90 seconds at 9 am: World is flat

90 seconds at 9 am: No IMF money for Spain; income tax cuts in Italy; US Beige Book; Alcoa gloomy; NZ$ stable

11th Oct 12, 8:57am by David Chaston

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news that the IMF says it will help Spain but that help need not include any loans.

The IMF was also critical of euro-zone politicians for failing to make progress in euro integration.

In Italy overnight, prime minister Monti announceed VAT rises and a surprise income tax cut for low income earners. He said they had the space to 'reward ourselves a little'.

Standard & Poor's has said that there is a significant chance it could cut India's credit rating - a move that would relegate that nation's debt to junk territory - despite a series of recent policy steps aimed at improving the country's economy.

A few minutes ago, the US Fed released its latest Beige Book assessment of twelve key US regions in September. It found the US economy expanded 'modestly', manufacturing was 'somewhat improved', 'loan demand increased slightly', consumer spending 'flat to up slightly', price pressures were 'contained', and housing improved.

Certainly, this is no bullish assessment, but it is influential because it is very current, and underlines the issues US companies are having with earnings. Stocks in late trade are down 0.5% on the S&P500, down more on the Dow. Bellweather stock Alcoa released good results overnight, but warned they see tough times ahead. The US earnings season starts with Alcoa and their downbeat assessment of their prospects may set a trend.

The NZ$ is holding at 81.6 USc and 72.9 on the TWI, levels it has been broadly at since early August.

No chart with that title exists.

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8 Comments

by Poission | 11th Oct 12, 9:08am 1349899684

Eleven EU countries agree on financial transaction tax,

by Andrewj | 11th Oct 12, 9:52am 1349902370

Why are we bailing out the banks? Part two. Theory, Ideology and Failure.

http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/10/why-are-we-bailing-out-the-banks-part…

by scarfie | 11th Oct 12, 1:46pm 1349916419

Great bit of writing. He breaks it down step by step using basic logic. So I will try to apply some more.

The question of how you stimulate growth still isn't answered, we just know what has been tried hasn't worked. So how about putting this angle on it, define what growth is first. I would suggest that growth is the consumption of resources this year greater than it was last year. So putting aside peak resources as an issue, the question becomes if you want to consume more resources then how are you best placed to go about that. Surely the answer would be that you can't compel the private sector to do this, throwing money at them is just as likely to result in hoarding. So public works is the obvious way.

I think this can be further explained by the debt saturation issue mentioned in the article. If the free market knows best then surely it is well aware of the debt ceiling having been reached. They would be sensible to hoard in this scenario. Again public works projects would circumvent the debt issue. It would be even better if done ala Iain Parkers' public credit.

Don't take this as me supporting the system, just applying my logic to it.

by scarfie | 11th Oct 12, 10:14am 1349903677

Great title David. Reminds me of a fallacious comment I saw from Don Brash a couple of days ago where he wrote off Aristotle as a credible source on the basis that he probably thought the earth was flat.

Here is a very interesting US appeal court decision around what exactly money is.

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/is-legal-tender-next/88019/

by Gold Kiwi | 11th Oct 12, 10:33am 1349904782

Have you been reading Jim Sinclair's Mineset, scarfie? :-)

by scarfie | 11th Oct 12, 10:18am 1349903912

I don't know if anyone read the link I posted to statfor.com a few months back where George Friedman was just about to don the kevlar, grab an AR-15 and lead the charge into Iran himself. But the man has just done a 180° turn now. He loses a bit of credibility now in my books.

by Ralph | 11th Oct 12, 11:21am 1349907707

In Italy overnight, prime minister Monti announceed VAT rises and a surprise income tax cut for low income earners. He said they had the space to 'reward ourselves a little'.

He's smart man that Mr Monti. Better to be in the lifeboat together than torn apart by some misguided sense of entitlement.

by Christov | 11th Oct 12, 2:16pm 1349918216

Matador....confident he's never going to be the one gored by the Bull....!

N that's quite some bull trotting out there.