90 seconds at 9 am: Romney ahead

90 seconds at 9 am: Obama votes early as Romney edges ahead in latest poll 11 days from election; UK GDP up 1% in Sept qtr; Top 100 NZ tech firms grow exports to NZ$5.2 bln

26th Oct 12, 9:04am by Bernard Hickey

Obama votes early as Romney edges ahead in latest poll 11 days from election; UK GDP up 1% in Sept qtr; Top 100 NZ tech firms grow exports to NZ$5.2 bln

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news Republican candidate Mitt Romney has taken a slight lead for the first time in the latest opinion poll.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Romney ahead of President Barack Obama by 1%. Obama is due to lodge an early vote for himself later today to highlight the ability for Democrat voters to vote early (but not often).

See more here at Reuters.

If Romney were to win the November 6 election, he has pledged to tighten US government spending to try to reduce its deficit and debt, but many worry this will drive America back into recession. A President Romney is also likely to change the US Federal Reserve Chairman, throwing into doubt its plan for unlimited money printing and zero interest rates until mid 2015.

Meanwhile, CEOs from 80 large companies called on the US government to cut a deficit deal to avoid the 'Fiscal Cliff', which is a series of automatic spending cuts and tax increases that is forecast to reduce US GDP by as much as 4% from the end of the year. See more here at Reuters.

US stocks were broadly flat in late trade and the New Zealand dollar was mostly unchanged overnight, having risen around 1 USc yesterday after Graeme Wheeler made his first decision as Reserve Bank Governor. The commentary in the decision to hold rates was widely seen as slightly more hawkish than Alan Bollard.

Elsewhere, UK GDP grew 1% in the September quarter because of the Olympics.

In New Zealand, the Technology Investment Network released its annual TIN 100 report showing New Zealand's 100 biggest technology export companies grew exports 2.3% to NZ$5.18 billion in the last year, meaning technology exports are now a close third to meat at number 2 and Dairy at number 1. See more here in the summary of the TIN 100 report and the rankings of the Top 20 and the 10 fastest growth companies.

(Updated with TIN 100 links)

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62 Comments

by OMG_WTF | 26th Oct 12, 9:28am 1351196932

Who most benefits from the high NZ$? Trying to follow the money ( a serious question).

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 10:28am 1351200524

Kiwis wanting to fly the coop , and head off overseas for any length of time ....

... the high $NZ helps enormously ....

More so if you sell your ridiculously overpriced house or farm in NZ .... and take the loot with you overseas ....

...only to return to NZ in 3 or 5 years time when the property bubble has collapsed , and the $NZ has slumped alongside it .... and then you buy 2, 3 or 4 houses for the net cost of your previous one ..

by OMG_WTF | 26th Oct 12, 9:29am 1351196982

Who most benefits from the high NZ$? Trying to follow the money ( a serious question).

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 10:09am 1351199358

Well obviously importers of cheap Chinese junk OMG_WTF, obviously the purchasers thereof, and the local tip recycles.

That said , it's not so much a deliberation on the part of importers etc, but a byproduct of cheap offshore borrowing by all in sundry largely divested into property.

FX basket pairings play their part but probably only in the top five to ten cent range , long positions on high NZD are favoured.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 9:55am 1351198522

Only in Ostralia : We have a brand spanking new state of the art tax , which toppled a prime minister ( Kevin Rudd ) , split the mining industry , and led to the withdrawal of investment worth of tens of billions of dollars from the mining industry , and the costs of many thousands of jobs ..... and it hasn't raised a single cent , not one penny , in it's first three months ....

..... and it's total failure has led to a mid-year re-boot of the budget , after just 90 days .... leading to a de-bootie of second and third babies .... we're making up the shortfall of nearly a billion dollars in the super-profits -mining tax by taking it out of the baby bonus !

Unfortunately , we've already spent the money ..... the $A 3.75 billion expected annually from the MRRT has been splurged on middleclass welfare , universal entitlement for school age kids back-to-school uniforms , stationary and computer allowances ......

..... well , fair do's to treasurer Wayne Swan , it's much easier to mug a newborn baby of it's cradle than to pinch an iPad off an 11 year old ...

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 10:38am 1351201124

Banksia Finanincial Group has filed for bankruptcy in Melbourne , Ostralia ...

