Obama votes early as Romney edges ahead in latest poll 11 days from election; UK GDP up 1% in Sept qtr; Top 100 NZ tech firms grow exports to NZ$5.2 bln
Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news Republican candidate Mitt Romney has taken a slight lead for the first time in the latest opinion poll.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Romney ahead of President Barack Obama by 1%. Obama is due to lodge an early vote for himself later today to highlight the ability for Democrat voters to vote early (but not often).
If Romney were to win the November 6 election, he has pledged to tighten US government spending to try to reduce its deficit and debt, but many worry this will drive America back into recession. A President Romney is also likely to change the US Federal Reserve Chairman, throwing into doubt its plan for unlimited money printing and zero interest rates until mid 2015.
Meanwhile, CEOs from 80 large companies called on the US government to cut a deficit deal to avoid the 'Fiscal Cliff', which is a series of automatic spending cuts and tax increases that is forecast to reduce US GDP by as much as 4% from the end of the year. See more here at Reuters.
US stocks were broadly flat in late trade and the New Zealand dollar was mostly unchanged overnight, having risen around 1 USc yesterday after Graeme Wheeler made his first decision as Reserve Bank Governor. The commentary in the decision to hold rates was widely seen as slightly more hawkish than Alan Bollard.
Elsewhere, UK GDP grew 1% in the September quarter because of the Olympics.
In New Zealand, the Technology Investment Network released its annual TIN 100 report showing New Zealand's 100 biggest technology export companies grew exports 2.3% to NZ$5.18 billion in the last year, meaning technology exports are now a close third to meat at number 2 and Dairy at number 1. See more here in the summary of the TIN 100 report and the rankings of the Top 20 and the 10 fastest growth companies.
(Updated with TIN 100 links)
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62 Comments
Kiwis wanting to fly the coop , and head off overseas for any length of time ....
... the high $NZ helps enormously ....
More so if you sell your ridiculously overpriced house or farm in NZ .... and take the loot with you overseas ....
...only to return to NZ in 3 or 5 years time when the property bubble has collapsed , and the $NZ has slumped alongside it .... and then you buy 2, 3 or 4 houses for the net cost of your previous one ..
Well obviously importers of cheap Chinese junk OMG_WTF, obviously the purchasers thereof, and the local tip recycles.
That said , it's not so much a deliberation on the part of importers etc, but a byproduct of cheap offshore borrowing by all in sundry largely divested into property.
FX basket pairings play their part but probably only in the top five to ten cent range , long positions on high NZD are favoured.
Only in Ostralia : We have a brand spanking new state of the art tax , which toppled a prime minister ( Kevin Rudd ) , split the mining industry , and led to the withdrawal of investment worth of tens of billions of dollars from the mining industry , and the costs of many thousands of jobs ..... and it hasn't raised a single cent , not one penny , in it's first three months ....
..... and it's total failure has led to a mid-year re-boot of the budget , after just 90 days .... leading to a de-bootie of second and third babies .... we're making up the shortfall of nearly a billion dollars in the super-profits -mining tax by taking it out of the baby bonus !
Unfortunately , we've already spent the money ..... the $A 3.75 billion expected annually from the MRRT has been splurged on middleclass welfare , universal entitlement for school age kids back-to-school uniforms , stationary and computer allowances ......
..... well , fair do's to treasurer Wayne Swan , it's much easier to mug a newborn baby of it's cradle than to pinch an iPad off an 11 year old ...
Banksia Finanincial Group has filed for bankruptcy in Melbourne , Ostralia ...
..... 3000 investors are owed $A 650 million ... it appears that property and property financing are not as safe as houses , after all .... finance companies , huh , where would we be without them ...
The locals are terribly shocked by this bankruptcy announcement .....but I'm not , very sanguine about it in fact , one of the advantages of being a Kiwi .... .... experience !
I'd be curious to see the median sized investment in that firm , as I suspect the average figger is skewered upwards by a few institutional investors , super funds , and such ...
..... even so , one must shake one's head , some people never learn ... they risk 100 % of their capital for a measly few extra %'s of return ...
GBH: "Banksia Finanincial Group has filed for bankruptcy in Melbourne , Ostralia"
Where does it say that GBH?
According to information available, Banksia Securities have defaulted on its Trust Deed and the Trustees have called in the receivers, and, at the request of the Board of Directors have placed the company in receivership.
Bankruptcy is loosely defined as the liquidation of the assets of the company. Not sure that is the situation, JUST yet.
Banksia was not a big-city-slicker outfit. It was a rural operation serving rural farming communities. A bit along the lines of Alan.Hubbard.Holdings.Empire, except in this case the Trustees have acted independently and early.
Got me bang-to-rights yet again , " receivership " ..... not " bankruptcy " ....... all is well . Yup . Nothing to worry about ........
