have been all out war not a periphery battle such as Vietnam.

Not sure there has been the same degree of rhetoric with North Korea or with Iran. Israel hasn't been a participant either, although they have had their own wars and the same question could be asked of them.

by alex | 8th Mar 12, 9:32am 1331152332

BH,is the story about the largest city in NZ being audited by one of their expensive "suppliers" a reflection on the slackness of the NZ financial scene,or a credit to our "trusting nature".Then of course it could be our stupidity.

by goNZ | 8th Mar 12, 10:03am 1331154210

whats Winipeters on about yesty in Pmint gen debate about Yarrows collapse? he cant be sued due Parliment Priv but it sounded pretty dodgy...

by scarfie | 8th Mar 12, 10:04am 1331154241

Stratfor on China. Although they are American's writing from an American perspective.

by skudiv | 8th Mar 12, 11:09am 1331158164

The LTRO collateral is subject to margin calls, the amount of margin related collateral at the ECB has shot up to the stratosphere. This is not good, because the purpose of the LTRO was to inject liquidity, it seems to acting like a sponge. It's all looking a bit strange, why is the ECB placing all it's mars bar wrappers on margin call? This isn't helping anyone.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ltro-scratching-surface

by Wolly | 8th Mar 12, 12:57pm 1331164667

"A report yesterday turned the screws further on the state sector, saying as much as a quarter of administrative and support budgets - $450 million - could be lopped off if all departments performed as well as the most efficient ones.

But the Treasury's second Administrative and Support Services Benchmarking Report has been labelled "overambitious" by the Public Service Association (PSA), which said emerging pressure on front line services showed there was little fat left to cut".herald.

And which govt dept has managed to remain FAT....why Treasury of course....that fattest of the fat.

by Wolly | 8th Mar 12, 2:05pm 1331168746

The uncomfortable truth about the NZ economy:

It is in the hands of the credit creation parasites. Serfdom is the guaranteed future for the vast majority of residents. It will remain a benefit dependent nation forever going cap in hand to the bigger overseas parasites for loans. Neither this govt nor any to follow will be able to change this state of reality..this new normal.

So when next you walk past a bank on route to winz or the payday loan shark ...remember to doff you hat...and ask if they want any more of your modest low income.

by Wolly | 8th Mar 12, 2:22pm 1331169737

"A new prison announced today could cost the Government up to $900 million over the next 25 years." tvnz

And based on current trends, taking into account the blather about the population growing to 15 million by 2050, we will need several dozen, new prisons, in addition to the current ones by then.

Hey think of the GDP boost that will bring....saved by the criminal element...a job for everyone building jails to house those not building jails.

by Wolly | 8th Mar 12, 4:22pm 1331176926

"A major restructure of the NZ Defence Force has seen 655 fewer roles in less than two years, staff morale at an all-time low and a major challenge to keep the quality staff they have left, Defence bosses say" herald

This is terrible...we need more wars more conflict and ...oh yeah...MORE MONEY

Hows about we follow the Fiji lead and hire out the troops for fat fees.

by nzinvestor | 8th Mar 12, 10:44pm 1331199882

Re OCR - when will it rise?

First it will drop late 2012 or early 2013

Unlikely to rise again until at least 2014