..... 3000 investors are owed $A 650 million ... it appears that property and property financing are not as safe as houses , after all .... finance companies , huh , where would we be without them ...

The locals are terribly shocked by this bankruptcy announcement .....but I'm not , very sanguine about it in fact , one of the advantages of being a Kiwi .... .... experience !

by Andy Rodgers | 26th Oct 12, 2:26pm 1351214787

Hi GBH - That means that the average Banksia client has approx. $216,000 invested. I bet there anxious!

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 2:30pm 1351215055

I'd be curious to see the median sized investment in that firm , as I suspect the average figger is skewered upwards by a few institutional investors , super funds , and such ...

..... even so , one must shake one's head , some people never learn ... they risk 100 % of their capital for a measly few extra %'s of return ...

by iconoclast | 26th Oct 12, 3:02pm 1351216954

GBH: "Banksia Finanincial Group has filed for bankruptcy in Melbourne , Ostralia"

Where does it say that GBH?

According to information available, Banksia Securities have defaulted on its Trust Deed and the Trustees have called in the receivers, and, at the request of the Board of Directors have placed the company in receivership.

Bankruptcy is loosely defined as the liquidation of the assets of the company. Not sure that is the situation, JUST yet.

Banksia was not a big-city-slicker outfit. It was a rural operation serving rural farming communities. A bit along the lines of Alan.Hubbard.Holdings.Empire, except in this case the Trustees have acted independently and early.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 3:17pm 1351217820

Got me bang-to-rights yet again , " receivership " ..... not " bankruptcy " ....... all is well . Yup . Nothing to worry about ........

" Thousands have their cash frozen after collapse of Banksia Financial Group " , Mark Dunn & John Dagge of the Herald Sun ...

..... just a collapse ..... whew ! ..... for a moment there , we were all worried that it was serious ...

My apologies for getting it wrong .

by OMG_WTF | 26th Oct 12, 10:39am 1351201183

Re: high NZ$

Benefits trucking co contributors to Nats by suppressing fuel cost (and trolls in cars also), keeps them happy with lower cost plasma TVs. Who else?

by starfish1 | 26th Oct 12, 10:43am 1351201384

I am hoping Obama wins the elections. I think for greater stability and trying to fix the US situation you need two terms. Bringing in Romney will cause even more money printing and greater confrontation overseas. Meanwhile in Europe this time its not the bankers making the mistakes but the Government politicans that are creating the crisis and making terrible decisions which in my opinion will fall down at some point. With globalisation these days many spanish people will probably temporarily or permantly move to South America where they may go to a country with potentially 4% growth for 2013 than hang around waiting for things to improve in in Spain or Europe with high unemployment and poor political decision making.

by raegun | 26th Oct 12, 11:49am 1351205348

With the garbage that has been coming out of some Republican mouths of late, (I would hate to think what they have managed NOT to say, and I include the mutt there as well) that there wouldn't be a solitary woman, bar Romney's wife, who would vote Republican, but then I probably am grossly underestimating the crazy that is the US

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 10:50am 1351201816

We all are starfish1, but I've made an appointment with a couple of Mormons just in case..!

I think maybe Mitt thinks he can put a lot of people back to work in the Arms Industry, getting ready to do God's work , you know that kind of thing.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 11:09am 1351202992

..... another of Romney's mutton-heads has come out and said you're doing God's work if you make babies , even without the ovary-owner's consent !

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 11:16am 1351203376

God loves a rapist aparently GBH...I mean how thick would you have to be , to stand at a podium and state God intended for it to happen.

He has since revised the staement to God loves the progeny of the act not the act.

Mutt has leaped to put distance between them after running a series of adds to endorse him......... Mourdock the Moron.

by steven | 26th Oct 12, 11:35am 1351204537

Yet despite this and other fubars Romney is close to Obama in the polls it seems. One wonders what it will take to get some ppl to not vote like the lemmings they appear to be.

When that does happen of course the result is the likes of Hitler....an extreme swing to say the least.

regards

by Colin | 26th Oct 12, 11:29am 1351204197

Its sad to see these poorly informed comments about Romney and the US however NZers are great at readying headlines which suit their narrative

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 11:46am 1351205219

Well I do watch the debates Colin...and have more than a passing interest in U.S. global affairs...

Are you saying Mourdock's statement was out of context,,,? shall I youtube it for you..?