" Thousands have their cash frozen after collapse of Banksia Financial Group " , Mark Dunn & John Dagge of the Herald Sun ...
..... just a collapse ..... whew ! ..... for a moment there , we were all worried that it was serious ...
My apologies for getting it wrong .
I am hoping Obama wins the elections. I think for greater stability and trying to fix the US situation you need two terms. Bringing in Romney will cause even more money printing and greater confrontation overseas. Meanwhile in Europe this time its not the bankers making the mistakes but the Government politicans that are creating the crisis and making terrible decisions which in my opinion will fall down at some point. With globalisation these days many spanish people will probably temporarily or permantly move to South America where they may go to a country with potentially 4% growth for 2013 than hang around waiting for things to improve in in Spain or Europe with high unemployment and poor political decision making.
With the garbage that has been coming out of some Republican mouths of late, (I would hate to think what they have managed NOT to say, and I include the mutt there as well) that there wouldn't be a solitary woman, bar Romney's wife, who would vote Republican, but then I probably am grossly underestimating the crazy that is the US
God loves a rapist aparently GBH...I mean how thick would you have to be , to stand at a podium and state God intended for it to happen.
He has since revised the staement to God loves the progeny of the act not the act.
Mutt has leaped to put distance between them after running a series of adds to endorse him......... Mourdock the Moron.
Yet despite this and other fubars Romney is close to Obama in the polls it seems. One wonders what it will take to get some ppl to not vote like the lemmings they appear to be.
When that does happen of course the result is the likes of Hitler....an extreme swing to say the least.
regards
Well I do watch the debates Colin...and have more than a passing interest in U.S. global affairs...
Are you saying Mourdock's statement was out of context,,,? shall I youtube it for you..?
God n Politics don't mix any better than Allah n politics......however Hypocracy God n Politics seems to be the entrenched mix.
We agree on that Colin, but I'd be more comfortable about his ilk being stomped out of the general assembly altogether, he went public on zealot thinking.....that type of thinking affects outcomes on many levels during voting sessions.
Let me observe , if the swing vote amongst women was still undecided, I'll bet he did a lot to help them come to a decision.
My problem with Romney and most American political leaders is their mixing religion and military muscle to create first Manifest Destiny (help yourself to a third of Mexico and much of Central America) morphing into American Exceptionalism (god given right to help yourself to the rest of the world). Not a lot of difference as far as I can see between spreading American democracy and free markets (read US corporate interests) via the US military and Jihadists wanting to spread Islam by terrorism. Both consider the ends justify the means.
Yes Bernard as in realised funds returning to N.Z....would be good to see the actuals.
I know of a few tech development firms obtained the R and D's funding from Australian and American interests....sooooo I imagine they'll have a good slice in that pie going forward.
ta Bernard , almost embarrassed I had not already, but I was off , having a lark with GBH.
what are your thoughts...soil or dirt....? for more it's over at the RBNZ thread...perplexing..!
BTW good on you again for giving it to the Governor...yes I liked it , liked it a lot.
Where is this link you speak of.....? less embarrassing for me if not there to reference.
Psssst , Count .... wot link ? ..... meebee it's an Australian thing ( 'like dirt is , or playing dirty ) , but Gummy can't see the link to the top 100 Tech companies' earnings .... but don't tell Bernard that , 'cos sometimes I reckon he finks I is quite fick ....
" The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen all at once " , Albie E.
I don't mind having a lark , not at all .... they're really quite crunchy if roasted well ....soy sauce , some garlic and galangal ....
I'm sorry Gummy.
I put the link in the first version, which crashed and I had to madly reconstruct it at 9 am.
Then the Wheeler speech arrived and I forgot to update it.
Here we go. Some great news stories here.
In New Zealand, the Technology Investment Network released its annual TIN 100 report showing New Zealand's 100 biggest technology export companies grew exports 2.3% to NZ$5.18 billion in the last year, meaning technology exports are now a close third to meat at number 2 and Dairy at number 1. See more here in the summary of the TIN 100 report and the rankings of the Top 20 and the 10 fastest growth companies.
I'm a 'fick' plonker. Sorry.
cheers
Bernard
F & P Appliances ( $NZ 1038 million ) and F & P Medical ( $NZ 517 million ) together account for a whopping 30 % of the total tech revenue !
..... nevertheless , there are some interesting companies on that list .... one drools in anticipation of the day some of them list on the NZX .... and we can participate in their future ...
The list of ten fastest growth companies is rather daft , as it lists companies by gross revenue growth , not by % increase in revenue .... hence F & P Medical on just a 2 % growth , made the list ... with a $NZ 10 million revenue uptick ..
Well that's a smack in the face Bernard...I'm sorry Gummy...? fair enough but I believe I had asked the question of you already....!!
You didn't bloody read it did you...! well I shall re-evaluate my long service status...David you can keep your medal... and Walter's too...hrrrumph!
