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90 seconds at 9 am: Merkel wins; Dutch voting; Fed expected to deliver QE3; China and India sag; banker bags commissions; SA army on alert; MPS next

90 seconds at 9 am: Merkel wins; Dutch voting; Fed expected to deliver QE3; China and India sag; banker bags commissions; SA army on alert; MPS next

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news Germany's highest court has removed a major obstacle to the current strategy to deal with the eurozone crisis and this was greeted with relief by both politicians and investors. It justified the earlier market assumptions, so there has been little reaction to the actual decision.

There were conditions, but these were also as expected; the major one being that Germany must keep its effective veto over the proceedings. Overall its a clear-cut win for Angela Merkel, but curiously it does not help Germany's allies. There is an election in Holland in its final stages, and the Dutch are left feeling like a German province. However, a euro-frendly coalition is expected to scrape home in that race whose outcome we will know later today.

Markets now turn their attention to the US Fed and their QE decisions. We will know that tomorrow, but it does seem markets expect QEIII and failure to deliver will be greeted negatively. Meanwhile, oil fell as inventories unexpectedly rose, the Dow is shedding gains near the close, and Americans are reportedly to be getting more optimistic about the direction of their country.

Elsewhere, both China and India are reporting flat or pessimistic market outlooks. In Britain, the new Barclays chairman says banks - and presumably including his - must stop paying staff commissions on sales. He looks like a crusty throwback to me, but this view is a refreshing one going to the heart of what has been troubling customers and their trust in banks.

In China, the political situation gets murkier, with the usual denials absent over the turmoil in the leadership change. In South Africa, serious turmoil is brewing there also with the army put on "high alert".

But back here, we will see the final chapter in the reign of Alan Bollard at the RBNZ today. Bernard Hickey is at the Monetary Policy Statement and will be reporting in soon.

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7 Comments

This comment is slightly off topic but  it needs to be aired asap...

Re: The calls to sack J Banks .. ratbag

I totally agree with the calls to get rid of this venal liar- there is no way on earth that Key should be able to justify retaining Banks in his cabinet and indeed The Speaker of the House should look to boot him out of parliament for deliberately misleading both the House and the Public not to mention seeking to frustrate the course of justice - If there was anything close to a genuine sense of morality in our current politcal system the PM would not hesitate to cut him free but I dont believe for a momnent that Key has the required fortitude for doing the right thing!!!

 

 

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FOMC Statement  at 4:15 am Friday NZT
Federal Funds Rate at 4:15 am Friday NZT
 

Press Conference Thursday 2:15 pm NY time

Friday 4:15 am AEST

Friday 6:15 am NZT

 

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Before he completely sold out, Nelson Mandela said after his election to President that if the ANC government didn't improve the lives of its people they had the right to launch a counter revolution. White plutocracy replaced with a black/white plutocracy. Even John Minto has turned against the ANC :)

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Hey, the sharemarkets are rising. Does that mean they are in a bubble like property?

Guess which bubble will bust first?

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MikeB - both.

 

Both are folk not knowing where to go, getting impatient, and figuring it's gonna take off.

 

It ain't goin nowhere.

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yes just about eveerything is a bubble, no where is safe, some ppl have been saying that for many months.

Well which share market and which property market?  The US housing market is supposed to be down 40%....yet the share market is up (again), dead cat bounce? yes I think so.

The possible difference is that the banks have heaps of fed money and have to put it somewhere, that somewhere is the US share market (for one).  At the same time thats forcing investors to come out and gamble.....really I think the Fed is successfully running a ponzi scheme.

but you know GBH must be right and bye!....bye!!!!   BYE!!!!!

"Guess" that is a very good Q.

The share market can certianly burst fast....all the microsecond ultra-fast trading ensures that when a bank pulls the plug it will be over in hours if not minutes....unlike 1929.

I suspect it will be the share market first as investors run for cover from the bond market first off.  Really the PE ratio is massively OTT so once its clear the share value of companies in say the EU isnt going up relying on dividends is a no hoper, like a blood bath....its going to be interesting to watch.

I follow Nicole Foss, she thinks it will be a financial crisis first off, as thats the fastest and closest........

regards

 

 

 

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Or a good time to sell hard assets for cash and wait for the depression/deflation.

regards

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