God n Politics don't mix any better than Allah n politics......however Hypocracy God n Politics seems to be the entrenched mix.

by Colin | 26th Oct 12, 11:53am 1351205588

Christov Mourdock is one man not a party or a country

by iconoclast | 26th Oct 12, 12:08pm 1351206485

One man Colin? You must have a short memory. Have you forgotten Todd Akin already. He's all for "legitimate rape". Seems to be a part of THE manifesto.

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 12:11pm 1351206717

We agree on that Colin, but I'd be more comfortable about his ilk being stomped out of the general assembly altogether, he went public on zealot thinking.....that type of thinking affects outcomes on many levels during voting sessions.

Let me observe , if the swing vote amongst women was still undecided, I'll bet he did a lot to help them come to a decision.

by wtf | 26th Oct 12, 12:10pm 1351206613

My problem with Romney and most American political leaders is their mixing religion and military muscle to create first Manifest Destiny (help yourself to a third of Mexico and much of Central America) morphing into American Exceptionalism (god given right to help yourself to the rest of the world). Not a lot of difference as far as I can see between spreading American democracy and free markets (read US corporate interests) via the US military and Jihadists wanting to spread Islam by terrorism. Both consider the ends justify the means.

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 12:13pm 1351206824

awful lot of truth in that WTF....sadly.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 11:06am 1351202761

Bernard have you got any more to add to that line that Top 100 tech firms add $NZ 5.2 billion to exports ?

...... some more detail please ...

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 11:11am 1351203073

Yes Bernard as in realised funds returning to N.Z....would be good to see the actuals.

I know of a few tech development firms obtained the R and D's funding from Australian and American interests....sooooo I imagine they'll have a good slice in that pie going forward.

by Bernard Hickey | 26th Oct 12, 6:04pm 1351227884

Gummy/ Christov

check out the link for more details

cheers

Bernard

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 6:52pm 1351230767

ta Bernard , almost embarrassed I had not already, but I was off , having a lark with GBH.

what are your thoughts...soil or dirt....? for more it's over at the RBNZ thread...perplexing..!

BTW good on you again for giving it to the Governor...yes I liked it , liked it a lot.

Where is this link you speak of.....? less embarrassing for me if not there to reference.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 7:02pm 1351231377

Psssst , Count .... wot link ? ..... meebee it's an Australian thing ( 'like dirt is , or playing dirty ) , but Gummy can't see the link to the top 100 Tech companies' earnings .... but don't tell Bernard that , 'cos sometimes I reckon he finks I is quite fick ....

" The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen all at once " , Albie E.

I don't mind having a lark , not at all .... they're really quite crunchy if roasted well ....soy sauce , some garlic and galangal ....

by Bernard Hickey | 26th Oct 12, 7:14pm 1351232098

I'm sorry Gummy.

I put the link in the first version, which crashed and I had to madly reconstruct it at 9 am.

Then the Wheeler speech arrived and I forgot to update it.

Here we go. Some great news stories here.

I'm a 'fick' plonker. Sorry.

cheers

Bernard

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 7:25pm 1351232755

Fank you for that , Bernard ...

..... " Everything should be made as simple as possible , but not simpler " ... Albert Einstein ....

Mummy Gummy should've read that before she made me !

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 7:47pm 1351234079

F & P Appliances ( $NZ 1038 million ) and F & P Medical ( $NZ 517 million ) together account for a whopping 30 % of the total tech revenue !

..... nevertheless , there are some interesting companies on that list .... one drools in anticipation of the day some of them list on the NZX .... and we can participate in their future ...

The list of ten fastest growth companies is rather daft , as it lists companies by gross revenue growth , not by % increase in revenue .... hence F & P Medical on just a 2 % growth , made the list ... with a $NZ 10 million revenue uptick ..

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 8:03pm 1351235038

Well that's a smack in the face Bernard...I'm sorry Gummy...? fair enough but I believe I had asked the question of you already....!!

You didn't bloody read it did you...! well I shall re-evaluate my long service status...David you can keep your medal... and Walter's too...hrrrumph!

Your David Beckham impression needs work...I fink I might be a fick plonker Victoria......No your not David, your a bit bent is all.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 8:12pm 1351235526

If it makes you any happier , Count , I'll let you keep dirt in your nappies ..... instead of soil ...