Your David Beckham impression needs work...I fink I might be a fick plonker Victoria......No your not David, your a bit bent is all.
Most chefs would tell you the same thing , Count ..... old Albie wasn't so smart in the kitchen ..... but he did have an excellent riposte when his wife told him to change into some decent clothes , because the German ambassador was coming :
..... " Do they come to see me , or to see my clothes .... if it is the latter , it would be simplest for you to open the door of my clothes closet to them .. .. "
Good plan Christov. I am hoping that New Zealand will ride out the storm with our Food Products and I am still bullish on soft commodities even if the next 6 - 9 months will be a bit rough. You are right Christov with the high exchange rate we may still be inundated with Chinese junk ready for landfil or recycled to send back overseas. I think more people are trying to find some old stuff on trade me that is better quality than what we buy today that lasts.
gas shale a ponzi scheme pumped up by the banks with cheap Fed money? can we say "pop".....
"large Wall Street investment banks were only too willing to help…for a fee."
8><----
"The banks often used their sell side equity analysts to promote the stocks of shale companies rating them a buy and frothing the average investor into a buying frenzy by touting the perceived merits of shale."
8><-----
"the bankers began suggesting creative financing techniques and machinations…for a fee, of course.
Extensive financing moved off balance sheet at some of the companies so it was becoming harder for the average investor to get a good picture of what the company’s balance sheet really looked like."
8><-----
"Behind the scenes, they are crafting deals to spin the shale companies into the arms of the Majors…for a fee"
musical chairs, whos beiing left with the empty "assets" I wonder...LOL
http://energypolicyforum.org/2012/10/23/financial-co-dependency-how-wal…
regards
The American presidential elections are decided not decided on a nationwide popular vote so such polls are pretty meaningless. The elections are decided by state by state cumulative totals.
There are basically two narratives of the election at this point. One, coming from the republican pundits, is that Romney has been on a continous, increasing surge since the first debate. The other is the narrative of the hard numbers poll anlysis people which is that Romney had a bried burst of populatrity after the first debate, but that increase has not kept going.
The best example of a hard numbers site is http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
538 has over the past few weeks been showing Obama's chance of victory creaping up from just below 70% to just above 70%. As they have been right about the result of the past few elections (unlike the partisan pundits talking up they candidates and the media latching onto stroys that make the race more dramatic) I would tend to go with what the numbers have consistently been saying: Obama president, democratic contolled senate, republican controlled house (so everything basically unchanged).
and actually looking at today's 538 post, I see he expressly discussed the poll mentioned in the 90 seconds at 9
"Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls."
Considering that the real winners of any US election are the media and polling companies, it's no surprise that they rabidly promote a tight race.
And the President is merely a figurehead.....the real power is with the large voting blocs in senate and congress and their masters on K Street.....
The funding power was deliberately given to Congress to keep the Presidency in check. Only Congress can declare war but the President can commit US forces for up to 30 days before going to Congress for approval/funding eg Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. Once forces are in the field the old patriotic fervour kicks in and it is rare for Presidents to be rebuked (unless the US forces aren't doing well and they feel the US is being embarrassed!)
Many Presidents have been adept at creating secret slush funds covert action outside Congressional oversight although sometimes like Iran/Contra, the mining of Nicaragua's ports or the secret bombing of Laos they get publicly exposed.
President can sign treaties and trade agreements but they need Congressional approval to come into force.
Romney for instance, if elected, could launch an all out air war against Iran over a couple of weeks and not have to consult Congress. Land based action like the Iraqi War is more difficult because of the long build up that would exceed the 30 day time frame.
While he could send in the tomahawks I think iran could then send out its power boats with mines and anti-shipping missiles (exocet? indiginious?). I think the flight time is 6mins or so. Small and fast and numerious wee boats, you cant sink them all....also they have several small 4 man subs which would be hard to find and sink in those shallow waters....bye bye the strait of hormuz, un-insurable for tankers (act of war), and no crews, bye bye 17mbpd oil, hello $8+ a litre petrol if you can get it, bye bye world economy.
If he's building up though thats not an actual fight or invasion on foreign soil so I dont think the 30days includes a deployment?
Though if he has a republican congress I dont see it as an issue....tally ho!!!
regards
Americans well aware of that. A few years ago a US naval commander playing the part of Iran sank a US carrier group in a simulation with swarms of hundreds of small boats. Iran also have a number of Russian Sunburn anti ship missiles designed to destroy US carriers and cruisers. They've never been used in combat anywhere. I'm sure the Russians and Chinese (who also have them) would be very interested to see how they go against the US Navy.
Any US President who launched an attack on Iran but lost a large ship(s) like a carrier would come under huge pressure. Neither Congress or the public are forgiving of military losses. As you say, the economic and environmental cost of large tanker sinkings would be astronomical. High stakes.
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