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90 seconds at 9 am: Athens riots; IMF cuts growth expectations, but positive about New Zealand; China injects cash; US deleverages; commodities higher; NZ$ stable

90 seconds at 9 am: Athens riots; IMF cuts growth expectations, but positive about New Zealand; China injects cash; US deleverages; commodities higher; NZ$ stable

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news that Greek police fired teargas and stun grenades at protesters in central Athens when they tried to break through a barrier and reach visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Her visit is somewhat pointless and inflamatory as no new decisions about the next stage of debt support are now likely to be made until next month at the earliest.

The IMF cut its global growth forecasts as the euro area’s debt crisis intensifies and warned of even slower expansion unless officials in the US and Europe address threats to their economies.

The IMF is downbeat about the Australian prospects, but realtively upbeat about New Zealand. It forecasts growth here at 2.2% this year rising to 3.1% next year, although it sees the current account deficit rise to 5.9% next year, going to a 6.9% deficit by 2017. Still that is still well below the 7.9% we had in 2005 and 8.8% in 2008. They don't see inflation rising much above where it is now.

In China yesterday, its central bank injected US$42 billion into their money market - its second-biggest daily injection ever - as it extended efforts to bolster a slowing economy.

In the US there is some encouraging debt deleveraging news - debt there has shrunk to a six-year low relative to the size of the economy as homeowners, cities and companies cut borrowing. This progress will help their recovery.

But stocks slid in late trade amid expected disappointing US corporate earnings and the IMF report. A sharp rise in the price of oil led commodities higher as Mideast tensions flared, while Treasuries rose. We had a fall in petrol prices yesterday here, but that could be short-lived.

The NZ$1 starts today at US$0.817 and the TWI is just above 73.

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5 Comments

Auckland property bubble...bits of it anyway....might pay to read this:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.nz/2012/10/netherlands-house-price-crash-underway.html

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Yes, Hugh I think posted this yesterday....some big losses...and I assume those are not corrected for inflation so add 2% to those numbers...so 8% loss is really a 10% loss and next year a 5% loss is really a 7% loss.....

Since 2008 loss is 15% add in inflation at 2% per year so the real loss is 23%...add in next year's expected and it looks a lot like BH's 30% since 2008....

hmmmm cant happen here of course....no no no......buy buy! BUY!!!

regrads

 

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Wolly that's the main reason the Dutch Govt collapsed.

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Underestimating fiscal multipliers.  Pretty conclusive that austerity is counter-productive in money terms let alone the riots they produce.

http://fatasmihov.blogspot.com.au/2012/10/underestimating-fiscal-policy…

"The analysis in the current World Economic Outlook suggests that multipliers might be within the range 0.9 to 1.7"

So cut a $1 and you lose 90cents or maybe even as much as $1.70.

ho hum.

regards

 

 

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"Christchurch's rent prices continue to climb, with low supply and high demand leaving slim pickings for would-be tenants." the Press

No worries right...accommodation supplement ( landlords benefit) is there to be taken.

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