..... lord knows I soiled mine when I read that little lot ... lawdy lawdy , it was worth it ...

That's me Friday Funny done and dusted .... cheers !

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 8:02pm 1351234969

"The secret to creativity is knowing how to hide your sources." Albert E.

Bernard has demonstrated his creativity.....clearly.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 8:07pm 1351235237

Most chefs would tell you the same thing , Count ..... old Albie wasn't so smart in the kitchen ..... but he did have an excellent riposte when his wife told him to change into some decent clothes , because the German ambassador was coming :

..... " Do they come to see me , or to see my clothes .... if it is the latter , it would be simplest for you to open the door of my clothes closet to them .. .. "

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 8:13pm 1351235613

I shall relate that to the wife at the next opportunity GBH...Ta much !

Have a good one...I must away to the sister in laws to see her new couch and pass comment......

OH just kill me God..........shssh not really...Happiness Mon Ami.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 8:19pm 1351235975

" The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has it's limits " ....

...... d'yer reckon old Albie was a visionary , and that he spotted us two in the murky future ?

Couch Christening with the Sister-in-Law , huh ....... lucky you !

by starfish1 | 26th Oct 12, 11:19am 1351203586

Good plan Christov. I am hoping that New Zealand will ride out the storm with our Food Products and I am still bullish on soft commodities even if the next 6 - 9 months will be a bit rough. You are right Christov with the high exchange rate we may still be inundated with Chinese junk ready for landfil or recycled to send back overseas. I think more people are trying to find some old stuff on trade me that is better quality than what we buy today that lasts.

by steven | 26th Oct 12, 11:20am 1351203610

gas shale a ponzi scheme pumped up by the banks with cheap Fed money? can we say "pop".....

"large Wall Street investment banks were only too willing to help…for a fee."

8><----

"The banks often used their sell side equity analysts to promote the stocks of shale companies rating them a buy and frothing the average investor into a buying frenzy by touting the perceived merits of shale."

8><-----

"the bankers began suggesting creative financing techniques and machinations…for a fee, of course.

Extensive financing moved off balance sheet at some of the companies so it was becoming harder for the average investor to get a good picture of what the company’s balance sheet really looked like."

8><-----

"Behind the scenes, they are crafting deals to spin the shale companies into the arms of the Majors…for a fee"

musical chairs, whos beiing left with the empty "assets" I wonder...LOL

http://energypolicyforum.org/2012/10/23/financial-co-dependency-how-wal…

regards

by dh | 26th Oct 12, 11:25am 1351203937

The American presidential elections are decided not decided on a nationwide popular vote so such polls are pretty meaningless. The elections are decided by state by state cumulative totals.

There are basically two narratives of the election at this point. One, coming from the republican pundits, is that Romney has been on a continous, increasing surge since the first debate. The other is the narrative of the hard numbers poll anlysis people which is that Romney had a bried burst of populatrity after the first debate, but that increase has not kept going.

The best example of a hard numbers site is http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

538 has over the past few weeks been showing Obama's chance of victory creaping up from just below 70% to just above 70%. As they have been right about the result of the past few elections (unlike the partisan pundits talking up they candidates and the media latching onto stroys that make the race more dramatic) I would tend to go with what the numbers have consistently been saying: Obama president, democratic contolled senate, republican controlled house (so everything basically unchanged).

by Colin | 26th Oct 12, 11:35am 1351204553

If so another disaster money printing endless deficits gridlock

by steven | 26th Oct 12, 11:52am 1351205520

Either way, no real positive change....well except I strongly suspect Romney will cause an implosion....if he really heads for austerity and replaces Bernankie with a like minded stooge...

regards

by Colin | 26th Oct 12, 11:58am 1351205899

Steven I doubt Romney will cause an implosion however I think you know scale of the problems and the out come likely outcome. To just pretend they don't exist is not a strategy.

by Colin | 26th Oct 12, 11:58am 1351205899

Steven I doubt Romney will cause an implosion however I think you know scale of the problems and the out come likely outcome. To just pretend they don't exist is not a strategy.

by dh | 26th Oct 12, 11:37am 1351204624

and actually looking at today's 538 post, I see he expressly discussed the poll mentioned in the 90 seconds at 9

"Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls."

by Vanderlei Luxemburgo | 26th Oct 12, 1:22pm 1351210970

Considering that the real winners of any US election are the media and polling companies, it's no surprise that they rabidly promote a tight race.

