National solidly over 50% in Roy Morgan and Ipsos polls; Labour in mid-low 20% range; Green support up

By Bernard Hickey

With 65 days left until the September 20 election, here's my daily round-up of the political and governmental news from in and around Wellington on Thursday, July 17, including the latest poll results from Roy Morgan and Stuff/Ipsos showing National polling solidly above 50% and Labour languishing in the mid-to-low 20s.

Roy Morgan's monthly opinion poll shows support for National rising back to 51% and support for Labour slumping 4.5% to 23.5%, its lowest level in the poll since just before the November 2011 election.

National rose 3% and support for the Green Party rose 3% to 15%, which was the highest since September last year.

Support for Conservative was unchanged at 1%, while Internet-Mana was down 1% at 1.5%. Maori Party support fell 0.5% to 1% and ACT fell 0.5% to 0.5%.

The fixed line and mobile phone poll of 819 voters was taken from June 30 to July 13 and released late on Wednesday. The poll found 5.5% did not name a party and the margin of error was around +-1.5% at the 95th percentile.

The Stuff/Ipsos poll released on Thursday morning showed support for National down 1.7% to 54.8%, while support for Labour rose by the same amount to 24.9%. Green support rose 0.4% to 12.4%, while New Zealand First fell 0.6% to 2.6%.

Mana, Maori and Conservative were grouped around 1%, while Act registered at 0.1% and United Future was at 0.2%. The telephone poll of 1,000 residents took place in July and the maximum sampling error was +-3.1% at the 95th percentile. The poll found 15.3% of voters had not decided who to vote for.

IPCA rejects Norman's complaints

The Independent Police Conduct Authority (IPCA has released a report rejecting complaints from Green Co-Leader Russel Norman over Police decisions not to prosecute the GCSB over its illegal surveillance on 88 people, as revealed in the Kitteridge report.

IPCA Chair Judge Sir David Carruthers said the Police were justified in not prosecuting.

"The Police decision not to prosecute was based squarely on an opinion provided by the Solicitor-General. Police were quite entitled to rely upon this advice, and indeed, having received the opinion it would have been surprising if they had proceeded on any other basis," he said.

He also ruled there was no conflict of interest in the appointment of Kristy McDonald to oversee the investigation and that the decision not to prosecute over collection of metadata was justified because the law was unclear over the collection of metadata.

Norman said the IPCA decision meant New Zealanders would never get justice in the GCSB spying saga.

"The report gives a green light for illegal spying because the system has set itself up to be impenetrable to inquiries for justice," he said.

Labour Associate Security and Intelligence spokesperson Grant Robertson said the IPCA reported showed the need for a full Inquiry into the spy agencies.

The Internet Party called for a Royal Commission into the GCSB.

Credit card 'boo-boo'

National List MP Claudette Hauiti, who replaced disgraced Aaron Gilmore, has apologised for what she said was a "big boo-boo" over her use of a parliamentary credit card to buy air tickets for a personal trip to Australia, the NZ Herald reported.

"Well, you know, big boo-boo. Paid it back, really sorry. There's no excuse for not knowing the Speaker's rules," she was quoted as saying on Prime TV's Backbenches programme.

Hauiti has since given back the card and is now claiming expenses after paying for the items.

(Updated with Hauiti's credit card drama, IPCA report)

I'll keep updating this through the day.

See all my previous election diaries here.

See the index for Interest.co.nz's special election policy comparison pages here.