And the President is merely a figurehead.....the real power is with the large voting blocs in senate and congress and their masters on K Street.....

by scarfie | 26th Oct 12, 2:38pm 1351215535

As I read once that the founding fathers deliberately created a system where the president would be weak in domestic policy but strong in foreign policy.

by steven | 26th Oct 12, 2:50pm 1351216223

A british PM actually weields far more power than a US President (its said). So the US system is based on 3 legs, congress, administration and legal...all designed to balance...

regards

by wtf | 26th Oct 12, 3:33pm 1351218790

The funding power was deliberately given to Congress to keep the Presidency in check. Only Congress can declare war but the President can commit US forces for up to 30 days before going to Congress for approval/funding eg Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. Once forces are in the field the old patriotic fervour kicks in and it is rare for Presidents to be rebuked (unless the US forces aren't doing well and they feel the US is being embarrassed!)

Many Presidents have been adept at creating secret slush funds covert action outside Congressional oversight although sometimes like Iran/Contra, the mining of Nicaragua's ports or the secret bombing of Laos they get publicly exposed.

President can sign treaties and trade agreements but they need Congressional approval to come into force.

Romney for instance, if elected, could launch an all out air war against Iran over a couple of weeks and not have to consult Congress. Land based action like the Iraqi War is more difficult because of the long build up that would exceed the 30 day time frame.

by steven | 26th Oct 12, 4:02pm 1351220525

While he could send in the tomahawks I think iran could then send out its power boats with mines and anti-shipping missiles (exocet? indiginious?). I think the flight time is 6mins or so. Small and fast and numerious wee boats, you cant sink them all....also they have several small 4 man subs which would be hard to find and sink in those shallow waters....bye bye the strait of hormuz, un-insurable for tankers (act of war), and no crews, bye bye 17mbpd oil, hello $8+ a litre petrol if you can get it, bye bye world economy.

If he's building up though thats not an actual fight or invasion on foreign soil so I dont think the 30days includes a deployment?

Though if he has a republican congress I dont see it as an issue....tally ho!!!

regards

by wtf | 26th Oct 12, 4:23pm 1351221821

Americans well aware of that. A few years ago a US naval commander playing the part of Iran sank a US carrier group in a simulation with swarms of hundreds of small boats. Iran also have a number of Russian Sunburn anti ship missiles designed to destroy US carriers and cruisers. They've never been used in combat anywhere. I'm sure the Russians and Chinese (who also have them) would be very interested to see how they go against the US Navy.

Any US President who launched an attack on Iran but lost a large ship(s) like a carrier would come under huge pressure. Neither Congress or the public are forgiving of military losses. As you say, the economic and environmental cost of large tanker sinkings would be astronomical. High stakes.

by steven | 26th Oct 12, 12:22pm 1351207371

Interesting thing is the trend....the step at the first? the tv event seems clear, yet we see a trend of a drop away again.

regards

by SK | 26th Oct 12, 11:38am 1351204735

UK bolts out of recession.

Party in Chelsea!

by Christov | 26th Oct 12, 11:49am 1351205383

Yes it seems the 1% had their say this Quarter SK....don't bust out the Bolly yet me ol buccko.

by SK | 26th Oct 12, 12:01pm 1351206087

Good timing for a Xmas visit to the friends in Belgravia perhaps.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 26th Oct 12, 2:23pm 1351214626

..... the only way to get into that suburb is on the gravia train ...

by SK | 26th Oct 12, 4:06pm 1351220796

It's funny cause it's true!

by SK | 26th Oct 12, 4:11pm 1351221084

Riding the belGRAVIA train, all the way to the black cod at Nobu.

(it's not really a train of course, barely 5minutes in the back of the Roller)

by steven | 26th Oct 12, 12:24pm 1351207446

No, I dont think so.....

regards

by starfish1 | 26th Oct 12, 12:40pm 1351208456

Agree I see downside to sterling. I am pretty sure they will have to print some more money at some point.

by iconoclast | 26th Oct 12, 6:12pm 1351228344

Notice how The New York Times has the time and patience to take the "long-handled-bat" to Granpa Wen Jaibao and his wealth, while wealthy multi-millionaire Mitt Romney who refuses to disclose his tax returns is conveniently left alone. Subtle.